PREFACE/ISSUE
"Location, Location, Location!
Before answering the main question of whose submarine was there lets look which factors support the claim that the submarine was used and why the exact location has been chosen.
I. Why was the location near Christiansø, Bornholm chosen?
It looks like several factors play a role:
1.1 Most western part of Nordstream pipelines, also shortest way to exit
1.2 Bornholm Deep basin is suitable for submarine operations
1.3 Shipping lane traffic and Baltic cod fisheries
1.4 The importance of tiny Christiansø Island
1.5 What do Christiansø inhabitants say about Bornholm Deep?
1.6 Furthest from the Russian A2AD in Kaliningrad
1.7 Russia can not patrol in Territorial Zones of another states
1.8 The importance of Exclusive Economic Zone
1.9 Denmark is a NATO state, Sweden is not yet
1.1 Most West part of Nordstream pipelines,...
...also shortest to exit through Danish straights.
there is a tiny island of Christiansø (DK)
[M: Here will be a link to a separate post handling Danish Straights and submarine passage]
1.2 Bornholm Deep basin is suitable for submarine operations
The "Bornholm Deep" longitude and latitude, note the shallow passage on the South-West from Bornholm island. That part is not suitable for deep undersea operation. The surface-floor divers would have it easier in more shallow waters.
[M: To me this is the ideal location for a submarine covert operation. Besides it is known that Denmark does not have anymore anti-submarine ships with sonar capabilities in the area.]
1.3 Shipping lane traffic and Baltic cod fisheries
Location is everything!
It could mean that the saboteur tried to minimize damage to Denmark.]
1.4 The importance of Christiansø Island
Christiansø Island is a small Danish island located in the Baltic Sea. It is part of the Danish archipelago of Ertholmene and is home to a small community of around 80 people. The Ertholmene islands of Christiansø and Frederiksø form the easternmost point of Denmark.
Ertholmene: Christiansø - A tiny island NE from Bronholm
Lille Tårn - map, Christiansø is an island of the coast of Bornholm with an estimated population on 92 residents inclusive 8 pupils.
The vast 17th century sea fortress on the Ertholmene
it bears either positive or negative aspect,
The saboteur could have used the proximity of the tiny island harbour.
I imagine a scenario where the tiny island could be a base for a yacht "Pickup team"
would the divers team be left at the place. They could just dial own taxi to be picked.
The "Bornholm Deep" is one of 3 main deep areas in Baltic Sea. The depth near the island drops sharply.
Perfect to "hide submarines" as local people say: John Hartung @JohnErikWagner · Oct 2, 2022
"Guiden sagde der er så dybt at de kan ikke se havbunden på den på deres ekkolod. Så sagde jeg for sjov så kan dig og ligge russisk ubåd i skjul."
The guide said there is so deep they can't see the seabed on it on their echo sounder. Then I said jokingly so can you and lie Russian submarine in hiding."
"Det var fantastisk godt vejr og blikstille vand som er Godt for dykker når de skal arbejde og kan se hvad de laver i 3 dage"
It was great weather and lightning calm water which is good for divers when they have to work and can see what they are doing for 3 days
"Kun at at de læse en masse kasser på færgen til Christiansø den er jo også postbud. Der var polakker der kører rundt med en barnevogn på øen"
Only that they read a lot of boxes on the ferry to Christiansø it is also the postman. There were Poles driving around with a pram on the island
[M: This is from Mr. John Hartung. Danish police should investigate what happened there. Not knowing Danish I just used the DeepL translator. Further chat exchange with Mr. John Hartung revealed that it is an old Cold war knowledge for Christiansø islanders that Russian submarine could be positioned there in waiting unnoticed.]
1.6 The Russian A2AD in Kaliningrad
Anti Access Area Denial systems and radars from RU enclave can see much. They can see very much what is on the surface and could send there in a no time a plane to have a look would a suspicious boat spend too long time over its pipelines.
