PREFACE/ISSUE
Was the Nordstream just one off issue?
7 Jan 2022: Disruption at one of two undersea cables to SvalbardThe cable is operated by Space Norway, and also serves the SvalSat park of more than 100 satellite antennas. SvalSat is today the world’s largest commercial ground station with worldwide customers. Its location at 78°N, halfway between mainland Norway and the North Pole, gives the station a unique position to provide all-orbit support to operators of polar-orbiting satellites.8 Jan 2022 - Ben Wallace: Russia cutting underwater cables could be an act of war, says UK defence chief9 Jan 2022 - Adm. Tony Radakin says any attempt by submarines at damage would be treated as ‘act of war’
[M: Note another post: Rishi Sunak´s 2017 report about vulnerability of subsea internet cables]
22 Sept 2022 - FSB thwarts terror attack on gas pipeline from Turkey to Europe
The would-be terrorist was apprehended when taking two powerful self-made explosive devices from a cache
"The Federal Security Service has thwarted an attempt by the Ukrainian special services to conduct a terror attack on an oil and gas facility being used for energy supplies from Turkey to Europe," the FSB reported. The perpetrator, a Russian national born in 1978, recruited by the Ukrainian security services in Ukraine, and his four Russian accomplices have been detained, the FSB added.The would-be terrorist was apprehended when taking two powerful self-made explosive devices from a cache. Mobile devices with text and audio records of his conversations with a curator and instructions on how to assemble the explosive device and money transfer details as well as the coordinates of the intended explosion site were found on the Ukrainian security service agent.
[M: The timing is interesting. Was the person hired? Who was behind? Was this related to the Nordstream sabotage which happened in a few days on 26/09/2022? Real or a bite?]
22 Sept 2022 - Russia Says It Thwarted Attack on Energy Link to Turkey, EU
Russia’s security service said it thwarted a planned Ukrainian attack on infrastructure delivering energy to Turkey and Europe -- a claim Kyiv denied.
The gas market is particularly sensitive to this kind of developments as Moscow has used disruptions at energy infrastructure in the past to justify curtailments to supplies.
29 Sept 2022 - FT: Russian security services last week claimed they had thwarted a planned Ukrainian attack on the TurkStream pipeline that supplies Turkey...
21 Oct 2022 - Several submarine cables in the south of France were cut
Several submarine cables in the south of France were cut overnight, affecting the internet around the world. It is likely the work of Russian submarine saboteurs, but investigators have so far found no evidence of the country’s involvement in the damage.
At least three fiber optic cables were cut in southern France on Wednesday evening, October 19, slowing internet access for users in Europe, Asia, and the US. Cloud companies promptly repaired the highway.
According to a report by cloud security company Zscaler, the unexpected cable damage resulted in packet loss and increased latency for websites and applications traveling along the affected paths. The company identified three faulty circuits: Marseille-Lyon, Marseille-Milan and Marseille-Barcelona. Zscaler made adjustments to internet traffic routing where possible to mitigate the issue. Search operations to identify damaged sections of the submarine cable are still ongoing.
24 Oct 2022 - Fiber-optic Submarine Cable near Faroe and Shetland Islands Damaged; Mediterranean Cables also Cut
Damage to subsea communication cables near the Faroe and Shetlands Islands left much of the islands without internet access. Subsea fiber-optics cables in the south of France were also cut in what authorities call acts of sabotage.
14 Nov 2022 - Russia conspiring to sabotage vital British military fuel supply line in South Atlantic
III. Sanctions were causing maintenance issues for pipelines to Turkey
29 Sept 2022 - Russia Says Sanctions Prevent It From Maintaining Gas Pipeline To Turkey, Balkans
The Russian operator of a pipeline that supplies Turkey and the Balkans with natural gas said it would suspend some maintenance and repair work, citing European Union sanctions, a move that threatens to deepen Europe’s energy crisis.
Oleg Aksyutin , the director of South Stream Transport B.V., sent a note earlier this month to division managers informing them that Netherland’s import and export authority would be revoking its export license as of September 17.
South Stream Transport is the Dutch-unit of the Kremlin-controlled natural gas giant, Gazprom, which manages the TurkStream pipeline running under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and on to the Balkans and Central Europe.
