Tuesday, August 20, 2024

164 - Security Law: Guidelines for Grey Zone Naval Incidents

Security Law:  
Guidelines for Grey Zone Naval Incidents: 
Distinguishing between the Rules of Armed Conflict and Law Enforcement


Source - link

By: Alexander Lott

PDF Version: Alexander Lott_Guidelines for Grey Zone Naval Incidents_NCLOSblog_290422

Matter commented on: Hybrid naval warfare; Distinction between naval warfare and maritime law enforcement


1. Introduction...

This short blog post aims to provide guidance for parties to hybrid naval warfare for determining whether the rules of armed conflict or law enforcement are applicable to various situations where force has been used against ships. 

2. Use of Force by State Vessels against Attacks Launched from Commercial Ships

Force may be used to defend a government ship or warship against an attack that has been launched by private persons on-board a commercial ship or structure (e.g., a platform).

For example, the use of force may be necessary to counter a terrorist attack launched by explosive-laden boats or in response to irregulars who use a commercial oil platform as their base. Notably, if the government ship or warship was attacked by such private persons that were not acting on behalf of a foreign State and nor was a foreign State substantially involved in such attack by non-State actors, then the victim State cannot invoke the right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter (1986 Judgment of the ICJ ... 

[MRT: Note that Russia has not retaliated] 

Definition of Aggression, Art 3(g)).

The ICJ has found that: “Article 51 of the Charter thus recognizes the existence of an inherent right of self-defence in the case of armed attack by one State against another State.”

[MRT: Note that USA has tried to de-escalate before the event happened and NATO put straight message that any retaliation will be met with a joint response.]  

... 

Nonetheless, the victim State may invoke the right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter if it can prove another State’s substantial involvement in the attack that was carried out by non-State actors.

[MRT: Can the Russia prove the approach by a UK submarine? Of the Ukrainian involvement?] 

For this, the victim State needs to show that:

    • The State suspected of sponsoring non-State actors meets the characteristics of “sending by or on behalf of a state of armed bands, groups, irregulars or mercenaries, which carry out acts of armed force against another state” (Definition of Aggression, Art 3(g)).

[MRT: Note that top West officials started straight from the beginning claim it was a "Sabotage" and not an "Armed attack".] 

    • “Such an operation [of non-State actors], because of its scale and effects, would have been classified as an armed attack rather than as a mere frontier incident had it been carried out by regular armed forces” (1986 Judgment of the ICJ in Military and Paramilitary Activities in and against Nicaragua, para. 195).

If the victim State is successful in claiming that it has the right of self-defence against attacks launched by non-State actors, then its use of force under jus in bello must still comply with the limitations of necessity and proportionality

3. Use of Force against a Commercial Ship in a Law Enforcement Operation

Law enforcement officials, particularly Navy’s high-ranking military officers in cases where they are performing law enforcement in geopolitically sensitive situations, e.g., in disputed areas, must take caution that they issue clear orders to private persons against whom they are enforcing the coastal State’s law...

Where force is used for stopping a ship, it needs to follow the principle of proportionality. Law enforcement officials or Navy servicemen onboard State-owned ships need to exercise self-restraint when they are using force against commercial ships; use of force “must be avoided as far as possible”...

[MRT: Imagine a scenario in which Germany, France, USA learn about the active mission by the UK against the Nordstream system. Would it be possible to stop it without causing international crisis? ]  

Thus, in maritime enforcement, for the use of force to be lawful, it needs to be employed as a last resort. This means that it needs to be clearly shown that other, less-intrusive options for stopping a commercial ship had been exhausted.

[MRT: This investigation opens the possibility, which vast data support, that Norway warned USA and allies against an active attempt for destruction of the Nordstream system. In this case the USA, Allies should be checked for possible contacts the week before the event.]

4. State vs. State Scenario

Determining whether the rules of armed conflict or law enforcement apply in situations where one State has used force against ships of another flag State can be difficult. On this question, there are contradictory views and considerable amount of ambiguity in the relevant case law and legal literature. The following sections are based on a differentiation between so-called tanker war scenario and clashes between warships or government ships of conflicting States...

