Wednesday, November 29, 2023

The USA de-escalates possible Russian nuclear response even before Nordstream is hit, NATO protect Trans-Atlantic alliance afterwards

ISSUE:

In the face of the Nord Stream terrorist attack, NATO is defending transatlantic ties, the unity of North America and Europe, and American leadership.

What happened?

Approximately one week before the attacks on Nord Stream 1 and 2, NOR Prime Minister Store and Defense Minister Graham shared intel with the Department of Defense and EU allies.

This data shows that the US and her EU allies were aware that an attack on the Nord Stream pipeline could occur within days.

USS Kersage Group leaves the Baltic Sea after Russian President Vladimir Putin vows to protect Russia's integrity with nuclear weapons.

Protection of the pipeline was left to the Europeans. Several anti-submarine missions were conducted in the Baltic Sea.

The United States priority was own security. The United States initiated de-escalation before explosions occurred.

NATO sought to protect the integrity of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance.

Another covert mission took place in early October 2022, leading to the dismissal of Liz Truss.

 

19 Sept 2022 - NOR Prime Minister and Defence Minister visited US Navy

On Monday, the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister visited the US Navy 2nd Fleet and the NATO Joint Force Command in Norfolk, US. Both forces are responsible for naval activities in the North Atlantic and for US-European defence cooperation. These areas are of great importance to Norway as well.

[Mrt: Note that he flies to USA Norfolk NATO HQ not the one in Europe]

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram had a meeting on Monday with US Navy representatives on board the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier.

‘The war in Ukraine has completely changed the security policy situation. The US and Norway share an interest in maintaining a good overview and adequate situational awareness of any activity taking place in Norway’s neighbouring areas. We already have excellent cooperation structures in place for this,’ said Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram.

[MRT: The USA has been using Kaersarge group before 23rd of September to have situational awareness but after 23rd od SEptember when Kaerserge left Baltic Sea the US sent own P-8 from Iceland. These provide direct link to the US, data which is not shared with NATO. The uSA needed these for own security.] 

 21 Sept 2022 - Norway must rely mostly on its allies

NEWS ANALYSIS: As the leader of Norway’s neighbouring Russia shocked the world again, now with nuclear threats, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre readily concedes that his government must rely on the US and other NATO allies for any needed defense. They’ve all been gathered at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, but just before that, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was flown out to visit a US aircraft carrier at sea.

[MRT: Gram and Støre flew on 19-09-2022 to USA to deliver important intel - post here]

21 Sept 2022 - Putin speech on partial mobilisation: What exactly did he say?

Partial mobilisation

“In such a situation, I consider it necessary to make the following decision, which is fully appropriate to threats we face. Namely, in order to protect our motherland, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to ensure the safety of our people and people in the liberated territories, I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the defence ministry and the General Staff to conduct a partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation.”

“We are talking about partial mobilisation. That is, only citizens who are currently in the reserves and, above all, those who have served in the armed forces, have military skills and relevant experience. Only they will be subject to conscription.”

Fighting the West

Today our armed forces are operating across a front line that exceeds 1,000 km, opposing not only neo-Nazi formations but the entire military machine of the collective West.”

NATO is conducting reconnaissance across the south of Russia. Washington, London and Brussels are directly pushing Kyiv to move military action to our country. They are openly saying that Russia should be defeated on the battlefield by any means.”

Nuclear weapons

Nuclear blackmail has also been used. We are talking not only about the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – encouraged by the West – which threatens to cause a nuclear catastrophe but also about statements from senior representatives of NATO countries about the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia: nuclear weapons.

I would like to remind those who make such statements about Russia that our country also possesses various means of destruction, and in some cases, they are more modern than those of NATO countries. When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we, of course, will use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.

This is not a bluff. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them.

21 Sept 2022 - Former Putin adviser threatens nuclear strikes on UK: ‘Your cities will be targeted’

Ex-Russian lawmaker Sergei Markov blames Biden, Johnson, Truss for war after Putin announces partial mobilization; UK minister: ‘Talk of nuclear war is completely unhelpful’

A former key adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Britain with nuclear strikes in an interview with the BBC on Wednesday, shortly after Moscow announced a widespread mobilization of troops.

“In Russia there’s partial mobilization and for your British listeners Vladimir Putin told you that he would be ready to use nuclear weapons against Western countries, including nuclear weapons against Great Britain,” Sergei Markov told the BBC.

Your cities will be targeted,” said the former Russian lawmaker, who serves as a key public defender of the Kremlin to the international press. 

Everybody in the world now is thinking of nuclear war,” Markov said, claiming that a potential escalation would be due to the “crazy behavior” of US President Joe Biden, as well the former and current British prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

Biden, Johnson and Truss are fully responsible for the war in Ukraine,” he claimed, nearly seven months after Russia invaded its neighbor. 

“It was absolutely clear that Russia has no war against Ukraine, Russia has no reason to use technical nuclear weapons against Ukrainians,” Markov said. 

