Sunday, March 26, 2023

023 - About the UK-USA "special relationship"

 PREFACE/ISSUE

Since past The Special Relationship between the USA and the UK was strong. During the 2022 there were no serious issues between those countries but then after Liz Truss UN speech suddenly the "special relationship" was put on hold. Why?



The UK and the USA have a long and special relationship 

but


Did USA learn that UK is planning to bomb Nordstream?
Did they pout it on hold, on ice because of some intel?

2021

2 Sept 2021 - UK defence secretary suggests US is no longer a superpower

Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, suggested the US could no longer be considered a superpower in an interview where he also contrasted his department’s handling of the Afghanistan crisis with that of the embattled Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Asked whether the exit from Afghanistan demonstrated the limits of British power on the world stage, Wallace started by saying, “It is obvious that Britain is not a superpower,” then appeared to switch his focus to the US.

But a superpower that is also not prepared to stick at something isn’t probably a superpower either. It is certainly not a global force, it’s just a big power,” the defence secretary added.

Former foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt warned on Thursday that a dangerous fault line had emerged in the US-UK special relationship, describing the withdrawal from Kabul as catastrophic and forced on the UK.

Biden has defended the withdrawal on the basis that the US must not be involved in nation-building, and their vital national interest ended when terrorists were defeated a decade ago.

[M: SIDE-COMMENT This is a 1st official confirmation for my #Mackinder #Roadblocks against Euro-Asian integration theory which is an antithesis to OBOR, described by me before 2015, has 8y validation. A chain of failed states on old SilkRoads - possible objectives of UK/UK is to create land choke-points of failed/weak states. I will write about it one day hopefully. Here is a short twitter post] 


2022

2 March 2022 - House of Commons library: Geopolitical implications of Nord Stream 2 

22 August 2022 - Germany and Russia have developed a strong energy partnership. The following graph highlights Germany’s gas imports from USSR/ Russia from 1970-2018.



Source: Research Gate

To conclude, the progress on Nord Stream 2 pipeline, pegged as mutually beneficial for Germany and Russia, is now dependent upon the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The current geopolitical crisis has created a situation in which both Germany and Russia face huge socio-economic costs due to halt of the pipeline. However, the delay in the implementation of the project has pushed both Germany and Russia to diversify and seek new energy markets globally.


I. Short history about the "UK-USA special relationship"

The UK and US have a long and special relationship based on shared ideals of open government, free speech and open markets.  We work together on political affairs, including trade, finance, technology, education, arts and sciences. Our relationship is reinforced by close linguistic, historical and cultural ties. The UK and US partner to promote democracy, global security and peace keeping.

The United States has no closer Ally than the United Kingdom. Following the end of the American Revolution in 1783, the United Kingdom officially recognized American independence, and in 1785 our two countries established diplomatic relations.


II. The Boris Johnson´s government and "Special Relationship" status 
in 2022 until his resignation in summer

June 2022 - The C.I.A. had warned European governments of potential attacks on pipelines.

The warning was not specific, the officials said, and they declined to say whether Russia was identified as a possible attacker.

The C.I.A. issued a vague warning in June to a number of European nations, including Germany, that the two Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia could be targeted in forthcoming attacks, three senior officials familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.

The German publication Der Spiegel was the first to report that the U.S. had provided what intelligence officials call strategic warning” of a possible attack — a warning that came with no specifics about the likely time or place or manner of a potential strike.  
 

7 July 2022 - After Johnson resigns, Biden says US-UK 'special relationship' remains 'strong'

18 July 2022 - US-UK special relationship deepens in space

28 July 2022 - UK-US ‘special relationship’ remains strong under Biden, new ambassador says

2 Sept 2021 - UK defence secretary suggests US is no longer a superpower

Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, suggested the US could no longer be considered a superpower in an interview where he also contrasted his department’s handling of the Afghanistan crisis with that of the embattled Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Asked whether the exit from Afghanistan demonstrated the limits of British power on the world stage, Wallace started by saying, “It is obvious that Britain is not a superpower,” then appeared to switch his focus to the US. “But a superpower that is also not prepared to stick at something isn’t probably a superpower either. It is certainly not a global force, it’s just a big power,” the defence secretary added.

