Links = web link to news article. Check for more info!
I wrote these points in a document which I posted in October to my Twitter pined tweet
The purpose was to sort out things systematically to be able to understand what happened
This post extrapolates on known issues and draws a possible scenario in which the UK Royal Navy submarine entered, with some "last mile delivery submersible" the Baltic Sea, planted explosives and escaped.
Based on observed actions of players there seemed to be complications in execution.
[M: Note that this post will be updates with latest data about boat movements - stay tuned]
"Those other 47 knowns and unknowns"
Previously on Mortymer´s Hyphotesis:
100 shades of Nordstream sabotage - part I (issues #1 to #50)
Following - The submarine claim of the Mortymer´s Hyphotesis:
The CNN wrote about it but since it was not Russian this news was "forgotten":
The CNN shortly reports that the week before the Nordstream sabotage there were some Russian submarines in the area, other newspapers reposted.
"Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said.
US officials declined to comment on the intelligence about the ships on Wednesday."
[M: How is this possible that nobody followed up on this news? How so nobody tried to use this argument that a RU submarine was in the area? Could it be that it would NOT be Russian and the news about this have been supressed since the 29/09/2000 the day CNN reported it?]
June 2022: Der Spiegel was the first to report that the The C.I.A...
...issued a vague warning in June to a number of European nations, including Germany, that the two Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia could be targeted in forthcoming attacks, three senior officials familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday...... what intelligence officials call “strategic warning” of a possible attack — a warning that came with no specifics about the likely time or place or manner of a potential strike... The Biden administration, which in the run-up to the war often accused Russia of planning attacks on Ukraine, was careful on Tuesday not to blame Moscow — or anyone else.[M: Perhaps because the plan was still unclear? Because the threat would come in future? Note that it was warning to European nations, most likely those who are shareholders of NS: GER, FRA, NED.]
15 June 2022 - Royal Navy divers from Portsmouth undertake ‘importance’ explosives clearance using state-of-the-art drones in Lithuania
1,2,3 Sept 2022 - US Military Helicopters Circled Around Future Nord Stream Leaks For Hours In September
9 - 14 Sept 2022 - The two German military vessels spent a total of six days...
... cruising in close proximity to the two later explosion sites. The vessels in question were equipped with sophisticated sensors for picking up signals and movements both over and under water.
15 - 19 Sept 2022 - Several warships of Germany, France and Estonia...
... are assembling in Klaipėda Seaport for international annual manoeuvres Northern Coasts 2022 in the Baltic Sea.
[M: Note that this is not NATO exercise, GER and FRA are NS shareholders and exercise does not include UK, or US]
20 Sept 2022 - The Finnish Navy is exercising with the French
... mine countermeasures vessel Céphée in the Baltic Sea 22¬-23 September 2022 Afterwards the French vessel will moor in Turku until the 28th of September.
[M: Note that FRA is next Nordstream shareholder.]
21 Sep 2022 - Five days before the pipeline blasts,...
...it was a chilly and overcast day on the east coast of Sweden.The Intelligence Ship - HSwMS - Swedish Corvette „K31 Visby“ (K31) was set on a southward course... The next morning, something must have happened.
[M: It is known that SWE and DK share responsibilities and costs over guarding the Danish straights. There are several radar stations, sensors which could trigger the mission.]
The „Visby“ left Karlskrona on 22 September around 08.30 a.m. (06:30 UTC) at 18-20 knots, according to MarineTraffic data, effectively double the speed of its patrol ride on the previous day. Now it was heading southeast for Bornholm. Had it received a radio call instructing it to search for something?
The following day, 23 September, the „Visby“ rounded the island of Bornholm, passing closely by the later explosion site #1 in the process. After leaving the area westward, the naval corvette returned for a second look at explosion site #2 the following day, 24 September, around midday at 12:13 local time..
The Danish Patrol Boat - On the same morning of 22 September when the „Visby“ left Karlskrona seemingly in a hurry, the Danish Navy Patrol Boat „Nymfen“ P524 had already headed to the same waters northeast of Bornholm.
Nymfen left Rodbyhavn 21/9 ~19.50
[M: Note that DK navy does not have the ASW sonar capabilities to track submarines and so DK most likely asked SWE navy to help out to locate, track and identify what was under the surface.]
Focusing on a particular section of the Danish patrol boat’s movements (blue box) near site #2, a search pattern emerges. The location of the blue box is approx. 18-20 km from the later explosion site #2.
The patrol boat’s movements seem to indicate a kind of search pattern. At one point, it almost came to a halt, moving at 1 knot or less (indicated by the red arrows). What information was it that brought the boat out to this location? Where did the information come from?
