Wednesday, April 12, 2023

038 - Switzerland & the Nordstream affair

PREFACE/ISSUE

Exploring role of Switzerland as a country where Nordstream AG and Nordstream 2 AG are incorporated.


FACT: Both companies are incorporated in Switzerland. They are Swiss companies with international shareholders.

Since opening in 2011, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been a sort of umbilical cord connecting Europe to much of the energy it needs to keep its heat and lights on.

By 2020, Russia was supplying nearly a fifth of the natural gas imports in France, for example, about two-thirds in Germany, and 100% in the Czech Republic.

Nord Stream 2 has not been put into operation due to sanctions and agreement between Germany and USA - here yet it was dormant, like a "Sleeping beauty" as Russians said.


I. The original administrative obstacles are stopping NS2 to go online but future is uncertain

6 Oct 2021 - Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 can challenge EU rules, EU court adviser says
Gazprom's Swiss unit can challenge an EU gas rule that requires gas producers to be separate companies from those that control the pipeline, an adviser to the EU's top court said on Wednesday.

 
II. The US deal with Angela Merkel & Scholz

18 Jan 2022 - Scholz: Germany will discuss Nord Stream 2 penalties if Russia attacks Ukraine 

BERLIN — Germany's new government on Tuesday gave the clearest indication yet that it would discuss halting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russia attacks Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz offered his strongest warning to date at a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, where he was pressed about whether penalizing Nord Stream 2 was part of the "severe economic costs" Germany has said Russia will face if it invades Ukraine.

"It is clear that there will be a high cost and that all this will have to be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine," Scholz said.

Scholz said his government "stands by all aspects" of a deal his predecessor Angela Merkel reached with U.S. President Joe Biden last year, under which Germany promised to take action at the national level and press for EU sanctions should Russia "use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive acts against Ukraine."  

26 May 2022 -  The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia

Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise.

 

III. Sanctions are hitting on both Nordstream and Nordstream 2 AG

26 Feb 2022 - Switzerland faces pressure to toughen sanctions on Russia 

Neutral Switzerland is resisting pressure both at home and from the European Union to impose tougher sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine.

On Thursday, Swiss President Ignazio Cassis announced that Switzerland would adopt the same EU travel bans for 367 named Russian individuals and companies. But Switzerland stopped short of freezing financial assets, saying it would instead stop its banks from accepting any more money from those on the sanctions list.

Neutrality

Under this principle, Switzerland must maintain a comparably wide distance from two parties in a conflict. However, international law experts agree that this does not apply if, as in the case of Russia, there has been a clear unilateral attack in violation of international law. 

A potential role as mediator in the conflict. Switzerland organised a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden in Geneva last June and has repeatedly offered its good offices to both countries. Sanctions could jeopardise the Swiss role in diplomacy.  

Location for business

Switzerland is home to the headquarters of many commodity firms with strong financial involvement with Russia or that are active in the trade of Russian raw materials, such as oil and gas.  

About 80% of Russia’s commodity trading goes through Switzerland, according to the Russian embassy in Bern. Vitol and Trafigura have stakes in a project of Russian oil giant Rosneft and trade in Russian oil, as does commodity trading Gunvor. All three conduct much of their trading activity out of Geneva. 

The headquarters of Russia's controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is also in Switzerland. The project was cleared for sanctions by the U.S. on Wednesday. This gives Switzerland considerable leverage should it decide to use it. 

2 March 2022 - Nord Stream 2 files for bankruptcy, fires employees

[M: this rumour was declined by the company later]

2 March 2022 - Russia sanctions: Nord Stream 2 fires more than 140 people in Zug

Swiss-based company Nord Stream 2, which is in charge of the gas pipeline project between Russia and Germany, has made employees redundant as a result of sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

More than 140 people have lost their jobs at the company, based in the Swiss town of Zug in central Switzerland, according to Economics Minister Guy Parmelin.

The move by Nord Stream 2 is apparently aimed at settling claims ahead of a United States sanction deadline for other entities to stop dealings with it.

13 July 2022 - EU court points to future resurrection of Russian gas pipe (NS2)

8 Sept 2022 - Swiss court gives Nord Stream 2 more time to avoid insolvency. 

In May, the court granted a provisional moratorium against bankruptcy proceedings for the first time, which was valid until September 10. This period has now been extended by another four months.

The Swiss company behind the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 has received a four-month extension to try to repay its debts. 