Former foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt warned on Thursday that a dangerous fault line had emerged in the US-UK special relationship, describing the withdrawal from Kabul as catastrophic and forced on the UK.

Biden has defended the withdrawal on the basis that the US must not be involved in nation-building, and their vital national interest ended when terrorists were defeated a decade ago.

 

III. The Truss´s government and "Special Relationship" status in September 2022 still holding

5 Sept 2022 - 'I will deliver on the energy crisis': Liz Truss confirmed as new Prime Minister

Incoming Prime Minister promises to 'govern as a Conservative', as she pledges to tackle people's soaring bills and long term energy supply concerns

6 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss accepts invite to visit Ukraine in first call with foreign leader as PM

Ms Truss held the call with Mr Zelensky within hours of becoming Prime Minister.

It comes after US President Joe Biden congratulated Ms Truss on becoming Prime Minister and vowed to deepen the “special relationship” between the US and the UK.

6 Sept 2022 - Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call with Prime Minister Liz Truss of the United Kingdom

President Joseph R. Biden Jr. spoke today with Prime Minister Liz Truss of the United Kingdom to offer his congratulations. The leaders reaffirmed the special relationship between our countries and expressed their readiness to further deepen those ties.  President Biden and Prime Minister Truss discussed the importance of continued close cooperation on global challenges, including supporting Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression, addressing the challenges posed by China, preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon, and securing sustainable and affordable energy resources.

6 Sept 2022 - What does Liz Truss mean for Joe Biden and Britain’s ‘special relationship’ with US?

7 Sept 2022 - UK: Truss assembles cabinet of class war at home and escalated war against Russia

The first act of new British Prime Minister Liz Truss on entering Downing Street was to call US President Joe Biden and reaffirm Britain’s backing of NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine against Russia.

Biden tweeted in response, “I look forward to deepening the special relationship between our countries and working in close cooperation on global challenges, including continued support for Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression.”

The only continuation in personnel from Boris Johnson’s cabinet were Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Armed Forced Minister James Heappey. Both have been instrumental in prosecuting war against Russia. 

8 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss may signal a reset of Britain’s special relationship with the US
Liz Truss broke with recent convention: she called (on 6th of September) first Ukraine’s frontline leader Volodymyr Zelensky rather than the US President.

 American officials have their eyebrows raised. British diplomats say Truss is “more American than the Americans” — a leader who wants a more aggressive Washington everywhere. White House staffers, however, think she wants more of an America that does not actually exist. That she doesn’t understand that Biden is the President who withdrew from Afghanistan and never wanted confrontation with Russia

9 Sept 2022 - Britain’s Liz Truss will keep the US-UK ‘Special Relationship’ strong 

13 Sept 2022 - King Charles and his 'special relationship' with the United States

14 Sept 2022 - Joe Biden and UK’s Liz Truss agree on continued support for Ukraine, tackling energy crisis

17 Sept 2022 - U.S.-U.K. relations enter new chapter as prime minister and king settle in

Biden and Truss to meet not at queen’s funeral but at U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday

18 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss’s first big diplomatic meeting with Biden postponed

Meeting rearranged for Wednesday in New York as Bidens travel to UK for Queen’s funeral

19 Sept 2022 - Queen´s funeral

19 Sept 2022Liz Truss: Soaring energy prices are a “price worth paying”

The Prime Minister highlighted the role of the ‘energy price guarantee’ scheme as pressure from struggling businesses mount

Hours after the end of the period of national mourning, Liz Truss said that high energy bills are a “price worth paying” to boost the UK’s energy security.

Liz Truss told reporters during her trip to the United Nations general assembly in New York: “The point I am making is that it’s a price worth paying for Britain because our long-term security is paramount.