The fact is the „Nymfen“ was crusing in the highlighted area (blue box) between 08:17 a.m. local Swedish time (06:17 UTC) and 08:41 a.m. (06:41 UTC) — the same time that the Swedish warship „Visby“ was just leaving Karlskrona heading for the same general area. Had the Swedes received a call from the Danes? Or had the Swedish Navy intercepted a Danish radio message and decided to take a look themselves?
By the time the „Visby“ arrived near explosion site #2 around 01:00 p.m. local time (11:00 UTC), the Danish patrol boat „Nymfen“ had already left for the nearby port of Nexø on the island of Bornholm.
#53 - THE SWE AND DK NAVY REACTS TO SOMETHING UNDER
22, 23 24 September - SWE newspapers Dagens Nyheter report that Swedish navy was in the area a few days before the sabotage.
[M: Look carefully and imagine there is a submarine involved. You have already eliminated other possibilities of how explosives were delivered - Not from air, Not from boat, and Not through PIG (pipeline inspection gauge). What scenario do you see? What is the Swedish news saying between the lines?]
Then there is this news about an unidentified US plane over the area by @fernandobill27, @arjanommering suggests this one. Note the time Sat 24th to Sun 25-09-2022. If this is another P8 plane then they have anti-submarine capability.
Note that pipelines were blown as much as possible to the
The map of the North sea and Baltic sea
[M: Note that Danish straights are very shallow, it is forbidden to pass submerged due to risk of blocking straights. It is possible that in a moonless night, with enough space in between other passages a submarine could pass without noticing. Very risky but possible.]
Baltic Sea heat map of ship traffic
[M: Most of the traffic goes through the deeper passage between Sweden and Bronholm. It is also more suitable for submarines as it is deeper there. If submarine was involved or a minisubmarine, it would be safer to go through the passage between Bronholm and Sedish coast.]
Bronholm basin and Bronholm depth
[M: These places where Nordstream pipelines were blown seem to be close to the deep waters, not shallow. This hints that submarine was used, or that submarine docked at some place and minisubmarie did the last mile delivery. It is also possible that a mother submarine was docked before Danish straights then minisubmarine was sent to do the job. The minisub could be picked later? {speculation}]
#55 - Exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Baltic Sea
#56 - Territorial waters (TZ) in the Baltic Sea
[M: Note the proximity to the North Sea - a hint that a suspect is not from Baltic Sea but outside. Three blasts in the northern part, closer to deeper escape passage from the area, one more south, looks like secondary target area]
[M: Note that blasts were conducted outside TZ which could be considered an attack on a country]
Under international law, territorial waters are considered to be the sovereign territory of the coastal state, and foreign vessels, including naval vessels, are not allowed to conduct military activities or law enforcement operations within those waters without the permission of the coastal state.If the Swedish navy frigate detected undefined submarine activity in Danish territorial waters, it would be required to contact the Danish authorities and request permission to investigate the activity. If the Danish government grants permission, the Swedish navy frigate could conduct an investigation in cooperation with Danish authorities.
It is possible that the Danish government noticed under surface suspicious activity in its TZ and called Sweden to help with investigation because DK does not have ASW (anti submarine warfare) capable ships in the area.
The submarine or minisub enters into the Bronholm East area where is the main 1st primary target - the northern Nordstream 1 twin pipelines (the NS2 still not operational).
Alt scenarios/questions: It has enough time to mine one, two or even possibly three pipelines. Thought it is plausible logical assumption that only NS1 two pipelines were mined (or 3), that the submarine (or more likely the last mile delivery submersible) was at some point disturbed. Another point is that the submarine may have been already in the Baltic sea for some time. Perhaps got in during a NATO exercise. This may not have been the first attempt to mine the pipeline. It is unclear if the mother submarine was in Baltic Sea, if it was there already waiting, or if only the mini-submarine went in.
The most likely scenario I see here on map is the mother sub entered earlier, released divers with mk11, they did 3 lines. Each charge had two parts to secure if one failed. They got disturbed and sub left to rendezvous point. Meanwhile the submersible with divers went about 6km south to another pipeline and mined there. They accidentally mixed targets and did one NS2 pipeline two times.
Some divers went to Bronholm on inflatables as per training with Ambush in Norway.
[M: If it was a submarine I see possibility of going through the straight rather than south from Bronholm where water is very shallow for submarines.]
[M: Alternative scenario is that HMS Ambush delivered the MK11 to DK straights, then MK11 (could be even two minisubs) mined the northern target, got disturbed, mined the southern and went toward PL Gdansk where it sunk the minisub and retreated on land. Is this connected?]