In the letter, a copy of which was obtained by RFE/RL, Aksyutin ordered them to “suspend the execution of all contracts related to the technical support of the gas pipeline, including design, manufacture, assembly, testing, repair, maintenance and training.”
He said gas exports should continue but only with emergency support in order to prevent damage to the environment.
30 Sept 2022 - TurkStream natural gas pipeline operator:
Our export license has been revoked, Turkey and Europe will not be affectedThe Russian company, which operates the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, which carries Russian natural gas to eastern and southern European countries via the Black Sea and Turkey, announced that its export license was canceled by the Dutch government.
South Stream Transport BV said it will continue to ship gas and has applied for license renewal.
12 Oct 2022 - Russia claims attack on NordStream is "act of state terrorism" .
"The recent terrorist attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines was aimed at undermining the energy security of the entire continent", Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.
IV. Another attempt reportedly against TurkStream
13 Oct 2022 - Russia detains saboteurs trying to blow up TurkStream
A Russian-Turkish project has been subjected to sabotage as attacks continue on Russia's energy infrastructure.
The Russian authorities have detained several saboteurs as they were trying to sabotage and blow up a part of the TurkStream pipeline that is on Russian territory, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.
"Saboteurs were taken, several people were detained - they wanted to blow up [TurkSteam] on our territory, on land," Peskov told reporters. The pipeline starts in the Russian Krasnodar region.
"Moscow does not have the habit of "shooting itself in the leg", Peskov added, dismissing remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said Russia was planning on sabotaging its infrastructure of gas pipelines.
"We do not tend to shoot ourselves in the leg," Peskov underlined.
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the TurkStream gas pipeline would not replace the Nord Streams because they have different capacities.
Investigators from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) later started a criminal investigation into the blasts as an act of international terrorism.
"There is no doubt that this is an act of international terrorism, the purpose of which is to undermine the energy security of the entire continent," Putin told the Russian Energy Week in Moscow on Wednesday.
Putin previously accused the West of being behind the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines. He said it had already "practically begun to destroy shared European energy infrastructure," stressing that "it is obvious to all who is profiting from this."
[M: Interesting about this is that nobody elaborated on the 2 attempts after some Ukrainian elements became suspects of the Nordstream sabotage - yacht case]
13 Oct 2022 - Saboteurs caught plotting attack on TurkStream pipeline — Kremlin
Dmitry Peskov stressed that "this is an attempt on a route that remains in a functional state, fully loaded, running like clockwork"
V. Could this be a reason for the latest attempt of sabotage?
18 Oct 2022 - Moscow Plans to Shift EU Export Routes to TurkeyGazprom wants to rearrange its natural gas pipeline transit routes to Europe through Turkey after the two Nord Stream pipelines were damaged...
...If the plans materialize, it could bolster Turkey’s ambitions to become a significant regional gas hub.
Russian President Vladimir Putin floated the idea to expand the capacity of the Turk Stream offshore gas pipeline to Turkey on Oct. 12 with a view to redirect volumes to Europe from the damaged Nord Stream pipelines. Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan then instructed the government to immediately begin technical studies.Gazprom has said it would no longer build pipeline infrastructure inside the EU following the cancellation of the South Stream project in 2014 due to opposition from Bulgaria and Brussels. Turk Stream, the project that eventually replaced South Stream, did not involve any Russia-financed capacity construction in the EU, only in non-EU Serbia. Gazprom floated the idea of selling their gas on the Russian border instead of directly in the EU through a trading department set up in St. Petersburg in 2018. It also launched its Electronic Sales Platform where it sold spot gas to European players from various interconnection points.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said last week during the Russian Energy Week conference in Moscow that the new transit through Turkey could fully replace the lost Nord Stream capacity, potentially alluding that Gazprom intends to increase Turk Stream capacity even further than the planned 63 Bcm/yr.
Putin said Europe must make it clear that it needs the gas from an expanded Turk Stream before Moscow starts investments.
The Kremlin has already threatened to impose blocking sanctions on Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz, which would mean a stop to Ukrainian transit volumes.
