PREFACE/ISSUE
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Data point that Nord Stream attack was a calculated act. This is confirmed by Jens Stoltenberg in his statement about long careful planning shortly after the event.
Data also point that the UK is the prime suspect according research and investigation of large data-set which has been collected, sorted and analysed according investigation standards.
The analysis highlights that the mission to knock out Russian energy links from European market aimed at achieving its post-Brexit foreign and domestic policy objectives.
Relevant context is provided, in external relations state area, it highlights the UK's foreign policy pivot post-Brexit, marked by enhanced military cooperation and leadership within NATO.
The analysis includes UK government statements and actions preceding and following the attack, trying to establish a connection to the sabotage.
Notably, the UK’s significant military capabilities and its pivotal role in NATO maritime operations are emphasized.
The author's discussion on the "Global Britain" initiative and its immediate rollback by following Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reflects its potential ties to the Nord Stream incident, along with its perceived lack of success thereafter.
The blog post incorporates the Russian ambassador's viewpoint regarding the failure of the "Global Britain" concept.
In conclusion, after careful examination and the synthesis of many points of view assertion is made that the UK is the prime suspect and its possible involvement in the Nord Stream attack warrants further investigation. The attack against Nordstream pipelines looks like being a part of broader conscious policy carefully carved prior to the mission itself.
- The Nordstream affair was a military (navy) operation by a state actor - see more.
- Only a large naval power capable of defending itself could organise an operation in Baltic Sea. This hints to USA and UK - see more
- NATO marine HQs are in London (MARCOM, JEF, UK RN) - see more.
- The UK post Brexit was the only state whose foreign policy needed to be reoriented, redesign. There were new challenges ahead. Also its security structures were changed shortly before the event - see more.
- There is just a one state who had a years long strong opposition against Nordstream - see more.
The destruction of the Nordstream pipelines was a deliberate act of sabotage by a state actor (OR an act of terrorism by state actor) that was part of a wider strategy to disrupt energy policies and exert political influence.
The alignment of the state actor's policies with the sabotage can be tested by analysing the economic, political, energy, security, and other policies of the state actor before and after the attack.
This hypothesis suggests that the sabotage was a deliberate and planned act that serves a larger strategic goal of the state actor, and that the state actor's policies can provide insights into the motives and objectives behind the attack.
The UK’s role as a military power and the Brexit-induced loss of influence
Brexit brought about a loss of influence. At the end of the Brexit transition period in December 2020, the UK formally withdrew from EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and its offshoot, the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).
Placed outside of relevant EU institutions (the Foreign Affairs Council and the Political and Security Committee), the UK lost its voice over what missions the EU might decide to launch and over the priorities and duration of existing EU deployments. This was a not insignificant disadvantage. While the UK had never been a major contributor to such missions, its involvement in EU bodies still gave it a formal say over their initiation and operational scope.
...as a ‘third country’, the UK is no longer represented in EU institutions and cannot participate in EU decision-making on external action, except where discussions are seen as directly relevant to the UK..
If the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy was to lead to greater EU-NATO competition, the UK would no longer be in a position to negotiate and accommodate differences between the two.
The UK is a militarily self-sufficient member of NATO...
... the UK sat second among NATO’s 30 allies, in absolute spending, after the USA.
The UK has also retained its institutional influence. The UK continues to hold the position of NATO DSACEUR. This post reports directly to NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), head of Allied Command Operations (and dual-hatted as the head of American forces in Europe) and allows for influence-shaping in two ways. First, under the so-called Berlin plus agreement, the EU can use NATO assets for operations. This allows the DSACEUR to be the main point of contact and even operational commander of EU operations that draw on NATO assets. Second, the DSACEUR leads NATO force generation..
Further, the UK emerged in 2022 as the leading European provider of military assistance to Ukraine in its defence against Russia (Kampfner 2022). It was the first European country to provide Ukraine with ‘lethal’ weaponry...
Exercising intra-alliance leadership: the promise of the Joint Expeditionary Force
By making its defence policy more international by design—including the development of combined military formations such as the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), Britain, the government contended, would ‘improve the combat power and wider influence’ which it could bring to bear on prospective crises (HM Government 2015a).
There are two key European defence collaborations that involve the pooling of military capabilities in this way: one is the Framework Nations Concept (FNC) led by Germany and the other is the JEF led by the UK.
the JEF is a notable example of UK military dynamism. It shows how the UK has taken the initiative in creating what one senior Royal Navy officer (cited in Monaghan 2022) has described as a ‘force of friends, filling a hole in the security architecture of northern Europe between a national force and a NATO force’.
