Sunday, April 16, 2023

043 - The role of JEF & NATO MARCOM in Nordstream Affair

PREFACE/ISSUE

Q1: It is impossible to conduct a naval sabotage type operation against Nordstream pipelines without 3 naval HQs in Northwoods, London knowing about it?

Q2: What was the role of JEF, NATO, MARCOM HQs in Nordstream affair?

 
POSTULATES:
  • The Nordstream affair was a military style operation by a state actor - see more.
  • All 3 HQs are located in Uk Northwood, London: NATO MARCOM, JEF, UK RN Naval HQ - see more.
  • Only a large naval power capable of defending itself could organise a complex operation in Baltic Sea. This hints to USA and UK - see more.

  • How was the state cooperating with largest military blocks in the area? - see Timeline
  • Two member countries of JEF are investigating as the affair happened in their EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones) - see more.
  • Was the state actor responsible for it acting alone or with other states in some alliance? -> Let´s explore!


Within NATO, the so-​called “Framework Nations Concept” is currently one of the driving paradigms of multinational defense cooperation

20 July 2016 - The Framework Nations' Concept and NATO: Game-Changer for a New Strategic Era or Missed Opportunity?

[M: This new framework is interesting but what would happen if objectives of certain group differ to that of NATO as a winder alliance]

I. JEF - the most important alliance in Baltic Sea.

Was the JEF involved or ready to respond?


Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) was established by the UK and consists of 10 North-European countries, including Norway. 

Together with the British Armed Forces, the following nine nations may form part of the JEF as required.

The official purpose of the force is to be able to react quickly with joint efforts under British leadership, to improve NATO’s reaction time and to deter Russia.

The JEF is intended as a pool of high readiness, adaptable forces that is designed to enhance the UK's ability to respond rapidly, anywhere in the world, with like-minded allies, or on behalf of international organizations such as the UN or NATO. The UK's contribution will include the lead commando, airborne, armored, aviation, air and maritime task groups. 

JEF includes the non-NATO-members Finland and Sweden, even though it is under British leadership and has as its purpose to support NATO. 

Note that this excludes largest European countries Germany and France.

JEF is described as flexible and NATO-compatible, and is in practice an extension of the British military apparatus. 

A Concept of NATO-led Groups

After the UK’s exit from the EU, it has become more clear that they have other and often conflicting interests with Germany. JEF is thus a force that is not under the command of an EU country, and the non-EU-members Norway and Iceland also participate. Thus, a number of EU countries are incorporated in a strength under British command. Additionally, it includes Sweden and Finland, which are not NATO members, under NATO-member UK’s leadership. 

13 Jan 2022Discussed the security situation with the British Secretary of State for Defence

The current crisis in Ukraine is enabling the UK to demonstrate exactly what Global Britain means and how it intends to develop as a post-Brexit European security actor.

Executing the Strategy

The March 2021 Integrated Review and Defence Command Paper confirmed the ‘Global Britain’ slogan as the cornerstone of UK foreign policy to 2030. This phrase was first used after the 2016 Brexit referendum to help develop a post-Brexit vision for the UK. However, it was criticised as overly vague rhetoric, with a succession of ministers unable to fully explain what it meant or how it was different to existing UK policy. This vacuum of detail made the slogan an easy target for anti-Brexit campaigners. 

Yet the Integrated Review was clear on the UK’s approach to European security: ‘The Euro-Atlantic region will remain critical to the UK’s security and prosperity … Russia will remain the most acute direct threat to the UK, and the US will continue to ask more from its allies in Europe in sharing the burden of collective security’. 

A European Security Network

The UK foreign secretary has spoken of the UK desire to build a ‘global network of liberty’. This is well-advanced in Europe, and recent activity is providing insight into exactly how the UK intends to develop as a post-Brexit European security actor. 

27 Jan 2022 - Global Britain Strikes Back

The UK’s Integrated Review laid down the challenge that ‘What Global Britain means in practice is best defined by actions rather than words’.

A Widening Gulf Between the EU and UK

By contrast, the EU is, thus far, having a bad crisis. It is the latest strain on the requirements of commonality in the face of geopolitical realities, and unity is fragile. Actions by the bloc’s leadership are undermining this unity in military and non-military responses to the crisis. 

