016 - Tracking Astute submarines in 2022

PREFACE/ISSUE

In previous posts it was established that UK belongs among suspects. Capabilities of UK Special Boat Services team (SBS) were also explored. But where were Ambush class submarines during 2022?

"The hunt for the Ambush"

#1 - Attack submarines have typically regular deployment intervals.

They deploy for around two months at a time. Submarines can submerge more than 600 feet below the ocean's surface for up to four months at a time, constantly patrolling and working classified missions

#2 - Submarine crew rotation.

One of a submarine's two crews takes the sub- marine to sea for 77 days and then returns it to its home port. Both crews then perform maintenance on the submarine for a 35-day period, after which the second crew takes the submarine to sea for 77 days before returning it to the home port for further maintenance.

Submarine spotters and other sub news

2 March 2022 - Royal Navy divers create elite mission teams to meet evolving needs

7 March 2022 - Boris Johnson says we can’t close down use of Russian oil and gas overnight

5 May 2022 - A strange message to Boris Johnson and V. Zelenski appeared on Twitter on his timeline.

 

 29 April 2022 - First British Nuclear Submarine Docking in Tromsø - Ambush S120

29 March 2022 - Royal Marines launch commando raid from Astute class submarine during Arctic exercise (most likely RN HMS S120 Ambush).

Commodore Jim Perks, the head of the RN Submarine Service, said:

“The ability to operate undetected for significant periods of time with top quality kit ensures that a submarine remains a formidable delivery mechanism, in this case enabling the covert deployment of the Surveillance and Reconnaissance team as showcased in the exercises off Norway. Our ability to work together highlights the remarkable attributes of the team and the platforms in which we operate.”

[M: Could this mean that they trained to be in sub with extra people for extended time? Like perhaps going to Baltic Sea undetected and then doing some "job"? Perhaps?] 

The training is a small but important phase of the Cold Response 2022 exercise – proved the usefulness of using submarines to access strategically important areas with small teams of highly-trained specialists without being detected. 

26 July 2022 - Celebrated head of the Royal Navy’s Submarine Service retires.

Taking over from Commodore Perks is Commodore Dunn who himself has a wealth of submarine experience stretching back to 1989 when he joined the Royal Navy aged just 18 and volunteered for service on submarines.

 

During his career Commodore Dunn has served with HMS Courageous, HMS Sovereign, HMS Turbulent, HMS Superb, and HMS Vengeance (Port) and has commanded HMS Vigilant.

He has also spent time on shore as Assistant Staff Officer Operations at Clyde, with Fleet Operational Sea (Submarines), with the Maritime Warfare Centre as head of underwater warfare pillar, and with the operations team of the Naval Staff within the MOD.

He also served in Bahrain as Staff Operations Officer with the UK Maritime Component’s Headquarters and in the US as UK Liaison Officer to US Strategic Command.

His most recent post was as Head of Nuclear Planning in the Director General Nuclear Organisation.

[M: Was this planned retirement or did Perks disagree with the plan? /speculating]

[M: The new person has somehow very well matching qualification would UK consider attacking RU asset, best hands-on to nuclear response scenarios.] 

16 June 2022 - Royal Navy's cutting-edge £1.3bn submarine takes to Mediterranean for first NATO mission

The submarine was formally commissioned in September 2021. It joined its sister vessels – HMS Astute, Ambush and Artful – on the front line for the first time in January, spending months in the depths of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. 

Fresh from its deployment to the Arctic, in which it carried out a number of missions including sub-surface stealth raids with Royal Marines Commandos, sister submarine HMS Ambush joined Audacious as it limbered up for full operations off the Scottish coast. The two submarines went head to head in underwater battles in a range of warfare scenarios.

[M: Training a shadow fight would Project 877–class: Kilo (Black hole) RU submarine appear in near future? "The submarines do particularly well in shallow water, where a pair of ducted props powered by low-speed motoring motors likely allows it to operate closer to the sea floor."]

