010 - Mackinder Roadblocks against Euro-Asian development & integration

Exploring my 2014 framed "Mackinder Roadblocks Hypothesis" in connection to Nordstream affair

SUMMARY:

The author presents the "Mackinder Roadblocks" theory positing that conflicts across Eurasia, such as those in Afghanistan or Ukraine, are engineered by external forces to obstruct the integration of substantial economic regions and the emergence of a formidable Euro-Asian bloc. 

This dynamic ultimately hampers the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative. 

The main observation is that the trend is unstoppable and inevitable, that roadblocks in terms of failed states, blocked infrastructure projects or intra-state security issues are being solved and development of the Euro-Asia is gaining avalanche style traction regardless of attempts to stop or slow it down.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

The author reinterprets Mackinder's Heartland theory, emphasizing the prevention of surplus economic area integration in Eurasia.

Proposed conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine are characterized as "Mackinder roadblocks," strategically created to thwart Euro-Asian integration.

External meddling, particularly from the US and UK (Anglo-Saxons), is identified as a key instigator of these conflicts.

The theory argues that the US and UK (Sea-Island powers) seek to control critical maritime chokepoints to inhibit the rise of a unified Euro-Asian economic power.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline is referenced as a pertinent example of such interference, aiming to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia.

The author anticipates the eventual dismantling of these roadblocks and the ascendance of a powerful Euro-Asian economic entity.

Over the last 10 years, world evets served as testing of the hypothesis validity and this theory has provided unexpectedly remarkable prediction power.

This hypothesis has not yet been published do to other important thigs to do ;o)

 

PREFACE/ISSUE

What do you get if you mix old Mackinder Heartland theory, Spykman, old Silk Roads, Chinese OBOR, replace Heartland and Rimland by Surplus Economic Areas and position in between Roadblocks on land chokepoints?

 

1. THEORETICAL PART:

1.2 What is the difference between Mackinder and Spykman?

In Mackinder there is one pattern of conflict in history - that between SeaPower and Heartland.

In Spykman, however, there are two—that between SeaPower and Heartland, and that between an independent Centre of power in the Rimland with both Seapower and Heartland allied against it.

Spykman was concerned with the balance of power, he arguing that isolationism, which relied on the oceans to protect the United States ("hemispheric" or "quarter defence"), was bound to fail. His aim was to prevent another US retreat, as had happened after the First World War. 

Spykman argued that it was in the America's interest to keep Germany 

strong after the Second World War to counter the power of Russia...

There are issues with his theory and critiques are written about it, and rightfully so. Spykman also does not explain all present observations.

 

1.2 What we are now experiencing is something different:

One Belt One Road / Belt and Road initiative (OBOR/BRI)

Is growing land trade problem for Sea Powers US, UK, Japan?
Yes, and they all created their own strategies

how to counter this development.

1.3 Merging Ancient Theories with Contemporary Geopolitics

Nicholas J Spykman stated that “Geography is the most fundamental factor in the foreign policy of states because it is the most permanent.”

What IF we replace the "Heartland" with "Integrated cooperative surplus EA economic areas" as the main Objective #I and forget Heartland, Rimland, Pivot area? What if we build Hypothesis around it?

5 E-A economic centres are surplus areas

The new "Mackinder Roadblocks theory against Euro-Asian integration" which I verbalised long before 2015 is based on observations that all conflicts in the region have created roadblocks to integration, namely in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and now Ukraine. 

 

These conflicts show remarkable similarities such as weakened state structures, fragmented political spectrum leading to instability, minimal investment in new infrastructure project, neglected existing infrastructure, emphasis on fighting insurrection, sanctions, corruption, small cross-border trade. 

Cordon sanitaire:

From China to Mediterranean Sea there is a Belt of Instability. 

EU-RU-CN-IN-ME economic Surplus Giants are kept apart.

1.4 Are latest conflicts on Euro-Asian continent external artificial interferences?

It does not appear that geographical, cultural, political, local rivalry or economic differences, but external interference in the stability of the region is behind the slower rate of development. Or is in a Large portion behind it.

Note that all these conflicts are not just local, they all involve global players.

The biggest geopolitical shifts are happening right now in Euro-Asia.

The 'Mackinder roadblock against Euro-Asian integration' theory is a concept in geopolitics which suggests that there is no inherent geographical barrier to the integration of the European and Asian landmasses and that integration into Large Super-surplus economical entity is ongoing, such that includes fragmented Surplus Giants.