The UK’s policy of a strong NATO having primacy has been vindicated, and the Alliance will likely be strengthened following this episode at the expense of the EU 

The EU has been completely side-lined by Russia. This has reinforced the Cold War maxims that the US and NATO are the leading European security actors. It vindicates the UK’s policy of a strong NATO having primacy, and the Alliance will likely be strengthened following this episode at the expense of the EU. Moreover, the EU seems fixated on sticking to its original plan for 2022 and publishing its new defence strategy: the EU Strategic Compass in March.

However, the strategy is based on a November 2020 threat assessment that does not take account of renewed Russian aggression and the potential for a rewriting of the European security order by force. This might lead policymakers in the UK to conclude that it is not negatively impacted by the absence of an institutional defence and security relationship with the EU, and that it would be supporting a flawed strategy when it has its own that appears to be working. Politically, the current government will be encouraged and seek to enhance the Global Britain narrative of the UK as an independent middle power. 

However, both the Integrated Review and the first draft of the EU’s Strategic Compass declared respectively that: ‘We (the UK) will cooperate with the EU on matters of security and defence as independent partners, where this is in our interest’ and ‘We (the EU) remain open to a broad and ambitious security and defence engagement with the United Kingdom’.

With the UK moving in a different direction to the larger EU countries, it seems unlikely at this stage that such cooperation will occur. Instead, the UK has diversified its options by using its patchwork of alliances to its advantage and leveraging the key capabilities that are of most value to smaller European countries: high-end military capabilities; signals intelligence through GCHQ; and civilian and military cyber capabilities.

There is also an opportunity for the UK to use these partnerships to shape the direction of European security to reinforce NATO’s primacy in Europe. This will both maximise its value to the US and fulfil the UK’s traditional transatlantic role, all while outside of the EU.

Europe Still Matters to London

The current crisis has enabled the UK to demonstrate its continuing desire to be a leader in European security, both via NATO and as an independent actor. 

13th March 2022 - UK to host Joint Expeditionary Force leaders for talks on Ukraine crisis

Talks will cover "increasing defensive military support to Ukraine" and the issue of "long-term energy security", it said, while the Prime Minister will urge the coalition to work towards "greater resilience against hostile state threats".

The Prime Minister said resilience to Mr Putin's threats must "go beyond our military footing".

"Together… we must ensure we are insulated from Russia's interference and impact on our energy supplies, economy and values," he added.

15 March 2022 - Joint Expeditionary Force leaders' statement: 15 March 2022
We commit to an enhanced programme of integrated JEF exercises and activities at sea, on land and in the air in the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea region. These activities, already being developed, demonstrate our solidarity, capability and resolve. We will work in complementarity to NATO and the EU to ensure that Russia cannot continue to threaten European security, including through recalibrating our approach to Russia, reducing our reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, taking part in forward defence in conjunction with our Allies, reinforcing our cooperation within and beyond the JEF, and playing an active part in restoring a safer and more peaceful world. 

16 March 2022 - What is the Joint Expeditionary Force?

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) says the UK is "proud to be at the centre of JEF", acting as the alliance's "framework" nation.

This involved "military formations within NATO, between like-minded partners that could co-operate together on military capabilities and military operations", he said.

"The Joint Expeditionary Force is the framework led by the UK."

The JEF "can act outside of the NATO framework", explained Mr Monaghan, so nations outside of NATO such as Sweden "presumably" are able to call on other JEF members to fulfill security commitments – separate to the formal obligations in other alliances.

Has the Joint Expeditionary Force deployed on operations?

In March last year, three members of JEF joined the UK to conduct maritime patrols in the Baltic Sea.

HMS Lancaster and HMS Westminster were joined by RFA Tiderace and vessels from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for a joint demonstration of the participant nations' commitment to the security and stability of the region. 

It marked the first operational deployment for JEF and included intensive training with helicopters, refuelling at sea, gunnery and air defence, sailing in close formation and acclimatising to sub-zero temperatures as JEF ships operated deep in the Baltic. 