[M: Sanctions are against Russian interests but against Swiss company]

 

 *********************************************************

    EUS registered 2 tremors in the Baltic Sea

            on the night of Monday 26 September at 02.03 & at 19.03, 

                                                                 both Danish summer time. 

*********************************************************


IV. Three out of four pipelines of a Swiss companies Nordstream AG and Nordstream 2 AG are attacked in Exclusive Economic Zones (TZ) of Denmark and Sweden

         The Big picture of whole Baltic Sea (EEZs)

According to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), coastal states have sovereign rights over their EEZs, which includes the exclusive right to authorize, regulate and control any activities related to the exploration, exploitation, conservation, and management of the natural resources within their EEZs.

Therefore, any investigation within the EEZ must be carried out with the consent and cooperation of state which owns the EEZ. Failure to seek consent may result in a violation of state B's sovereignty and may be considered a breach of international law.

  
V. The Nordstream AG and Nordstream 2 AG are not dead 

6 Oct 2021 - Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 can challenge EU rules, EU court adviser says
Gazprom's Swiss unit can challenge an EU gas rule that requires gas producers to be separate companies from those that control the pipeline, an adviser to the EU's top court said on Wednesday. 

18 Oct 2022 - Are sabotage of submarine pipelines an ‘armed attack’ triggering a right to self-defence?

A main difficulty in situations such as the damage on the NordStream pipelines, is that the State invoking the right to self-defence bears the burden of proving the facts showing the existence of such an attack against it by a particular State (International Court of Justice (‘ICJ’), Oil Platforms (2003), [51]). In this connection, generic announcements that an attack or other incident will take place prior to the explosions are insufficient evidence to support that any subsequent attack is the work of the State making such public statements (Oil Platforms, [60]).

An ‘Armed Attack’ against Whom? According to the ICJ in Military and Paramilitary Activities in and Against Nicaragua (1986), as well as in Oil Platforms, an ‘armed attack’ involves ‘the most grave forms of the use of force’. ‘Other less grave forms’ of use of force do not meet this threshold. In Nicaragua, the Court had considered the distinction between an ‘armed attack’ and mere ‘frontier incidents’, and relied on the following criteria to draw this distinction: the ‘scale and effects’ of the attack, and the ‘circumstances and motivations’ of the attack. The ‘scale and effects’ criterion is particularly relevant for assessing whether blowing-up major transboundary pipelines may constitute an ‘armed attack’. 

However, whether attacks on pipelines on the continental shelf and the EEZ as well as on the high seas, would constitute ‘the most grave form’ of use of force qualifying as an ‘armed attack’ against a particular State (or States) is not straightforward.
Separately, although pipelines do not have flags, like vessels, they are owned and operated by companies incorporated in some State jurisdiction. The question arises whether States in whose jurisdiction the company that owns and/operates the pipeline are incorporated may be the victim of an ‘armed attack’ against the pipeline, giving rise to its right to self-defenceIn the case of NordStream, this would be Switzerland 

25 Oct 2022 - Nord Stream 1’s insurers and reinsurers are grappling with how to respond to hundreds of millions of dollars in potential claims 

Nord Stream 1’s major shareholder, with a 51% stake, is a subsidiary of Russian energy group Gazprom. This company is subject to US, UK, and Canada sanctions, as well as certain restrictions by the European Union.
 
Two sources claimed that renewal of Nord Stream 1 coverage by Lloyd’s syndicates could be difficult due to tighter sanctions against Gazprom. This would prevent claims from being paid.

 Lawyers said that Nord Stream’s insurance companies will need to prove their policy doesn’t cover the damage from the blasts to avoid any claims.

A Western state actor could be held responsible for the damage, which might be classified as an act of terror. One source suggested that insurance might cover it.

If Russia is implicated, however, insurance companies could claim it was “self-sabotage” since Gazprom is state-owned.   

28 Dec 2022 - Nord Stream 2 pipeline firm gets 6-month stay of bankruptcy

A Swiss court has granted a six-month “stay of bankruptcy” to the operating company for the never-opened Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was built to bring Russian gas to Germany but put on ice shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

04 April 2022 - Exclusive: German insurers renew cover for blast-damaged Nord Stream gas link

28 April 2022 - Liz Truss - Great to see @ignaziocassis  to discuss deepening ties through an enhanced FTA and stepping up cooperation on sanctions against Russia.


