Britain signed Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1968
The UK & Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear WeaponsResearch Briefing
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into force in January 2021. It is the first multilateral, legally binding, instrument for nuclear disarmament to have been negotiated in 20 years.
However, the nuclear weapon states have not signed and ratified the new treaty, and as such, are not legally bound by its provisions. The lack of engagement by the nuclear weapon states subsequently raises the question of what this treaty can realistically achieve.
Position of the British Government
The British Government did not participate in the UN talks and will not sign and ratify the new treaty. It believes that the best way to achieve the goal of global nuclear disarmament is through gradual multilateral disarmament, negotiated using a step-by-step approach and within existing international frameworks, specifically the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Government has also made clear that it will not accept any argument that this treaty constitutes a development of customary international law binding on the UK or other non-parties.
The UK will not participate as an observer state in the first meeting of States Parties later this month.
The UK reformulates its geo-strategy in face of tensions in East Europe
27 Jan 2022 - Global Britain Strikes Back
The UK’s Integrated Review laid down the challenge that ‘What Global Britain means in practice is best defined by actions rather than words’.
A Widening Gulf Between the EU and UK
By contrast, the EU is, thus far, having a bad crisis. It is the latest strain on the requirements of commonality in the face of geopolitical realities, and unity is fragile. Actions by the bloc’s leadership are undermining this unity in military and non-military responses to the crisis.
The UK’s policy of a strong NATO having primacy has been vindicated, and the Alliance will likely be strengthened following this episode at the expense of the EU
The EU has been completely side-lined by Russia. This has reinforced the Cold War maxims that the US and NATO are the leading European security actors. It vindicates the UK’s policy of a strong NATO having primacy, and the Alliance will likely be strengthened following this episode at the expense of the EU. Moreover, the EU seems fixated on sticking to its original plan for 2022 and publishing its new defence strategy: the EU Strategic Compass in March.
However, the strategy is based on a November 2020 threat assessment that does not take account of renewed Russian aggression and the potential for a rewriting of the European security order by force. This might lead policymakers in the UK to conclude that it is not negatively impacted by the absence of an institutional defence and security relationship with the EU, and that it would be supporting a flawed strategy when it has its own that appears to be working. Politically, the current government will be encouraged and seek to enhance the Global Britain narrative of the UK as an independent middle power.
[MRT: The UK Global Britain is described in this post]
However, both the Integrated Review and the first draft of the EU’s Strategic Compass declared respectively that: ‘We (the UK) will cooperate with the EU on matters of security and defence as independent partners, where this is in our interest’ and ‘We (the EU) remain open to a broad and ambitious security and defence engagement with the United Kingdom’.
With the UK moving in a different direction to the larger EU countries, it seems unlikely at this stage that such cooperation will occur. Instead, the UK has diversified its options by using its patchwork of alliances to its advantage and leveraging the key capabilities that are of most value to smaller European countries: high-end military capabilities; signals intelligence through GCHQ; and civilian and military cyber capabilities.
There is also an opportunity for the UK to use these partnerships to shape the direction of European security to reinforce NATO’s primacy in Europe. This will both maximise its value to the US and fulfil the UK’s traditional transatlantic role, all while outside of the EU.
Europe Still Matters to London
The current crisis has enabled the UK to demonstrate its continuing desire to be a leader in European security, both via NATO and as an independent actor.
28 Feb 2022 - Ukraine conflict: Russia blames Liz Truss and others for nuclear alert
Vladimir Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert after comments by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and others, the Kremlin has said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "unacceptable" remarks were made about possible "clashes" between Nato and Moscow over Russia's attack on Ukraine.
It is unclear precisely which comments by Ms Truss Russia objects to.
Let´s start from the beginning:
2 March 2022 - Ukraine: Calls for no-fly zone rejected by defence secretary
Calls for a no-fly zone to be imposed by Nato forces over Ukraine have been rejected by the UK's defence secretary. Ben Wallace reiterated warnings that this would likely trigger a Europe-wide conflict with a nuclear-armed power.
28 Feb 2022 - Putin issued nuclear order in response to Liz Truss comments, Kremlin says
“I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary.”
Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert in response to comments made by foreign secretary Liz Truss, the chief spokesperson for the Russian president has said.
Mr Putin’s command, issued on Sunday, significantly escalated the crisis over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising the spectre of a worldwide nuclear conflict.
Today, his spokesperson Dmitry Peskov blamed “unacceptable” comments from Western politicians for prompting the move, and singled out Ms Truss.
“There were unacceptable statements about possible conflict situations and even confrontations and clashes between Nato and Russia,” said Mr Peskov.
