- Merkel´s deal reaffirmed by Scholz
- Biden´s statement that Nordstream 2 AG will be stopped
- Scholz reaffirmed the deal about Nordstream 2 AG
- Baltops vs Yearly Maintenance
- Baltops
- Scandinavian report
- The USA warns Nordstream shareholders
- Russia protects its pipelines
- Kaersarge group leaves and later returns to Baltic Sea
- Nordstream 2 AG wins two important court cases
- Kaersarge Group exercises with Sweden and catches a submarine
- German Northern Shores naval exercise
- Swedish and Danish Navies find a submarine
- Russia is rushing to the place
- Truss UN announcement
- The US-UK meetings and warnings to EUropeans
- Kaersarge leaves Baltic Sea
- Protests in Lubin on 25-09-2022
25 Aug 2016 - Biden warns EU against Russian gas dependency
US Vice President Joe Biden warned European countries against becoming too dependent on Russian oil and gas, saying it would be "bad" for Europe.
[M: Biden and US government message was very consistent from early on, several examples of statements and warnings against over-dependency on Russian energy. He was never against stopping all RU exports to EU.]
6 June 2021 - Exclusive: Zelensky "surprised" and "disappointed" by Biden pipeline move
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he learned through the press — not any direct heads-up — that President Biden had decided to stop trying to block a Russian pipeline that Ukraine sees as a dire national security threat.
Driving the news: Zelensky used an hourlong Zoom interview with Axios on Friday to beseech Biden to meet with him face to face before a June 16 summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin — offering to join him "at any moment and at any spot on the planet."
The embattled leader spoke of Putin's psychological pressure campaign; his own anger-turned-disappointment at the U.S.; and his hope that Biden, whom he compares to basketball great Michael Jordan, can still outmaneuver Russia and rescue Ukraine.
[M: A must read article describing the US - GER - UA views]
23 June 2021 - Blinken Warns That Nord Stream 2 Could Be 'Coercivie Tool' Against Europe
Blinken said he and Maas agreed that concrete steps are needed to "ensure that Russia cannot use energy as a coercive tool directed at Ukraine or anyone else in Europe."
The United States continues to believe that the pipeline is "ultimately a Russian geopolitical project that threatens European energy security and potentially undermines the security of Ukraine and other countries in the region," Blinken said at a news conference after meeting Maas.
[M: Note that always the topic is NS2, not whole lot of Russian piped gas.]
July 2021 - European Parliament: The Nord Stream 2 pipeline - Economic, environmental and geopolitical issues
US sanctions attempt to halt the pipeline
[M: This paper is a must read]
13 July 2021 - Merkel reassures Ukraine on Nord Stream 2 ahead of talks with U.S. President Biden
Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel has reassured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Germany would do everything to ensure Ukraine remains a gas transit state even after the completion of the contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline. She will travel to Washington, D.C., this week to find a “common position” on the project in talks with President Joe Biden, said the chancellor. The pipeline is 98 percent complete and scheduled to start operation this year, Nord Stream 2 AG CEO Matthias Warnig told Handelsblatt.
“We will do everything we can to make it very clear that Nord Stream 2 is not a substitute for the promised transit deliveries through Ukraine,” said Merkel alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Berlin.
In an attempt to revive the transatlantic relationship and show goodwill, the U.S. has recently decided not to impose sanctions against the German company behind the gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2 AG, and its CEO Matthias Warnig. Merkel and Biden also briefly talked about the project on the sidelines of the G7 summit in the UK. However, there is bi-partisan opposition in the U.S. Congress, which could hinder a deal between the two countries.
21 July 2021 - Joint Statement of the United States and Germany on Support for Ukraine, European Energy Security, and our Climate Goals
We support the energy security of Ukraine and Central and Eastern Europe, including the key principles enshrined in the EU’s Third Energy Package of diversity and security of supply. Germany underscores that it will abide by both the letter and the spirit of the Third Energy Package with respect to Nord Stream 2 under German jurisdiction to ensure unbundling and third-party access. This includes an assessment of any risks posed by certification of the project operator to the security of energy supply of the EU.