8 March 2022 - NATO’S KEY ROLE IN THE UK
Nato navy - MARCOM & Northwoods, London
Headquarters, a military base in north-west London, which is home to the Alliance’s Maritime Command (Marcom), the central command of all its sea operations.
Marcom’s British commander Keith Blount is Nato’s principal maritime adviser and has operational command of its standing naval forces.
RAF Molesworth also hosts the Nato Intelligence Fusion Centre (NIFC) which includes 167 foreign Nato personnel. The centre – which was activated in 2006 with the US as its “framework nation” – provides “timely, relevant, and accurate intelligence in order to support planning and execution of Nato operations”.
US under-secretary of defense for intelligence Ronald Moultrie has said: “Without a doubt, the NIFC is the Nato center of gravity for multinational intelligence collaboration in producing high-impact intelligence for Nato operations.”
UK government policy towards Nato is coordinated by the Euro-Atlantic Security Policy Unit, a joint Ministry of Defence and Foreign Office unit established in 2016. The UK currently has 34 people working on engagement with Nato, while the policy team at the UK’s joint delegation to Nato numbers around 50.
16 March 2021 - Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy...In this context, the Integrated Review sets out four overarching objectives:
- Sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology, incorporating it as an integral element of national security and international policy to firmly establish the UK as a global S&T and responsible cyber power. This will be essential in gaining economic, political and security advantages.
- Shaping the open international order of the future, working with partners to reinvigorate the international institutions, laws and norms that enable open societies and economies such as the UK to flourish. This will help our citizens and others around the world realise the full benefits of democracy, free trade and international cooperation – not least in the future frontiers of cyberspace and space.
- Strengthening security and defence at home and overseas, working with allies and partners to help us to maximise the benefits of openness and protect our people, in the physical world and online, against a range of growing threats. These include state threats, radicalisation and terrorism, serious and organised crime, and weapons proliferation.
- Building resilience at home and overseas, improving our ability to anticipate, prevent, prepare for and respond to risks ranging from extreme weather to cyber-attacks. This will also involve tackling risks at source – in particular climate change and biodiversity loss.
The Integrated Review sets out the government’s overarching national security and international policy objectives to 2025.
21 March 2021 - Boris Johnson transforms ‘Global Britain’ slogan into an inspiring strategic plan
Johnson’s paper also comes as a belated effort to answer former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s stinging West Point speech in 1962, where he argued, “Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role.”At the time, the legendary US diplomat was praising the “vast importance” of the United Kingdom’s application to become part of the then-six-country European Common Market, which it would only join eleven years later in 1973.
His words humiliated then-British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and electrified the Fleet Street media.“The attempt to play a separate power role,” said Acheson, “that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based in being head of a ‘commonwealth’ which has no political structure, or unity, or strength–this role is about played out.”
One wonders what Acheson would say today, more than a year after the United Kingdom left the European Union (EU)—forty-seven years after it joined—and with its current prime minister searching yet again now for that elusive role.23 March 2021 - The Delusions of Global Britain, London Will Have to Get Used to Life as a Middle Power
At midnight on December 31, 2020, the United Kingdom completed its withdrawal from the European Union. Having finally signed a trade deal governing the relationship between the two sides, London was “unshackled from the corpse that is the EU,” as Brexiteers dramatically put it. The United Kingdom was now free to seek its destiny as “Global Britain.”
III. UK Exercise Submerged Crusader
20 Sept 2021 - Beneath the waves with Army divers / Submerged Crusader 2021
Army Divers are now predominately part of the Royal Engineers, and a smaller number in the Royal Logistic Corps, with divers across 12 teams. These include a team in our para engineer squadron, a team in our commando engineer squadron and a team in our Explosives Ordnance Disposal (EOD) group.
[M: About a year before Nordstream is attacked]
IV. The New-Old Global Britain
20 Sept 2021 - Global Britain is planting its flag on the world stage: article by Liz Truss
As Britain’s new Foreign Secretary, I will be there making the case for building deeper economic, diplomatic and security partnerships in order to help us seize the opportunities – and tackle the challenges – of the modern age.
22 Oct 2021 - Foreign Secretary Liz Truss Is New Face of Global Britain
22 Oct 2021 - Chief of the Defence Staff Speech to the Royal United Services Institute
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin KCB ADC, Chief of the Defence Staff Speech to the Royal United Services Institute
17 March 2022 - BoJo: We need to wean the West off Russian oil and gas
...to punish Putin’s war machine. Prime Minister @BorisJohnson has been working with partners in the UAE and Saudi Arabia on stabilising global energy markets and ramping up investments in renewable technologies.