See related post: The Act of Retorsion allows Gazprom legal suspension of deliveries to Europe
VI. UK is Tackling Russian Income from hydrocarbons - older news
5 Nov 2021 - Stop guzzling Russian gas, Boris Johnson tells Europe
Addressing the governments of Germany, Austria, Italy, France, and other European countries that import large amounts of Russian gas, Mr Johnson said:"We hope that our friends may recognise that a choice is shortly coming between mainlining ever more Russian hydrocarbons in giant new pipelines and sticking up for Ukraine and championing the cause of peace and stability, let me put it that way."8 Dec 2021 - Liz Truss: Europe needs to end energy dependency on Russia, says UK foreign minister
British foreign minister Liz Truss said on Wednesday Europe would become increasingly hooked on Russian gas if Moscow got its way and it was time for countries to end that dependency.
“The EU (European Union) relies on Russia for over 40% of its gas, and with some countries Russia has a complete monopoly of supply. If Russia gets its way, Europe will be increasingly hooked on its gas,” Truss told the Chatham House think tank.
“We have to end this strategic dependency,” she said, adding she would meet her Ukrainian counterpart on Wednesday to strengthen their ties and repeat the message that any Russian incursion into Ukraine would be a mistake.
11 Dec 2021 - UK seeks unity at G7 meeting over Russia’s ‘malign behaviour’
Getting a unified response from the G-7, a group of countries with disparate interests, has often proved tough. Germany plans on getting gas from Russia soon through the contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine. Britain, which is not dependent on Russian gas, generally takes a tougher line on the pipeline — but faces tough questions about London’s financial district and property market, both hubs for Russian money.Truss said she wanted to work with other countries “to make sure that free democratic nations are able to have an alternative to Russian gas supplies.”She met on the sidelines of the gathering with Germany’s new foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, a politician from the environmentalist Greens who previously opposed Nord Stream 2.
14 Feb 2022 - UK's Liz Truss: ‘Russians didn’t like what I had to say’
Foreign secretary says she had a 'clear message' to deliver to the Kremlin
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss defended her decision to hold talks in Moscow with foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, insisting she had to deliver a clear message to Russia.
The talks between the Ms Truss and Mr Lavrov last week were tense and ended in an awkward press conference in which the Russian minister appeared to question her understanding of the crisis.
“Of course, the Russians didn’t like what I had to say but I had to deliver a message to Vladimir Putin’s government," she said on Monday.
“I went to Russia to deliver a very clear message, which is that it’s Russia who is the aggressor.
“Of course, the Russians didn’t like what I had to say but I say it nevertheless. And I want them to desist and I want them to be aware that there will be severe costs of an invasion.”
Mr Lavrov described the meeting as a “conversation between deaf and dumb”, claiming Ms Truss did not listen to Russia’s position and the UK was unprepared for the talks.
“What I think all European countries need to do now is get Nord Stream out of the bloodstream,” Boris Johnson said.
“Yank out that hypodermic drip feed of Russian hydrocarbons that is keeping so many European economies going.”
17 Feb 2022 - Russia must pull back, or there will be trouble in the pipeline: article by Liz TrussIt’s vital that the Russian people and the Russian government hear directly from us about the price they would pay for a further invasion.Not only would there be massive consequences bringing severe economic costs for Russia through an unprecedented package of coordinated sanctions.
It would also hit their other strategic interests including Nord Stream 2 - making it unconscionable for the pipeline to go ahead.
Alongside our allies, we are taking a hard-headed approach, which means being ready to accept short-term pain for long-term gain, whether through imposing sanctions or cutting strategic dependence.19 Feb 2022 - PM speech at the Munich Security Conference
We must now wean ourselves off dependence on Putin’s oil and gas.I understand the costs and complexities of this effort and the fact this is easier said than done, so I am grateful for Chancellor Scholz’s assurances about Nord Stream 2, but the lessons of the last few years, and of Gazprom’s obvious manipulation of European gas supply, cannot be ignored.
We must ensure that by making full use of alternative suppliers and technology, we make Russia’s threats redundant.
That will be the work of the months and years to come, as well as the necessary and overdue steps that we in the UK must take to protect our own financial system.