22 Sept 2022 - USA withdraws large fleet from the Baltic Sea

Port visit of the “Kearsarge” in the Polish naval port of Gdynia last Wednesday. The visit to Poland marked the end of the Baltic Sea presence of the large battle group around the 40,000-ton carrier.

One day after Russia announced partial mobilization, the USA is withdrawing its amphibious battle group from the Baltic Sea. But the withdrawal is said to have a completely different reason.

[MRT: Perhaps that Norway blew the whistle on 19-09-2022 that the BoJo plan to blow Nordstream which was postponed has not be cancelled and is still on?] 

September 22, 2022, 12:31 p.m

Kiel. Shortly before 10 a.m. on Thursday morning, a large US combat group passed through the Fehmarnbelt. The direction of travel was out of the Baltic Sea. The “Kearsarge” battle group has fulfilled its mission. 

23 Sept 2022 - Blinken, China's Wang discussed need for open lines of communication -U.S. statement

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Friday discussed the need to maintain open lines of communication between the two countries, the State Department said on Friday.

24 Sept 2022 - Combined Naval Exercise: U.S. Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier Arrives South Korea

25 September 2022 - Zelenskyy on Putin’s threat of nuclear weapons: ‘I don’t think he’s bluffing’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s threat of nuclear weapons use “could be a reality,” in an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

“He wants to scare the whole world. These are the first steps of his nuclear blackmail. I don’t think he’s bluffing,” Zelenskyy said

25 Sept 2022 - Secretary Blinken answers: Would anyone in Russia stop Putin if he wanted to use nukes?

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told 60 Minutes the Kremlin has a nuclear "chain of command" but it's uncertain whether anyone would tell Russian President Vladimir Putin "no" if he decides to launch a nuclear weapon.

"And that is the Achilles heel of autocracies anywhere," the secretary of state said. "…There is usually not anyone who has the capacity or the will to speak truth to power. And part of the reason, I think, Russia has gotten itself into the mess that it's in is because there is no one in the system to effectively tell Putin he's doing the wrong thing." ¨

Putin drafted 300,000 reservists and threatened nuclear war last Wednesday, and emphasized, "this is not a bluff." In an address to his people, Putin told his people that the West is bent on destroying the Russian homeland.

[MRT: The 25th was Sunday, Wednesday was 22nd. What happened see here and here. The next day 23rd was interesting for Liz Truss - here] 

"President Biden has been determined that as we're doing everything we can to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, as we're doing everything we can to rally other countries to put pressure on Russia, we're also determined that this war not expand, not get broader," Blinken explained.

25 Sept 2022 - Stoltenberg - NATO does not want a confrontation with Russia

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of recklessness in the face of new threats. Putin himself knows that a nuclear war should never be fought and cannot be won, Stoltenberg told ZDF's "heute journal" on Wednesday. from New York. A nuclear conflict is dangerous for Russia and for the rest of the world. It is not the first time that Putin has used "nuclear rhetoric." use. But that doesn't change the West's duty to remain calm.

[MRT: Interesting that also NATO tries to de-escalate on 25th]  

25 Sept 2022 - Scholz wants to avoid escalation between Russia and NATO

After the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of Russian reservists for the war of aggression against Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) confirmed that he wanted to avoid an escalation between Russia and NATO at all costs. Germany has always supported Ukraine comprehensively, but at the same time ensured that such an escalation does not occur, said the SPD politician on the ARD “Tagesthemen”. "We will continue on exactly this path."

 [MRT: Interesting that also Germany tries to de-escalate on 25th]  

7:16 p.m.: Scholz - Staying the course even after Putin's declaration

Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces that he will stick to his course even after ordering partial Russian mobilization. If Russian President Vladimir Putin were to threaten to use nuclear weapons again, “we would say again: that is unacceptable. But at the same time, we remain on our measured, decisive course to support Ukraine and prevent an escalation of the war beyond that between Russia and Ukraine. And that's exactly how we will continue to do it," Scholz told ARD Tagesthemen according to the preliminary report. Germany will also remain on its current course when it comes to supplying weapons. It remains the case that Germany does not go it alone. 

25 Sept 2022 - Jake Sullivan: US will act ‘decisively’ if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

US national security adviser says: ‘Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia

We have communicated directly, privately and at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the US and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” Sullivan told CBS’s Face the Nation.

Sullivan said that the Russian leader had been “waving around the nuclear card at various points through this conflict”, and it was a matter that Biden’s administration has “to take deadly seriously because it is a matter of paramount seriousness – the possible use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the second world war”.

25 Sept 2022 - Transcript: National security adviser Jake Sullivan on "Face the Nation,"

SULLIVAN: We have been crystal clear up to and including President Biden that we will not recognize the sham referenda, they in no way represent the will of the Ukrainian people. And we will treat this territory for what it is - Ukrainian territory, not Russian territory. And we will continue to support the Ukrainians as they seek to deoccupy this territory. So we've been clear, we're not going to stop or slow down our support to the Ukrainians, no matter what Putin tries to do with these-these fake elections and fake referenda and annexation.