7 April 2022 - UK updates its energy security strategy
It is crucial we work with international partners to maintain stable energy markets and prices. This will help protect UK consumers and reduce the use of fossil fuels globally. Similar to our domestic strategy, we have a dual approach to reduce global reliance on Russian fossil fuels whilst pivoting towards clean, affordable energy. To reduce global reliance on Russian fossil fuels, the UK is:
- committing to phase out the use of Russian oil and coal by the end of 2022, and end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas as soon as possible thereafter. The US has made similar commitments
- building international support to reduce Russian energy revenues. Internationally coordinated action, for example, through the G7 and International Energy Agency is key to support stable markets and to help secure the critical minerals we all need to successfully move to clean energy
- providing a key EU entry point for non-Russian supplies of gas. We are examining our infrastructure to ensure gas flows efficiently between the UK, Europe and the global market through our interconnectors and LNG terminals and promote gas infrastructure to be hydrogen-ready
Oil and gas
- Low carbon UK gas, and zero Russian imports.
26 April 2022 - Liz Truss is ready to try and beat global aggressors at their own game
[M: This is highly interesting news, in light of future NS destruction, the hit on NS and consolidation of EU foreign policy, etc, it all looks like part of strategy]
"The Foreign Secretary believes there needs to be a much greater economic underpinning to foreign policyWhen Liz Truss addresses diplomats this evening with the annual Mansion House speech, it will be the first time since her appointment as Foreign Secretary that she has set out her plan to reconfigure the UK’s foreign policy.Since Truss’s promotion to the great office of state in the autumn reshuffle, she has seen a wider geopolitical shift than many foreign secretaries have encountered in the bulk of their tenure.Berlin has cancelled the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and increased its defence spending – rewriting 30 years of German foreign policy which has been underpinned by a belief in change through trade.[M: It was not cancelled at this point, just legal issues but the project continued]
On the UK side, much of what has happened confirmed the Government assessment on the threats the West faces. The 2021 integrated review (into foreign, security and defence policy) correctly identified Russia as the greatest threat – while naming China as “a systemic challenge”.Yet with events moving as quickly as they are, the view in the Foreign Office is that the UK must now go further still. Key to this is to fix what has long been a weak flank of UK foreign policy: moving to strengthen economic ties – both with long-standing allies and those countries the UK wishes to bring into its orbit.While the West has rallied in the wake of war in Ukraine, the fact that Russia invaded in the first place was a failure of deterrence. The view of the Foreign Secretary is that in order to avoid repeating the same mistakes, a new approach is required – one in which there needs to be a much greater economic underpinning to foreign policy.[M: Is the destruction of EU-Russia economic ties an objective?]
Part of the reason Russian strength got to the point it did was that the world let its guard down – both in terms of defence spending and economic ties. In that period, other governments viewed as aggressors have expanded their reach – just look at how the Chinese government has expanded its influence in the Indo-Pacific through economic ties.Now the UK wants to beat these aggressors at their own game. It’s not just about boosting defence spending – something Truss has previously suggested would be necessary – though the Chancellor Rishi Sunak may want to look away when she gets up to speak on Wednesday.Instead, it’s engaging with other countries. “Liz wants the free world to use economics as a hard-edged tool of security and foreign policy because we’ve neglected it since the Cold War and aggressors have been bolder,” says an ally of the Foreign Secretary. “She wants to use economics to constrain rivals and also build closer trade and investment links with a wider group of countries.”Another supporter of Truss puts it this way: “We need an economic Nato.”This shift can also be summarised as a “carrot and stick” approach. The stick can be seen in the power of the sanctions levied against Russia by the G7 and its allies. The economic damage they are inflicting is leading to pain for Putin and his people. They could go further still – with a ban on imports of oil and gas; hydrocarbons make up a third of the Russian economy.As for the carrot, during the Cold War the US did two things – establish Nato and then a general agreement on tariffs and trade. This time around a wider reach would be required – taking into account those countries in the Indo-Pacific who see what’s happening in Ukraine and worry for their own security."
17 May 2022 - EU energy security: Implications for the UKHow EU dependency on Russian energy affects the UKThe UK is far less reliant on Russian gas than the EU, but security of EU gas supply matters to the UK because:
- it affects the prices of UK gas and electricity;
- it could affect the UK’s own security of supply if gas imports into the UK were re-directed to the EU;
- energy exports are economically important to Russia and changes may therefore affect geopolitical relations.
UK-EU cooperation
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stimulated UK and EU cooperation on the security of energy supply.