19 March 2022 - Boris Johnson tells The Economist about his anti-Russia coalition

The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force is moving quickly against Russia

On the night of March 14th, while Russian forces were pounding Ukrainian cities, six leaders and other representatives of the Joint Expeditionary Force (jef), a British-led coalition of ten northern European countries, gathered for the first time at Chequers, the country house of Britain’s prime minister. They put their phones away for security, sat down to dinner and set to work. “We agreed that Putin must not succeed in this venture,” Boris Johnson told The Economist the next day.

JEF largely unknown outside defence circles, was established a decade ago as a high-readiness force focused on the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea regions (see map for its members). Unlike NATO, it does not need internal consensus to deploy troops in a crisis: Britain, the “framework” nation, could launch operations with one or more partners. As one British officer puts it: “The JEF can act while NATO is thinking.” 

They agreed to “co-ordinate, supply and fund” more arms and other equipment requested by Ukraine. And they declared that jef, through exercises and “forward defence”, would seek to deter further Russian aggression—including provocations outside Ukraine that might stymie nato or fall under its threshold

25 March 2022 - The Joint Expeditionary Force: Global Britain in Northern Europe?

The JEF is the UK-led framework nation construct (others are led by Germany and Italy). While there are no JEF-dedicated standing forces, the United Kingdom provides command and control through its deployable Standing Joint Force Headquarters (SJFHQ) based in Northwood, England. 

Under an “opt-in” arrangement, every nation can provide capability and expertise as it sees fit, depending on the nature of the task and the partners involved. Fully operational since 2018, the JEF’s initial deployments have mainly focused on Baltic security.

Forces under the JEF banner have deployed several times in support of the BALTOPS exercise, a NATO-led exercise held annually since 1972. Last year the JEF conducted its first maritime task group deployment on security patrol in the Baltic Sea to reassure allies in the region, in addition to conducting Exercise Joint Protector in Sweden.

28 March 2022 - Six JEF nations conduct FONOP patrols in Baltic Sea region

The UK Royal Air Force’s new Poseidon P8A and submarine hunter aircraft rehearsed with the ships to spot enemy vessels. 

[MRT: Would be interesting to learn if they not were testing how hard is to discover a submarine?] 

30 March 2022Johnson says the JEF is playing an increasingly  March important role in countering Russian aggression.

15 April 2022 - The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

Admiral Sir Antony David Radakin, KCB, ADC, Chief of the Defence Staff 

JEF recognises that the character of warfare has evolved, and the distinction between peace and war is not as clear as it once was.

The grey area this creates has allowed our adversaries to develop new ways of threatening us, and we recognise the need to counter this by protecting, engaging and constraining the threat.

We therefore see advantage in the JEF being able to take collective action below the traditional threshold of conflict, if necessary, before NATO declares Article V, in a complementary capacity to NATO.

11 May 2022Britain pledges military help to Sweden, Finland if attacked

6 June 2022 - Joint leaders statement by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the Rt Hon Boris Johnson and the Prime Minister of Estonia, Mrs Kaja Kallas: 6 June 2022

...We agree on the need to end dependence on Russian hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and will work together to accelerate the development of alternatives...

15 June 2022Joint statement by Joint Expeditionary Force Defence Ministers

JEF Defence Ministers also took part in a table-top exercise to practise the JEF’s role in responding to an escalating crisis, including the relationship between the JEF and NATO in such a scenario.

17 June 2022 - Joint Expeditionary Force Countries Practiced Defense-Political Crisis Management

This week, ministers from the JEF states met in Norway to practice how to interact in a crisis situation. “We must be fully ready to act swiftly in case of a crisis or threat against our countries”, says the Danish Minister of Defense. 

 “The JEF defense ministers discussed present security challenges, including the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and assessed the future development of the JEF to ensure its continuing to provide an efficient contribution to security and stability in its core region consisting of the High North, the North Atlantic, and the Baltic Sea”, the defense ministers say in a joint statement after their meeting.
For Norway, the JEF supplements other cooperation formats such as NATO in an early, yet tense situation to get an overview and be able to de-escalate a potentially dangerous development, according to the Armed Forces.

Minister-level training

Last winter and spring, a series of multinational military exercises have taken place in the Nordics, while training about political and military crisis management for defense ministers and lead defense representatives is hardly ever mentioned.

We must be fully ready to react swiftly and efficiently in case of a crisis or threats against our countries. It is important that we constantly work together with our allied and close partners to strengthen our cooperation, not least in the current security policy situation”, Danish Defense Minister Morten Bødskov (S) says in a press statement.