Now, when it comes to the question of nuclear use, President Putin's been waving around the nuclear card at various points through this conflict the last few days are not the first time


(CROSSTALK)

MARGARET BRENNAN: –But he hasn't been as cornered as he is now.

SULLIVAN: It's true, and it is a matter that we have to take deadly seriously because it is a matter of paramount seriousness – the possible use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the Second World War.

We have communicated directly, privately, at very high levels to the Kremlin, that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the United States in our allies will respond decisively. And we have been clear and specific about what that will entail. We have, in public, been equally clear, as a matter of principle, that the United States will respond decisively if Russia uses nuclear weapons and that we will continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its country and defend its democracy.

25 Sept 2022 - Meet the Press - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Sara Fagen, Mike Memoli, Amna Nawaz and Jen Psaki

Globally, the existential threat to democracy is Vladimir Putin, whose decision to invade Ukraine has produced the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. Putin is now threatening to use Russia's nuclear weapons, saying in a televised address, "This is not a bluff." President Biden responded at the United Nations. 

CHUCK TODD:

While you were talking, we were able to show some footage of people voting with – under the supervision of armed Russian guards, so just to give folks a taste of what kind of referendum this is. I want to talk about the nuclear threats from Vladimir Putin.There was a report this week that folks in the Biden administration have made it clear, privately, of the severe consequences. Does this mean the red phone is working again? Because at the beginning of this conflict there was a lot of concern that some of the basic communications that we had from military to military, intel to intel, you had a hard time getting your counterparts to return calls. Does this mean the red phone is working again?

JAKE SULLIVAN:

Well, Chuck, we've been careful to protect the timing and the content of the conversations we have with the Russian government, with the Kremlin.

But the answer to your question is yes.

We do have the capacity to speak directly at senior levels and to be clear about our messages to them and to receive their messages.

That has happened frequently over the course of the past few months.

It has happened even in just the last few days.

But we have not wanted to indicate exactly what those channels look like because we want to be able to protect them so that we have the continuing ability to reach Russia and tell them in no uncertain terms, for example, what the consequences would be, and they would be catastrophic if Russia went down the dark road of nuclear weapons use.


CHUCK TODD:

I guess the question is, why this, why the strategic ambiguity here? Why not draw a public line? If he's publicly threatening nuclear weapons, why not send a public message, which I'm sure the people in Europe and Ukraine would like to hear, that says, "You cross this line, Katy bar the door, Mr. Putin?"

JAKE SULLIVAN:

Well, let me say it plainly. If Russia crosses this line there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively. Now, in private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean, but we want to be able to have the credibility of speaking directly to senior leadership in Russia and laying out for them what the consequences would be without getting into a rhetorical tit for tat publicly. But we will not hesitate in saying publicly that there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia --

CHUCK TODD:

You've used that --

JAKE SULLIVAN:

– if they --

CHUCK TODD:

– word twice --

JAKE SULLIVAN:

choose to proceed. And the United States and our allies will respond decisively.

[MRT: Sulivan implies that Russia will have a choice how to proceed.]

CHUCK TODD:

You've used that word “catastrophic” just now twice. I assume you will not give more definition to that, but should Putin use the definition of his imagination there? “Catastrophic” is just that, as bad as he could imagine?

JAKE SULLIVAN:

Well, Russia understands very well what the United States would do in response to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine because we have spelled it out for them, and I will leave it at that today. But as far as the question of deterrence is concerned, you know, Russia will make its decisions, but it will do so fully understanding that the United States will respond decisively. And from our perspective, we will continue to be sharp and clear with them so that there is no mistake about where things stand from our perspective.

26 Sept 2022 - The USA has communicated with Russia through

Red Line de-escalation Phone

"US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday night that the US had “communicated directly, privately to the Russians at very high levels” how it would respond if Vladimir Putin carried out the nuclear strike threat he made during an address last week"

26 Sept 2022 - NSA Jake Sullivan says the "red phone" is working again and the White House can speak with the Kremlin at "senior levels."

"That has happened frequently over the course of the past few months. It has happened even in the last few days."

26 Sept 2022 - Blinken sends another twitter message

27 Sept 2022 - Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre 9/26/22 Transcript

Speaker 4: (16:16)
And with the warnings that we saw from Jake Sullivan, Tony Blinken, all of these figures yesterday, about the catastrophic warnings that they say that they’ve communicated to Russia if Russia chooses to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, does the United States believe that, even if it’s still low, does it believe the chances of Russia using nuclear weapons is higher now than it was in February, in March, given what’s happened on the battlefield?

[MRT: Why in Ukraie?]
 
Karine Jean-Pierre: (16:39)
So, as far as any evidence or the chances, look, we haven’t seen that at this time. We take these threats, though, very seriously. But we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture at this time. So, again, haven’t seen any evidence of it. But we take this incredibly seriously.

Speaker 8: (27:11)
Thank you. Does President Biden share Zelenskyy’s assessment that Putin is not, quote, “bluffing” when it comes to his threats about nuclear weapons?

