042 - The UK warns about the energy storm coming before Nordstream is blown up

PREFACE/ISSUE

When did the state actor start to make plans to blow Nordstream?

"THE ENERGY STORM IS COMING"

SUMMARY:

This post explores the UK’s potential involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline explosions and specifically looks if there were some signs of pre-emptive steps to mitigate the future impact and whether there were steps which could be interpreted as leaning policies toward profiting fro the sabotage act. 

It references statements from UK government officials, looks into policy papers, policy updates.

Officials have expressed concerns about reliance on Russian energy and have outlined detailed plans to prepare for potential disruptions in Russian gas supplies. This raises questions about the motives behind the UK's involvement in the incident.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The UK consistently warned about the dangers posed by Europe's reliance on Russian gas and championed energy diversification. The trend has been a gradual increase in the rhetoric against the Russian hydrocarbons. 

 

Prominent figures, such as Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, voiced strong opposition to Nord Stream 2, emphasizing the necessity of reducing dependence on Russian energy sources. Giving two ultimatum to its allies to stop using Russian energy is not just a trivial political positioning, it underlies possible deeper strategy plans. Trend is noticed to increase pressure on its allies.  

In response to rising energy prices, the UK implemented mitigation measures, including a price cap. Their own gas and oil fields in North sea are depleting and no new major discoveries have been found for long time.

UK's wider strategy actions might have been influenced by economic considerations, particularly within the context of Brexit.

Some of the statements like from Liz Truss are more than eye rising. Give the timing, could that be interpreted as a bragging, confession or a plan open announcement to allies about UK´s intentions? 

Conclusion for a comprehensive investigation is established, it is essential to further ascertain the degree of UK involvement in the Nord Stream affair. 

DATA:

I. Was UK expecting energy prices to go up before Nordstream was taken down? 

17 July 2018 - Boris Johnson wrote that he feels that Nord Stream 2 is divisive and could leave the EU’s supply reliant on “a malign Russian state”.

 If it comes on stream, Nord Stream 2 will provide 12% of the EU’s energy demand. On the face of it, that sounds like good news, but it will remove about $1.8 billion of transit fees that currently benefit the Ukrainian economy, from the Progress and Trans-Siberian pipeline systems.

Yes, Russia may have its stockpile of nuclear weapons and its exports of oil and gas, but its economy is not in good shape and is no larger than that of Spain, despite Russia’s geographical mass. Moscow is therefore all too aware of its reliance on an uninterrupted revenue stream from its gas exports.  

Set against the 2019 completion date for the Nord Stream 2 project, the time for German platitudes and, dare I say it, the UK’s apparent unwillingness to come to a firm and fixed view on Nord Stream 2, has to end.                                                                                                                                                     

I know that several EU countries have a financial stake in the pipeline—or, at least, companies from countries including France, Austria, the Netherlands, and Germany. I also acknowledge that British interests are at stake.

[MRT: Which interests are affected?] 

 However, there is always a political risk with international and large-scale energy projects. My primary concern is not the potential commercial losses for those private companies, or even the success—or lack of success—of former German Chancellors in their deal making, but the strategic interests of the United Kingdom and our friends and allies. That is why I welcome Chancellor Merkel’s recent comments at the EU-Ukraine summit, at which she said “it is not just an economic issue…there are also political considerations”.    

[MRT: This statement is rather alarming, not being concerned about losses of private companies? Does this mean the decision has been made that NS1, NS2 were targets already in 2018?]

    

The EU could also do more to ensure the diversification of its energy supplies. For example, it could get on with building liquefied natural gas storage areas in Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia and other EU countries. Europe is perhaps also over-reliant on gas from the middle east. Perhaps it is time to look westwards across the Atlantic for a more secure and reliable energy partner.

[MRT: This is exactly what happened after Nordstream pipelines were blown up - a switch to US LNG which was sent through UK´s LNG hubs because continental Europe preferred piped gas.]

“Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are all deeply value-destructive projects that will eat up almost half of Gazprom’s investments over the next five years. They are commonly perceived as being foisted on the company by the government pursuing a geopolitical agenda.”  

[MRT: So hitting on the Nordstream is about hitting on Russian income from hydrocarbons by destroying 5 years of Gaprom´s investment.]