The goal of the exercise was to practice the rapid reaction force’s handling of an escalating crisis, and that in a way that support NATO’s role.

We are in the middle of a critical time for European and international security and the coming together and discussing issues of mutual interest, as well as demonstrating unity, is essential” says Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Center Party) in a press statement.

Both the meeting and the exercise has shown that our countries are capable and willing to work together to face joint security threats and challenges in our region”, Gram adds.

27 June 2022 - Indispensable: NATO’s Framework Nations Concept beyond Madrid

The JEF is an example of NATO’s Framework Nations Concept (FNC), established at the Wales Summit in 2014 to encourage multinational groups within the alliance to develop deployable capabilities, led by a “framework nation.”

The United Kingdom’s intent to form the JEF was originally declared in a 2012 speech by then chief of the defense staff, General Sir David Richards: “The JEF will be of variable size; a framework into which others fit.” It was conceived and “designed to meet our NATO obligations,” based on the experience of Libya, where “Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were able to play a vital role by bringing their regional expertise into the command structure of a NATO operation.” 

Leadership of the JEF was cemented as a UK priority in its 2015 defense review as part of the United Kingdom’s policy of becoming “international by design.” 

On June 28, 2018, a new MOU formally declared the JEF able to “deploy over 10,000 personnel from across the nine nations.” Iceland joined in 2021, after which the 10 JEF nations issued a new policy directive “designed to provide the overarching policy framework within which the JEF can evolve as a concept and operate as a force, across a broad spectrum of operational activity. 

NATO Special Operations Headquarters (NSHQ) Special Operations Component Command was declared fully operational at the 2014 Wales summit 

Hungary, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Partner Finland will conduct the third Ramstein Alloy exercise in 2022 with a focus on NATO’s Deter and Defend concept... Spanish NASAMS air defence systems will simulate the defence of Lielvarde Air Base in Latvia against aerial attacks – a skill set that fighter pilots need to practice establishing air superiority during defensive operations, e.g. in an Article 5 situation... For the first time we are including both air- and surface-based Integrated Air and Missile Defence activities in our drills... NATO’s ‘Deter and Defend’ concept increases the level of integration and planning of Allied military activities. It seeks to counter threats by providing a common framework for deterrence and defense in peace, crisis, and war. The concept leverages a deliberate rhythm of military activity across the Alliance and across all operational domains and functional areas.  

  

30 Sept 2022 - Royal Navy leads huge military exercise around the UK

The biggest military exercise in the UK begins tomorrow as more than 11,000 sailors, soldiers and aircrew wage a 12-day ‘war’ around the British Isles.

From Cape Wrath and the Hebrides to the North Sea and Channel, naval forces from across NATO will grapple with attacks from above, on and below the waves during Joint Warrior, Britain’s long-standing test of it – and international – military by land, sea and air.

More than 20 ships and a handful of submarines, led by seven Royal Navy warships, including destroyer HMS Diamond and three frigates (Kent, Northumberland and Somerset), plus a couple of Royal Fleet Auxiliary tankers are participating. 

 More than 30 aircraft, including RAF Typhoon fighters and long-range maritime patrol aircraft will be committed, as well as drone technology and exercise planners intend to use ‘virtual’ aerial assets alongside live ones to test the response of participants.

Anti-submarine ships, aircraft and helicopters will hunt down live submarines, while land forces dealing with foes will include the gunners of 29 Commando Royal and elements of the US Marine Corps.

“Exercise Joint Warrior is a fantastic opportunity to fully demonstrate HMS Kent’s wide-ranging capabilities in close consort with other Royal Navy units, ground units, air assets and multinational forces,” said the Commanding Officer of the Portsmouth-based frigate, Commander Jez Brettell.

Joint Warrior is typically run from Clyde Naval Base, with the action mostly focused in north-west Scotland and adjacent waters.

This latest exercise, however, casts its net across the British Isles. Naval task groups will face each other down in both the North Sea off the coast of Scotland and the north-east coast of England, then again in the western Channel off Cornwall and Devon.

As a result, the exercise – which is due to end on October 12 – will be directed from RAF St Mawgan, near Newquay in Cornwall. 