20-21/09
--- something happens here ---


IV. Liz Truss suddenly wants to reset the special relationship

20 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss lands in US to reset ‘special relationship’ on first foreign trip as PM

Liz Truss has arrived in the US where she will hold talks with Joe Biden, the US president, on her first foreign trip as UK prime minister.

Ahead of the trip, Truss said: “Ukraine’s victories in recent weeks have been inspirational. Time and time again these brave people have defied the doubters and showed what they can do when given the military, economic and political support they need.

“My message to the people of Ukraine is this: the UK will continue to be right behind you every step of the way. Your security is our security.” 

20 Sept 2021 - Secretary Antony J. Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss Before Their Meeting

Blinken:
I’m particularly pleased that we’re also meeting just when we’ve made the announcement on the lifting of travel restrictions, which is something we’ve been talking about for some time.  Very pleased that Elizabeth (inaudible) with us and also to get going on a lot of work that we have to do together.  So welcome.  So very good to be with you.

Truss: 
And I’m delighted to be meeting you to talk about how we deepen further our very important partnership in areas, of course, like the economy, but also our mutual security, so fantastic to be here.

20 Sept 2022 - Prime Minister announces the UK will meet or exceed the amount of military aid spent on Ukraine in 2022 next year.

 ...The Prime Minister said:

By turning off the taps of Nord Stream gas pipeline, Putin has consigned millions of people in Europe to a colder and more difficult winter.

Too many lives – in Ukraine, in Europe and around the world – are being manipulated by a dependence on Russian energy. We need to work together to end this once and for all

20 Sept 2022Liz Truss admits UK trade deal with US is not on the agenda

20 Sept 2022 - Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly

20 Sept 2022 - NATO Secretary General visits the United States
19 Sep. 2022 - 23 Sep. 2022

[M: Note that on Friday 23rd a meeting with EU Leyen is announced for Monday 26th when the bombing happened] 


21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)

01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."

06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."

[M What kid of "cutting off" is this? Of UK cutting itself off, which has been done already or cutting EU off the RU gas? Note that in September 2021 the UK Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Kwasi Kwarteng told a parliamentary committee:

"We are not exposed to Russian supply as many of our EU counterparts are] 
 
"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."

[M What kid of talk is this? That UK is ready to neuter any RU retaliation move?]

"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.

We must do this together."

 [M ?, looks to me as an appeal to people UK may have informed beforehand, IF UK is the culprit.]

We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.

 [M ? The JEF is made to be deployed in short time on an exercise.] 

08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.
The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action. 
The response has been built on partnerships and alliances and also on being prepared to use new instruments – unprecedented sanctions, diplomatic action, and rapid military support. 
There has been a strength of collective purpose – we have met many times, spoken many times on the phone, we have made things happen.
Now we must use these instruments in a more systematic way to push back on the economic aggression of authoritarian regimes.
The G7 and our like-minded partners should act as an economic NATO, collectively defending our prosperity.

If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.

12:00 min "In all these areas, on all of the fronts, the time to act is now. This is a decisive moment in our history, in the history of this organization and in the history of freedom...

The story of 2022 could have been that of an authoritarian state rolling its tanks over the border of a peaceful neighbour and subjugating its people.

Instead, it is the story of freedom fighting back.

In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through.

But this cannot be a one-off.

This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values."

Britain’s commitment to this is total.

We will be a dynamic, reliable and trustworthy partner. 

[M: Whoever signed the STATE ACTOR mission had to have consistent narrative and real constant objections against it. The UK has been for years most vocal and their PM was even speaking at UN assembly against pipelines and RU carbohydrates just a 5 days before the attack on those pipelines.] 

21 Sept 2022 - PM meeting with President Joe Biden: 21 September 2022

The Prime Minister met US President Joe Biden at the UN General Assembly in New York today.

The leaders stressed the need to end over-reliance on authoritarian states in terms of our energy, technology and manufacturing supply chains.