Alert could come from a different assets, from planes, to sensors, or from some other source like intel, etc. Possibly hydro acoustic sensors are triggered. It is unclear whether SWE and DK share data. Seems the Karlskrona naval base is the closest one.
SWE navy is called in. Two SWE assets of unknown size and type are called in. See on the pic the steps 1, 2, and 3. There may be a coordination between SWE and DK about handling calls. The SWE navy has closer a navy base Karlskrona. The page lists which assets SWE has there. Both Visby (73m long) and Stockholm (50m long) class corvettes are equipped for anti-submarine missions and are assumed to be deployed.
Recap, so at 11 a.m. on Thursday last week, the Swedish Navy's ships left the port in Karlskrona. Barely two hours later, the ships are in place at the very northern area where three gas leaks are found four days later.
[M: Note that the newspapers has the time for point 2. and point 3. both at time 13:03. Then these SWE boats switch off transponders. Were they conducting cycles typical for searching for submarines? Were they following the asset which was submerged?]
#60 - 22 Sep 2022 - Norway is raising its ISPS-maritime-security level to level 2
[M: So, DK, SWE share their data and rise security because of the intrusion of unidentified submarine. What is joint NATO HQ MARCOM in UK saying about it? The UK has basically operational control and could send data to the sub about the movement of the NATO allied forces (boats, planes). This likely excludes NOR as a direct state actor.]
Note the location in the territorial waters - point 3. It is where Danish territorial waters begin. It looks like SWE navy 2 boats could have entered without permission or conducted anti submarine tasks or both which they wanted to conceal. There is a long gap between Thursday 22-09-2022 at 13:03 and the following day Friday 23-09-2022 at 11:03. Or they conducted zig-zag search which could be a sign of anti submarine operation.
Recap, so after that, as said, the movement data ceases at 13, probably because the AIS transmitter on board is switched off to hide the ship's movements. For the next 22 hours, Navy ships apparently do not want to reveal their exact position via AIS.
Was the submarine able to escape toward the island or to the south? How many pipes were mined? Were SWE boats patrolling the area over the night? Did the SWE boats leave back to port and approached the next day again? Were sensors again alarming some suspicious activity? Did SWE boats work together or did they split?
So at 11 o'clock on Friday morning, the navy ship is a number of kilometers west of the location of the three gas leaks. They then steer towards Simrishamn for a short stop at lunchtime. At 18:00 they stop transmitting AIS data, then the ships are at the location of the northern gas leaks.It looks like SWE navy is guarding the straight between the Simrishamn and the area of future explosions. See red points on the map 11:03 and 18:10.
the time between point 6 at 18:10 and 7. 23:56. Transponders are again off. Were sensors again alarming some suspicious activity this time more southward where future second blast would occur? Note again that it is possible that SWE navy entered DK territorial waters without permission or that they again conducted anti-submarine moves recognizable on path tracker.
So at 23.56 on Friday evening, the movement data is broadcast again. Then the navy's ship surprisingly finds itself in a new position. Now they are in the southern area where the fourth gas leak will later be discovered.
The mini/submarine was already at the secondary target place taking case of the next pipeline or pipelines. The one charge has been deposited. The timer was most likely set to 01:00 am on Monday 26-09-2022 to give time for escape. Note the northern timer went off at around 17:00 on Monday.
#66 - Possible Step 9 - Saturday 24-09-2022
The SWE navy is unable to find the mini/sub and goes from point 7. to point 8. Given the short distance, they had to be very slow or were doing search zig-zag which is not shown on the map, arrived 12:13 on the place of the original sighting.
The SWE navy moved toward Gdansk, point 8. at 12:13 to point 9. at 14:28. The distance is not really as great so why did it take for them so long? Also, note that sea is deeper here to hide, see map.
The SWE navy is in the small area for about 7 hours from 14:28 to 21:43. Why? Were boats sitting on sum mini/submarine? The RU Kaliningrad base is nearby. Was there the end of the mission and the minisub was ditched there?
The SWE navy leaves the area on evening at 21:43. Probably ends the mission.
When the explosions occur on Monday 26-09-2022 at 2:03 a.m. and at 7:04 p.m., there is no AIS data from the Swedish Navy in the two areas. A large number of commercial vessels move in the area. In addition to the Swedish defence, Danish and German naval vessels have also maneuvered east of Bornholm.
[M: My take is that nobody has entertained the idea that the mother sub could release a minisub, like mk11, or similar which planted explosives. While surfaced vessels were chasing the mother sub the minisub was able to do its job first on the northern location, then, on the southern. The chaotic movement of SWE, GER, DK ships and many flights of Poseidon P-8 with ASW capability is quite teling.]