 

VI. Switzerlans is NOT investigating but it should.

27 March 2022 - Security Council Rejects Draft Resolution Establishing Commission to Investigate Sabotage of Nord Stream Pipeline

Security Council Rejects Draft Resolution Establishing Commission to Investigate Sabotage of Nord Stream Pipeline

The Security Council failed today to adopt a resolution, put forward by the representative of the Russian Federation, which would have established an international independent investigative commission into the September 2022 “acts of sabotage” committed on the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

By a vote of 3 in favour (Brazil, China, Russian Federation) to none against, with 12 abstentions, the Council rejected the draft resolution, owing to a lack of sufficient votes in favour.

Switzerland’s delegate, noting her delegation’s abstention, echoed expressions of concern about the events at the Nord Stream pipelines and condemned such attacks against critical infrastructure.

However, Denmark, Germany and Sweden are currently conducting national investigations to shed light on the facts of those events, she said, calling on the Council to wait for their results.  Mandating an additional investigation would not be beneficial at this stage, she added.

[M: Nordstream companies are incorporated in Switzerland, the state could/should be involved.]

 VII. Norway nationalization of pipelines in EEZ

8 April 2023 - Europe's Largest Gas Producer Is Set To Nationalize Its Gas Pipelines

[M: This means that Norway is protecting pipelines by having them covered by state ownership. An attack on nationalized pipelines would mean an attack against Norwegian state. This spells trouble to Switzerland where many international projects are incorporated and for Switzerland as a neutral state.]


CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

  • The attack was at the Swiss company so Switzerland should be demanding to be part of the investigation. They are waiting for DK, SWE, GER to conclude.

  • Russian right to be investigation in attack to Nordstream AG is as big as France´s one. Lawyers rule the world. Shareholders see hope in reopening some time in future.

  • Russian right to be investigation in attack to Nordstream 2 AG as a majority shareholder should be considered. Lawyers rule the world. Gazprom sees possibility of reopening pipeline some time in future.

  • Swiss court decision on 8th of September and its 4 months out-of-bankruptcy extension may have been one of the triggers which provoked the saboteur for the action.

  • The decision by insurers hints that the saboteur is already known and insurance companies have confidence to reinsure for next years.

 

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037 - Denmark & Nordstream affair

PREFACE/ISSUE

Exploring role of Denmark.

Was the Nordstream affair a strategic blunder or a calculated hit? If the perpetrator knew that they will be noticed, perhaps they just needed some time to "manage the event" politically? In that case all contacts between state actors must be examined. One of them sticks out. Danish Prime minister Mette Fredriksen has visited London shortly after the event to have behind closed doors talk with Liz Truss. She has called with other heads of states via secure calls and flew only to the UK. After that she visited EU and NATO HQs in Brussels. 

It feels like a Déjà-vu

Battle of Copenhagen 1807 - post 

 

I. The importance of Exclusive Economic Zone Teritorial Zones (TZ)

         The Big picture of whole Baltic Sea (EEZs)

According to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), coastal states have sovereign rights over their EEZs, which includes the exclusive right to authorize, regulate and control any activities related to the exploration, exploitation, conservation, and management of the natural resources within their EEZs.

Therefore, any investigation within the EEZ must be carried out with the consent and cooperation of state which owns the EEZ. Failure to seek consent may result in a violation of state B's sovereignty and may be considered a breach of international law.


EEZs and  TZs together

The choice has been made to target selected locations



II. The BALTOPS was most likely NOT the right time to plant explosives

14 June 2022 - BALTOPS 22: A Perfect Opportunity for Research and Resting New Technology

Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68. 


05 June - 17 June 2022 NATO BALTOPS exercise  

11 July - 21 July 2022 Nordstream yearly checkup/maintenance works 

[M: This post explores why BALTOPS was not the good time to plant explosives.] 

 

21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses

           the United Nations General Assembly

                (transcript here)


01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."

06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."
 
"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."

"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.

We must do this together."

We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.

08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.
The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action. 
The response has been built on partnerships and alliances and also on being prepared to use new instruments – unprecedented sanctions, diplomatic action, and rapid military support. 
There has been a strength of collective purpose – we have met many times, spoken many times on the phone, we have made things happen.
Now we must use these instruments in a more systematic way to push back on the economic aggression of authoritarian regimes.
The G7 and our like-minded partners should act as an economic NATO, collectively defending our prosperity.

If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.

12:00 min "In all these areas, on all of the fronts, the time to act is now. This is a decisive moment in our history, in the history of this organization and in the history of freedom...