They agreed to redouble bilateral efforts to reduce energy dependence on Russia and to increase the amount of renewable and other forms of energy flowing from democratic states.  

21 Sept 2022 - Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Liz Truss of the United Kingdom Before Bilateral Meeting 


V. Sudden reversal, the "Special Relationship" status is on hold 

22 Sept 2022 - US considers suspending ‘special relationship’ label after Liz Truss visit

“We'll shut it down until we can figure out what's going on.”

22 Sept 2022 - Vladimir Putin is desperately trying to justify a 'catastrophic' failure in Ukraine, says Liz Truss
The Prime Minister told fellow world leaders that the UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030, repeating a promise she made when she campaigned to become Tory leader.
She said: “In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through. But this must not be a one-off.  “This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values.”

23 Sept 2022 - Truss axes national security council, sparking ‘talking-shop’ concerns

Liz Truss has scrapped the national security council and merged it with two Boris Johnson-era foreign policy committees in a structure that Labour warned risked diluting the government’s security focus.

[M: Elaborating on this topic in a new post here

23 Sept 2022 - <News about 21-09-2022 Liz Truss - Biden meeting>

Is the 'special relationship' all over? Joe Biden did not use the phrase during first meeting with Liz Truss, sparking rumour it is being 'retired'

The phrase has long stood for the enduring bond between the UK and US.

But Liz Truss’s first meeting with Joe Biden in Washington suggested the term ‘special relationship’ may be phased out as she launched her new foreign policy ethos. 

The President did not utter the words, first used by Winston Churchill, during bilateral talks, but instead told her: ‘You’re our closest ally in the world.’ 

...Last night the White House denied the term had been ‘retired’ but offered to suspend its use, with an official saying: ‘We’ll shut it down until we can figure out what’s going on.’ 

However, the exchange was in sharp contrast to when Miss Truss entered No 10 earlier this month.

At the time, Mr Biden said he looked forward to ‘deepening the special relationship’ between the two nations.

 


Liz Truss’s first meeting with Joe Biden in Washington suggested the term ‘special relationship’ may be phased out. The two leaders held a bilateral meeting during the PM's visit to the US to attend 77th UN General Assembly

 video

Biden
0:46 sec "...There is no wish we you like to think of a GLOBAL CONSEQUENCE that the United States and United Kingdom are not working in cooperation and I expect that we would be able to do that ... we spoke also about energy..." 
Truss, 3:00: "...we want to work more closely with US, especially in energy security on our economic security but also on reaching out to fellow democracies around the world to make sure that democracies prevail and we protect the freedom and future of our citizens...

[M: What is the substance of reaching out what UK can not do itself?] 

23 Sept 2022 - Truss axes national security council, sparking ‘talking-shop’ concerns

Liz Truss has scrapped the national security council and merged it with two Boris Johnson-era foreign policy committees in a structure that Labour warned risked diluting the government’s security focus.

 [M: A post dedicated to this change is here

 

VI. Few possibilities (speculation)

UK said to USA, EU, NATO  

USA confronted UK and learned about it, shared info with EU  

23 Sept 2022 - Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Meeting with Frans Timmermans, Executive Vice President of the European Commission

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met today in Washington with Executive Vice President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans. They discussed our shared efforts to address the global climate crisis, including the recent U.S. passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and preparations for COP-27 in Egypt. They also discussed transatlantic cooperation to address Russia’s weaponization of energy and the need to ensure our ongoing efforts to meet acute near-term energy needs are matched by a redoubled commitment to accelerating the clean energy transition and reducing Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels.

23 Sept 2022 - On Monday 26 September 2022, the NATO Secretary

 ...General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will meet with the President of the European Commission, Ms. Ursula von der Leyen, at the Berlaymont building of the European Commission. There will be no media opportunity.