Karine Jean-Pierre: (27:21)
So I mean, we’ve been very clear on this. The Putin’s nuclear threat against Europe are irresponsible, and it’s reckless. You’ve heard the president say this. You’ve heard the National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, he was most recently on a few Sunday shows. And the consequences of nuclear use would be disastrous for Russia and the world, and Russia would be a pariah on the world stage.

[MRT: Nuclear threat against Europe. Not against USA.] 

Karine Jean-Pierre: (27:47)
This is not new rhetoric. We have heard this before from Russia. We have heard this before from Mr. Putin. They have made these threats before, over the course of this conflict, this past six months or more. We, of course, take it seriously. Again, we take this very, very seriously.

[MRT: Well, the key most profitable Russian export facility has just been destroyed.] 

Karine Jean-Pierre: (28:04)
Though I would add that Russia itself has said many times that a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought. This is something that they have said, including earlier this year in the P5 joint statement. As the president made clear, any use of nuclear weapons on any scale should be and would be disastrous for the world and would entail severe consequences.

Speaker 8: (28:31)
Well, and regarding these catastrophic consequences that Link and Sullivan, yourself, have said would occur if there are nuclear weapons used, I mean, can we assume that these would be consequences beyond sanctions, that there would be some sort of a military response? What more can you say on what catastrophic consequences mean?

Karine Jean-Pierre: (28:55)
Jake Sullivan said this yesterday, as well, is that we have had private conversations. The NSC and his team has had private conversations and communicated privately directly to the Russians, and they understand that. They understand exactly what those consequences would be. We are not going to lay that out in the public. We are not going to have these negotiations or share these conversations in public. But again, to reiterate what our national security advisor said just yesterday is that they have made that very clear and spoken directly to the Russians and they understand.

Speaker 8: (29:38)
Are there any plans for President Biden to relay that directly to Putin in some way?

Karine Jean-Pierre: (29:43)
We don’t have any calls to preview at this time. Welcome back.

 27 Sept 2022 - NATO Secretary General at EU Parliament: Stay the course on Ukraine

Mr Stoltenberg said that NATO is monitoring the situation in the Baltic Sea closely, Allies are looking into the gas leaks from both Nord Stream pipelines, and also exchanging information with Finland and Sweden.

The discussion with the Socialists and Democrats group is part of the Secretary General’s regular engagements with EU lawmakers, in the framework of NATO’s strategic partnership with the EU.

27 Sept 2022 - NATO Secretary General convenes top Alliance procurement officials

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg convened an extraordinary meeting of the Conference of National Armaments Directors (CNAD) on Tuesday (27 September 2022) at NATO Headquarters.

[MRT: The UK´s Minister of Procurement is Alec Shelbrooke]

27 Sept 2022 - Opening remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a meeting of the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats in the European Parliament

Then there is, of course, another type of escalation, and that is an escalation beyond Ukraine.

The war that is going on in Ukraine now is bad, and a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. But of course, a full-fledged war between NATO and Russia would be even worse.

Therefore, we need to ensure that this doesn’t evolve into a full-fledged war in Europe.

 And we do that partly by being very clear that NATO and NATO Allies are not party to the conflict.

But then, of course, we are also preventing escalation of the conflict into NATO territory by sending a very clear message that if an NATO Ally is attacked, then that will trigger a response from the whole Alliance.

And as long as that is clear, NATO Allies will not be attacked and the conflict will not escalate, because we are there to protect each other, and by standing together we are safer and stronger.

Let me add one more thing, and that is that I think what we have seen throughout this conflict is the importance of the transatlantic bond, North America and Europe standing together, and American leadership. Of course, European Allies have stepped up and European Allies are doing more.

27 Sept 2022 - NATO Secretary General convenes top Alliance procurement officials

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg convened an extraordinary meeting of the Conference of National Armaments Directors (CNAD) on Tuesday (27 September 2022) at NATO Headquarters.

The Secretary General urged Allies to continue replenishing stocks as rapidly as possible. “Enhancing NATO stockpiles will ensure we can keep supporting Ukraine,” he said. “We need to keep working together as NATO Allies and with industry to replenish our munitions stocks and provide Ukraine with the support it needs, for as long as Ukraine needs it,” he added.

28 Sept 2022 - US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have now both characterized the incident as an act of sabotage, but European officials have not yet publicly identified a culprit.

30 Sept 2022 - US president Joe Biden has said damage to Nord Stream was a deliberate act of sabotage.

30 Sept 2022 - Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly At a Joint Press Availability

REMARKS - ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE

BENJAMIN FRANKLIN ROOM - WASHINGTON, D.C

FOREIGN MINISTER JOLY: To add to that, obviously we support NATO’s and the EU’s declaration regarding the sabotage of the pipelines. We think that it is a very important European infrastructure. That is why I also had the opportunity to talk to my Danish and Swedish counterpart and obviously we spoke about it as well.