30 Sept 2022Exercise Northern Strike proves a vital test for NATO partnership working

01 Oct 2022 - Metter Frederiksen "Things can happen that we have not had the imagination to imagine" 

We are vulnerable, we are worried, and we are in very, very close dialogue with our allies. No country can handle this task alone, says Mette Frederiksen...  I listen a lot to what Putin says. Both in his speech yesterday, but also on other occasions. And I notice that it is said directly from Putin's side that several different weapons and methods may be used. 

1 Oct 2022 - Putin could launch attacks on West in SPACE says head of Britain's armed forces Admiral Sir Tony Radakin

Sir Tony Radakin said Russia would be heavily targeted by Western allies it would garner a strong response and be hurt significantly. 

He argued the UK had the resolve to see the crisis through and overcome the impending threats of Russian aggression. 

The 56-year-old went on to argue that Putin did not want war with NATO.

At the same time the united front shown by the Western powers has been a huge incentive for the people of Ukraine. 

[M: Looks like admission to me. If Russia attacks some of our infrastructure... Hallooo... the Nordstream has just been attacked.... Russia would be heavily targeted.... If just "UK had the resolve", then I suppose the attack against NS is primarily a UK operation? Then he basically says that Russia has limited sets to respond and analysts confirmed him that Russia will most likely not respond. The act unifies against RU for UA support. /my understanding, reading between words.]  

European leaders believe both explosions were an intentional act carried out on the Kremlin's orders 

[M: Why is DailyMail telling that European leaders believe that it was Russia on Kremlin orders? What is the source?]

Sir Tony declined to blame Russia but said they had the capabilities to damage the Continent and Ukraine on information battles.

[M: Duh, looks like he speaks about limited RU response now, looks like the most expected scenario they modelled.] 

1-12 October - NATO forces participate in UK-led Exercise Joint Warrior

More than 11,000 personnel from NATO countries are participating in UK-led Exercise Joint Warrior. Taking place from 1 to 12 October, the biannual exercise includes defence against simulated attacks above, on, and below the water – extending from Cape Wrath and the Hebrides in the north, to the North Sea and the western Channel.

3 Oct 2022 - "The person responsible for the Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks is unlikely to ever be held accountable", Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Commander of the German Navy, told Monday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".


"The basis for seeing possible events is a clear picture of the sea, or observation. If there is a clear picture of the air, surface or subsurface — almost clear, because you cannot always be completely sure — then you can look at anomalies in the system and then you can bring a special unit to the area where the anomaly was detected,"
 Kaack said.

3 Oct 2022 - After deliberate damage was caused to the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, 

@BWallaceMP today spoke to counterparts from Joint Expeditionary Force partners.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace added:

"In this period of heightened concern for all like-minded partner nations, it is right that we act with speed, agility and collective resolve to actively demonstrate our shared commitment to mutual security."

The group condemned the blatant attacks against civilian infrastructure.

The JEF is a group of like-minded nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom. The nations share the same purpose, values and a common focus on security and stability in the JEF core regions of the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea region.

[M: Note this statement - "The JEF will ensure complementarity, alignment and transparency with NATO as well as the investigation led by Danish, Swedish and German authorities."

[M: To me it looks like that any statement by a single actor if stonewalled for investigations to proceed. I am suspicious that this means the UK (if guilty) is trying to supress any data leaks. Normal statement would be FULL COOPERATION and HELP for investigators providing ALL DATA.]  

3 Oct 2022 - Royal Navy warships deployed to help guard gas supplies after attack on Nord Stream pipelines ‘ordered by Putin’

BRITAIN has sent warships to protect North Sea gas pipes and internet cables from Russian sabotage.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace ordered a Type 23 frigate and the survey ship HMS Enterprise to face down the potential threats.

Enterprise uses sonar and mini sub drones to scan the seabed for signs of interference such as mines and monitors on cables and pipes.

Mr Wallace refused to explicitly blame Russia for the Nord Stream blasts.

But he said Russian spy ships were routinely seen near our critical national infrastructure.

3 Oct 2022 - British frigate in North Sea to protect pipelines

A Royal Navy Type 23 frigate is in the North Sea as part of efforts to protect underwater infrastructure following attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines.