[M: Assuming the timing, assuming Jens Stoltenberg has learned about the planned sabotage. It is his responsibility to inform the future victim - the EU. Assuming this was the case, who has informed him? The UK through NATO or USA through official channels? Based on my research it was UK and so it makes him potentially complicit in covering up the affair being active participant of the plot - thus he is My suspect.  

25 Sept 2022 - HMS Queen Elizabeth anchors in New York as Truss plans to strengthen UK-US bond

The Royal Navy’s flagship dropped anchor within sight of the Statue of Liberty in New York Harbour on Sunday

26 Sept 2022 - Nordstream pipelines are attacked.

26 Sept 2022 - The USA has communicated with Russia through
                        Red Line de-escalation Phone

"US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday night that the US had “communicated directly, privately to the Russians at very high levels” how it would respond if Vladimir Putin carried out the nuclear strike threat he made during an address last week"

26 Sept 2022 - NSA Jake Sullivan says the "red phone" is working again and the White House can speak with the Kremlin at "senior levels."

"That has happened frequently over the course of the past few months. It has happened even in the last few days."


VI. The Afterwards in the UK and USA domain

28 Sept 2022 - Where is Liz Truss? Our prime minister has gone missing

30 Sept 2022 - US resident Joe Biden has said damage to Nord Stream 
                        was a deliberate act of sabotage.

[M: A separate post about who said and framed it as a "sabotage" is here]

5 Oct 2022 - US considering offering to analyse underwater audio recordings to aid Nord Stream pipeline sabotage investigations

The US Navy’s processing of the sonar signatures – the term for the unique underwater sounds – provided by Sweden and Denmark could boost the investigations by providing a more detailed picture of what was in the area at the time of the pipeline explosions and what caused them, sources said... 

Each type of underwater machinery like submarines, torpedoes and vessel engines makes a unique sound that is called a “sonar signature,” and the US has an extensive library of these sounds.

17 Oct 2022 - Why wasn't Liz Truss in Parliament? Penny Mourdant denies PM was 'cowering under her desk' as she was missing from urgent question 

18 October 2022 - Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Meeting with United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met today with Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace of the United Kingdom. They exchanged views on shared national security interests, including Ukraine. They underscored their commitment to continue providing Ukraine with security assistance as it defends itself against Russian aggression.

18 October 2022 - President Biden to Announce New Actions to Strength en U.S. Energy Security, Encourage Production, and Bring Down Costs

President Biden is directing his Administration to take additional action to strengthen energy security, address the supply crunch, and lower costs.

First, the Department of Energy (DOE) is issuing a Notice of Sale tomorrow morning for 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to be delivered in December.

 [M: Basically USA is mimicking steps UK has done in preparations to increased energy prices.]

19 Oct 2022 - Special Relationship goes silent

Ben Wallace, the U.K. defense secretary, made a secretive trip to Washington on Tuesday, to discuss with the Biden administration Ukrainian matters that his deputy described as “beyond belief.”

19 October 2022 - Ukraine war: Mysterious defence secretary trip to Washington amid fears of Russian escalation

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is on a hastily-arranged visit to Washington to talk with his counterpart and White House officials about "shared security concerns" including Ukraine and Russia, a source and an official said.

The secretive, last-minute nature of the trip and a comment by a second defence minister, James Heappey - who said the conversations that Mr Wallace would be having on Tuesday were "beyond belief" - suggested particularly sensitive and serious issues would be discussed.
However, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly this morning sought to play down the significance of the trip.

 "He will be visiting his counterpart at the Pentagon and senior figures at the White House." 

"My boss, Ben Wallace, is in Washington this morning having the sort of conversations that… beyond belief really the fact we are a time when these sort of conversations are necessary." 

The defence secretary had been due to appear before a committee of MPs in London to discuss the UK, US and NATO on Tuesday but had to cancel. 

23 October 2022 - Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Phone Call With U.K. Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace

“Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III called UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace Oct. 23 to reaffirm the U.S.-UK defense relationship and the importance of transatlantic cooperation. Their conversation today was a continuation of their discussion at the Pentagon last week, which covered a wide range of shared defense and security priorities, including Ukraine.”