SECRETARY BLINKEN: I think first it’s important to make clear that these pipelines – that is, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 – were not pumping gas into Europe at this time. Nord Stream 2 never became operational, as is well known. Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for weeks because of Russia’s weaponization of energy.

What we’ve been doing – and we’ve also been working on this together for many, many weeks as we saw the Russian aggression in Ukraine and as we saw the ongoing weaponization of energy by Russia – is to work very closely with European partners as well as countries around the world to make sure that there is enough energy on world markets.

And so we’ve significantly increased our production as well as making available to Europe liquefied natural gas. And we’re now the leading supplier of LNG to Europe to help compensate for any gas or oil that it’s losing as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

[MRT: The EU lacks the LNG import facilities but the UK has large spare unused capacity. A few days after the UK becomes, afte years net energy exporter - post here ]

We’ve worked to release oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to make sure as well that there is oil on the markets and to help keep prices down. We’ve engaged with the European Union and established months ago a task force to work directly with Europe on ways to decrease demand to help get through the winter, as well as to pursue additional supply and to find ways to speed up the transition to renewables even as we’re getting through this challenging period. So all of that work is ongoing.

My own sense – and I mentioned this the other day – is, look, there’s a lot of hard work to do to make sure that countries and partners get through the winter. Europe itself has taken very significant steps to both decrease demand but also look at ways to pursue the transition to renewables at the same time. And ultimately this is also a tremendous opportunity.

[MRT: Would the USA learned who was behind, or would the US know about the mission beforehand, does that make them co-responsible IF they keep silent about it and profit from it, I mean legally? Was the US legally bound to prevent the event or not?] 

It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs.

[MRT: The definition of knocking Russian main export facility as an "opportunity" excludes the Russia being responsible] 

That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile, we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure that the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world.

SECRETARY BLINKEN: Shaun, thank you. First, on the pipelines, we’ve been in very close contact with our partners in Europe – notably with Denmark and Sweden. We are supporting the investigation into these attacks on the pipelines and working to be able to determine who is responsible.

[MRT: Supporting local investigation excludes support to the international investigation] 

But I don’t want to get ahead of those investigations; that work is ongoing. I think everyone by now is well aware of something that Mélanie alluded to more broadly, but specific to Russia, which is the outrageous misinformation and disinformation campaigns that it engages in.

So I really have nothing to say to the absurd allegation from President Putin that we or other partners or allies are somehow responsible for this, but we will get to the bottom of what happened, and we’ll share that information as soon as we’re – as soon as we have it. But I don’t want to get ahead of the investigation that’s ongoing.

When it comes to the rhetoric we’ve heard from President Putin on nuclear weapons, you heard us speak to this very directly at the United Nations this week. This kind of loose talk about nuclear weapons is the height of irresponsibility and it’s something that we take very seriously. We are looking very carefully to see if Russia is actually doing anything that suggests that they are contemplating the use of nuclear weapons. To date we’ve not seen them take these actions, but we also know that Russia’s engaged in horrific – a horrific brutalization of Ukraine. And so the threats that they make, we take very seriously. As to President Putin’s intent, I’m not going to speculate on what’s in his mind. I can just tell you that we plan against every possible scenario, including this one.

[MRT: The US shows that the Russian response to the attack on its key export facility is unclear] 

September 2022 -  NORAD - Operation Noble Defender - September 2022 - Military aircraft from the three NORAD regions conducted defensive maneuvers along the northern and western approaches to North America. Most flights were conducted over sparsely populated Arctic and Pacific areas. 

30 Sept 2022 - NATO Threatens Retaliation After Gas Leaks It Says Were Likely Sabotage

The NATO military alliance warned Thursday it would retaliate for any attacks on the critical infrastructure of its 30 member countries and joined other Western officials in citing sabotage as the likely cause of damage to two natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

[MRT: Retaliation to Retaliation to the attack?] 

30 Sept 2022 - NATO Threatens Retaliation After Gas Leaks It Says Were Likely Sabotage

The NATO military alliance warned Thursday it would retaliate for any attacks on the critical infrastructure of its 30 member countries and joined other Western officials in citing sabotage as the likely cause of damage to two natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

30 Sept 2022 - Exercise Northern Strike proves a vital test for NATO partnership working

31 Sept 2022 - NATO chief meets Danish PM to address Nord Stream 'sabotage'



1-12 October - NATO forces participate in UK-led Exercise Joint Warrior

More than 11,000 personnel from NATO countries are participating in UK-led Exercise Joint Warrior. Taking place from 1 to 12 October, the biannual exercise includes defence against simulated attacks above, on, and below the water – extending from Cape Wrath and the Hebrides in the north, to the North Sea and the western Channel.

11 Oct. 2022 - Secretary General previews meetings of NATO Defence Minister

NATO Defence Ministers will meet in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday (12-13 October 2022) to step up and sustain support to Ukraine and continue to strengthen NATO’s own defences, against the backdrop of Russia’s most significant escalation since the start of the Ukraine conflict...