[MRT: Is the presence of Danish and Swedish navies in the area near Bornholm the week before the event. Were they unsuccessfully trying to stop the perpetrator? The issue is, neither Danish not Swedish ship has any relationship toward the pipeline which is co-owned by Germany/Austria, Netherland, France and Russia. Were these informed about what kind of activities were happening there?] 

4.1. ‘Tanker war’ Scenario 

For invoking the right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter in response to attacks against commercial ships, it is necessary for a State to show, inter alia, that:

    • There is persuasive evidence that the suspected State bears responsibility for carrying out such attacks

    • The State responsible for the attack intentionally and systemically targeted ships flying the flag of the State that invokes the right of self-defence and that the attacks were not indiscriminate, e.g., a mine or missile was simply aimed to hit some target 

    • The attack caused significant damage, either to ships, their crew, or goods.

    • The attacked commercial ships, whatever their ownership, were flying the flag of the State that claims the right of self-defence so that the attacks on the commercial ships can be equated with an attack on that State  
4.2. Warship/Government Ship vs. Warship/Government Ship Scenario

Under the LOSC, both warships and government ships (e.g., Coast Guard vessels) are entitled to perform law enforcement operations and may use force in that capacity

 [MRT: What kind of naval activities  were Danish and Swedish navies executing near Bornholm the week before the event?] 

5. Conclusion

The ICJ’s ‘gravity threshold’ for triggering the right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter leaves a significant room of manoeuvre for States to employ low-intensity use of force against adversaries. Legally speaking, this facilitates the ambiguous domain of hybrid naval warfare that exceeds the level of maritime law enforcement but falls below the threshold of an armed attack under Article 51 of the UN Charter. The victim State will likely be seen as falling under the de minimis threshold and needs to comply with Article 2(4) of the UN Charter when employing law enforcement or criminal law-based measures to counter such attacks that fall below the ‘gravity threshold’ of an armed attack, as set by the ICJ.

Consequently, the victim State’s use of arms needs to strictly stay within the confines of the limits of proportionality that are narrower in the law enforcement and criminal law paradigms as compared to the right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

In border-line cases, even international judicial bodies may be unable to definitely classify certain maritime incidents in their ex post assessments as either falling to the law enforcement or military operations category.

The different approach adopted by the ICJ in the Oil Platforms case entails that a victim State in a low-intensity hybrid naval warfare risks the possibility of being eventually dubbed as an aggressor State if it has subjectively deemed itself entitled to the right of self-defence. Whereas the objective ex post assessment (as made by, e.g., international courts and tribunals) reaches the opposite conclusion that the initial aggression did not meet the threshold of most grave form of the use of force.


Note that this is not my post but a repost of most important and relevant parts from this article:

Source - link

By: Alexander Lott

PDF Version: Alexander Lott_Guidelines for Grey Zone Naval Incidents_NCLOSblog_290422

Matter commented on: Hybrid naval warfare; Distinction between naval warfare and maritime law enforcement


This post tries to highlight the difficulty of the legal case which I stated a year ago...

In no way experts could judge that the case has been a "sabotage", an "armed attack", "terrorist act" or else without prior knowledge of the perpetrator, knowledge how the act has been done and if directly or via proxy. Last, the definition was proposed by certain leaders just a day AFTER the event which speaks volumes about the exact knowledge of the rogue actor.

POST: Who said it is a "Sabotage" first?



[MRT: See? I have said this exactly over a year ago!]
 

Conclussion:

The whole EU leadership is COMPROMISED.

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Friday, August 9, 2024

163 - Nordstream affair - The planning begins

  Truss About cutting off Russian oil and gas exports Once and for all


There are many statements by UK politicians, 
even from before 2022, 
listing some 2022 onward here:  

16 Feb 2022 - Energy crunch: How the UK could play crucial role if Russia turned off gas taps to Europe

Sky's Ed Conway examines how Europe could cope in the event Russia decided to leave some of its biggest customers out in the cold and finds post-Brexit Britain could provide the solution...

That bring us to perhaps the most unexpected answer. That hole could be filled by Britain. The UK could send North Sea gas directly to Europe, through its pipelines, and then replenish its own gas network with LNG imported from the US, Qatar or other suppliers.

There are a couple of important reasons why the UK would end up as a supplier (or rather the pipeline) of last resort.