21 March 2022 - Today the Prime Minister met nuclear industry leaders today to..
... discuss how to improve domestic energy security and accelerate nuclear projects in the UK.
26 July 2022 - Celebrated head of the Royal Navy’s Submarine Service retires
Commodore Jim Perks handed over command to Commodore Paul Dunn in a ceremony at the home of the Silent Service at Clyde Naval Base in Scotland... It marked the end of a 38-year naval career, which saw Cdre Perks climb the ranks from junior rating to the Officer Corps before going onto command the Submarine Flotilla in 2016 and eventually becoming head of the service in January 2020... He has also spent time on shore as Assistant Staff Officer Operations at Clyde, with Fleet Operational Sea (Submarines), with the Maritime Warfare Centre as head of underwater warfare pillar, and with the operations team of the Naval Staff within the MOD... His most recent post was as Head of Nuclear Planning in the Director General Nuclear Organisation.... In 1995 Commodore Perks completed the Submarine Advanced Warfare Course and re-joined Spartan as the Operations Officer. It was just one year later that he was made an instructor on the Submarine Advanced Warfare Course.
28 July 2022 - The Integrated Review, Defence in a Competitive Age and the Defence and Security Industrial Strategy
The MoD argues that the Integrated Review identified Russia as a threat and that the conclusions drawn have been reviewed but seem to be enduring. However, we have concerns that the MOD have not managed to assuage.
In oral evidence in June 2021, the Secretary of State set out what he perceived to be the most significant threats: Russia, China, terrorism and Iran. In November 2021, the National Security Adviser also highlighted the threats posed by Russia, China and terrorism as significant, and added CBRN proliferation and the development of advanced military weaponry to that list.
The Government has also pointed to the description in the Integrated Review documents of Russia as “the greatest nuclear, conventional military and sub-threshold threat to European security” (25 HL Deb,7 April 2022, col 2184)
24 August 2022 - The foreign secretary, Liz Truss, says that she is not afraid to use nuclear weapons if she becomes prime minister.
31 Aug 2022 - Boris Johnson to visit nuclear submarine yard in latest stop on PM's farewell tour
BoJo said on 31st August 2022: "From the Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea, our submarine service is protecting the UK and our allies 24 hours a day, seven days a week"
6 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss becomes new PM in UK.
Liz Truss sends 4 identical "Letters of last resort" to 4 Trident captains of nuclear deterrence submarines. Liz Truss asked about nuclear weapons: 'I'm ready to do it' 'I'm ready to do it'.
6 Sept 2022 - Letters of last resort: PM’s early task to write to UK’s nuclear sub commanders
One of Liz Truss’s early tasks will be to write instructions by hand to each of Britain’s four nuclear submarine commanders, directing them how to respond in the event of an all-out attack that will have killed her and destroyed the UK. They are known as the letters of last resort.
But first, Truss will receive a briefing from Britain’s military chiefs on how the Trident nuclear deterrent operates – including the likely military and human consequences of authorising a retaliatory strike.
CONCLUSION/HYPOTHESIS:
MRT: There is a good set of data to support a hypothesis that:
- Liz Truss broke NPT by delivering a bomb to Ukraine to be used as a false flag to be used to destroy a bridge or to explode over Black sea.
- It is possible that Truss tried to escalate as the Nordstream mission did not reach expected results
- The crisis was defused. Both Russia, USA, and France solved the issue peacefully.
- Liz Truss was fired due to this.]
I will write a post about this in one OF THE NEST next instalments.
POSSIBLE NUCLEAR FALSE FLAG IN UKRAINE WAS PREPARED:
3 Oct 2022 - Britain's former First Sea Lord hails nuclear weapons as the 'ultimate safeguard'
6 October 2022 - Remarks by President Biden at Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Reception
7:32 P.M. EDT
...There’s a lot at stake in American foreign policy as well, where I spend most of my time and my — my career, I should say.
And we have some real difficult decisions to make, relative to what’s going on in Ukraine, and we’re going to continue to support them.
But first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat of the use of the nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue down the path they’ve been going.
That’s — that’s a different deal. That’s a different deal...
Let me put it this way. Think about it: We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. We’ve got a guy I know fairly well; his name is Vladimir Putin. I spent a fair amount of time with him. He is not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical and nuclear weapons, or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.
It’s part of Russian doctrine that they will not — they will not — if the motherland is threatened, they’ll use whatever force they need, including nuclear weapons.
I don’t think there’s any such thing as an ability to easily lose a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.
With the world on tenterhooks over whether Vladimir Putin might resort to non-conventional arms in Ukraine to turn around his faltering invasion, Zelensky described how "preventative strikes" were a disincentive for such atomic weapons.