The theory is based on the work of the British geographer and politician Sir Halford Mackinder, who argued that the "Heartland" of Eurasia - the vast, resource-rich area stretching from eastern Europe to central Asia - was a geopolitical pivot that would determine the balance of power in the world.

According to Mackinder's theory, whoever controlled the heartland would be able to dominate the rest of the world. He argued that Europe's coastal position made it vulnerable to attack from both east and west, and that the vast, landlocked heartland was the key to achieving geopolitical dominance.

Mackinder believed that a single landmass stretching from Europe to Asia would be too powerful and difficult to control, and that it was in the interests of the dominant powers to keep the heartland divided and fragmented.

Mortymer's new "Mackinder Roadblock against Euro - Asian Integration" theory, or rather the modified and fused old one, the latest modern iteration, is just another name for the antithesis to OBOR played by interfering foreign state actors and a way to prevent the rise of a united Euro-Asia. 

2. POSTULATES - SUPPORTING EVIDENCE:

Economics trumps politics (in medium to long time)

• The world economy is growing constantly, key areas on Euro Asian landmass are underdeveloped yet there is a slow progress

All major surplus economies are located on Euro-Asia (...) 

• Once these connect through landmass there will be the largest economical power for centuries to go.
• The EU with educated workforce, is great economical area 
• The Russia with its natural resources, plenty of energy
• The China with largest workforce, the factory of the world
• India, the rising economy
• Gulf energy exporters

  There are 2 "Mackinder islands" traders/gates to EuroAsia ()

• For US it is important that these both island states on E and W are allies or it would be harder to access EuroAsia without them

• Note that after WW2 USA swapped ally China to old enemy Japan and established itself in South Korea enabling access to the East EuroAsia.

• Note that Taiwan falls under the same category.  

• They both are "dying" economically, politically, militarily, their influence is diminishing.  

  The  are the outside "Island/naval power", needs to control seas, control of naval choke-points.

• The "Sea power" controls critical naval choke-poins (Panama, Suez, Gibraltar, Malacca, Danish straights, keeps Hormuz open)

The old Mackinder theory predicted that lots of World trade will move to railroad network. There is a lot of critique for the unfulfilled prediction. He could not predict the Cold war and situation after the Soviet empire broke apart. Vast majority of commodities are moved by sea.

  The is the only debtor of international monetary reserves.

• In Seventies, after the Vietnam war (November 1, 1955 – April 30, 1975) the USA was economically exhausted and was no more unable to create own surpluses. The Nixon team Kissinger/Volcker realized that US could turn tables to control surpluses of other nations. The perpetual $ machine funding its "TwinDeficits", "DeficitsWithoutTears", "Our currency, Your problem" was born. Yannis Varoufakis named it "Global Minotaur". The monetary gold has been "neutralized".

Africa, South America are ATM insignificant. They are not right now adding to the World GDP, not yet...

• Both sides (E-A/BRICS vs UK-US-eu_elements) will fight over them 

• Yet these will side with the new emerging SuperGiant entity (BRICS) 

• China has shown "this is the way" in development, out of poverty. 

The biggest threat to  is if EuroAsia integrates & unites.

• The USA/UK will fight the Euro-Asian integration teeth and nails but will ultimately fail. There will be BerlinWall_2.0 even at some point.

It was the  which imposed past first roadblocks, created Mackinder Gates.

• Roots of this theory go to post WW2  order in which USA switched its ally China to Japan (as to CTRL one gate to Euro-Asia) while supporting the Chinese part of government which was chased out from mainland and settled in Taiwan (similar like Japan UK). 

• Another main-stone is the control of West Germany preventing the emergence of Paris-Berlin-Moscow-Peking axis. 

• South Korea resembles Germany´s role in Europe. Both host US bases.

I call them #Mackinder #Roadblocks against E-A integration:

• There are 5 economical surplus Giants on E-A
• Separated by lesser underdeveloped states
• Cooperation rather than competition wins lately

 

• Lesser states under attack, forming failed states preventing E-A trade
• Afghanistan (20 years, let opium thrive, nothing built, prevented any development, created factions)
• Iraq (After unable to ctrl ISIS)
• Syria, UA...

OBOR has been systematically countered in targeted policies to weaken

governments, glow opposition, create failed states which are "made unstable". 

BChIM - Myanmar

CPAK - AFG, Pakistan

West Asia - Iraq, Syria

New Eurasia - Ukraine

  Ukraine affair as a next Mackinder Roadblock

• Puts wedge between EU and rest of Euro-Asia
• Weakens both Russia (great to blame) and EU (The USA's nr2 economical competitor)
• The USA raids European economy to scavenge value support for the $. 
• Kills all independenceideas those pesky EUpeans had. 