THOSE USA POSEIDON P-8 FLIGHTS
...in Germany around 1930, descended to 5000ft and went dark over the Baltic at 2055. THEN STAYED DARK 4 HOURS close to #Nordstream explosion sites.
[M: Note Poseidons have antisubmarine ASW capability]
[M: Is this another hint that there was a submarine in the area?]
[M: Moric Welt asks good questions: "What is Sedov doing near the NS2 outbreak? What was he doing close to NS1 and why had he turned off AIS for 15 hours? What was MIR doing close to NS2 and what is it doing close to Polish installations? What is the US Navy looking for in their vicinity?"]
[M: After so many GER, SWE, DK boats and USA Poseidons running there frantically I suppose that two Russian sailing boats went to look at the area.]'
#73 - 26 Sept 2022 - The USA Poseidon P-8 flies from Iceland,
near Bronholm 1h after explosion.
[M: Flying own special intel ASW plane shows distrust in NATO command which is in London Northwoods. The USA needed own data about what was happening in the area, what will be RU response.]
IS RUSSIA GONNA TO SIT IDLE?
#74 - 18 Sept 2022 - RU boat Sedov leaves Kaliningrad
[M: Note the search pattern]
The French FREMM frigate Normandie and a Caiman helicopter tracked the Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk. As per reports, the French navy escorted the Russian submarine in the Bay of Biscay. The British and Spanish warships had also been involved in monitoring the submarine’s movements.
[M: What was this about? Why would RU submarine killer sub suddenly surface? What UK and SPA assets were there? Is it possible that the UK asset was a submarine? The HMS S120 Ambush anchored in Faslane/Clyde base in early October. Note that This particular Kilo class sub was previously seen in Mediterranean Sea.]
[M: Similar hunt like few years back - 2018 "ASTUTE TACTICS Royal Navy submarine locked in ‘cat and mouse’ pursuit with pair of Russian hunter-killer subs dubbed ‘the Black Hole’ = same Kilo class]
[M: Note that other Russian navy assets were called in.]
THE CASE OF THE "SPANISH" DIVERS
#77 - On 18 January 2023 PL news report about mysterious divers near key infrastructure. (Google translation)
Where were the services - experts and commentators ask in disbelief after the unusual intervention of rescuers in the Gulf of Gdańsk. Three - ostensibly - Spanish nationals in the middle of the night, undocumented but with specialist diving gear, were within arm's reach of key critical infrastructure. The police let them go because the men said they were just looking for amber.
From the beginning, two hypotheses came to mind: concerning smugglers who wanted to pick up, for example, a shipment of drugs, which is a form of contraband popular in Europe. And the second: about some secret operation of the special services.
[M: Is this "Spanish" divers issue related? Could the mini-submarine be ditched there? Were they trying to get evidence or get it out.]
[M: Why was there just a brief news and then those divers just disappeared, were released? The diving was at night so experienced divers were used. Poland is large UK ally. Many divers speak Spanish.]
From small boat they called Polish rescue. Three were rescued.
[M: The assumption they were Spanish was due to one of them speaking Spanish. No other info was provided. They were released. ]
[M: Location near industrial area so not many people would see frogmen using lights in sea.]
#82 - The men traveled around Poland by car with a Spanish registration...
- so they did not come by plane, which also makes it difficult to identify them. One of them showed Spanish ID (not passport) to rent cylinders. On Friday, the Spaniards also appeared in the dive shop
[M: Someone got them Spanish registration car to get a cover. Spells they are not from Spain but another state, my bet is UK.
What size/type of the car?]
He wasn't Polish. I got the impression that he helps them, but he doesn't know them, says Piórewicz.
[M: The Polish PM had to interfere to stop investigation. Said the issue is not a problem for Polish national security. Case closed - unsolved.]
[M: As said, these divers were released. Question remains whether there were more divers or not. What car did they use?]
#85 - The divers did not have a license to drive a boat, a diving permit or even lighting, but they had high-class equipment - including sea drone.
[M: Location, Location, Location!The Gdansk is near Russian Kaliningrad - to frame RU (?). There were online attempts to frame RU sail boats.
The location is in territorial waters of UK most friendly European ally - Poland - easy to get the minisub back. The Polish Territorial waters prevent SWE and DK navies which were following and tracking the minisub the follow and enter.]
#87 - Here is a recap of what could of happened several months ago:
then they were chased by SWE, DK, GER navies and US helicopters/ planes,
while the sub took all the attention the minisub safely deposited explosives.
there is a possibility that some divers went to Bornholm
or it could be just an escape to UK friendly PL.]