HMS Somerset is working with the Norwegian Navy to reassure those working near the gas pipelines.

“The group condemned the blatant attacks against civilian infrastructure,” the MoD said on Twitter. 

[M: Protecting NOR-UK pipelines against possible RU retaliation?]

3 Oct 2022 - After deliberate damage was caused to the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, 

@BWallaceMP today spoke to counterparts from Joint Expeditionary Force partners.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace added:

"In this period of heightened concern for all like-minded partner nations, it is right that we act with speed, agility and collective resolve to actively demonstrate our shared commitment to mutual security."

[M: What if the Nordstream attack was a false flag operation to wither frame or to provoke retaliation? A country that activates a direct conflict is not covered by NATO Article 5. The attack on key export infrastructure mainly owned by Russia could trigger international conflict.] 

3 Oct 2022 - Joint statement by Ministers of the Joint Expeditionary Force

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace met virtually with ministers from Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) partner nations to discuss attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

The JEF condemns in the strongest terms the reckless sabotage in the Baltic Sea. It is discussing security responses, including increased maritime presence and Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance activities. It will seek to deter further such acts, reassure allies and demonstrate collective commitment to the security and stability of the region. Ministers discussed increasing shared intelligence assessments to ensure common situational awareness, as well as cooperation to secure critical infrastructure. The JEF will ensure complementarity, alignment and transparency with NATO as well as the investigation led by Danish, Swedish and German authorities.

 Defence Secretary Ben Wallace added:

In this period of heightened concern for all like-minded partner nations, it is right that we act with speed, agility and collective resolve to actively demonstrate our shared commitment to mutual security. 

3 Oct 2022 - Joint statement by Ministers of the Joint Expeditionary Force

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace met virtually with ministers from Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) partner nations to discuss attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

The JEF condemns in the strongest terms the reckless sabotage in the Baltic Sea.

It is discussing security responses, including increased maritime presence and Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance activities.

It will seek to deter further such acts, reassure allies and demonstrate collective commitment to the security and stability of the region.

Ministers discussed increasing shared intelligence assessments to ensure common situational awareness, as well as cooperation to secure critical infrastructure.

The JEF will ensure complementarity, alignment and transparency with NATO as well as the investigation led by Danish, Swedish and German authorities.

The JEF is a group of like-minded nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom.

 The nations share the same purpose, values and a common focus on security and stability in the JEF core regions of the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea region.

 The JEF provides a responsive, capable, and ready military force that undertakes integrated activities at sea, on land and in the air, across northern Europe. These activities are preventative and proportionate and demonstrate solidarity, capability, and resolve to stand together for security and stability in the JEF core regions.


Defence Secretary Ben Wallace added:

 "In this period of heightened concern for all like-minded partner nations, it is right that we act with speed, agility and collective resolve to actively demonstrate our shared commitment to mutual security."

7 Oct 2022 - NATO ships participate in UK Exercise Joint Warrior 22-2

Exercise Joint Warrior is a training event into which the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), NATO and partner nations’ formations, units and their Staffs can participate and undertake Collective Training. The aim is to provide a complex environment in which the participants can train together, honing tactics and skills in preparation for a deployment as a Combined Joint Task Force and to ensure maximum preparedness in the face of any future threat.

Joint Warrior is a UK-led multinational exercise that takes place in spring and autumn each year over a two-week period, historically off the coast of North West Scotland but increasingly agile in location to conduct readiness training where benefit is greatest. The Royal Navy, Royal Air Force and British Army are joined by forces from NATO, JEF, and partner nations. The exercise doesn’t only allow participating units to practice operating in sub-threshold and conflict levels of warfare – it also helps encourages broader engagement and greater interoperability.

17 Oct 2022 - UK and Swedish Air Forces conduct live air attack exercise Baltic Striker

The exercise was conducted as part of an effort to continue enhancing the JEF interoperability. 

24 Oct 2022 - Exercise Cerberus 22 - British Army’s largest European exercise in a decade

The large-scale command post exercise, Ex Cerberus 22 is taking place in Germany aimed at confirming that the five British Army brigade headquarters that sit within the division are ready for operations. It sees the exercise, previously held in the UK on Salisbury Plain Training Area, move to its new central European location to test its ability move personnel and equipment on a large scale and to operate in an expeditionary setting rather than being close to home.