23 Feb 2022 - Ukraine crisis: Putin has gone 'full tonto' and
...UK military can 'kick Russia's backside', defence sec says Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells military personnel that Vladimir Putin has gone "full tonto" over Ukraine and left himself with "no friends". The British army "kicked the backside of Tsar Nicholas I in 1853 in Crimea", he adds, and "can always do it again".March 2022 - Geopolitical implications of Nord Stream 2 - UK Parliament
Implications for Ukraine - Nord Stream 2 has implications for Ukraine. Although not a huge importer of Russian gas, Ukraine is a major transit country of current Russian gas pipelines into Europe. Transit fees are thought to account for almost 3% of Ukraine’s GDP, which will bring an expected revenue of $2-3 billion annually over the next five years.
7 March 2022 - Boris Johnson says we can’t close down use of Russian oil and gas overnight
He told reporters that he would set out an energy supply strategy in the coming days.
‘There are going to be impacts but I think it is the right thing to do. It is completely the right thing to do to move away from Russian hydrocarbons but we have to do it step by by step.
‘We have got to make sure we have substitute supply. One of the things we are looking at is the possibility of using more of our own hydrocarbons. ‘That doesn’t mean we are in any way abandoning our commitment to reducing CO2 but we have got to reflect the reality that there is a crunch on at the moment. We need to increase our self-reliance.
9 March 2022 - Diplomatically, politically, economically – and eventually, militarily
...Putin must fail in his invasion of Ukraine. The world is united in condemning the invasion and taking action.
16 March 2022 - Prime Minister @BorisJohnson met
...with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. They agreed to collaborate to maintain stability in the energy market and continue the transition to clean technology. They also committed to boost cooperation in defence and trade.
16 March 2022 - Today Prime Minister @BorisJohnson met...... the Crown Prince of the UAE @MohamedBinZayed. They welcomed the longstanding partnership between our two countries and discussed opportunities to increase collaboration on energy security, defence and trade.16 March 2022 - Prime Minister @BorisJohnson on why it’s vital that we invest in renewable energy and end the West’s reliance on Putin’s oil and gas.
see video news here
17 March 2022 - BoJo: We need to wean the West off Russian oil and gas
...to punish Putin’s war machine. Prime Minister @BorisJohnson has been working with partners in the UAE and Saudi Arabia on stabilising global energy markets and ramping up investments in renewable technologies.
24 March 2022 - WARNING: As Russian troops were positioned...
...on Ukraine’s border, the UK and its @NATO Allies and partners warned that any incursion would be a strategic mistake with massive consequences. We made plans to impose severe costs on Russia should it invade.
24 March 2022 - Spoke to @WBHoekstra
...about further coordinated sanctions against Putin and those who support him. The Netherlands and UK will continue to firmly and swiftly impose crippling economic measures on Russia’s war machine.
25 March 2022 - The Prime Minister met with President of the EU Commission
... @vonderleyen . They committed to strengthen economic sanctions on Putin’s regime and continue working together to diversify energy sources – moving away from reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
1 April 2022 - We agreed that pressure on Russia must continue and we will work to eliminate dependency on Russian energy.
5 April 2022 - Spoke to Italian Foreign Minister @luigidimaio
...about tackling the income that is funding Putin’s regime. We need to step up our coordinated sanctions to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
8 April 2022 - The Prime Minister welcomed German @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz
...to Downing Street today to discuss how we can accelerate support for Ukraine, toughen sanctions and help European countries wean themselves off Russian energy.
26 April 2022 - Liz Truss is ready to try and beat global aggressors at their own game
"The Foreign Secretary believes there needs to be a much greater economic underpinning to foreign policy
When Liz Truss addresses diplomats this evening with the annual Mansion House speech, it will be the first time since her appointment as Foreign Secretary that she has set out her plan to reconfigure the UK’s foreign policy.Berlin has cancelled the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and increased its defence spending – rewriting 30 years of German foreign policy which has been underpinned by a belief in change through trade.On the UK side, much of what has happened confirmed the Government assessment on the threats the West faces. The 2021 integrated review (into foreign, security and defence policy) correctly identified Russia as the greatest threat – while naming China as “a systemic challenge”.
Yet with events moving as quickly as they are, the view in the Foreign Office is that the UK must now go further still. Key to this is to fix what has long been a weak flank of UK foreign policy: moving to strengthen economic ties – both with long-standing allies and those countries the UK wishes to bring into its orbit.While the West has rallied in the wake of war in Ukraine, the fact that Russia invaded in the first place was a failure of deterrence. The view of the Foreign Secretary is that in order to avoid repeating the same mistakes, a new approach is required – one in which there needs to be a much greater economic underpinning to foreign policy.Now the UK wants to beat these aggressors at their own game. It’s not just about boosting defence spending – something Truss has previously suggested would be necessary – though the Chancellor Rishi Sunak may want to look away when she gets up to speak on Wednesday.