27 February 2022 - British foreign minister Liz Truss said on Sunday she would press for further measures against Russia, particularly in cutting off their oil and gas supplies, at a meeting with her counterparts in the G7 group of rich nations.

27 Feb 2022 - First Truss revealed her fears about western reliance on Russian energy supplies, saying: ‘Some European countries have 85% of their gas coming from Russia.

‘What we need to do is agree with our G7 counterparts to reduce that percentage over time.

‘I would support the idea of having ceilings on how much oil and gas is imported from Russia, so that over time we cut the dependency right across Europe. That is what we are working towards with our G7 partners.’

She went on: ‘The real objective is to degrade the Russian economy because what we know is Putin’s war machine is funded by revenues from oil and gas. So what we have to do is reduce dependency on oil and gas.’

2 March 2022 - UK gov study "Geopolitical implications of Nord Stream 2

The UK government position - part 4

Implications for Ukraine - Nord Stream 2 has implications for Ukraine. Although not a huge importer of Russian gas, Ukraine is a major transit country of current Russian gas pipelines into Europe. Transit fees are thought to account for almost 3% of Ukraine’s GDP, which will bring an expected revenue of $2-3 billion annually over the next five years.

2 March 2022 - Royal Navy divers create elite mission teams to meet evolving needs

3 March 2022 - We need to make sure the Russian economy is crippled - UK's Truss

The West needs to ensure the Russian economy is crippled so that President Vladimir Putin it is unable to continue his invasion of Ukraine, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on Thursday.

"We need to ... degrade the Russian economy," Truss said during a news conference in Lithuania. "We need to make sure ... that the Russian economy is crippled so it is unable to continue to fund Putin and the war machine."

4 March 2022 - Cutting the Cord: Ending Europe’s Energy Dependency on Russia 
                                   TONY BLAIR INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

As long as Europe remains heavily reliant on Russian energy, we have an Achilles heel.

With 40 per cent of the continent’s gas imports and 25 per cent of its oil imports coming from Russia, European countries urgently need a long-term plan to curb this dependency – especially if Putin remains on his current trajectory.

Such a plan requires urgent coordination between the EU and its partners to lay out both short-term measures and a longer strategic vision for greater energy security.

Our paper shows how this can be accomplished...

9 March 2022 - Truss: The Ukraine crisis is a wake-up call for free democracies.

I am in the US to take forward support for Ukraine, degrading the economy funding Putin’s war machine, and isolating Russia internationally: Putin must be held to account. Putin must fail in Ukraine. 
9 March 2022 - Truss: Met @SecBlinken and agreed more action is needed to hold Putin to account for his barbaric invasion of Ukraine. 

We must reduce dependency on Russian oil & gas, isolate Russia internationally, and keep supporting Ukraine  

10 March 2022 - UK foreign minister: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a ‘paradigm shift on the scale of 9/11’

"If we are to persuade Putin and future Putins that we are serious, we need to do things differently."

First of all, we must end the strategic dependence which puts our economies and security at the risk and mercy of malign actors. 

Europe remains deeply reliant on Russian energy. This provides a vital source of revenue for Putin, and it must end.

...The fundamental driver of the Russian economy is oil and gas, and the absolute key has to be reducing dependency on oil and gas. And I recognize many European countries are very dependent.... 

24 March 2022 - Spoke to @WBHoekstra

...about further coordinated sanctions against Putin and those who support him. The Netherlands and UK will continue to firmly and swiftly impose crippling economic measures on Russia’s war machine. 

2 April 2022 - Truss: We cannot rest till Ukraine prevails and Vladimir Putin fails

AS the horror in Ukraine enters its seventh week, Britain is leading global efforts to ensure Vladimir Putin loses.

We have stepped up with our allies and partners to strengthen our Ukrainian friends in their fightback and to hit his regime where it hurts with sanctions. But we are not stopping there...

This is post-Brexit Global Britain in action — muscular, assertive and decisive at a time of global peril.  

4 April 2022 - Foreign Secretary to visit Poland to call for tougher action to tackle Russian aggression

Britain has helped lead the way with sanctions to cripple the Putin war machine. We will do more to ramp up the pressure on Russia and we will keep pushing others to do more. 