16 Nov 2021 - EU ultimatum! Boris warns bloc must chose Russian gas pipeline or 'stick up for Ukraine'

[MRT: How can the UK make such interference statements into foreign policy of Germany? After Brexit the UK was not even part of EU´s security, strategy..] 

30 Jan 2022 - Nord Stream2 stops! Liz Truss issues ultimatum to Germany 'we cannot allow that to happen'

[MRT: Two ultimatums in a short span hints to seriousness of the situation for the UK.]  

31 Jan 2022 - I had a discussion with my colleague Foreign Minister Baerbock

...last week about precisely this issue, and I welcome the statements from her and Chancellor Scholz about Nord Stream 2, in which they were very clear that it will not go ahead in the event of a Russian incursion. We do need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. I welcome the work that the United States is doing to look at how supplies can be augmented, and we are working with partners across the middle east. This is a strategic issue for Europe and we do need to reduce dependence on Russian gas—there is no doubt about it.

[MRT. So Truss wants to go further than just sanctions.]

I have been very clear about our position on Nord Stream 2. More broadly, we need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. On the discussions taking place in various formats, we cannot have a situation in which Russian aggression is rewarded in any way. It has no auspices over Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we are very clear on that. What we are working on, and what tomorrow’s meeting of Foreign Ministers is about, is making sure that we are co-ordinating our positions across NATO, and we are very clear on those red lines.

13 March 2022 - Rishi Sunak urges UK companies to stop investing in Russia

[M: Note this post: 051 - Rishi Sunak´s 2017 report about (legal) vulnerability of subsea internet cables. Is there a connection?]  

9 Aug 2022 - Johnson ‘absolutely certain’ next PM will offer more help on paying bills

[M: Was the fate of Nordstream already decided? Knocking out Russian energy would bring energy prices up which in turn could help UK to invest in unprofitable wind, solar and utilize its LNG to send extra gas to energy starved EU taking in fees. His statement could also mean low income families will get some support to mitigate this expected increase.] 

26 Aug 2022 - Energy price cap: What Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak have promised

3 Sept 2022 - Zelensky exclusive: Threat from ‘Putin the Nazi’ outweighs pain of rising energy bills

The Ukrainian leader praises Boris Johnson, criticises Macron and Scholz and says western cost of living fears are ‘incomparable’ with the threat from Russia. 

[MRT: Is the plan o knock out Nordstream already in place and Zelenski is "in the know"?]

Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to talk about Boris Johnson in the past tense.

Under Johnson, Britain was one of the first nations to donate weapons to Ukraine as the countdown to the Russian invasion began last winter. While nervous European leaders dawdled, Johnson led the pack..

6 Sept 2022 - 'As strong as the storm will be, Britain is stronger'

[MRT: In just 3 weeks Nordstream is blown up] 

6 Sept 2022 - Truss Drafts £130 Billion Plan to Freeze UK Energy Bills

[MRT: Exactly as BoJo predicted. Could be in preparation to the vent where energy prices may get higher.]  

6 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss delivered her first speech as British prime minister on Tuesday after being formally invited by Queen Elizabeth II to form a government.

"I am confident that together we can ride out the storm"

[MRT: The frequency of statements about "disruptive external event" has increased. Note this post: 202 - Kwasi Kwarteng The -1 Day: "...if there is an exogenous, extreme event..."]   

Liz Truss delivered her first speech as British prime minister on Tuesday after being formally invited by Queen Elizabeth II to form a government.

The new prime minister said her top priorities are to cut taxes, boost energy security and improve the country's health care system.

"We shouldn't be daunted by the challenges we face," she said outside No. 10 Downing Street. "As strong as the storm may be, I know that the British people are stronger. Our country was built by people who get things done. We have huge reserves of talent, of energy and determination. I am confident that together we can ride out the storm."

8 Sept 2022 - New British PM Liz Truss announces a cap on energy bills to combat cost-of-living crisis

10 Sept 2022 - Portrait of the week: Truss in, Johnson out and Nord Stream 1 off

Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister, said in a speech outside 10 Downing Street: ‘Boris Johnson delivered Brexit, the Covid vaccine and stood up to Russian aggression. History will see him as a hugely consequential prime minister.’ For her part: ‘I am confident that together we can ride out the storm.’

12 Sept 2022 - Truss fixes UK energy prices for two years, at great cost

[MRT: What is the rationale for doing this and why 2 years?] 