7 Oct 2022 - UN: World Gripped by ‘Apocalyptic’ Scenario Amid Nuclear Weapons Threat, First Committee Hears as General Debate Continues Nuclear-Armed States Urged to Scale Back European Theatre of Conflict
Nuclear-armed countries must commit to responsible conduct and promptly scale back the European theatre of conflict.
The representative of the Russian Federation, speaking in exercise of the right of reply, rejected the unfounded and unproven insinuations made by several delegations. Responding to the accusations of nuclear weapon threats by his country, he declared that an anti-Russian Federation campaign of twisted Western propaganda. The Russian Federation’s nuclear deterrence doctrine was exceptionally clear: it did not allow for expansive interpretations and was only defensive in focus. His country’s official rhetoric did not exceed the bounds of that policy and was fully in line with international obligations.
11 Oct 2022 - West may not see a Russian nuclear attack coming, UK spy chief says
ADULTS TAKE OVER THE NEXT CUBN STYLE CRISIS:
11 Oct 2022 - Putin will meet head of UN nuclear watchdog in St. Peterburg, Russia
NATO Defence Ministers will meet in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday (12-13 October 2022) to step up and sustain support to Ukraine and continue to strengthen NATO’s own defences, against the backdrop of Russia’s most significant escalation since the start of the Ukraine conflict...
On Thursday, the Secretary General will chair a meeting of the Nuclear Planning Group to discuss Russia’s dangerous nuclear rhetoric and the role of NATO’s nuclear capability in preserving peace and deterring aggression.
...NATO is not party to the conflict...
We are closely monitoring Russia’s nuclear forces...
NATO Secretary General: NATO is prepared for any threat, any attack, against any NATO Ally. And that's the reason why we have NATO, to be able to deter also nuclear threats. And this was important before the invasion of Ukraine, it has become even more important after. Not least in light of the nuclear rhetoric from President Putin and from Russia. This nuclear rhetoric, or veiled threats, are dangerous and reckless. Russia knows that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. And we also conveyed clearly to Russia that they will have severe consequences if they use nuclear weapons in any way, including low yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine...
...The purpose of this is to prevent war, preserve peace, and including prevent any use of nuclear weapons.
“We’re going to continue to stand together with our allies in Europe and send an unmistakable message. We will defend every single inch of NATO territory with the full might of the united and galvanized NATO,” Biden said after announcing additional sanctions on Russia. “We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent.”
This morning, Allies had the regular meeting of the Nuclear Planning Group.It is important we continue to consult and coordinate on nuclear issues.President Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible.
We take these threats seriously.
And we remain vigilant.
We will not be intimidated.
Any use of nuclear weapons would fundamentally change the nature of the conflict, and have severe consequences.
[MRT: I suppose that could be said also about false flag nuclear low yield explosions on bridges ]
Russia knows that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.
Deborah Haynes (Sky News, UK): Thank you very much. Thank you, Secretary General. The French President has said that France would not retaliate with nuclear weapons should Russia launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine or in the region. Would NATO consider a nuclear response to such an attack? And is France undermining Western deterrence by unilaterally ruling out a nuclear response?
[MRT: against Ukraine (perhaps a false flag as low yield tactical nuke against e.g. Ukrainian bridge) in the region (or a false flag over Black sea?)]
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: The fundamental purpose of NATO's nuclear deterrent is to preserve peace and deter aggression, and prevent coercion against NATO Allies.The circumstances in which NATO might have to use nuclear weapons are extremely remote. Russia's nuclear rhetoric is dangerous, reckless. And they know that if they use nuclear weapon against Ukraine, it will have severe consequences. And they also know that a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.
[MRT: Could the answer be interpreted that there is no way the false flag would succeed as Russia has said clearly and have in constitution they will use it only for defense?]
Dmytro Shkurko (National News Agency of Ukraine): Thank you. National News Agency of Ukraine, Dmytro Shkurko. Secretary General, you just mentioned that the exercises you will held next week will be routine one. But would you consider some kind of scenario, taking into account the Russian rhetoric, because right now they are threatening to blow up by the nuclear weapons the Ukrainian bridges. But that means the contamination of soils and waters. This is dangerous not only for Ukraine, for Russia, and also for Europe. Could that kind of development trigger the Article 5? Thanks.
[MRT: I was unable to find any mentions that Russia wants to blow Ukrainian bridges with nukes. Where did that come from? Note that later news will come up that Truss was worried exactly about this. Why, and why her?]