1.7 Russia can not patrol Nordstream in Territorial waters.
The Big picture of whole Baltic Sea (EEZs)
According to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), coastal states have sovereign rights over their EEZs, which includes the exclusive right to authorize, regulate and control any activities related to the exploration, exploitation, conservation, and management of the natural resources within their EEZs.Therefore, any investigation within the EEZ must be carried out with the consent and cooperation of state which owns the EEZ. Failure to seek consent may result in a violation of state B's sovereignty and may be considered a breach of international law.
1.9 Denmark is a NATO state, Sweden is not yet
[M: The role of Denmark in shaping what happened after will be explored in another separate post. Basically, IF the NATO member was involved then it is easier to arm-twist or talk to "cooperate".
The choice has been done not to:
- Not to blow pipeline in Territorial Zone as that is considered as an attack against a state
- Not to blow pipelines outside economical zones because then Russia would have wull right of United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) would be used and Russia could investigate itself, repair at will.
- To blow the pipeline in the Danish and Swedish Exclusive Economical Zones because then the Sweden and Denmark would lead their own investigations.
II. Denmark is aware of the vulnerability from the seabed
19 Oct 2022 - The bottom of the sea is the Danish Defence’s blind spot: 4 possible surveillance technologies
“We don’t constantly have eyes on everything underwater. Therefore, we have no way of identifying a submerged submarine,” says Johannes Kidmose, navy commander and head of the Centre for Maritime Operations at the Royal Danish Defence College.
Johannes Kidmose does not consider it improbable that an enemy vessel would be able to sabotage a submarine cable, internet cable, or gas pipeline on the bottom of the sea in Danish waters without anyone discovering it before the damage has been done.
Four Undersea surveillance Technologies
But there are technologies that can monitor the area below the surface of the sea and detect hostile vessels, says Henning Heiselberg, head of Center for Security DTU.
“Just the fact that one can monitor them, find them, and see them means that they won’t dare to come close. This requires systems that constantly monitor the huge area. It’s not easy, and it requires large investments.”A power outage has hit the Danish island of Bornholm after an underwater cable from Sweden was reportedly cut.
Danish frigates have no sonars on board and are thus blind to what is happening down in the depths of the sea.
The Danish Defence uses sonars to some extent, for example on minesweepers and inspection ships in the Arctic, according to DR. But according to Johannes Kidmose, the former equipment has been removed decades ago from both helicopters and frigates to save money, and it is also not found on the six patrol boats that patrol the waters around Denmark.
[M: Is this the reason that on 22, 23, 24, 25 September the SWE navy was called in as their boats do have this capability? Could this be that DK has was somehow triggered by a submarine, asked SWE to investigate even later allowing it to access its territorial waters and so SWE navy switched off their transponders?]
The "Danish Navy's underwater drone SAAB Double Eagle is currently near Bornholm investigating the Nord Stream crime scene"
The Royal Danish Navy has underwater drones, for example as fixed equipment on the minesweepers Hirsholm and Saltholm, and uses them, among other things, to destroy old mines. Saltholm is currently near Bornholm, investigating the Nord Stream leaks.
[M: What evidence are they looking for? A mini-submarine? Divers equipment?]
[M: Looks like the westernmost deep water has been chosen.]
III. Bornholm cable issue, testing DK response times?
28 Feb 2022 - Energinet looking for Bornholm cable fault following power outage
A fault occurred on the cable at 06:17 a.m. on Saturday, 26 February, causing a power outage for Bornholm, Energinet reported.
On Sunday night, a special vessel arrived at the waters between Bornholm and Sweden to start looking for faults on the submarine cable that connects the two electricity systems.
Measurements have shown that a fault probably occurred in the cable 17 kilometers from Sweden and 26 kilometers from Bornholm. The vessel is working to find the exact fault location and possible reasons why the cable disconnected.
Back in 2018, the cable was buried deeper in the seabed as it had been repeatedly damaged in 2004, in 2010, and in 2013.