19 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss: Soaring energy prices are a “price worth paying”

The Prime Minister highlighted the role of the ‘energy price guarantee’ scheme as pressure from struggling businesses mount

Hours after the end of the period of national mourning, Liz Truss said that high energy bills are a “price worth paying” to boost the UK’s energy security.

Liz Truss told reporters during her trip to the United Nations general assembly in New York: “The point I am making is that it’s a price worth paying for Britain because our long-term security is paramount.” 

[MRT: Note BoJo´s previous statement that Nordstream effects greatly UK´s own security so he and Truss even give ultimatums to Germany - the main European ally where Nordstream exits to]   

20 Sept 2022 - Prime Minister Liz Truss announces Energy Price Guarantee plan to combat rising electricity and gas bills

[MRT: Just a week before Nordstream is blown up.]  

  20 Sept 2022 -  Rising energy bills ‘price worth paying’ for Ukraine support, says Liz Truss

[MRT: Is this some kind of double-speak to say that Nordstream will be blown up without saying it?]  

  

II. Is this official UN announcement that the UK is taking down Nordstream? 

21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)

01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."

06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."

 

"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."

"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.

We must do this together."

We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.

08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.

The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action. 

The response has been built on partnerships and alliances and also on being prepared to use new instruments – unprecedented sanctions, diplomatic action, and rapid military support. 

There has been a strength of collective purpose – we have met many times, spoken many times on the phone, we have made things happen.

Now we must use these instruments in a more systematic way to push back on the economic aggression of authoritarian regimes.

The G7 and our like-minded partners should act as an economic NATO, collectively defending our prosperity.

If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.

12:00 min "In all these areas, on all of the fronts, the time to act is now. This is a decisive moment in our history, in the history of this organization and in the history of freedom...

The story of 2022 could have been that of an authoritarian state rolling its tanks over the border of a peaceful neighbour and subjugating its people.

Instead, it is the story of freedom fighting back.

In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through.

But this cannot be a one-off.

This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values."

Britain’s commitment to this is total.

We will be a dynamic, reliable and trustworthy partner.

[MRT: What is this? A confession? A warning to allies "we were upfront announcement our intentions and plans - why do you act so surprised?" kind of message inserted for these who carefully listen? Some kind of bragging or else?]  

CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

• Was the UK involved in Nordstream affair? Possibly - see here.

• Was the UK preparing for a case where Russian hydrocarbons would be taken out off the market? Definitely. See here.  

• That is what the official investigation will find out (hopefully). 

• The issue is whether results could be announced as there are serious security implications for Europe and UK - see here. 

• Was the saboteur calculating with this legal stalemate to : happen? See here. 

SUM

Weather forecast is based on data. What Data did UK have to put real long term investment to position themselves for time that energy price will be long term high?

The UK became after 44 years net energy exporter in 4/2022.*

There is a possibility that this could be a strong economical motive post Brexit. See more.

   

RELATED POSTS:

147 - The UK´s helps Ukraine to purchase more gas before the Nordstream is blown-up

041 - Brexit as a root-cause of UK´s instabilities

010 - Mackinder Roadblocks against Euro-Asian development & integration

002 - UK government does not like Nordstream

003 - Historical ROOTS of Nordstream affair

032 - Attempts To 'Renormalize' Relations With Russia were curbed

040 - Which western companies in Russia’s oil and gas exited before Nordstream affair?

202 - Kwasi Kwarteng The -1 Day: "...if there is an exogenous, extreme event..."

OTHER UK RELATED POSTS

most of the research about UK´s role, motives has been conducted in 2023

The summary is here:

121 - Hersh´s claim vs Hard data - and - Mortymer´s Nordstream hypothesis recap

***

- INDEX -

***

Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.

I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

mortymer001

(retweet and follow)

041 - Brexit as a root-cause of UK´s instabilities

PREFACE/ISSUE

Brexit has caused tectonic shift for the whole European region

SUMMARY:

Brexit has intensified the UK's vulnerabilities, prompting a reevaluation of its energy and security structures in the face of new geopolitical realities.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Long term opposition to Russian energy exports: Boris Johnson stresses his implications to the pipeline that extend well beyond what is in Germany’s economic self-interest already in 2018.