Instead, it’s engaging with other countries. “Liz wants the free world to use economics as a hard-edged tool of security and foreign policy because we’ve neglected it since the Cold War and aggressors have been bolder,” says an ally of the Foreign Secretary. “She wants to use economics to constrain rivals and also build closer trade and investment links with a wider group of countries.”Another supporter of Truss puts it this way: “We need an economic Nato.”This shift can also be summarised as a “carrot and stick” approach. The stick can be seen in the power of the sanctions levied against Russia by the G7 and its allies. The economic damage they are inflicting is leading to pain for Putin and his people. They could go further still – with a ban on imports of oil and gas; hydrocarbons make up a third of the Russian economy.20 Sept 2022 - UK PM Liz Truss defends power bills hike, cites 'security', Russia-Ukraine crisis.
The UK "cannot compromise its security for the sake of cheap energy," according to UK PM Liz Truss.
20 Sep 2022 - Liz Truss lands in US to reset ‘special relationship’ on first foreign trip as PM
“My message to the people of Ukraine is this: the UK will continue to be right behind you every step of the way. Your security is our security.”
She will also tell fellow leaders that they must put an end to Putin’s economic blackmail by removing all energy dependence on Russia.
“Too many lives – in Ukraine, in Europe and around the world – are being manipulated by a dependence on Russian energy. We need to work together to end this once and for all.”
21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)
01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience.""We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."
"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.
We must do this together."
We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.
08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action.The response has been built on partnerships and alliances and also on being prepared to use new instruments – unprecedented sanctions, diplomatic action, and rapid military support.There has been a strength of collective purpose – we have met many times, spoken many times on the phone, we have made things happen.Now we must use these instruments in a more systematic way to push back on the economic aggression of authoritarian regimes.The G7 and our like-minded partners should act as an economic NATO, collectively defending our prosperity.If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.
12:00 min "In all these areas, on all of the fronts, the time to act is now. This is a decisive moment in our history, in the history of this organization and in the history of freedom...
The story of 2022 could have been that of an authoritarian state rolling its tanks over the border of a peaceful neighbour and subjugating its people.
Instead, it is the story of freedom fighting back.
In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through.
But this cannot be a one-off.
This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values."
Britain’s commitment to this is total.
We will be a dynamic, reliable and trustworthy partner.
VII. Were the UK, FRA undersea cables issue a UK false flag operations?
18 Oct 2022 - UK: Severed undersea cables near Shetland Islands
Ian Brown, a partner with Lerwick-based internet provider Shetland Broadband, said he became aware of a problem just after 00:00 on Thursday when his home broadband went off.
He said the north cable was broken on 15 October in a clean break, but the southern one was not a clean break because there are around 100 fibres in the cable - and not all had been broken.
21 October 2021 - In France, large underwater Internet cables were cut: a Russian submarine is suspected of sabotage
The breach in Great Britain also sparked rumors that unknown Russian saboteurs may be involved in the fault lines
VIII. UK foils Putin's plot to sabotage vital South Atlantic pipeline
13 Nov 2022 - UK foils Putin's plot to sabotage vital South Atlantic pipeline
Concerns were raised last month when British security services gained access to satellite images which indicated that Russia had become markedly interested in the stretch of pipe. The images, which surfaced shortly after attacks on two Nord Stream pipelines, have been examined by technical specialists, sources say.
14 Nov 2022 - Russia conspiring to sabotage vital British military fuel supply line in South Atlantic
[M: False flag called off? Unimportant issue blown into bigger news nobody noticed. Why would Russia want to attack in retaliation a pipeline there?]
IX. The IMF data
CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:
The UK was tackling the income of Russia to wage the war.
It did not seem to work out very well.
Notes:
More about sanctions and contra action in this post here.
More about devastating effect of sanctions on European economy here.
Mission accomplished - UK - from Energy Importer to Energy Exporter here
More about About the UK-USA "special relationship" here
More about How UK government does not like Nordstream here
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