At the 30 March 2022 meeting of the UK-EU Specialised Committee on Energy, the UK and EU agreed to facilitate regular exchanges on the security of supply (PDF). They specifically discussed establishing a Working Group on Security of Supply as a matter of priority.
This is because there is insufficient LNG import capacity within the EU, but spare capacity in the UK as well as capacity on the pipelines from the UK to mainland Europe.
22 May 2022 - Ben Wallace, UK def secretary
Russia is ‘our number one threat’ as its submarines circle Britain
25 July 2022 - Who dares wins? Boris Johnson visits special forces troops
...days after donning camo to hang out with soldiers - as PM's allies press for him to be allowed to STAY on in No10 and minister says he would be 'comfortable if he returned to GovernmentMr Johnson's spokesman would not say if he was visiting the Special Boat Service (SBS), based in Poole, or the Hereford Based Special Air Service (SAS)- whose motto is 'who dares wins'.
V. Liz Truss´s government & Global Britain
6 Sept 2022 - Can Liz Truss save Global Britain in a disintegrating world?
The UK's new prime minister has plenty of foreign policy experience, but it might not be enough to solve problems abroad and at home.
The UK's new prime minister, Liz Truss, has been in power only a day, but she is already running out of time. So grave are the problems Britain faces. Inflation has hit double digits and energy bills are set to rise by 80 per cent next month. More crises are brewing at home and abroad.
21 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss to launch UK defence review as she calls for Russian reparations
Liz Truss will announce a new UK defence and foreign policy review on Wednesday, only 18 months after the last such analysis was concluded, to take account of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the threat posed by authoritarian regimes.21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."[M What kid of "cutting off" is this? Of UK cutting itself off, which has been done already or cutting EU off the RU gas? Note that in September 2021 the UK Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Kwasi Kwarteng told a parliamentary committee:
"We are not exposed to Russian supply as many of our EU counterparts are" ]"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."[M What kid of talk is this? That UK is ready to neuter any RU retaliation move?]"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.
We must do this together."
[M ?, looks to me as an appeal to people UK may have informed beforehand, IF UK is the culprit.]
We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.
[M ? The JEF is made to be deployed in short time on an exercise.]
08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action.The response has been built on partnerships and alliances and also on being prepared to use new instruments – unprecedented sanctions, diplomatic action, and rapid military support.There has been a strength of collective purpose – we have met many times, spoken many times on the phone, we have made things happen.Now we must use these instruments in a more systematic way to push back on the economic aggression of authoritarian regimes.The G7 and our like-minded partners should act as an economic NATO, collectively defending our prosperity.If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.
12:00 min "In all these areas, on all of the fronts, the time to act is now. This is a decisive moment in our history, in the history of this organization and in the history of freedom...
The story of 2022 could have been that of an authoritarian state rolling its tanks over the border of a peaceful neighbour and subjugating its people.
Instead, it is the story of freedom fighting back.
In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through.
But this cannot be a one-off.
This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values."
Britain’s commitment to this is total.
We will be a dynamic, reliable and trustworthy partner.
VI. Rishni Sunak´s government & Global Britain
12 Dec 2022 - British foreign policy and diplomacy: Foreign Secretary's speech, 12 December 2022
Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, gave a speech at the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office setting out his vision for UK foreign policy.
...reliable, trustworthy and long term partner...
And we will offer a reliable source of infrastructure investment through the British Investment Partnerships, through UK Export Finance, and through the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure. We’ve got the message and we know that resources need to flow more quickly from these initiatives into real projects on the ground.
15 Dec 2022 - Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
- The UK government’s vision for Global Britain aims to restore British greatness as a maritime trading nation. But this vision does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities, including the continuing importance of the EU.
- The Johnson government seems to need the perennial fights of a permanent Brexit, but this approach is eroding the UK’s capacity to cooperate with the EU on foreign and security policy.
- At the same time, as ECFR polling reveals, the British public do not have any particular animus towards the EU. While the public value British sovereignty and independence, they would support a foreign policy that worked cooperatively with the bloc.
- The public is on to something: Britain still has extraordinary assets and can forge an effective foreign policy. Yet, to do so, it must focus on British strengths, avoid military adventures in distant lands, and find balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US.
- British security and prosperity will increasingly depend on unromantic issues such as carbon tariffs and investment screening – on which the best way to protect British interests is to triangulate between the EU and US positions.
Shortly after the Greenwich speech, Johnson announced that his government would publish the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development, and Foreign Policy – which Downing Street described as “the largest review of the UK’s foreign, defence, security and development policy since the end of the Cold War”.