Brexit's Diminished Influence: Brexit has significantly undercut the UK's political and economic power, reducing its influence over European matters. This shift raises concerns over the UK's ability to negotiate and advocate for its interests effectively. The gradual withdrawal from EU affairs is accompanied with economical rise of Russia and rise of its influence through economical ties with EU members. The UK has found its political and economical influence substituted by old rival.

EU Energy market Coupling mechanism: The UK's departure from the EU's internal energy market in January 2021 has significant implications for its energy security. By leaving the EU, the UK no longer benefits from energy market coupling, which allowed for optimized energy trading and access to potentially cheaper electricity from EU countries. This has resulted in increased energy prices and reduced security, as the UK must rely more heavily on its own resources without the integrated support from the EU. 

Integrated Review: The 2021 integrated review (into foreign, security and defence policy) correctly identified Russia as the greatest threat

Concerns over Nord Stream 2: The UK perceives Nord Stream 2 and Russian hydrocarbon exports in general as a geopolitical risk that strengthens Russia's reach and jeopardizes European security. High-profile officials, such as Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, have voiced apprehensions about the pipeline's potential to heighten Europe's dependency on Russian energy supplies and threaten Ukraine's sovereignty. The UK has openly voiced the project to be its both national security and economical risk.

Limited Response Options: The UK's ability to legally and administratively obstruct the Nord Stream 2 project has been constrained by its post-Brexit position. The analysis suggests that military intervention could be one of the few remaining avenues to halt the project, notwithstanding the expectation that sanctions would ultimately be rescinded.

Energy Strategy Shifts: In response to these vulnerabilities, the UK has aimed to diversify its energy sources, decrease dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, and enhance domestic energy production. These strategies reflect a broader transition from being an energy importer to becoming an exporter. The UK has achieved to become net energy exporter just 3 days after Nordstream was attacked on 29th of September 2022. 

Toward developing alternative energy resources: The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, which has been a key conduit for Russian gas to Europe, could potentially enhance the UK's energy position by pushing European nations to seek alternative energy sources, including imports from the UK. This shift reduces Europe's dependency on Russian energy and may lead to more favorable trade conditions for UK energy exports, especially renewable energy. Additionally, increased prices for energy in Europe can create lucrative opportunities for the UK to export its own energy resources, thus boosting its energy security and economic resilience amid global market volatility.

Long term preparations: by promoting domestic energy production like opening more North Sea licenses, investing in developing offshore wind, investing in First UK-Germany power link, allowing fracking, diversifying supply sources, and reaching out to alternative energy exporters like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar in advance to highlight its possible role in becoming larger European energy hub, the UK is establishing a more robust energy strategy, positioning itself as a crucial player in European energy security

Plan of becoming energy supplier: At the 30 March 2022 meeting of the UK-EU Specialised Committee on Energy, the UK and EU agreed to facilitate regular exchanges on the security of supply. They specifically discussed establishing a Working Group on Security of Supply as a matter of priority. This is because there is insufficient LNG import capacity within the EU, but spare capacity in the UK as well as capacity on the pipelines from the UK to mainland Europe. 

040 - Which western companies in Russia’s oil and gas exited before Nordstream affair?

 PREFACE/ISSUE

The Nordstream affair was a job of a government.

It would make sense to push company to exit early from Russian energy.

28 Feb 2022 - BP and Shell Are Leaving Russia. These Other Oil Companies Could Face Pressure Next...

I. Companies which were operating in Russian gas and oil markets:

BP (UK)

BP's global headquarters is located in London, United Kingdom. The company has a significant presence in many countries around the world and operates in over 70 countries.

BP was the biggest foreign investor in the Russian oil and gas industry, with a significant stake in the state-owned oil company Rosneft. However, BP decided to abandon its stake in Rosneft, which resulted in a cost of up to $25 billion. As a consequence of this move, BP's oil and gas reserves were reduced by half. Shell also decided to follow BP's lead and divest its exposure in the Russian oil and gas industry.

27 Feb 2022 - BP to Exit Rosneft Stake and May Take a $25 Billion Hit

27 Feb 2022 - BP to Exit From Stake in Russia’s Rosneft Following Pressure From U.K.

28 Feb 2022 - Shell to divest from Gazprom, Nord Stream 2 

28 Feb 2022 - Shell exits Nord Stream 2, In addition, the company will also withdraw from the Sakhalin-2 project 

28 Feb 2022 - Shell’s exit from Gazprom intensifies pressure on Total and Exxon 

3 May 2022 - BP posts $20B quarterly net loss on Russia exit 

SHELL (DUT, UK, int.)