28 March 2022 - Six JEF nations conduct FONOP patrols in Baltic Sea region
The UK Royal Air Force’s new Poseidon P8A and submarine hunter aircraft rehearsed with the ships to spot enemy vessels.
[MRT: Would be interesting to learn if they not -were testing how hard is to discover a submarine?]
29 March 2022 - Energinet has repaired cable connection between Bornholm and Sweden
Danish electricity system operator Energinet said it took a month to repair the electricity link between Bornholm and Sweden. The damage was more extensive than originally thought. The cable was probably damaged by a ship’s anchor.
While the submarine cable was broken, Bornholm was supplied with electricity from its own generation sources.
Later investigations showed that the cable was probably pulled through the ship’s anchor. The vessel that was passing over the cable when the failure occurred has been identified and Energinet has initiated insurance proceedings. [?]
[M: This looks like somebody has tried to check the response times and means of Denmark.]
[Mrt: Is there some hydro-acoustic sensors station on the island which does not have reserve generators? Because, the island lost connection again after the Nordstream blast]
III. Submarine operations in Baltics are comm-on
April 2018 - Finland accused Russia of violating its territorial waters
in the Baltic Sea by conducting a submarine search in the area.
1 April 2021- Submarines are operating secretly in Baltic sea.
7 April 2021 - Submarines and trawlers: Nord Stream 2 director spots something fishy in the Baltic
In February, the operator dispatched the supporting vessel Vladislav Strizhyov to intercept the Polish trawler SWI-106 that “was not answering to radio communication attempts”, he said.
The trawler aimed to hit directly at Fortuna, Minin claimed, but collided with the supporting vessel before the Polish captain established a radio contact to apologise for the accident.
Two other unknown fishing trawlers attempted to approach the Fortuna during the night of 30 March but turned away without answering radio calls when another supporting vessel, which was guarding the barge, started its engines to move towards them, he said.
A Polish naval ship has been recently seen manoeuvering near the Fortuna, while an antisubmarine aircraft performs regular fly-overs of the pipelaying site in the Baltic Sea, Minin said.
[M: These and similar reports hint that Baltic sea is a frequented by submarines. Note that Nordstream was supposed to have active/passive protection. I suppose sensor detectors of nearby activities of larger vessels. Thus approach with smaller units like mini-submarine, submersible, drome, divers from boat or submarine or dropped charges are more likely than from larger vessels. It is not clear if these sensors were disabled (if there are). The info I heard from Alexey Miller in an interview long time ago, I could not retrace unfortunately]
[M: Whose submarine was that? And if it was a UK/US one, how did it got there? It is forbidden (thought possible) to go submerged through UK straights]
had entered its territorial waters in the Baltic Sea. This was the third such incident in six years.
[MRT: Was it passage or checking that Nordstream was safe? Or else?]
This time a warship entered Danish waters near Bornholm while thousands attend Folkemødet political festival on the island
IV. Power outage on Bornholm? Again?
01 Oct 2022 - Danish island Bornholm hit with blackout after underwater power cable from Sweden is cut
A power outage has hit the Danish island of Bornholm after an underwater cable from Sweden was reportedly cut.
[M: Whose ship was that this time? Note the timing, it happened on 01/10 a few days after the 26/09 and a few days before the HMS Ambush returns to Faslane/Clyde.]
5 - 17 June 2022 - BALTOPS 22 KICKS OFF IN THE BALTIC SEA
June 8 2022, the Boeing P-8A simply switched off its call sign, several rounds over the NS blast site.
June 15 2022 - Experimentation on new types of unmanned underwater vehicles were also tested off the coast of Bornholm Island, Denmark during the exercise.
[M: IF I would want to use the Submarine + Chalfont + MK11 + divers; I would run different possible scenarios. One of such scenario would include the impossibility of MK11 returning to the mother submarine. I would, for that reason, try to MAP the sea floor properly for the possible escape route and then position some rendezvous covert boat just in case in Christiansø and/or Bornholm ports or near Bronholm on the sea.