 2 August 2022 - Boris visits Portsmouth Naval Base

...to see Royal Navy’s state-of-the-art mine clearing team in action

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has visited the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) at the Defence Diving School, Horsea Island this week.

All Navy clearance divers and Army divers carry out their basic training at the school’s headquarters on Horsea Island on the north shore of Portsmouth Harbour.

The facilities are first class and include a 1,000m (1km) salt water lake, a 5m diving tank, recompression chambers, surface and underwater engineering facilities, classrooms, conference rooms, catering facilities and a specialist diving clothing store.

Royal Navy divers were rebranded and rebrigaded to form new small, elite mission teams earlier this year, able to deal with the latest threats, in the biggest shake-up since 1996. 

Based in Portsmouth, Plymouth and Faslane, Royal Navy Divers can be called to a range of tasks, including explosive disposal of historic ordnance and the rendering safe of improvised explosive devices around the UK as well as clearing sea mines in the world’s seas and oceans and deterring terrorists across the globe.

The recent changes have enabled these elite diving teams to be able to carry out more missions while also continuing training with NATO and other allies on global exercises.

This year they will deploy to the United States, France, Norway and Iceland as well as continue their presence in the Middle East alongside partner nations and deployed ships, such as Type 23 frigate HMS Montrose, minehunters Middleton, Bangor, Chiddingfold and Penzance and RFA support ship Lyme Bay. 

 

Able Seaman (Diver) Sanderson, of Delta Squadron said:

 "This new way of working means we aren't remaining static and we're moving with the times.

"My unit started evolving last year but it's good to see the second phase coming into play now and the new opportunities that come with that.

"We are expanding on what we can currently do, while looking at the future roles we can play within the fleet. With the navy undergoing changes, it's important we remain relevant and this transformation shows we can have significant impact." 

[M: Note that the DTXG team is on both in Portsmouth and Faslane/Clyde bases. The big restructuring happened just lately on 1st March 2022.] 

[M: Deployed in Norway, I suppose on this Arctic exercise training sailing from the submarine toward the shore. I can imagine a scenario in which this handy skill could be used. More about Cold Response.] 

 

Politicians love of submarine forces 

5 Aug 2022 - Liz Truss visits Portsmouth at Queens Hotel, Southsea on Friday 5th August 2022.

31 Aug 2022 - Boris Johnson to visit nuclear submarine yard in latest stop on PM's farewell tour  

6 Sept 2022 - Letters of last resort: PM’s early task to write to UK’s nuclear sub commanders

One of Liz Truss’s early tasks will be to write instructions by hand to each of Britain’s four nuclear submarine commanders, directing them how to respond in the event of an all-out attack that will have killed her and destroyed the UK. They are known as the letters of last resort.

But first, Truss will receive a briefing from Britain’s military chiefs on how the Trident nuclear deterrent operates – including the likely military and human consequences of authorising a retaliatory strike. 

It is not necessary for Truss to write the letters immediately after the briefing; the new prime minister has time to reflect. The existing letters, written by Boris Johnson, can remain in force, most obviously for the submarine currently out at sea – at least one must be on patrol at all times for the nuclear deterrent to remain continuous.  

The Cold Response and Norweigean Poseidon P-8 plane

NOR flight data vs Astute subs spotting.

Info is scarce, this is available, just a few picks:

2 Jun 2022 - NOR, The new maritime patrol aircraft P-8 Poseidon, Saint66 9586 Munin

 It took off from Evenes for the first time. Training trip over Bliksvær outside Bodø and return over Andøya and down to Evenes for practice landing inserts. Video - Flight Data on Norwegian Air Force P8s

24 August 2022 - Poseidon P8 practicing shark hunting off the coast of Norway.

 

 Where were other Astute class subs in 2022? 

29 October 2021 - HMS Astute in Perth 

April 2022 - HMS Audacious was in Gibraltar 

16 June 2022 - HMS Audacious Completes 1st NATO Patrol In Mediterranean 

16 June 2022 -  HMS Audacious has conducted NATO maritime security patrols in the Mediterranean on her maiden operational deployment.