Shell's global headquarters is located in The Hague, Netherlands. The company also has a registered office in London, United Kingdom. Shell is a multinational oil and gas company with operations in over 70 countries, and it has regional headquarters located in different parts of the world, such as Houston (North America), Singapore (Asia Pacific), and Dubai (Middle East and North Africa).

Some of the largest institutional shareholders of Shell include The Vanguard Group, Inc., BlackRock, Inc., Norges Bank Investment Management, and State Street Global Advisors.

The company owns a 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas project, has interests in the Salym Petroleum oil project with Gazprom Neft, and a venture for hydrocarbon development at Gydan Arctic peninsula. Additionally, Shell was one of the five co-financiers of the Nord Stream 2 project.

Despite having a significant presence in the Russian oil and gas industry, Shell decided to leave its Russian partnerships.   

CHEVRON (USA)

25 Feb 2022 - Chevron says monitoring Russia situation, can adjust crude supply

3 March 2022 - While other oil majors pull out of Russia, Chevron says Caspian pipeline is ‘key’ 

EXXONMOBIL (USA)

2 March 2022 - ExxonMobil faces logistical challenges leaving Russia

17 Oct 2022 - Exclusive: Exxon exits Russia empty-handed with oil project 'unilaterally terminated'

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) said on Monday that it left Russia completely after President Vladimir Putin expropriated its properties following seven months of discussions over an orderly transfer of its 30% stake in a major oil project. 

HALLIBURTON (USA)

9 Sept 2022 - Halliburton Completes Russia Exit Over Ukraine War

“The Russia-based management team now owns and operates Halliburton’s former business and assets in Russia under the name BurService LLC, which is independent from Halliburton,” the multinational said in a statement. 

Halliburton did not disclose the terms of the sale. Its Russian assets were valued at $340 million prior to the exit.  

EQUINOR (NOR)

25 May 2022 - Equinor exits all Joint Ventures in Russia

Since then, Equinor has halted all new investments into Russia, stopped trading oil and gas products from Russia and announced an impairment of USD 1.08 billion on the balance sheet as of 31 March 2022.

Equinor has now transferred its participating interests in four Russian joint ventures to Rosneft and is released from all future commitments and obligations. An agreement to exit the Kharyaga project has also been signed.

The exit from all Joint Ventures has been completed in accordance with Norwegian and EU sanctions legislation related to Russia. 

UNIPER (GER)

17 Feb 2023 - Uniper Says It Will Overcome Russian Gas Issues By 2024

BASF (GER)

BASF, a German chemicals maker, has exposure to the Russian oil and gas industry through its co-ownership of Wintershall Dea, a company that is one of the financial backers of the suspended Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Wintershall Dea is co-owned by BASF and the Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman's LetterOne investor group. Additionally, BASF generates 1% of its group sales from Russia. In Russia, Wintershall Dea owns a 35% stake in the Yuzhno-Russkoye gas field, with partners Gazprom and Austria’s OMV.

Wintershall Dea also jointly works with Gazprom at the Achimov Development gas-producing project in Russia.

18 Jan 2022 - Germany’s BASF takes huge write-downs as unit exits Russia 

16 June - BASF subsidiary profits from Germany’s Russian gas addiction

Despite the war in Ukraine, in 2022 the chemical giant’s subsidiary Wintershall has piped €14 billion worth of Russian gas across Germany and made €400 million from its Siberian gas and oil fields. 

12 Oct 2022 - BASF to slash costs in Europe, takes writedown on Nord Stream 1

 “Continuing to operate in Russia is not tenable,” Wintershall Dea CEO Mario Mehren said.

He added that limitations imposed by Russia on Western-owned assets had made it impossible to operate properly “and resulted in an economic expropriation of the joint ventures in Russia”.

The company specified that Russian presidential decrees had retroactively slashed the prices at which joint ventures can sell their oil and gas to Kremlin-controlled Gazprom. 

25 Oct 2022 - The biggest corporate victim of Europe’s energy crisis may be a $93 billion chemical giant whose flagship plant uses as much gas as Switzerland 

OMV (AUT)

18 Jan 2023 - OMV: not yet made final decision on asset in Russia

Austria's OMV (OMVV.VI) has not yet made a final decision on its asset in Russia, the company said on Wednesday, following BASF's (BASFn.DE) announcement that its subsidiary Wintershall Dea (WINT.UL) would exit the country. 