NATO Secretary General: The Steadfast Noon exercise is a long-planned exercise. It’s an annual exercise. It was planned before the invasion of Ukraine and we have been transparent on this. And the purpose of that exercise is to ensure that our nuclear deterrent is safe, secure and effective. And this is to prevent coercion. It is to prevent an attack on a NATO Ally. It is to preserve peace. Because we know that our nuclear deterrent is our ultimate deterrence. Deterrence is the way to prevent any attack on a NATO Ally and to preserve peace. And we have demonstrated that NATO's nuclear deterrent is effective and works. We have done that for decades.
STANDOFF:
Nato will test its ability to launch a nuclear strike in a training exercise over the UK, North Sea and Belgium next week, the alliance said on Friday.
[MRT: The exercises shows that NATO is defensive only and allies hold together even behind the UK.]
16 Oct 2022 - UK ‘likely already wargaming’ response to potential Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine
CONFESSION, WE HAVE MESSED THIS UP:
17 Oct 2022 - Why wasn't Liz Truss in Parliament? Penny Mourdant denies PM was 'cowering under her desk' as she was missing from urgent question
[MRT: She was missing before and after the Nordstream attack also. Same pattern here.]
Liz Truss had a ‘very good reason’ for a Commons no-show, but it’s a secret.
17 Oct 2022 - Ben Wallace: I’m staying defence secretary
[MRT: Perhaps he was against breaking NPT?]
RUSSIA SIGNALS TO BE READY FOR RETALIATION IF THE UK´S FALSE FLAG GETS GREEN LIGHT, DE-ESCALLATION FOLLOWS:
17 Oct 2022 - NORAD detects, tracks, identifies and intercepts Russian aircraft entering Air Defense Identification Zone, Alaskan NORAD Region
18 Oct 2022 - Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on October 18, 2022.
18 Oct 2022 - What Happened In Washington Between The UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace And NSA Jake Sullivan?
Secretary Wallace flew out of the UK yesterday on short notice amid growing concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin may act on his threats to use tactical nuclear weapons.
18 Oct 2022 - Pentagon Pressed on Whether Austin-Wallace Meeting Centered on Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
18 Oct 2022 - UK: PM call with President Macron of France
ZELENSKI SEEMS TO SPIL BEANS:
[MRT: The Zelenski´s comment seems to show that a "twin sting" operation was prepared. The attack against the Crimean bridge was a red line for Russia. They did not retaliate in kind (nuclear tactical attack on Ukrainian bridge) but surgically took out Ukrainian energy nods. The expected outcry in the West against action on Russia for its brutal bombing did not happen.]
LIZ TRUSS IS FIRED, WAS IT FOR BREAKING NPT?
20 Oct 2022 - Liz Truss spent final days as PM 'obsessed with weather amid Putin's nuclear threats'
Liz Truss became the shortest serving Prime Minister in British history but her final few days allegedly saw her focus on the weather as she feared of nuclear attack from Russia.
Liz Truss spent her final days of her historically ill-fated tenure as British Prime Minister "obsessed" with the weather forecast after Russia threatened the use of a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea.
A source told the paper she was "obsessed with the prevailing wind, watching the forecasts to see if she needed to trigger a Protect and Survive plan" - a public information campaign in the 1970s and 80s advising people how to protect themselves in a nuclear attack.
Now it has been revealed she was warned Vladimir Putin could 'go nuclear' after Ukrainian forces blew up the road bridge connecting Russia and Crimea.
She spent her final days in office monitoring the weather conditions, according to Mail Online, as wind speed and direction would determine whether radiation from a nuclear attack in Ukraine would have an impact in the UK.
21 Oct 2022 - UK: DUCK AND COVER Five life-saving steps you must take IMMEDIATELY after nuclear bomb attack if deranged Putin blitzes West
"The military leaders both agreed on the importance of maintaining open channels of communication between the UK and Russia to manage the risk of miscalculation and to facilitate de-escalation."
[MRT: There was escalation - now they facilitate de-escalation]
But Truss, speaking to CNN’s State of the Union programme in an interview released on Sunday, said: “We should not be listening to his sabre-rattling and his bogus threats.“Instead, what we need to do is continue to put sanctions on Russia and continue to support the Ukrainians because if Putin is allowed to succeed… it also would send a message to other authoritarian regimes around the world that it’s somehow acceptable to… invade a sovereign nation.“So this is why it’s so important that we continue to be resolute, we don’t listen to the sabre-rattling that we’re hearing from Putin, and we continue to back the Ukrainians to the hilt.”
25 Oct 2022 - Biden: Russia's Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Would be 'Serious Mistake'
[MRT: Perhaps he said it to Uk not to launch the false flag?]