HMS Audacious has completed her second Mediterranean patrol, conducting maritime security operations for the UK and her NATO allies, say the Royal Navy.

The boat – normally based at Faslane on the Clyde, but operating out of NATO’s base in Souda Bay, Crete, for the past six months – has been working alongside NATO surface ships on Operation Sea Guardian, monitoring tankers and cargo vessels. 

31 August 2022 - Royal Navy commissioned the 5th Astute-class nuclear-powered hunter-killer submarine, HMS Anson, with a ceremony held in Barrow on 31 August 2022.

2 September 2022 - HMS Audacious has completed her second Mediterranean patrol, conducting maritime security operations for the UK and her NATO allies, say the Royal Navy. 

After six months of near continuous operations, Audacious returned to Souda Bay to undergo maintenance – not just on the hi-tech sensors and systems inside the boat, but her hull as well. 

Specialist divers were flown out from the UK, running over the entire length of the submarine’s 97-metre-long hull with what is effectively a giant, heavy duty dental hygienist’s tooth polisher – the bristles on the brushes strong enough to sweep away barnacles, but not too firmly that the black tiles which cover Audacious and are key to her stealth are not damaged or dislodged. 

[M: Why would a sub do this after the 6m of operation when it goes to home port unless it wants to be clean and ready for the new mission? Previously I thought bigger suspect was Ambush but it may be S122 HMS Audacious as well]

Other assets on the seas

Based on data provided by campaign group Nukewatch, the investigative journalism website, The Ferret, revealed on November 6 that two Trident-equipped Vanguard-class submarines went out on patrol for 157 days in 2022. The Nukewatch has been keeping tabs on the movements of Vanguard-class submarines in Clyde throughout 2022. The report said that one sub was at sea from January 1 to June 6, 2022, and another from May 31 to November 3, 2022.

[M: It makes sense that the state actor would have other critical assets on the sea to deter RU response] 

8 Nov 2022 -  British nuclear-armed sub resurfaces after fire onboard 

A Royal Navy nuclear-armed submarine had to abandon its mission and resurface, after a fire broke out onboard following an electrical fault. 

The Ministry of Defence said the incident on HMS Victorious happened six weeks ago.  

[M: 8th of November minus 6 weeks = 27-09-2022, NS bombing = 26-09-2022]

To have a buddy saves time: 

I asked him to: "Show me chain of command in UK  Royal Navy from monarch to Commodore Jim Perks, the head of the RN Submarine Service"

 

The chain of command in the Royal Navy from the Monarch to Commodore Jim Perks, the head of the Royal Navy Submarine Service, would be as follows:

• The King/Queen: The ultimate authority of the Armed Forces is the monarch, who is the Commander-in-Chief.
  
  
• Secretary of State for Defence: The Secretary of State for Defence is responsible for the overall direction and control of the Armed Forces.
  
  
• Chief of the Defence Staff: The Chief of the Defence Staff is the professional head of the Armed Forces and is responsible for the strategic direction and management of the Defence establishment.
  
  
• First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff: This is the professional head of the Royal Navy and is responsible for the fighting effectiveness, efficiency, and morale of the Naval Service.
  
  
• Fleet Commander: The Fleet Commander is responsible for the management of the Royal Navy's deployed and non-deployed assets, including submarines.
  
  
• Flag Officer Submarines: The Flag Officer Submarines is responsible for the command, control, and organization of all Royal Navy submarines.
  
  
• Commodore: A Commodore is a senior officer who may command a flotilla, squadron, or group of ships or submarines.

Commodore Jim Perks: As the head of the Royal Navy Submarine Service, Commodore Perks is responsible for the command and control of all Royal Navy submarines. 

QUESTION:

Is it theoretically possible that UK as a state actor could be a suspect?

How long would validation, preparation, etc need to take 1/2y or a year?

If a UK submarine was involved, that means training.

Could these news on this post mean something?