30 Oct 2022JOINT PROTECTOR

is an annual pre-planned deployment. Training underpins everything JEF does and results in Solidarity - Capability - Resolve.

This year JOINT PROTECTOR is held in Denmark, and features all ten JEF nations

8 Nov 2022 - UK JEF HQ reminds DK its past

Denmark 🇩🇰 joined the JEF in 2014. During a JEF meeting in 2022 Danish Minister of Defence, Morten Bødskov, signed a declaration of cooperation with the UK and described it as a demonstration of "unity, stability, and security in our region." #JEFtogether 

9 Nov 2022 - The Joint Expeditionary Force meeting

JEF is a coalition of 10 like-minded nations who work together to promote security and stability in northern Europe. Defence ministers from member states met in Edinburgh yesterday to discuss matters of European security. 
 
19 Dec 2022 - Heads of State and Government of the Joint Expeditionary Force agree on further support to Ukraine and enhanced security cooperation

The JEF leaders also stressed in their joint statement that this year its Member States had enhanced their capability to operate together in crisis situations and confirmed their readiness to further develop and test JEF capabilities in the joint exercises in the region, including the JEF Warrior Arctic scheduled for 2023. The leaders in RÄ«ga meeting agreed on enhanced cooperation in tackling hybrid threats to Member States’ subsea data and energy infrastructure. 

  • The Commander Surface Forces NATO, coordinates the overall operational effort. In peacetime they are the Commander of the Standing NATO Naval Forces. Through the NATO Shipping Centre they directly liaise with the commercial shipping community and maritime security agencies. 
  • Commander Submarines NATO commands submarines under NATO operational control.
  • Commander Maritime Air NATO commands the activities of Maritime Patrol Aircraft under NATO operational control.

II. NATO - MARCOM 

Was the NATO involved or ready to respond?


MARCOM  = Allied Maritime command

MARCOM AT A GLANCE - Providing 360° Deterrence and Defence at Sea, with a forward looking approach

Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) is the central command of all NATO’s standing maritime forces, ranging from our four permanent Task Groups, to submarines and maritime aircraft.

Through Command of NATO forces, and coordination with Allied navies, we ensure NATO maintains its operational superiority at sea, working to protect the Alliance.

MARCOM’s area of responsibility (AOR) ranges from the Arctic, to the North Atlantic, to the BalticMediterranean and Black seas. We work alongside our counterparts in Land Command, Air Command, and the three Joint Forces Commands to ensure that NATO is ready to anticipate threats and respond to any situation in any environment. Together, we implement Deterrence and Defence in the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA). The Commander of MARCOM is the Principal Maritime Advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and for a decade we have been the sole Maritime Component Command for the Supreme Headquarters of the Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE).

[M: So a next reason why Russia was very unlikely behind the Nordstream sabotage - see Russian motives list - here]


NATO Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) is the central command
of all NATO maritime forces and the Commander of MARCOM is the
principal maritime advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
(SACEUR).

 Like its land and air Theatre Component Command counterparts  (LANDCOM & AIRCOM), MARCOM as the Maritime Theatre Component Command, operates under NATO’s Allied Command Operations (ACO) Commander – SACEUR.

 Located in Northwood, United Kingdom,

MARCOM is a multinational headquarters manned by over 400 officers, petty officers and civilians from almost all NATO countries and representatives from NATO partner nations.

Under direction of the Commander, three one-star Admirals/
Commodores command NATO Maritime assets. 

Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA) Alliance collaboration to enhance our effectiveness in understanding the maritime environment.

Alliance Collaboration on MSA improves common understanding of the MARITIME environment and reduces redundancy of efforts

Monitoring and analysing maritime activity is a core task for national and NATO naval forces and headquarters.

MARCOM works to enhance the MSA understanding for Allied Command Operations (ACO) and all Allies in the maritime domain. A shared operational picture and practiced interoperability leads to better indications and warnings, providing strategic anticipation of threats for all members of the Alliance 

[M: It is impossible to think that NATO MARCOM was NOT aware of the issue or someone skilfully bypassed it. How?] 

  

III. NATO Deter and Defend  


26, 27 Sept 2022 - On September 26 and 27, Allies
Hungary, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Partner Finland will conduct the third Ramstein Alloy exercise in 2022 with a focus on NATO’s Deter and Defend concept...