On Thursday, the Secretary General will chair a meeting of the Nuclear Planning Group to discuss Russia’s dangerous nuclear rhetoric and the role of NATO’s nuclear capability in preserving peace and deterring aggression. Next week, NATO will hold its long-planned deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon, “this is routine training, which happens every year to keep our deterrent safe, secure and effective.” Mr Stoltenberg said.
NATO Defence Ministers will meet this week at an important moment for transatlantic security.

We will review our progress on strengthening NATO’s deterrence and defence.

We will further increase the protection of our critical infrastructure, in light of the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines...

...NATO is not party to the conflict...

We are closely monitoring Russia’s nuclear forces.

We have not seen any changes in Russia’s posture.
But we remain vigilant.

At the Madrid Summit in June, NATO leaders decided a fundamental shift in our defence and deterrence to respond to the new security reality.¨...

We will also address the protection of our critical infrastructure.

NATO has been working on this for many years.

And following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, we have further enhanced our vigilance across all domains.

We have doubled our presence in the Baltic and North Seas. To over 30 ships.

Supported by maritime patrol aircraft and undersea capabilities.

These efforts are closely coordinated by NATO’s Maritime Command.

Allies are also increasing security around key installations.

And stepping up intelligence and intelligence sharing.

We will take further steps to strengthen our resilience and protect our critical infrastructure.

Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response.

We will be joined by EU High Representative Borrell.

Because NATO and the European Union face the same security challenges.

We have a difficult winter ahead.

So it is even more important that North America and Europe continue to stand united...NATO Secretary General: Now is the right time to be firm and to be clear that NATO is there to protect and defend all Allies. 

And this is a long time planned exercise, actually planned before the invasion of Ukraine. It's a routine exercise, and it's an exercise to ensure that our nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective. I visited this exercise a few years ago. We have been open about the exercise and I think it would send a very wrong signal if we suddenly now cancelled a routine, long time planned exercise because of the war in Ukraine. That would be absolutely the wrong signal to send. And we need to understand that NATO's firm, predictable behavior, our military strength, is the best way to prevent escalation. We are there to preserve peace, to prevent escalation and prevent any attack on NATO Allied countries.

So if we now created the grounds for any misunderstanding, miscalculation in Moscow about our willingness to protect and defend all Allies, we would increase the risk of escalation and that's the last thing we will do...

NATO Secretary General: We are constantly consulting among NATO Allies. We have already conducted three NATO Summits this year. We will convene a summit when needed, so we have the meetings we need, when we need them. And we are constantly assessing also the need to then convene yet another summit to ensure that we have consultations and the right messages from NATO at all levels. We will have a ministerial meeting this week, and that provides a good opportunity to send a clear message and then we'll make decisions on a potential summit when we think the right the time is right.

Then on the nature of the war. Well, this is an illegal invasion of another country. It is a clear violation of international law. Russia invaded a sovereign independent nation, violated its territorial integrity and sovereignty. That actually didn't start in 2022 or in February of this year. It started in 2014. But of course they scaled up their aggressive actions against Ukraine in February, and they have violated international law in a blatant way. And we have also seen horrendous and horrific attacks against civilians, we have seen the reports from Bucha, from many other places in Ukraine. And the important thing now is that all facts are made available, that we have thorough investigations, NATO Allies support the ongoing investigations, and that those responsible are held accountable for these atrocities...

NATO Secretary General: NATO is prepared for any threat, any attack, against any NATO Ally. And that's the reason why we have NATO, to be able to deter also nuclear threats. And this was important before the invasion of Ukraine, it has become even more important after. Not least in light of the nuclear rhetoric from President Putin and from Russia. This nuclear rhetoric, or veiled threats, are dangerous and reckless. Russia knows that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. And we also conveyed clearly to Russia that they will have severe consequences if they use nuclear weapons in any way, including low yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Then, by ensuring that we have credible deterrence and defence, we are helping to reduce the risk of escalation.

And therefore it is important that since 2014, we have implemented the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War. So we were prepared when Russia invaded Ukraine in February. And since then, we have further stepped up, increased our presence in the eastern part of the Alliance. We activated our defence plans the morning of the invasion, and we made decisions in Madrid in June to further strengthen our collective defence.

The purpose of this is to prevent war, preserve peace, and including prevent any use of nuclear weapons.

12 Oct. 2022 - 13 Oct. 2022 - Meeting of NATO Ministers of Defence, NATO HQ, Brussels, Belgium

Short remarks by the NATO Secretary General and the US Secretary of Defense

3:13 Trans-Atlantic Security

Meeting of the NATO Nuclear Planning Group in Defence Ministers session

No public opening remarks, no media coverage

(previous statement)

Bilateral meeting with the Minister of Defence of Norway

No public opening remarks, no media coverage

14 Oct 2022 - Putin warns of ‘global catastrophe’ if Nato troops clash with Russian forces
The Russian leader also claims he does not regret the invasion of Ukraine

He said a total of 222,000 reservists would be called-up, down from the 300,000 figure initially quoted by the defence ministry when the order was announced last month.