ENI (ITA)

2 March 2022 - Italy's Eni to pull out of Russia-Turkey natural gas pipeline

Italian oil giant Eni said Tuesday it would withdraw from the Blue Stream gas pipeline linking Russia to Turkey, in which it has a 50% stake.

ENGIE (FRA)

3 March 2022 - France's Engie to continue Russian gas purchases on energy market 'tensions'

Engie said it did not engage in any industrial activity in Russia and no investment projects were underway on Russian territory.

However, Engie was one of five European energy companies that helped finance the construction of the suspended Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.

"Engie, as a lender, is exposed to Eur987million of credit risk which could impact its accounts in the event of Nord Stream 2 filing for insolvency," it said.

The Switzerland-based operator of Nord Stream 2 on March 2 denied reports it had filed for bankruptcy, saying it had only informed local authorities that it had terminated employee contracts.

Numerous media reports, citing sources and Swiss officials, on March 1 said Nord Stream 2 AG had filed for insolvency or was planning to after US sanctions were imposed against the company on Feb. 23.

Engie, along with Shell, Austria's OMV, and Germany's Wintershall Dea and Uniper, each pledged to loan Eur950 million to help build Nord Stream 2.  

TOTALENERGIES (FRA)

9 Dec 2022 - TotalEnergies to ‘gradually withdraw’ from Russian investments

World’s fifth-largest oil firm finally bows to pressure after invasion of Ukraine, removing representatives from Novatek board.

1 Sept 2022 - The CEO of @TotalEnergies, @PPouyanne, explains the reality

...of the consequences of the sanctions against #Russie: the loss of billions of euros of investments given as gifts to the Kremlin, if ever #Total withdraws, as the entails a disconnected media-political caste. 

Because, if we leave Russia, we give all the assets and infrastructures to Russia, and Russia know how to use it... so it will be a gift for the Kremlin. [credit to LuxFree @LuxFree3 for pointing this out] 

II. The divesting from Russia did not go as planned

3 Jan 2023 - BP Still In Spotlight Over Incomplete Russia Exit

Sonnenfeld has told Bloomberg that he noticed an unusual pattern as U.S. businesses started withdrawing from Russia: the first movers actually were oil giants with complex local ties and huge sunk costs; and tech companies wary of the political complications and professional firms that hate to offend their clients rather than consumer brands sensitive to public sentiment. 

31 Jan 2023 - Nearly a year on from the supposed Russian exodus, most major companies have yet to withdraw

After Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, companies across the G-7 major economies and the European Union announced plans to cease business operations in Russia.

Yet by the end of the year, very few had fully delivered on that promise, according to new research from Switzerland’s University of St. Gallen

The report published earlier this month documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine.

By November 2022, fewer than 9% of that pool of companies had divested at least one subsidiary in Russia

“Confirmed exits by EU and G7 firms that had equity stakes in Russia account for 6.5% of total profit before tax of all the EU and G7 firms with active commercial operations in Russia, 8.6% of tangible fixed assets, 8.6% of total assets, 10.4% of operating revenue, and 15.3% of total employees,” 

“These findings mean that, on average, exiting firms tended to have lower profitability and larger workforces than the firms that remain in Russia.” 

“These findings call into question the willingness of Western firms to decouple from economies their governments now deem to be geopolitical rivals,” Evenett and Pisani wrote.

“The study’s findings are a reality check on the narrative that national security concerns and geopolitics is leading to a fundamental unwinding of globalisation.” 

[M: I have been repeating over and over that business/trade always wins over politics in medium to long term. Example, see Vietnam - USA relations.] 

III. Politicians were very involved in motion to divest from Russia

2 March 2022 - US urges companies to comply with Russia-related sanctions

13 March 2022 - UK's Sunak urges firms to leave Russia

British finance minister Rishi Sunak called on more British companies on Sunday to wind down their existing investments in Russia and said new investments should be halted after President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.

CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

• It looks like the UK, US based oil/gas majors companies started the exit from Russia.
  
  
• The UK was very active in pursuing companies to leave RU market.
  