Afghanistan  Roadblock of 20 years

• Trade route choke-point
• The location is on several trade routes N-S Nd E-W.
• In past many empires had capitals in : Greco-Bactrians, Kushans, Indo-Sassanids, Kabul Shahi, Saffarids, Samanids, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, Kartids, Timurids, Hotakis and Durranis

Opium & Afghanistan

• The Opium wars in 19th century put China' dragon asleep, brought economic and political exploitation
• Taliban imposed ban in 2001 = 0t. Production under US occupation grew and peaked in 2021 at 7k t
• In 1st month promised development if phased out.
• The Afghanistan turned into Mackinder roadblock not just prevented land trade but also allowed exportation of heroin, radicalism and refugees which put growth in the central Asia down by dozens of years.
• Pipelines, railroads will be built.
• Projects are already discussed.

The Mackinder Gates to EuroAsia ( & ).

• They guard access to Euro-Asian landmass from E Nd W.
• Waged colonial empires to secure commodities.
• Both were at war with USA but are now allies due to synced objectives.
• Both will be side-lined if E-A integration grows.

 

  The European hot war as a part of this bigger picture.

• Could blow the #Nordstream? YES! Some US-UK interest? Also yes.
• Could they also green light and push for the Crimean bridge attack?
• Are objectives destructions or changes in Western and Russian policies?
• Is the objective to split two surplus economies to trade together before they establish too strong ties? Here is about Global Britain strategy. 

-> READ my posts:

UK government does not like Nordstream

London's attempts to implement ‘Global Britain’ concept failed 

The role of JEF & NATO MARCOM in Nordstream Affair

  Three Major Naval trade choke-points unblocked.

• On 24th of August 2022 BRICS announced expansion by Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina. The new members increased the share of World´s GDP in PPP to 37% and population to 46%. The block found itself with 3 major advantages:   

 

• Extension of the OBOR branch to Africa (point 9., pic 2.) 

 

• Further integration and cooperation between major energy exporters (Russia, KSA, Iran, UAE) 

• Control of 3 major naval trade chokepoints

 

CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

The Ukraine case shows features similar to what has been seen in Afgnanistan, Syria, Iraq and even Libya. These together for a pattern.'

It looks like Ukraine is a new Roadblock on the old Silk-road, new pressure point has been erected.

Next failed/weaken broken state - Ukraine - full of weapons (US left lots of weapons in AFG, Iraq), full of heat, many fighting factions, political instability, local insecurity, scars and a nest for future problem, bottlenecks for peaceful development and trade.

PREDICTIONs:

• Majority of Mackinder Roadblocks will be in time dismantled 

• There will be attempts to re-establish old Roadblocks and create new ones  

• E-A economic areas will experience bigger growth than RoW

• EU will occasionally open to both sides East and West

• EU will create own security alliance, NATO will breakup or morph 

  

Note about developing the thought of the "Mackinder Roadblocks" theory:

• Here is the oldest instance I found I posted about - twitter link 

(8:41 PM · Oct 16, 2015)

• and here the sheer list of my posts about the topic: - twitter link

(Twitter query "Mortymer001 Mackinder", column "Latest")

• I am using new HashTag #Mackinder #Roadblocks or #MackinderRoadblocks 

 SUM

Could this be one of the reasons (geo-political) for the Nordstream as it helps to put a wedge between EU and Russia with its vast resources? 

After me posting and writing about my theory hundreds of times we get this:

Update 04/052022 - Seems Russian Security Council agrees with my theory:

Russia Security Council Secretary: "Russia is a bone in the throat of the West, which is trying to create its own world order. Even more than a hundred years ago, the English geographer Mackinder formulated the well-known theory of the geographical axis of history and the so-called Heartland, that is, the middle land occupied by Russia. He argued that control of the Heartland meant domination of the World Island, as he called Eurasia. Dominance over the Heartland, in his opinion, creates the basis for control over the Eurasian space, and this in turn leads to global dominance.

He also owns the idea of ​​isolating our state with the help of the so-called cordon sanitaire separating the small countries of Eastern Europe from Russia. The initiative to separate Ukraine , as well as other national outskirts of the former empire, also came from Mackinder. So many years have passed, but their goals have not changed."

 

RELATED POST:

(part II.)

143 - Euro Asian Trade bottleneck countries in Mackinder Roadblocks hypothesis

018 - Sinking ships to Denmark, cutting cables to Germany - The UK has done it in the past

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- INDEX -

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