In total, 33,000 of them are already in military units and 16,000 are involved in combat, Mr Putin said.

Asked about the war expanding to become a direct clash between Russian and Nato troops, Putin said: “The introduction of troops into a direct confrontation with the Russian army is a very dangerous step that could lead to a global catastrophe.”

He added: “I hope that those who speak of this have enough sense not to take such steps.

There have been growing fears that the war could escalate and claims it could even become a nuclear conflict.

Putin also claimed that there was “no need” for further “massive strikes” on Ukraine, due to the fact that the majority of so-called designated targets had been hit.

 15 Oct 2022 - Kerch Bridge, Nord Stream the handiwork of top-tier saboteurs

Big blast attacks required highly sophisticated technology and ultra-skilled secret operators that only a few nations possess

It is increasingly clear that the destruction of part of the Kerch-Crimea bridge and the destruction of three strands of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines required highly sophisticated technology and the skill of secret operators.

According to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) investigation, the truck bomb that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Crimea bridge “was concealed in 22 pallets of plastic film rolls weighing a total of 22,770 kilos.”

The investigative journalism site Greyzone said on October 10 that the British Secret Service (MI-6) drew up a plan last April to blow up the Kerch Bridge and shared the plan with Ukraine.

15 Oct 2022 - Nato to test nuclear strike ability in UK training exercise
Steadfast Noon will see planes capable of carrying atomic bombs fly over Britain

Nato will test its ability to launch a nuclear strike in a training exercise over the UK, North Sea and Belgium next week, the alliance said on Friday.

The exercise will see up to 60 aircraft from air forces belonging to 14 countries take part. While no live weapons will be used, planes with the capability of carrying B61 bombs and US B52 bombers will be involved.

Of Nato's 30-strong membership, only the US, UK and France possess nuclear weapons, although France isn't part of the alliance's nuclear planning group. 

17 Oct 2022 - SEA MONSTER Putin’s city-killer sub Belgorod with Poseidon nuke drone seen just 270 miles from Nato border in chilling satellite pic

17 Oct 2022 - NORAD detects, tracks, identifies and intercepts Russian aircraft entering Air Defense Identification Zone, Alaskan NORAD Region

On 17 October, the Alaskan North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) Region detected, tracked, positively identified and intercepted two Russian Tu-95 Bear-H bombers entering and operating within the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

Two U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft intercepted the Russian aircraft which remained in international airspace and did not enter American or Canadian sovereign airspace.

The recent Russian activity in the North American ADIZ is not seen as a threat nor is the activity seen as provocative. 

 18 Oct 2022 - Defense Department Briefing video 

Wallace  00:19:31
NORAD 00:28:50

Defense Department Spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder briefed reporters at the Pentagon on Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. He said Secretary Austin met that morning with his British counterpart, Ben Wallace, to discuss the war and security assistance.

 18 Oct 2022 - What Happened In Washington Between The UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace And NSA Jake Sullivan?

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met today in Washington with the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, the White House confirmed.

Secretary Wallace flew out of the UK yesterday on short notice amid growing concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin may act on his threats to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said Wallace was meeting with the US officials for “the sort of conversations that [are] beyond belief really, the fact we are at a time when these sorts of conversations are necessary.”

President Joe Biden has warned recently that the world is closer to Armageddon than ever since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going,” said Biden.

20 Oct 2022 - Liz Truss resigns 


27 Oct 2022 - Vladimir Putin says Liz Truss was 'crazy' when she raised concerns about nuclear weapons

In a major speech in Moscow, the Russian president also criticised western leaders for playing a "bloody and dangerous" game in Ukraine and warned the era of western domination was over.

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Former mine clearance diver of the French Navy Philippe Chêne talks about Nordstream

Philippe Chêne - former mine clearance diver of the French Navy, now a consultant in underwater mine warfare and explosives 


29 Sept 2022 - Combat divers, underwater drones or robots: how to sabotage an underwater gas pipeline? (Google translated from FRA, 

    

This sabotage therefore bears the mark of a military attack, and again: “not all navies have the necessary skills ,” he explains. “ We can imagine that the Russian navy has them, like the American navy.” “Personally, I don’t know of any unit that trains for this kind of thing,” specifies the former French sailor. 

The explosive charge

The Norwegian Institute of Seismology estimated that the second detonation corresponded to the use of 700 kilos of TNT. “700 kilos of charge weight, that seems a lot to me ,” explains Philippe Chêne . “This is an evaluation based on the recording of seismographs which do not differentiate between the detonation wave of the charge and that of the trigger of the gas contained in the pipeline. The largest military loads are around 250-300 kilos.

A pocket submarine and combat divers?

70 meters deep, “this is a depth that is not easy to access for divers ,” notes the consultant.

“Some nations have midget submarines with combat swimmers.” These are small submarines with a crew of just a few men. They can be launched from a mother submarine to hit their target. "They can deposit loads at this depth. But combat divers do not escape the laws of underwater pressure. Beyond 50 m depth, dives become very complicated in terms of safety."