‘Global Britain’ was a title in search of a plot, which it was now time to back-fill. The review was published on 16 March 2021 as ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age’.
To put this in context, the government’s economic forecaster puts the damage to GDP from Brexit at 4 per cent, or twice that of the pandemic. Total UK-EU goods trade was down by 15 per cent, or £17bn, in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2018 (which the organisation used as a comparator). Although it is not easy to distinguish between the effects of Brexit and the pandemic, one estimate puts the reduction in the UK’s overall goods trade due to Brexit at 11 per cent. An academic analysis of the government’s figures concludes that, overall, new trade deals “barely scratch the surface of the UK’s challenge to make up the GDP lost by leaving the EU”.
7 Feb 2023 - Rishi Sunak waves goodbye to Boris Johnson’s Global Britain era
Rishi Sunak’s decision to merge the trade and business departments signals a technocrat’s approach to selling UK plc.
Richard G. Whitman reflects on UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly’s speech on 12 November, highlighting the absence of the previously ubiquitous phrase ‘Global Britain’ and examining what this might suggest about the Sunak government’s approach to foreign policy.
One of the catchiest lines in the speech was that “Britain has agency Britain has influence, Britain has leverage and it is my job to use it.
It was a speech, however, also noteworthy for its omissions. No mention of the ‘network of liberty’ idea that was the project of Liz Truss, Cleverly’s predecessor as Foreign Secretary. It was also notable for not using the phrase ‘Global Britain’, which has been an important mantra for UK governments after Brexit.
Dropping ‘Global Britain’ into speeches, statements and the title of government reports on Britain’s place in the world has been obligatory since first appearing in (then) Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech to the Conservative Party conference in October 2016.
Liz Truss, first as Secretary of State for International Trade and then Foreign Secretary, enthusiastically embraced the idea of Global Britain as a synonym for a UK with greater international ambition than it had demonstrated as an EU member state.
It was less embraced less by the UK Treasury in its messaging and Chancellor Sunak deployed ‘Global Britain’ less frequently than his colleagues in the major offices of state.
Mention of ‘Global Britain’ was also absent from Sunak’s first set piece foreign policy speech as Prime Minister at the Lord Mayor’s banquet on 28 November.
Contrast this to the speech given on the same occasion by Prime Minister Johnson in November 2021 with its illustrations of “Global Britain in action”.
23 March 2023 - The Struggle to Achieve Global Britain
When Westminster withdrew the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU), it promised that Britain would have global reach.No longer would it be constrained by EU bureaucracy; it could expand its trade, political and security relations beyond the European continent.
The challenge was huge, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson reminded voters of a glorious national past and raised hope that freedom from the EU could achieve commercial, political and security ambitions throughout the world.
The struggle to achieve Global Britain is hobbled by the UK’s poor economic performance, justifiably attributed to the pandemic, Ukraine war and fallout from Brexit. The aspiration for greatness, however, remains. Trade agreements with Canada, Japan and across the Pacific raise hopes that the dream can be realized. Strong military support for Ukraine has demonstrated that Britain can show leadership, and Ukraine President Zelensky’s recent visit to London before flying to Brussels was interpreted as recognition of Britain’s considerable defense contributions.
How is the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak continuing PM Johnson’s struggle for greatness?
25 March 2023 - London's attempts to implement ‘Global Britain’ concept failed, says Russian ambassador
LONDON, March 25. /TASS/. London's attempts to implement the concept of ‘Global Britain’ after leaving the European Union have failed, Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin told TASS."After Brexit, <…> the concept of Global Britain appeared," the ambassador recalled. He explained that London saw the concept in such a way that the country "would go around the world, making new arrangements, improving the trade base, benefiting from it and prospering.""All that has failed. The UK has neither the strength nor the capability. Neither economic nor political. And now another concept has been adopted: the need to establish long-term relations with promising medium-sized countries. [Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs] James Cleverly and the government are working in this direction, but in small steps," Kelin noted.
CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:
- Blowing UP the Nordstream pipeline system fulfils many objectives and is along statement of top UK politicians from years ago - see:
- The UK was faced after Brexit with new security challenges'
- The UK has found itself in nobody´s land between USA and Europe. Its alliance with Russia would be a security threat to London.
- If the UK is guilty then the Euro-Atlantic alliance prevents investigation to be published.
Was the Nordstream affair done to fulfil requirements of UK´s foreign policy? Note the Uk seems to leave that policy with latest government.
Answer: For me this is a possible motive which should be explored by investigators.
OTHER UK RELATED POSTS
most of the research about UK´s role, motives has been conducted in 2023The summary is here:
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