6 April 2022 - Truss: We're going further to cripple Putin’s war machine.

Today I have announced our toughest sanctions yet - targeting Russia's energy industry, as well as hitting more banks, businesses and oligarchs who are financing Russia's abhorrent crimes in Ukraine. 

6 April 2022 - Truss: The West must show Putin its collective strength: article by Liz Truss 

7 April 2022 - UK updates its energy security strategy 

7 April 2022 - Russia has brought barbarity and devastation to Ukraine.

I told @HouseofCommons that the UK must do everything we can to ensure Putin loses.

14 April 2022 -  Truss: NEW - UK sanctions Eugene Tenenbaum & David Davidovich, two key oligarchs and long-standing associates of Roman Abramovich.

Alongside #G7 and our partners, we will keep going with sanctions until Putin fails in Ukraine. Nothing and no one is off the table

15 April 2022 - The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

Admiral Sir Antony David Radakin, KCB, ADC, Chief of the Defence Staff
JEF recognises that the character of warfare has evolved, and the distinction between peace and war is not as clear as it once was.

The grey area this creates has allowed our adversaries to develop new ways of threatening us, and we recognise the need to counter this by protecting, engaging and constraining the threat.

We therefore see advantage in the JEF being able to take collective action below the traditional threshold of conflict, if necessary, before NATO declares Article V, in a complementary capacity to NATO. 

26 April 2022 - Liz Truss is ready to try and beat global aggressors at their own game 

27 April 2022 - Truss: The return of geopolitics: Foreign Secretary's Mansion House speech at the Lord Mayor's 2022 Easter Banquet

We now need a new approach, one that melds hard security and economic security, one that builds stronger global alliances and where free nations are more assertive and self-confident, one that recognises geopolitics is back.

Britain has always stood up to bullies. We have always been risk takers. So we are prepared be bold, using our strength in security and diplomacy, our economic heft, and our will and agility to lead the way...

Our sanctions have already seen Russia facing its first external debt default for a century. We need to go further. There must be nowhere for Putin to fund this appalling war. That means cutting off oil and gas imports once and for all.

27 June 2022 - We must ignore the defeatist voices who propose to sell out Ukraine: joint article by Liz Truss and Dmytro Kuleba

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote a joint article in The Telegraph about how to stop Putin's war in Ukraine.

It is therefore imperative that the G7 and NATO this week demonstrate that their commitment to Ukraine will never be surpassed by Putin’s determination to seize it. That means increasing and speeding up their supply of heavy weapons, continuing to sanction all those colluding in Putin’s war, and cutting off imports of Russian energy completely.

The UK is increasing its sanctions, with further legislation this week on a range of trade bans, and more to come over the next month. The free world, collectively, needs to bear down harder to cut Russia off from its key sources of foreign income: energy and other exports such as gold.

20 Sept 2022 - President @EmmanuelMacron and I are committed to working together to end reliance on Russian energy, deepening 🇬🇧🇫🇷 cooperation to reduce volatility in the market and cut costs for households.

Putin’s economic blackmail cannot and will not succeed. 

21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)

01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."

06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."

"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."

"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.

We must do this together."

We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.


***

The planning phase started after Brexit 
and continued gradually

***

The main driver for UK is the Energy in/Security

***

On 26 September 2022, 
a series of underwater explosions and consequent gas leaks 
occurred on the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) 
and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) natural gas pipelines

***

Nordstream affair - The Opening Act


***

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Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

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Thursday, August 8, 2024

162 - February 2022 - Germany suspends Nord Stream 2: Q&A on what happens next


25 February 2022 Germany suspends Nord Stream 2: Q&A on what happens next

 Those questions are: is Nord Stream 2 dead? Will Germany’s gas strategy change? How will it change the current official assessment of Germany and the EU’s security of supplyCan Nord Stream 2 AG sue Germany? Will Germany build its first LNG import terminal? What are the reactions from German and European Stakeholders?

1. What’s the significance of the decision to suspend the approval process? Is Nord Stream 2 dead?

...he decision does not necessarily mark the end of Nord Stream 2, which was completed in September 2021. For now, the government made use of a regulatory tool to halt the certification...

2. Does the German government reassess its position on natural gas with the decision?

... “Germany is and will remain an importing country for energy, even if the energy sources will be CO2-neutral in the long term,”...