An underwater drone?

“ There are few nations that are capable of using underwater drones for such an operation. We can imagine that an underwater drone was loaded with explosives to explode along the pipe,” estimates Philippe Chêne . The drone can be released several tens of kilometers from its target to reach it autonomously.

An underwater robot?

This is the most likely hypothesis: an ROV (Remote Operated Vehicle), a remotely controlled vehicle. It is a technology widely used by the offshore industry.

"It's a remote-controlled device with a cable. We pilot it from the surface or a submarine. We bring it to the target. We can imagine that this robot deposited an explosive charge on the pipe with a system of chronometric or acoustic triggering. The charge explodes after a certain time, or after an acoustic signal emitted by the submarine."

The charges could even have been placed on the pipes several weeks in advance and triggered at the time chosen by the sponsor.

“A surface ship which would place loads on a pipeline would be detected in this area of ​​the Baltic. I am thinking more of the use of a submarine and an ROV which would have deposited the load”, concludes Philippe Chene. 

Mobile mines, magnetic torpedoes, trapped piston?

The military arsenal still has other submarine assets, but which seem more difficult to implement in this context.

Mobile mines: "They are placed in a container on the seabed. When they detect their target, they come out of their container and rush towards the target. This is not a suitable option in this case."

Magnetic torpedoes"They are designed to explode under the keel of a ship. They could detect the metal of the pipe. The difficulty in this case is to make this torpedo move close to the bottom. It is a full weapon water, no bottom.”

A trapped piston: During pipeline maintenance operations, a scraper piston is introduced inside the pipe to clean it. If it carries an explosive charge, it could destroy it. The piston moves in the pipe with the pressure of the flow. However, the two gas pipelines were at a standstill. The hypothesis does not hold. 


30 Sept 2022 -  Nord Stream: the favored sabotage thesis - JT RTBF

Philippe Chêne - former mine clearance diver of the French Navy, now a consultant in underwater mine warfare and explosives 


"Après les explosions et les fuites de gaz sur les gazoducs Nord Stream, la thèse d’un sabotage est privilégiée. Mais comment un tel sabotage est-il possible ? Les gazoducs endommagés sont situés à environ 70 mètres de profondeur en pleine mer Baltique. Autant dire que l’opération de sabotage de Nord Stream 1 et 2 s’avère plutôt complexe et technique. Cette opération nécessite donc de posséder le matériel et les compétences nécessaires afin de poser des charges explosives sur les énormes conduites sous-marines. Plongeurs, drones ou encore robot piloté à distance, plusieurs hypothèses sont envisagées. Des plongeurs de combat auraient pu faire exploser le gazoduc, mais la grande profondeur et le transport d’une grande quantité de charges explosives rendent l’opération peu plausible, estime Philippe Chêne, ancien plongeur démineur de la Marine française, aujourd’hui consultant en guerre des mines et explosifs sous-marins. Et pourquoi pas des drones sous-marins chargés en explosifs qui se seraient écrasés sur le gazoduc ? Peu probable, selon Philippe Chêne car « Il y a peu de nations qui sont capables d’utiliser les drones sous-marins pour une opération pareille ». Un robot piloté à distance est alors l’hypothèse la plus plausible, estime l’ancien plongeur démineur de la Marine française : « On peut imaginer que ce robot ait déposé une charge explosive sur le pipeline avec un système de déclenchement chronométrique ou acoustique. »
 

A cette heure, aucune de ces hypothèses, ou d’autres, ne sont officiellement établies. Une enquête devra déterminer les responsabilités dans ce sabotage. De leur côté, les services de sécurité russes ont déjà annoncé l’ouverture d’une enquête pour « acte de terrorisme international ». "

Google translated: 

After the explosions and gas leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, the theory of sabotage is favored. But how is such sabotage possible? The damaged gas pipelines are located at a depth of around 70 meters in the open Baltic Sea. Suffice to say that the sabotage operation of Nord Stream 1 and 2 turns out to be rather complex and technical. This operation therefore requires having the necessary equipment and skills to place explosive charges on the enormous underwater pipes. Divers, drones or even a remotely controlled robot, several hypotheses are considered. Combat divers could have detonated the gas pipeline, but the great depth and the transport of a large quantity of explosive charges make the operation implausible, believes Philippe Chêne, former mine clearance diver of the French Navy, now a consultant in underwater mine warfare and explosives.

And why not underwater drones loaded with explosives which would have crashed on the gas pipeline? Unlikely, according to Philippe Chêne because “There are few nations capable of using underwater drones for such an operation.”

 A remotely controlled robot is then the most plausible hypothesis, believes the former French Navy mine clearance diver: “We can imagine that this robot deposited an explosive charge on the pipeline with a chronometric or acoustic trigger system. » At this time, none of these hypotheses, or others, have been officially established. An investigation will have to determine responsibility for this sabotage. For their part, the Russian security services have already announced the opening of an investigation for “act of international terrorism”.