Is there something sank? - a tweet by Digital Adam (19-12-2022)
USN P8-A Poseidon over Bay of Gdańsk at altitude of approximately 6800ft (2000m). Nothing of particular interest on AIS, apart from Swedish nuclear fuel carrier SIGRID and Swedish Coast Guard AMFITRITE north west of it.
SOME ADDITIONAL UNKNOWNS
26 Sep 2022 - 19:01 (19:01 GMT)
The UK’s chief of defence staff has held talks with the Russian defence attaché at the Ministry of Defence in London.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin and Colonel Maxim Elovik met as part of ongoing efforts to “strengthen military to military channels of communication” with Russia.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg convened an extraordinary meeting of the Conference of National Armaments Directors (CNAD) on Tuesday (27 September 2022) at NATO Headquarters.
We haven’t heard from Truss since she spoke in the graveyard slot at the United Nations, overnight, a week ago. It was Kwasi Kwarteng’s who announced his emergency Budget on Friday
[M: 28th is Wednesday, 26h was Monday - the day NS was blown, but it seems Liz Truss has disappeared already on Wed 21st, last posted after submitting the minibudget. No trace, no message to nation. Was she hiding or was she cleared out because the mission was not going well? Note that Swedish navy was tracking some submarine. Was Liz Truss as a key person hidden in some bunker? Note that Boris Johnson also was not in London, supposedly left UK for 3 consecutive holidays with family - Slovenia, Greece, Caribbean]
Norway is the third largest exporter of natural gas in the world, behind Russia and Qatar. About 95 per cent of Norwegian gas production is exported via pipelines directly to the EU and UK. Norway primarily pipes its gas to receiving terminals in Britain, Germany, France and Belgium and late in 2022 also opened a new pipeline to Poland via Denmark.Norway is typically the UK's largest gas supplier. In 2021, the UK imported £14.5 billion of gas from Norway, which accounted for 77% of all gas imports.
[M: It looks like the Norway was worried about becoming a target for Russian retaliation in kind. About Russian possible strike against Norwegian piped gas deliveries to UK]
#97 - Glomar Worker investigation
In summary, three large well equipped off-shore vessels have investigated the Nordstream damage.1. Nefrit -NS1, hired by NS12. Normand Frontier, NS1+NS2, likely hired by investigators (end of linked thread)3. Glomar Worker, NS2, Likely hired by NS2.
"In light of Seymour Hersh statement that "noone in the industry thinks Russia did it", and all these ships with large crews are involved with pipeline industry, I don't see how the national investigations could come up with different conclusion."
So many questions and so many things which looks like is connected.Nobody is looking into it.
It's great fun to think about a "sewers of Moscow" type adventure, but I can't help thinking getting through the Danish straights would be too tricky for a US or UK sub. And the distance too far for a swimmer delivery vehicle.
ReplyDeleteSeems like using a surface ship and divers so much simpler. Could do it at night under EMCON (darken ship). Maybe even from a fishing vessel or large sailing yacht.
Ok, good point. I have actually spoke about this with a DK ex-navy person who said me it is possibly, forbidden, courageous but very very risky, doable because navies train this stuff [from memory].
ReplyDeleteFew days ago I have found USA military manual about the Danish straights and passing by submarines. Do you accept that as a good source?
The Strategic Danish Straits
By Captain Malcolm W. Cagle, USN
October 1960 Proceedings Vol. 86/10/692
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1960/october/strategic-danish-straits
"The Chief of Naval Operations of the German Federal Navy, Vice Admiral Friedrich Ruge, put the problem this way in a recent article in the U. S. Naval Institute Proceedings: “If these narrows are closed it means that there will be 100 to 150 fewer submarines to sow destruction in the Atlantic. It can be said that a future battle for the Atlantic will be decided 50% in the Danish straits.”..."
"...While a submerged submarine passage is physically possible, the transit would be difficult, to say the least. In any case, peacetime regulations require that submarines transit on the surface..."
Is this enough for a proof of concept? Nowadays the straight is very well researched tagged, subs could be operated on autopilots by wire, positioning is very exact. Tech is some 60y more advanced.
Do you now allow Yourself to consider the possibility that a UK nuclear submarine S120 Ambush COULD be in Baltics undetected and lay explosives to Nordstream? Of course not directly, that is a risk, with usage of some "last mile delivery" minisub and divers i/o through the Chalfont de/compression bay?
Given my vast research this looks each day more likely scenario - and I use only open public sources. Do you think official investigators should exercise this scenario?