3. What does the decision mean for supply security in Germany and Europe?

... Germany and many other European countries rely on Russian supplies to cover a high share of their energy needs. About half of Germany’s, and more than 40 percent of the EU’s, natural gas imports currently come from Russia and the country is also the main external supplier of coal and oil products to Europe. However, as Nord Stream 2 has not yet begun operation, stopping the pipeline’s completion alone would not mean any changes to current supply capacities...  the risk increases if the conflict and accompanying sanctions drag on until next winter. A straightforward response would be to reduce the amount of gas needed, rather than looking for new suppliers, the think tank concluded: “Whatever happens, the most efficient solution requires demand-side adjustments to reduce dependency on gas.”...


4. Can stopping Nord Stream 2 have legal repercussions for the German government?

If German authorities put a final stop to the use of the completed pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 company will likely resort to legal action. The German government could be faced with a compensation claim brought forward by the Nord Stream 2 AG operator...

...Before the court, the legitimate expectations of the plaintiff, for example positive signals given to Nord Stream 2 by receiving construction permits for the pipeline, are important arguments; while a changing political situation, even if caused by a crisis like the one in Ukraine, does not count as a valid argument, legal expert Gabriel Lentner told Tagesspiegel Background...

The ministry stressed that the supply security assessment (completed by the previous government in its very last weeks in office) is “based on an analysis of factual and legal fundamentals and can or must be adjusted in the event of a change in significant factual fundamentals” (Section 4b (3) EnWG). Both Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and patchy gas deliveries from Russia this winter are counting as such a change in “factual fundamentals”, minister Habeck indicated. How vulnerable the report will be to future legal action depends a lot on its actual wording and reasoning on how Nord Stream 2 endangers Germany’s supply security, legal experts told Die Welt. After the German government’s assessment, the European Commission also gets a say.


NOTE: [MRT: Read the full report] 


***

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Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
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Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

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161 - January 2022 - Biden, Blinken: Nord Stream 2 pipeline is ‘leverage’ for Europe against Russia


Anthony Blinken (left) and Sergei Lavrov met in Reykjavik, May 2021

20 May 2021 - Nord Stream 2: Biden waives US sanctions on Russian pipeline

The Biden administration has waived sanctions on a company building a controversial gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

The US also lifted sanctions on the executive - an ally of Russia's Vladimir Putin - who leads the firm behind the Nord Stream 2 project.

The move came in a report on Russian sanctions delivered to Congress by the Department of State.

Critics say the pipeline is a major geopolitical prize for the Kremlin.

The project, which would take gas from the Russian Arctic under the Baltic Sea to Germany, is already more than 95% complete.

The Department of State report notes that Nord Stream 2 AG and its chief executive, Matthias Warnig, a former East German intelligence officer, engaged in sanctionable activity.

But it concludes that it is in the US national interest to waive the sanctions.

And Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by the state-run Tass news agency as welcoming "a chance for a gradual transition toward the normalisation of our bilateral ties".

German officials also welcomed the sanctions waiver as "a constructive step" from the Biden administration.

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told reporters: "It's an expression of the fact that Germany is an important partner for the US, one that it can count on in the future."

*** FAST FORWARD ***

4 Jan 2022 - Nord Stream 2 go-ahead could come in mid-2022 - Uniper CEO

5 Jan 2022 - Blinken: Nord Stream 2 pipeline is ‘leverage’ for Europe against Russia

“This pipeline does not have gas flowing through it at present and if Russia renews its aggression toward Ukraine, it would certainly be difficult to see gas flowing through it in the future,” Blinken said. “So some may see Nord Stream Two as leverage that Russia can use against Europe. In fact, it’s leverage for Europe to use against Russia.”

Germany views the pipeline as an opportunity to diversify gas imports to Europe, but came to an agreement with the Biden administration in July that Berlin would impose costs on Russia if it weaponized Nord Stream 2, or committed aggressive acts against Ukraine.


Blinken and Baerbock said they both reaffirmed commitments to the July agreement in their bilateral meeting.

The agreement that was reached in July followed President Biden waiving sanctions on the pipeline’s project company Nord Stream 2 AG, a subsidiary of the Russian-owned company Gazprom.