  

OTHER UK RELATED POSTS

most of the research about UK´s role, motives has been conducted in 2023

The summary is here:

121 - Hersh´s claim vs Hard data - and - Mortymer´s Nordstream hypothesis recap

***

- INDEX -

***

Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.

I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

mortymer001

(retweet and follow)

039 - Belgium & Nordstream affair

PREFACE/ISSUE

Exploring role of Belgium in Nordstream affair

My claim is that leaders know from early on who was behind yet they keep that secret due to geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

The Nordstream pipeline delivery routes were part of EU´n  energy security despite lowed deliveries in summer 2022.

 

Belgium is HQ of NATO and EU institutions. They are in the very centre of events.

There was a lot of coordination between EU leaders, leaders of NATO members  and it is assumed that the prime suspect and/or saboteur is well known. See e.g. here. 

Belgium

Belgium only relied on Russia for around 6 percent of its gas, and is instead a hub for supply to other countries in the European Union. 

The Belgian port of Zeebrugge is an important import centre for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Much of it is supplied by Qatar.

Nevertheless, high gas prices have affected households and industry.

I. Possible role of UK Astute class submarine S120 Ambush

12 Oct 2022 - This is our war as much as it is Ukraine’s, says UK defence procurement minister

[M: A UK nuclear submarine s120 Ambush has docked in Flaslane Scotland just a few days after the Nordstream affair. It is possible that it was involved in the attack on the Nordstream. The issue is described in earlies posts.]

 

8 Nov 2022 - Top secret operation is aborted after fire breaks out on nuclear sub as it heads for overseas base

 

A Royal Navy submarine which was fully armed with nuclear missiles aborted a top secret operation after a fire broke out onboard.

The £3billion HMS Victorious, which is one of Britain’s four Trident submarines, had been sailing to a base overseas when the electrical fire started six weeks ago.

The blaze, which destroyed an electrical converter, was quickly extinguished before the 30-year-old vessel returned to Scotland for repairs.

The 16,000-tonne sub is one of four that provides non-stop nuclear deterrent patrols - but was understood not to be in that role at the time. 

8 Nov 2022 -  British nuclear-armed sub resurfaces after fire onboard 

A Royal Navy nuclear-armed submarine had to abandon its mission and resurface, after a fire broke out onboard following an electrical fault. 

The Ministry of Defence said the incident on HMS Victorious happened six weeks ago.   

II. Politics

23 Sept 2022 - CNO and Commander of Belgian Navy Meet; Discuss Increasing Capabilities and Capacity

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday met with the Commander of the Belgian Navy Rear Adm. Jan de Beurme at the Pentagon for an office call, Sept. 23.

The leaders discussed building maritime capabilities and capacity, as well as deterrence, defense and the need to continue to protect the stability and prosperity of the seas.

“Collectively, our capacity expands when we sail in company with like-minded navies around the world, and we are grateful for the continued partnership and collaboration with Belgium,” said Gilday. “We will continue to strengthen the bonds we share through increased operations, interoperability, and continued cooperation."

Both heads of navy emphasized the need to develop high-end warfare capabilities, such as advanced mine countermeasures and ballistic-missile defense, while also leveraging enhanced capabilities and technology. The Belgian navy is currently leading a Belgian-Dutch mine countermeasures replacement program, which will supply the Belgian and Royal Netherlands navies with six new minehunter vessels each.

On 18 Oct 2022 Trident Refit Facility Kings Bay Dry Dock Completes Recapitalization Project; Holds Re-Opening Ceremony

25 Nov 2022 - 'Outrageous': Brussels sparks fury as it blocks export of nuclear defence tech to UK

The UK needs a so-called specialised isostatic press to maintain its nuclear arsenal, which includes the Trident II D5, the Royal Navy's ballistic missile system with a range of over 4,000 nautical miles

Britain and Belgium are locking horns in a furious despite after Brussels blocked the export of nuclear technology that plays a crucial role in maintaining the UK's nuclear deterrent.

 

III. Was UK planning to replace some Russian energy with alternatives as a policy to bring pipeline LNG and to develop alternatives?

24 September 2020 - UK can be 'Saudi Arabia of wind power' - PM Boris Johnson

12 May 2022 - Where will Britain’s future energy supply come from?

Russian imports supplied only 2.2% of energy used in the UK in 2021..

To account for future changes to gas and oil supply and secure more domestic resources, the Government plans to further utilise North Sea reserves alongside commissioning a scientific review of shale gas extraction.