VII. About UK special boat services unit

30 Oct 2022 - Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream, London denies involvement


The Russian ministry said that “British specialists” from the same unit directed Ukrainian drone attacks on ships of Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea earlier on Saturday that it said were largely repelled by Russian forces, with minor damage to a Russian minesweeper.

According to available information, representatives of this unit of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year – blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines,” the ministry said.

3 Nov 2022 - UK’s Defence Committee refused access to UK Special Forces in heated debate with Defence Minister.

In a British Parliamentary Deference Select Committee on the 2nd November, 2022, the UK Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace, has been challenged for his failure to permit members of the Defence Select Committee access to UK Special Forces.

In a heated exchanged, the Committee chair, Tobias Ellwood MP said that the UK Special Forces were not the best in the world ‘about scrutiny’, and that the Special Forces – including units such as the Special Air Service (SAS) and Special Boat Services (SBS) – were “not above scrutiny.”

When asked if the Ministry of Defence could facilitate a visit to Hereford, home of the SAS, the Deference Minister said “no” and went on to argue that “this committee does not have oversight of Special Forces and its operations.”

The chair of the Defence Committee disagreed, saying: “I’m sorry, we have oversight of the Armed Forces in the UK Defence.”

Mr Wallace then said the Special Forces were very busy in operational work.

...Earlier this year, Action on Armed Violence raised concerns about a lack of parliamentary oversight of the UK’s Special Forces...

 

NOTE about USA and Nordstream AB and Nordstream 2 AB:

Note that the USA had not issues with Nordstream 1 but sanctions were against Nordstream 2 while the UK was much against both projects - see another post.

Note that USA and Germany had a deal about Nordstream 2 that it will not go online.

26 May 2022 -  The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia

Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise.

[M: The deal was kept from both sides - see post about it here. There was no need to blow ALL pipelines anymore. USA had reached its objectives with the "political deal".] 

  

NOTE about USA navy leaving the Baltic Sea before the sabotage happens  

24 Sept 2022Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group transits Danish Strait (left through DK straights on 22nd as stated here). For about 7 days helicopters from this ship with Anti Submarine capabilities were searching the area for unidentified reason - post here.

[M: There something happens on 20/09 and US boats exit Baltic Sea  - see post about it here.] 


US, UK and NATO 

7 March 2023 - Special Relationships? US, UK and NATO 

This is a House of Commons Committee report, with recommendations to government. The Government has two months to respond.

Sixth Report of Session 2022–23


CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

It is possible that UK said to USA about their irreversible plan to attack Nordstream or that the USA has learned about it?


PREDICTIONS:

The USA x UK relationships to worsen in time, certain distance in diplomacy in case the Nordstream case blow up in diplomatic face.

 The NATO and Trans-Atlantic alliance will experience "issues" in coordination and next US president may want to withdraw from NATO talks.

 

UPDATES:

2 April 2023 - Joe Biden 'Not Expected' to Attend King Charles' Coronation, Plans Are 'Not Locked and Loaded'

 


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I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

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Monday, March 20, 2023

022 - Nordstream emergency response plan and yearly check-ups

PREFACE/ISSUE

The purpose of this post is to hint to the issue of planting explosives in June 2022 compared to the more probable time of the week just before the 26/09 when two explosions were recorded. 

The NATO Baltops exercise exercise ended earlier than the yearly scheduled (internal and external) check-up which could possibly expose planted devices.

The post tries to look info procedures and processes involved in these yearly check-ups and whether they could reveal planted explosives.


I. The timing is everything: Baltops vs Yearly maintenance

05 June - 17 June 2022 NATO BALTOPS exercise 

It takes about 10 days to run the pigging tool through the pipeline.
It is inconceivable and risky that explosions would be planted before that date.

There is a risk that the internal and external checks would reveal planted charges.

 This hints to the window of opportunity for planting explosives between the 21 July 2022 and 26th of September 2022. 