BALTOPS exercise near Bornholm would be ideal for this preparatory work. It would also offer a good false narrative which different investigators could not crack and would waste their time on. Nothing could be proven during Baltops as it is too obvious.]
1,2,3 Sept 2022 - US Military Helicopters Circled Around Future Nord Stream Leaks For Hours In September
In particular, at the beginning of the month, a US Navy Sikorsky MH-60R Seahawk helicopter loitered over the location of pipelines in the Baltic Sea near Bornholm for three days in a row on September 1, 2 and 3.
(helicopters are better than planes due to lower speed for anti-sub warfare)
FlightRadar shows a few flights there on that day
Swedish and Danish Navies seem to have been aware that something was afoot in the waters around the island of Bornholm and sent patrol boats to take a look - see detailed blog post about it -> here.
Explosion site #1 is situated 40 km southeast of Bornholm
Explosion site #1 is situated 63 km northeast of Bornholm
VI. Were Germans tracking assumed submarine?
See another post which looks into this part:
-------
Scenario: Disturbed by SWE navy, Proximity to a Rendezvous?
Note how locations are very close to the ports.
The mother sub carries a mini-sub for "last mile delivery" (MK-11?).
That is to secure the safety of the sub. Divers mine 3/4 pipelines.
The SWE navy disturbs them. The reconnecting with mother Sub is difficult.
The SWE navy follows for a few days, guards, and scans the area.
The mining team heads toward "secondary target area" south.
The last pipeline is done in haste and team accidentally blows wrong pipe.
[M: I asked locals if there was a boat over 20t the week before, will update.]
[M: Investigators should check records in these ports whose ships were there the week before, when they arrived, when they left, and their position if they could be possibly picking some divers who did not made it back to the mother submarine].
Most likely toward the Gdansk, rest of crew is evacuated to nearest ports.
It goes all the way toward the Territorial waters, does not enter them.
It stays over one area for several hours, then leaves.
The submarine leaves the area on its own between 22nd after separating with the mini-submarine and 2nd of October. If this was HMS Ambush then it arrived to Faslane / Clyde in early October.
They go toward the Gdansk deep basin.
The USA warns their European Allies that Nordstream is in danger
June 2022 - The C.I.A. had warned European governments of potential attacks on pipelines.
The warning was not specific, the officials said, and they declined to say whether Russia was identified as a possible attacker.The C.I.A. issued a vague warning in June to a number of European nations, including Germany, that the two Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia could be targeted in forthcoming attacks, three senior officials familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.The German publication Der Spiegel was the first to report that the U.S. had provided what intelligence officials call “strategic warning” of a possible attack — a warning that came with no specifics about the likely time or place or manner of a potential strike.
[M: The CIA provided strategic waning to Nordstream shareholders that their both NS1 and NS2 could be targets and they did not took any counter-measures, political or else?]
Russians monitoring its assets in Danish Territorial waters
1 May 2022 - Denmark, Sweden summon Russian ambassadors over spy plane flight
Authorities from both Denmark and Sweden reported that the Russian plane entered Danish airspace on Friday evening east of the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm then entered Swedish airspace.
16 June2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned Following Violation of Danish Airspace: “Inacceptable breach”
The summons is a reaction to Russia’s violation of Danish airspace on 11 June between 11:08 a.m. and 11:42 a.m., during which time two Russian SU-30 fighter planes were observed over Danish airspace near Christiansø Island and Bornholm Island.
1 Sept 2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned To Denmark After Alleged Airspace Violation
Whose submarine was it? Russian or USA?
30 Aug 2022 - American nuclear submarine returns to Scotland
The USS Georgia, equipped with an underwater launch system for special forces, arrived at Faslane naval base in Scotland for its second visit in two months.