The Institute for Government (IfG) said the security of the UK’s physical supply will “likely hold up” following possible Russian gas export disruptions to the EU, even without measures from the strategy, due to diversity of supply. 

17 May 2022 - EU energy security: Implications for the UK

How EU dependency on Russian energy affects the UK

The UK is far less reliant on Russian gas than the EU, but security of EU gas supply matters to the UK because:

• it affects the prices of UK gas and electricity;
• it could affect the UK’s own security of supply if gas imports into the UK were re-directed to the EU;
• energy exports are economically important to Russia and changes may therefore affect geopolitical relations.

UK-EU cooperation

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stimulated UK and EU cooperation on the security of energy supply. 

At the 30 March 2022 meeting of the UK-EU Specialised Committee on Energy, the UK and EU agreed to facilitate regular exchanges on the security of supply (PDF). They specifically discussed establishing a Working Group on Security of Supply as a matter of priority.

This is because there is insufficient LNG import capacity within the EU, but spare capacity in the UK as well as capacity on the pipelines from the UK to mainland Europe.30 May 2022 - Energy crisis: UK to become MAJOR exporter to EU with huge wind and solar boom

BRITAIN could soon find a way out of the energy crisis, as a new report suggests that the UK could receive a massive supply of green electricity.

28 August 2022 - PM Boris Johnson: The next few months will be tough but I’m convinced Britain’s bounceback will be golden 

We are ending our dependency on Russian hydrocarbons. In June, for the first time in decades, we did not import any fuel from Russia. The UK has already stepped up production of domestic gas – 26 per cent more this year than last. We are going to build a new  reactor every year and will have a colossal 50 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 – almost half our total electricity consumption. This British Energy Security Strategy is just a part of a vast  programme to make the economy more productive and competitive.  

30 August 2022 - Jacob Rees-Mogg meets energy giants in bid to boost North Sea oil and gas supplies

City A.M. understands the Brexit Opportunities Minister and Liz Truss-backer held talks with energy giants including Shell over recent days, ahead of a desperate winter which will see energy bills spike to new records – driven by fears of supply shortages.

He is also looking to seal deals with companies operating in the waters of friendly allies such as Norway.

There is confusion over whether Rees-Mogg met oil and gas companies in his role as a Minister or as a supporter of Truss – with multiple Government departments refusing to comment. 

Truss’ senior team has claimed the meetings were set up by civil servants, and was not linked to her campaign.

19 Dec 2022 - The United Kingdom re-engages with the North Seas Energy Cooperation

The United Kingdom (UK) is re-engaging with the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC). At a signing ceremony on Sunday evening, the UK has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with NSEC members the European Commission to this effect. This will help make the North Sea the renewables powerhouse of Europe. The NSEC is how North Seas countries collaborate on offshore wind. Cross-border cooperation is key to offshore wind. Countries need to coordinate how they develop their offshore wind farms and connect them to the grid and how they impact on biodiversity.

[M: Belgium is a hub through which UK gets its exports back to the European Energy market post Brexit expulsion from the  Market Coupling Initiative. See a post: Mission accomplished - UK - from Energy Importer to Energy Exporter]

 [M: The importance/connection to wind suggested by LuxFree @LuxFree3 here]

CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

• It looks like the UK is a rogue state and other states try to minimize its dangerous weapons.
  
  
• Blocking nuclear deterrent of a UN Security member council is a BIG issue. Only a BIG reason could be behind that.
  
  
• The Astute class nuclear submarine HMS S-120 Ambush is my prime delivery vehicle suspect - here 
  
  
• It was said that "If the criminal is bigger than the court, he can’t be found." (by Erik Andersson 🐘 @Erkperk - here) -> IF countries decided that they will not disclose who was it or delay the exposure as far as possible there should be indirect ways how to tell who has done it.
  
  
• That is main reason why no international investigation exists. Shareholders of Nordsgream AG are from Germany, France, Netherland and Russia. Nordstream 2 AG is fully owned by Gazprom with loans from same companies and countries as Nordstream AG. Both companies are incorporated in Switzerland - post here. 
  
  
• The suspect is a state actor. This means motives were part of wider policies - internal and external. UK fits as a prime suspect in both aspects - see here about UK energy security - Mission accomplished - UK - from Energy Importer to Energy Exporter

 

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- INDEX -

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