Spanish NASAMS air defence systems will simulate the defence of Lielvarde Air Base in Latvia against aerial attacks – a skill set that fighter pilots need to practice establishing air superiority during defensive operations, e.g. in an Article 5 situation...

For the first time we are including both air- and surface-based Integrated Air and Missile Defence activities in our drills...

NATO’s ‘Deter and Defend’ concept increases the level of integration and planning of Allied military activities. It seeks to counter threats by providing a common framework for deterrence and defense in peace, crisis, and war.

 The concept leverages a deliberate rhythm of military activity across the Alliance and across all operational domains and functional areas.  


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V. Another NATO member after...

5 Oct 2022 - US considering offering to analyse underwater audio recordings to aid Nord Stream pipeline sabotage investigations

The US Navy’s processing of the sonar signatures – the term for the unique underwater sounds – provided by Sweden and Denmark could boost the investigations by providing a more detailed picture of what was in the area at the time of the pipeline explosions and what caused them, sources said... 
Each type of underwater machinery like submarines, torpedoes and vessel engines makes a unique sound that is called a “sonar signature,” and the US has an extensive library of these sounds.

[M: Why would USA want to do that?]

11 October 2022 - NATO Doubles Naval Presence in Baltic, North Seas After Pipeline Sabotage 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday warned Russia against any future attacks on NATO critical infrastructure. “Allies are also increasing security around key installations and stepping up intelligence and intelligence-sharing,” he said ahead of a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels. “We will take further steps to strengthen our resilience and protect our critical infrastructure. Any deliberate attack against allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response."

[M: This NATO statement is bizzare and opaque. 

Hello! The Key EU Energy Critical Infrastructure has been just hit. This statement could be read that NATO is expecting a Russian retaliation pipeline-for-pipeline, attack on another key infrastructure, or attack on satellites, ITC infra, etc.

Considering it was not Russia. Did NATO deploy the joint naval forces to protect against future attacks by one of their own on European critical infrastructure?]

V. Norweigean Institute of International Affairs

24 - 25 Oct 2022 - ‘Global Britain’ and security in the near abroad Leadership through flexilateralism?

...While there has been an increased focus and optimism within the defence ministries of the JEF states as to JEF’s potential contribution to European security, it is interesting to note that following the 2022 sabotage actions against the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, the opportunity to coordinate and act within a JEF frame was not taken.

One of the perceived benefits of JEF is that it is envisioned to be used in support to NATO in operations that fall below the Article 5 threshold. However, whereas the investigation of the explosions and patrolling the area could have been a low-hanging fruit for a JEF operation, the JEF states decided instead to act within a NATO framework, possibly to not exclude Germany from the process of dealing with the situation...

In addition to the above, the UK has also intensified its bi- and minilateral collaboration with Nordic and Baltic states in recent years – including bilaterally with Finland and Sweden following their decision to apply for NATO membership. All these initiatives could be seen to play into the UK’s attempt to define itself as an actor in the Northern region and to maintain its status as a European great power and key player in the region.

V. NATO Exercises & Technical issues

Nordstream emergency response plan and yearly check-ups

Tracking Astute submarines in 2022 


CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

  • Blowing the Nordstream pipeline contributed to UK post Brexit security the most out of other states, see post. 

  • Was the UK pursuing such objective or was it coincidental achievement? Lets explore in next post.
  • Neither NATO nor JEF prevented someone blowing Nordstream - FACT, yet nobody is calling for their responsibility.
  • German head of military was replaced lately. Was that for failure to protect the Nordstream? 
  • All 3 HQs are located in UKNorthwood, London: UK MARCOM, JEF, UK Naval HQ 
  • The 2 FEF countries (SWE, DK) are investigating the affair. 
  • Yet there is no investigation in NATO, JEF, UK?
 Perhaps, there was small inquiry here? See more!.

SUM:   

       The Nordstream affair is an issue between European countries.

The USA does not seem to be involved. The role of Kaersarge group is explored here and it looks like they were actually protecting Nordstream pipelines and left area 23-09-2022 just 3 days before the event. See here.

  

Follow me on twitter Mortymer001 

 


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