The U.S. Navy said that this port visit to Faslane reflects the United States’ “commitment to our allies and partners in the region and complements the many exercises, training, operations, and other military cooperation activities conducted by Strategic Forces to ensure they are available and ready to safely and effectively operate around the globe at any time”.What is the bump on the back?It’s a drydock for the ‘SEAL Delivery Vehicle’. The SDV is a manned submersible and a type of swimmer delivery vehicle used to deliver United States Navy SEALs and their equipment for special operations missions. It is also operated by the Royal Navy’s Special Boat Service, which operates three SDVs from Astute-class submarines.
[M: Comment - The USS Georgia was operating near the Faroe Islands as late as August 25th.]
[M: Another report states that this sub returned to its base on 22-09-2022 - here]
[M: If the US was considering this a secret mission, would they not asked UK kindly for removal of all similar news? Note there were also several NATO trainings, perhaps just delivering? Suspect? It does not look like they travelled at night or tried hard to conceal their movements.]
29 Sept 2022 - CNN reports that: "Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said."
CNN’s Alex Marquardt and Oren Liebermann contributed to this report.:
[M: This is very odd because nobody else reported about this. Note the Swedish navy activity on 22,23, 24/09 which I reported earlier as very highly a submarine here, is this a clue? Were further submarine reports supressed? All NATO data goes to the Northwood btw anyway. If there was a RU submarines they should be able to disclose data and bring them to justice. Posted also earlier for the sake of the timeline.]
Could it be actually that it was neither Russian nor US Navy one?
In two separate posts I explored the possibility that it was a UK Astute class submarine:
The distance between Bornholm port and Clyde base in the UK is approximately 665 nautical miles.
Could it be that the UK tried to frame the USA and USA said "no way!" ?
On 5 Oct 2022 - CNN - The USA considering offering to analyse underwater audio recordings to aid Nord Stream pipeline sabotage investigations. Article speaks about “sonar signature”.
NOTE:
"Does anyone have underwater audio recordings around the date of the Nordstream sabotage? It looks like Sweden, Poland or Denmark could have recordings?"
26 Sept 2022 - "It is now the clear assessment by authorities that these are deliberate actions. It was not an accident," Mette Frederiksen told journalists.Some time between 26 - 30 Sept 2022 DK requests an urgent meeting with UK, NATO and EU officials on highest level. Official DK request:
[M: There is no date on this announcement, had to be between 27th and 30th of September. Note that Mette Frederiksen flies only to meet Liz Truss to London but with other state heads/PMs conducts only web calls. Then she travels to Brussels. btw, thanks for the translation to the twitter user I find/add later.]
30 Sept 2022 - The Prime Minister ok DK travels to London and Brussels to discuss the destruction on Nord Stream 1 and 2 (read link)
Translation: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will meet on Saturday 1 October with British Prime Minister Liz Truss in London and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the President of the European Council Charles Michel in Brussels.
01 Sept 2022 - UK's Truss meets Danish counterpart, discuss Nord Stream 'sabotage'
They agreed the incidents were clearly an act of sabotage," Truss's office said in a statement.
01 Oct 2022 - Metter Frederiksen "Things can happen that we have not had the imagination to imagine"
We are vulnerable, we are worried, and we are in very, very close dialogue with our allies. No country can handle this task alone, says Mette Frederiksen... I listen a lot to what Putin says. Both in his speech yesterday, but also on other occasions. And I notice that it is said directly from Putin's side that several different weapons and methods may be used.
CONCLUSION/SUMMARY/QUESTIONS:
What is the game here? Was the described possible sequence of events possible? What is the other possible alternative explanation then?
- Is USA threatening UK (or other ally) to press DK to release the Audio recordings which would lead public directly to the suspect?
- Why would USA NOT want to help IF it was Russians?
- Why nobody followed up on the CNN report about RU submarine?
- The vulnerability of DK through submarine exploitation is widely known. Did they ask Sweden to help out to hunt unidentified submarine?
NOTEs about other related posts:
A) It appears that the Swedish and Danish Navies became aware of suspicious activities near the island of Bornholm several days before the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up. See another post about it here.
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