The story of 2022 could have been that of an authoritarian state rolling its tanks over the border of a peaceful neighbour and subjugating its people.

Instead, it is the story of freedom fighting back.

In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through.

But this cannot be a one-off.

This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values."

Britain’s commitment to this is total.

We will be a dynamic, reliable and trustworthy partner. 

 

*********************************************************

    EUS registered 2 tremors in the Baltic Sea

            on the night of Monday 26 September at 02.03 & at 19.03, 

                                                                 both Danish summer time. 

*********************************************************


III. Danish reactions to the attack in its Exclusive Economic Zone

26 Sept 2022 - "It is now the clear assessment by authorities that...

... these are deliberate actions.

It was not an accident,"

Mette Frederiksen told journalists.

 27 Sept 2022 - DK announcement the following day

"Statsministeriet indkalder til doorstep foran glasdøren til Statsministeriet tirsdag den 27. september klokken 20.00 om situationen ved Nord Stream 1 og 2."

27 Sept 2022 - Denmark's Prime Minister on the gas leaks: - Talk about deliberate actions

Both Sweden's and Denmark's prime ministers believe the gas leaks are deliberate actions, but deny that it is an attack on the countries.

 Not an act of war

The leaks occurred in international waters in what are Denmark and Sweden's exclusive economic zones. The first leak was detected on Monday, while the other two were discovered on Tuesday. 

27 Sept 2022 - Visit to NATO by the Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of Denmark

On Wednesday, 28 September 2022, the NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will meet with the Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of Denmark, Mr. Morten Bødskov, at NATO Headquarters. 

 

IV. In the 1st after the DK PM Mette Frederiksen meets Liz Truss in London, others like Germany, Sweden got just a video conference

30 Sept 2022 - The Prime Minister of DK travels to London and Brussels to discuss the destruction on Nord Stream 1 and 2 (read link)


Translation: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will meet on Saturday 1 October with British Prime Minister Liz Truss in London and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the President of the European Council Charles Michel in Brussels.

 

"The government views the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 with the utmost seriousness. It is about the entire infrastructure of Europe, but of course the seriousness is especially felt here, as the incidents happened in our immediate area. I am in close dialogue with our partners to discuss the situation and ensure close cooperation. Among other things, how we will better protect our European energy infrastructure going forward.” 


The trips to London and Brussels follow talks with a number of heads of state and government, including a video conference with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, and the Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, who leads the Swedish transitional government. 

31 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Liz Truss meets with her Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen in London - video before meeting.

On energy security more widely, the Prime Minister and Prime Minister Frederiksen agreed on the need for likeminded democracies to work together to increase our energy independence.

The Prime Minister outlined the steps the UK has taken to decrease energy bills in the short-term and bolster our energy supply in the longer term. The leaders agreed to further UK-Danish cooperation in areas like wind power, where our countries are global pioneers.

31 Sept 2022 - Danish Premier Frederiksen: extremely worried about Nord Stream sabotage quote...  video after meeting.



01 Oct 2022  - Nord Stream pipeline blasts ‘clearly an act of sabotage’, says Truss

A series of explosions which caused major damage to Russia’s undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines were “clearly an act of sabotage”, Liz Truss has said.

However, in a speech on Friday, the Russian leader claimed “Anglo Saxons” were responsible for the “terror attacks”, which he described as an attempt to “destroy the European energy infrastructure”.

Following Ms Truss’s meeting with Ms Frederiksen, a No 10 spokesman said: “The leaders stressed the need to stay united in the face of Russia’s despicable action in Ukraine.

They agreed the incidents were clearly an act of sabotage. The Prime Minister offered the UK’s support for the ongoing investigation.”

Speaking to reporters outside No 10, Ms Frederiksen said: “One of the reasons why I’m here today is because of the situation in the Baltic Sea, with Nord Stream 1 and 2.

I was able to give some details about what has happened in Denmark, or just outside Denmark.

“This is sabotage and it is critical infrastructure. So of course, this is a very serious situation.”



V. From London to Brussels - meeting with Charles Michel, EU

31 Oct 2022 - Mette Frederiksen meets Charles Michel on 01 October 2022.
Seems there were some changes in planning and the meeting was day postponed.