Note that the shorter the time before the event the smaller the chance of premature exposure. 

[M: The timing kind of disqualifies BALTOPS for being the timeframe when explosives were planted - post here]

II. Emergency Response strategy and procedures

Nord Stream has established an Emergency Response Plan to deal with potential incidents or accidents, including oil spills, gas leaks, and other types of emergencies. They have also implemented safety systems and procedures to prevent and respond to potential incidents. 

III. Maintenance and the gold standard of certification

Expected lifespan 

Pipeline repairs are not expected to be necessary during Nord Stream’s minimum operational lifespan of 50 years

Probability of pipeline failure 

The probability of pipeline failure or leakage is as low as one damage event every 100,000 years. 

 Certification 

Nord Stream is certified to DNV’s F101 offshore pipeline standard.

Having its operation certified yearly to the F101 DNV offshore pipeline standard, Nord Stream is committed to maintaining an ever-improving level of pipeline integrity management.

Development 

Pre-commissioning report 


IV. Nordstream sustainability reports

These reports provide an overview of Nord Stream's sustainability strategy, objectives, and performance indicators, as well as a discussion of key sustainability challenges and opportunities.

Specifically, the reports cover the following areas:
  • Environmental Performance: Nord Stream's efforts to minimize its environmental impact, including measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect biodiversity, and manage waste and water use. 
  • Social Responsibility: Nord Stream's commitment to the safety and well-being of its employees, as well as its engagement with local communities and stakeholders. 
  • Governance and Ethics: Nord Stream's governance structure, including its compliance with laws and regulations, and its commitment to ethical business practices.
  • Economic Performance: Nord Stream's contribution to the economy, including its investment in local infrastructure and job creation.

In this post I tested ChatGPT for accessing information - mixed results.


V. Pipeline Integrity Management system (PIMS)

Pipeline Integrity Management System (PIMS) reports cover the measures and activities taken to ensure the safe and reliable operation of oil and gas pipelines. These reports typically include detailed information on the condition of pipelines, the results of inspections and maintenance activities, and any corrective actions taken to address identified risks or issues.

Specifically, PIMS reports may cover the following areas:
  • Pipeline Design and Construction: This includes information on the materials, specifications, and construction methods used to build the pipeline.
  • Pipeline Operation and Maintenance: This covers the day-to-day operation of the pipeline, including monitoring, maintenance, and repair activities.
  • Risk Assessment: This includes the identification and assessment of potential risks to pipeline integrity, such as corrosion, mechanical damage, and third-party interference.
  • Inspection and Testing: This covers the methods and frequency of inspections and testing used to monitor the condition of the pipeline and identify any issues.
  • Emergency Response and Preparedness: This includes information on emergency response plans, procedures, and training to ensure that any incidents are managed effectively.

Overall, PIMS reports provide a comprehensive overview of the measures taken to ensure the safe and reliable operation of oil and gas pipelines, and demonstrate the company's commitment to pipeline safety and environmental protection.




VI. Policies and preparedness for different crisis scenarios

Nordstream has comprehensive failure scenarios contingency plans


Which documents describe that?


Preparedness for the terrorist act scenario



Nordstream has in place comprehensive measures against
the terrorist act scenario




VII: The active and passive protection of Nordstream pipelines

Active and passive protection of Nordstream pipelines


The system of underwater sensors 

[M: Note that Denmark could demand that NS will not put
its detection sensors on its section which is in DK Territorial waters
This could be a vulnerability which was potentially exploited.
Note for example the Russian incursion near Bornholm in June 2022]

The security threat from submarines, mini-submarines and drones


[M: Note Russian intrusion into Danish territorial waters and airspace.]


Systems and sensors for monitoring against submarines and vessels


VIII. Were Russians monitoring its assets in Danish Territorial waters? Did active/passive protection triggered these events?