9 Jan 2022 - The Secretary General of Germany's ruling party urged not to mix Nord Stream 2 with politics

13 Jan 2022 - Germany's foreign minister wants to keep Nord Stream II out of the Ukraine conflict

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht warns against confusing the disagreement over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with the conflict over Ukraine.

13 Jan 2022 - Senate Rejects Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Bill

White House opposes proposal by GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, backs other bill  

14 Jan 2022 - On 55-43 basis, bipartisan majority of US Senate today voted to sanction #NordStream2 AG, 100% owned by Russian state-controlled Gazprom, to deter further Russian invasion of Ukraine. 


19 Jan 2022 - The Bundestag said that opposition to Nord Stream 2 threatens the EU's energy security

The project was and will remain primarily economic and energy, noted Steffen Kotre, member of the Bundestag Committee on Energy and Climate Affairs

"Different parties are trying, based on different motives, to mix together the importance of Europe's energy supply with geopolitical interests. This project was and will remain primarily economic and energy. Using it as a tool to achieve other political goals is wrong and jeopardizes Europe's energy supply,"

20 Jan 2022 - Blinken on Nord Stream 2 ahead of his meeting with Scholz tonight: 

"Nord Stream 2 is leverage for Germany, the United States and our allies"

27 Jan 2022 - Under Secretary Nuland Comments on Nord Stream 2

Under Secretary Victoria Nuland: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

30 Jan 2022 - German regulator expects decision on Nord Stream 2 operator’s certification after June

30 Jan 2022 - U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Wednesday the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine.

"I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward," Price told NPR. "I'm not going to get into the specifics. We will work with Germany to ensure it does not move forward." 

4 Feb 2022 - EU Commission: “It is quite clear that Nord Stream 2 cannot be removed from the table as far as sanctions are concerned.”


6 Feb 2022 - SULLIVAN: Nord Stream 2 is leverage for us, not leverage for Vladimir Putin.

You said turn off Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 hasn't been turned on. There is no gas flowing through Nord Stream 2 right now and there won't be for months, in part because of the diplomacy of the United States.

And we have been absolutely clear that if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or the other, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward. That's leverage for us that we have right now, so we intend to use that leverage and Vladimir Putin has a choice to make. If he chooses to move on Ukraine, he will not be getting the benefits of Nord Stream 2.

One of the things that President Biden has been very focused on is making sure that if Putin turns down the supply of gas to Europe, that we can find cargoes of liquefied natural gas going elsewhere in the world and redirect them to Europe. So the United States is prepared for a contingency against Russia 

7 Feb 2022 - Biden pledges end to Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine

8 Feb 2022 - If Nord Stream 2 Dies, What Will It Cost Russia? Where Will Europe Get Its Natural Gas?

When President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared at the White House yesterday, they made clear that Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be left to die on the political battlefield — if Russia invades Ukraine. But what will that cost Russia, and where would Europe get its natural gas?

Moscow relies on hydrocarbons for 60% of its national budget, while oil and gas make up nearly one-third of its gross national product. It already provides about 39% of Europe’s gas.

“If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be – there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said during the news conference. “We will bring an end to it … I promise you we will be able to do it.”

Chancellor Scholz followed those remarks by saying that the two NATO allies stand shoulder-to-shoulder: "We're one voice, and do things together and we made it very clear if there was military aggression against Ukraine, this will entail severe consequences that we agreed upon together.”

Nord Stream 2 is a companion to Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline, and it allows Russia’s Gazprom to double its natural gas capacity headed to Europe. Russia exported 168 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe in 2020. Germany bought 56 billion cubic meters of that. Italy and the Netherlands followed with 20 billion and 11 billion, respectively.


09 Feb 2022 - Biden says he'll shut down Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia further invades Ukraine

"If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2,"

Biden said. "We will bring an end to it."

Asked how the U.S. would ensure that, Biden did not offer specifics:

"I promise you: We will be able to do it." It's a point Biden administration officials have stressed in recent weeks. 