U.S. President Joe Biden issued a strong warning on Russia against using a dirty bomb or any other nuclear weapons in its war on Ukraine.
"Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake for the use of tactical nuclear weapons," he said Tuesday when a reporter asked whether Russia is setting up a "false flag operation" – preparing to deploy dirty bomb as it accuses Ukraine of detonating it in its own territory."I'm not guaranteeing you that it's a false operation yet. I don't know. But it would be a serious, serious mistake," he said.
[MRT: The question remains, whom was this message for? Russians or Britain?]
In a major speech in Moscow, the Russian president also criticised western leaders for playing a "bloody and dangerous" game in Ukraine and warned the era of western domination was over.
28 Oct 2022 - How Powerful Are UK Nuclear Weapons?
The UK has come closest to creating a minimum nuclear deterrence. The UK possesses 225 nuclear warheads, 120 of which may be deployed aboard four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). This estimate is based on public information on the British nuclear arsenal, talks with UK officials, and nuclear forces structure analysis. The UK’s only nuclear platform and delivery system are SSBNs with 16 missile tubes.
[MRT: Could UK modify one missile and deliver it to Ukraine?]
WAS RUSSIA THREATENING BRITAIN?
6 Nov 2022 - Germany's Scholz calls on Russia to 'CLEARLY' declare it will not use nuclear weapons6 Nov 2022 - Russia has missiles which could hit London in 9 minutes
7 Nov 2022 - Rishi Sunak and Suella Brawemen are evacuated (video)
UK PM Rishi Sunak runs off stage and is rushed out of the room. What‘s happening?
DIRECT TALKS BETWEEN ADULTS:
A Royal Navy nuclear-armed submarine had to abandon its mission and resurface, after a fire broke out onboard following an electrical fault.
The Ministry of Defence said the incident on HMS Victorious happened six weeks ago.
8 Nov 2022 - Ukraine war: US confirms 'communications' with Kremlin
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has confirmed communication channels between Washington and Moscow remain open.
It comes as the White House refuses to deny reports that Mr Sullivan has been leading talks with Russia to prevent a nuclear escalation in Ukraine.
Speaking in New York, Mr Sullivan said it was "in the interests" of the US to maintain contact with the Kremlin.
But he insisted officials were "clear-eyed about who we are dealing with".
The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr Sullivan has held confidential discussions with his Russian counterpart, Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and senior Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, over the past several months.
Last month, Mr Sullivan said any use of nuclear weapons would have "catastrophic consequences for Russia". He told the US broadcaster NBC that senior officials had "spelled out" the scope of the potential US response in private discussions with Russian officials.
US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson refused to confirm the story, telling the paper that "people claim a lot of things", while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Western newspapers of "publishing numerous hoaxes".
But White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre said on Monday that the United States reserved the right to hold talks with Russia.
And Mr Sullivan - who is said to be one of the most senior advisers to US President Joe Biden still pushing for discussions with Russia - said maintaining contact with Moscow was in the "interests of every country who is affected by this conflict".
AFTERPARTY:
10 Nov 2022 - UK convenes Joint Expeditionary Force ministers in Edinburgh
Military leaders and government officials from France, Germany, and the Netherlands visited the first-in-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), during exercise Silent Wolverine, Nov. 11, 2022.
24 Nov 2022 - Ukraine's new ambassador takes office
Use of dirty bomb planned? Kiev and Western nuclear powers reject Russian claimsIs there a risk of further escalation of Russia's war in Ukraine? In a phone call with Western counterparts, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Ukraine wanted to drop a conventional bomb laced with nuclear material to blame Russia. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this was unbelievable. The claim suggests that Moscow itself is planning something dirty, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
[MRT: What has UK Defence minister to do with that?]
25 Nov 2022 - 'Outrageous': Brussels sparks fury as it blocks export of nuclear defence tech to UK
The UK needs a so-called specialised isostatic press to maintain its nuclear arsenal, which includes the Trident II D5, the Royal Navy's ballistic missile system with a range of over 4,000 nautical miles
Britain and Belgium are locking horns in a furious despite after Brussels blocked the export of nuclear technology that plays a crucial role in maintaining the UK's nuclear deterrent.
[The company is a BLG-US owned. This could be one way how to end the UK as a rogue nuclear armed power which is unpredictable. The US would REPLACE UK nukes with own.]
28 Aug 2022 - Increasing Evidence That The US Air Force’s Nuclear Mission May Be Returning To UK Soil
29 Aug 2023 - Airbase project could pave way for UK to host US nuclear weapons
20 Nov 2023 - Nuclear-armed submarine suffered malfunction
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