 

VI. From Brussels to Brussels - meeting with Charles Michel, EU

1 Oct 2022 - NATO chief meets Danish PM to address Nord Stream 'sabotage'

 

 

VII. Things can happen that we have not had the imagination to imagine 

01 Oct 2022 - Metter Frederiksen "Things can happen that we have not had the imagination to imagine" 

We are vulnerable, we are worried, and we are in very, very close dialogue with our allies. No country can handle this task alone, says Mette Frederiksen...  I listen a lot to what Putin says. Both in his speech yesterday, but also on other occasions. And I notice that it is said directly from Putin's side that several different weapons and methods may be used.  

1 Oct 2022 - For the European Political Community, meeting is the message

European Union leaders will discuss the security of crucial infrastructure when they meet in Prague next week following damage to the Nord Stream pipelines that many in the West have said was caused by sabotage.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was tied up with a crucial parliamentary debate at home, bringing the number of leaders down to 43 from the originally envisaged 44.

1 Oct 2022 - Hectic Danish diplomacy

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen once again states that this is sabotage. She visited both London and Brussels on Saturday to talk about the situation in the Baltic Sea.

Frederiksen has discussed the matter with both French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Liz Truss. In Brussels, she met NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Saturday.

We have worked overtime internationally and diplomatically. I have spoken with Olaf Scholz twice, several times with Sweden's Prime Minister, European leaders and today I am in Downing Street, said Frederiksen in London, and continued:

This is not just a matter for Denmark and Sweden. This is something that is of interest to NATO, the EU and among our allies. That is why I am of course happy about the clear support from both NATO, the EU and today from the UK.

Next week, EU leaders will meet to discuss security around important infrastructure in the union, reports Reuters.

3 Oct 2022 - Danish foreign ministry releases ‘bleak’ 2035 strategic analysis

“This is a new security policy reality, where you not only have to see what the eye can see but also have an incredibly well-developed imagination to imagine all kinds of things,” Frederiksen said. 

 

VIII. There seems to be an evidence nobody speaks about

29 Sept 2022 - Torben Ørting Jørgensen, a former admiral with the Danish navy,

 ... told The Associated Press that it was "not so demanding" to carry out an operation either by using a remotely operated underwater vehicle or sending divers from a submarine or a surface vessel. 

3 Oct 2022 - "The person responsible for the Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks is unlikely to ever be held accountable", Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Commander of the German Navy, told Monday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".

"The basis for seeing possible events is a clear picture of the sea, or observation. If there is a clear picture of the air, surface or subsurface — almost clear, because you cannot always be completely sure — then you can look at anomalies in the system and then you can bring a special unit to the area where the anomaly was detected," Kaack said.

4 Oct 2022 - Nordic Countries’ Response To Nord Stream Sabotage

The submarine rescue vessel HMS Belos was dispatched to the Nord Stream leaks sites.

Danish vessels deployed to the site of the leakages include environmental protection ship HDMS Gunnar Thorson as well as the frigate HDMS Absalon.

5 Oct 2022 - US considering offering to analyse underwater audio recordings to aid Nord Stream pipeline sabotage investigations


The US Navy’s processing of the sonar signatures – the term for the unique underwater sounds – provided by Sweden and Denmark could boost the investigations by providing a more detailed picture of what was in the area at the time of the pipeline explosions and what caused them, sources said... 
Each type of underwater machinery like submarines, torpedoes and vessel engines makes a unique sound that is called a “sonar signature,” and the US has an extensive library of these sounds.

6 Oct 2022 -  The support at the gas line ended. 

On October 6, the Armed Forces' support to the Coast Guard at the gas pipeline was suspended. This when the on-site investigation was deemed complete by the authorities that led it and the request for support was thereby withdrawn. The SWE HSwMS Belos returns to other activities.

 


VIII. The blame game? A naval blockade of Russia in Baltic Sea?

7 Oct 2022 - Fears Russia has planted mines on UK’s internet and power cables after ‘Putin ordered gas pipeline attack’

A government told the Daily Mail the Danish probe is being carefully watched to see if it will point the finger at Russia and Vladimir Putin.


IX. The DK blind spot - submarine vulnerability 

19 Oct 2022 - The bottom of the sea is the Danish Defence’s blind spot: 4 possible surveillance technologies

Johannes Kidmose does not consider it improbable that an enemy vessel would be able to sabotage a submarine cable, internet cable, or gas pipeline on the bottom of the sea in Danish waters without anyone discovering it before the damage has been done.

Danish frigates have no sonars on board and are thus blind to what is happening down in the depths of the sea.