1 May 2022 - Denmark, Sweden summon Russian ambassadors over spy plane flight 

Authorities from both Denmark and Sweden reported that the Russian plane entered Danish airspace on Friday evening east of the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm then entered Swedish airspace.
 
17 June 2022 - Russian warship violated Danish territorial waters in Baltic, Danish military says

16 June2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned Following Violation of Danish Airspace: “Inacceptable breach”

The summons is a reaction to Russia’s violation of Danish airspace on 11 June between 11:08 a.m. and 11:42 a.m., during which time two Russian SU-30 fighter planes were observed over Danish airspace near Christiansø Island and Bornholm Island.

1 Sept 2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned To Denmark After Alleged Airspace Violation

 

IX. Yearly scheduled maintenance check-ups of Nordstream

Updates to Pipeline integrity management system


Regular yearly check-ups


Overview of maintenance and inspection activities


Every year internal and external inspections are conducted


Inline Inspections (ILI) - aka "smart pigs"


ILI inspections are critical part of pipeline maintenance
and safety management typically required by regulatory agencies


Details of the internal  (ILI) external (ROV) checks

Example of 2017 Comprehensive assessment 
(unfortunately the file is no more accessible)


SErvice providers for internal checks (ILI) aka "pigging"


About NDT Global services


Years NDT Global serviced Nordstream


About PII Pipeline Solutions services


Years PII Pipeline Solutions serviced Nordstream


About Rosen Group services


Years T.D. Viliamson provided services to Nordstream


2021: Baker Hughes Inspection Technologies, LLC



X. Timing of yearly scheduled checkups and duration

June 2011: In-line inspection of the first pipeline was conducted.
June 2012: In-line inspection of the second pipeline was conducted.
July 2013: In-line inspection of the first pipeline was conducted.
June 2014: In-line inspection of the second pipeline was conducted.
August 2015: In-line inspection of the first pipeline was conducted.
August 2016: In-line inspection of the second pipeline was conducted.
October 2017: In-line inspection of both pipelines was conducted.
October 2018: In-line inspection of both pipelines was conducted.
October 2019: In-line inspection of both pipelines was conducted.
October 2020: In-line inspection of both pipelines was conducted.
October 2021: In-line inspection of both pipelines was conducted.

 Pipeline 2: 

2011: ROSEN Swiss AG
2012: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2013: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2015: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2017: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2018: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2019: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2020: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2021: Baker Hughes Inspection Technologies, LLC

 Pipeline 2:

2012: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2014: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2016: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2017: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2018: PII Pipeline Solutions
2019: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG
2020: NDT Global GmbH & Co. KG 

[M: Note that the data is incomplete and/or there could be errors in reading those reports. I have tested for this post usage of ChatGPT, mixed results.] 


XII. The 2022 maintenance work

Data could he found here

It is unclear which company has conducted the maintenance work.
The data is published often with 1y delay aka in 2023.


XIII. There is an issue with repairs and sanction - Perfect crime?

"In the unlikely event that repairs are required, Nord Stream has developed an Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS), is a member of the Equinor Pipeline Repair Pool (which grants access to the equipment needed for hyperbaric welding), and has a warehouse filled with replacement pipes. The company is as prepared as it can be." states the official web page

Norway’s Pipeline Repair and Subsea Intervention (PRSI) Pool.

Formed in 1987 by Statoil and Norske Hydro, as a non-profit organization, following a request by Norwegian authorities that a repair system should be available, it’s now managed by Equinor.

It has 20 operator members with nearly 20,000 km of offshore pipeline.

2 Feb 2022 - Equinor: sanctions prevented survey of damaged Nord Stream pipeline


[M: More about sanctions here, more about insurance policies here]

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Important note: 
I experimented with ChatGPT in creating this post
later I found out is is not as reliable. I entered data from similar pipeline projects, links to official posts and other relevant related sources. The data should be crosschecked with Nordstream AG.
I use predominately other official sources like company data or news from respected agencies. This was exception due to lack of data. Therefore screenshots may not be as reliable.

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