23 Feb 2022 - Statement by President Biden on Nord Stream 2 


 

 

CONCLUSION:

  • THE USA HAS NOT PLANNED PHYSICALLY KNOCK OUT NORDSTREAM 2

  • THE USA HAD A DEAL WITH GERMANY ABOUT NON-CERTIFICATION

  • THERE WAS NEVER AN ISSUE WITH NORDSTREAM 1, WHICH WAS NEVER EVEN SANCTIONED


***

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I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
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160 - January 2022 - Nord Stream 2 AG has founded a German subsidiary Gas for Europe Gmb

Gas for Europe GmbH

16 Nov 2021 - Cer­ti­fi­ca­tion pro­ce­dure for Nord Stream 2 sus­pend­ed

The Bundesnetzagentur has today suspended the procedure to certify Nord Stream 2 AG as an independent transmission operator.

Following a thorough examination of the documentation, the Bundesnetzagentur concluded that it would only be possible to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if that operator was organised in a legal form under German law.

Nord Stream 2 AG, which is based in Zug (Switzerland), has decided not to transform its existing legal form but instead to found a subsidiary under German law solely to govern the German part of the pipeline. This subsidiary is to become the owner and operator of the German part of the pipeline. The subsidiary must then fulfil the requirements of an independent transmission operator as set out in the German Energy Industry Act (sections 4a, 4b, 10 to 10e EnWG). 

26 Jan 2022 - Subsidiary for German section of Nord Stream 2 established, says project’s operator

Gas for Europe GmbH will become the operator of this section as an independent transport system operator in accordance with German law.

"Nord Stream 2 AG has founded a German subsidiary Gas for Europe GmbH. The new company is to become the owner and operator of the 54-kilometre section of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline located in the German territorial waters and the landfall facility in Lubmin, as an independent transmission operator in accordance with the German Energy Industry Act (EnWG)," according to the statement.


26 Jan 2022 - Nord Stream 2 AG has founded a German subsidiary Gas for Europe GmbH. The new company is to become the owner and operator of the 54km section of the NS2 Pipeline located in the German territorial waters and the landfall facility in Lubmin as an independent transmission operator in accordance with the German Energy Industry Act. 

This decision has been announced in November 2021 -  Gazprom Plans Fully Owned German Unit to Win Pipeline Consent. 

Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 AG established a German subsidiary Gas for Europe GmbH, so the GER regulator, BNetzA, can resume the certification process. It can take up to ~8 months.


Comment;
In 8 months it would be 28th of September
The Nordstream will be blown up on 26-27 Sept 2022


[MRT: Certification was reversed in February 2022 - posts here and several others. Overview here



***

***
Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

(retweet and follow)

159 - Nordstream affair - The Opening Act

***

Truss: It is clear that we need to 

reduce Europe’s dependency 

on Russian gas ...

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OTHER UK RELATED POSTS

most of the research about UK´s role, motives has been conducted in 2023
The summary is here:



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Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

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158 - Viktor Orbán on Nordstream affair: "under American direction"

This is part of Viktor Orbán´s speech about Nord Stream affair:

Orbán’s full speech here.


Speaking at the Tusvanos summer camp in Romania, Viktor Orbán said that:

"...The fifth important new lesson from reality: European policy-making has collapsed. Europe has given up defending its own interests: all that Europe is doing today is unconditionally following the foreign policy line of the US Democratseven at the cost of its own self-destruction

The sanctions we have imposed are damaging fundamental European interests: they are driving up energy prices and making the European economy uncompetitive.

We let the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipeline go unchallenged;  

Germany itself let an act of terrorism against its own property — which was obviously carried out under US direction — go unchallenged, and we are not saying a word about it, we are not investigating it, we do not want to clarify it, we do not want to raise it in a legal context

In the same way, we failed to do the right thing in the case of the phone tapping of Angela Merkel, which was carried out with the assistance of Denmark. So this is nothing but an act of submission..."

...

Since the war broke out, a different centre and a different axis of power has been established. The Berlin–Paris axis no longer exists — or if it does, it has become irrelevant and liable to be bypassed. The new power centre and axis comprises London, Warsaw, Kiev/Kyiv, the Baltics and the Scandinavians.

Summary: Viktor Orbán does not state that the mission against Nordstream was executed bz the USA but is hinting that the USA was aware of it and green-lighted the mission done by someone else. This view is fully consistent with the investigation, evidence and data.

Note that he also states that "we let ... the crime ...unchallenged" as if it was some joint decision. This is again consistent with this investigation - this post.
 
[MRT - Thanks to Thomas Fazi and his article here from which the particular part about Nordstream is copied.]

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***
Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

(retweet and follow)