22 July 2021 - Ukraine gets compensation in exchange for US-Germany deal on Nord Stream 2
Following the agreement between Germany and the US over the contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Ukraine may just become a major hydrogen exporter.
22 July 2021 - Joint Statement of the US and Germany on Support for Ukraine, European Energy Security, and our Climate Goals
..., to ensure the United States and the EU remain prepared, including with appropriate tools and mechanisms, to respond together to Russian aggression and malign activities, including Russian efforts to use energy as a weapon. Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive acts against Ukraine, Germany will take action at the national level and press for effective measures at the European level, including sanctions, to limit Russian export capabilities to Europe in the energy sector, including gas, and/or in other economically relevant sectors. This commitment is designed to ensure that Russia will not misuse any pipeline, including Nord Stream 2, to achieve aggressive political ends by using energy as a weapon.
We support the energy security of Ukraine and Central and Eastern Europe, including the key principles enshrined in the EU’s Third Energy Package of diversity and security of supply. Germany underscores that it will abide by both the letter and the spirit of the Third Energy Package with respect to Nord Stream 2 under German jurisdiction to ensure unbundling and third-party access. This includes an assessment of any risks posed by certification of the project operator to the security of energy supply of the EU.
The United States and Germany are united in their belief that it is in Ukraine’s and Europe’s interest for gas transit via Ukraine to continue beyond 2024. In line with this belief, Germany commits to utilize all available leverage to facilitate an extension of up to 10 years to Ukraine’s gas Transit agreement with Russia, including appointing a special envoy to support those negotiations, to begin as soon as possible and no later than September 1. The United States commits to fully support these efforts.
Germany and the United States will endeavor to promote and support investments of at least $1 billion in the Green Fund for Ukraine, including from third parties such as private-sector entities. Germany will provide an initial donation to the fund of at least $175 million and will work toward extending its commitments in the coming budget years.
22 August 2021 - Nord Stream 2 'dangerous geopolitical weapon': Zelensky
Kiev sees the soon-to-be completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe and bypassing Ukraine as "a dangerous geopolitical weapon", President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday.
The Ukrainian leader was speaking at a joint press conference in Kiev with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has spearheaded the pipeline fiercely opposed by Russian neighbours Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states.
The $12-billion pipeline beneath the Baltic Sea is set to double Russian natural gas shipments to Germany, Europe's largest economy. It avoids Ukraine, depriving Kiev of essential gas transit fees.
[M: Yearly transit fees are around € 2 Billion]
Merkel said the Germany-US agreement specifies "sanctions" if gas is "used as a weapon".
12 Dec 2021 - Dec 12, 2021 - Berlin warns no green light for Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Ukraine 'escalation'
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia will not be allowed to operate in the event of any new "escalation" in Ukraine, under an agreement between Berlin and Washington, Germany's new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday.
[M: Note the deal is about NS2, the US previously acknowledged NS1 is OK due to long term deals and Germany needing gas imports for industry. The energy security issue both Trump and Biden spoke about was the over-reliance on one exporter]
Fast forward:
8 June 2022 Angela Merkel in the interview:
"But it wasn't an easy decision. "The thesis at the time was that once Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will stop supplying gas through Ukraine or even attack it." The West ensured that gas was routed through Ukraine anyway, and she continued to receive transit fees. Merkel pointed out that Russia then attacked Ukraine on February 24, when gas was not yet routed through Nord Stream 2 . "In this sense, gas was not a weapon," Merkel said."
II. Biden says he will end Nordstream 2 AG
09 Feb 2022 - Biden says he'll shut down Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia further invades Ukraine
"If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2,"
Biden said. "We will bring an end to it."Asked how the U.S. would ensure that, Biden did not offer specifics:
"I promise you: We will be able to do it." It's a point Biden administration officials have stressed in recent weeks.
10 Feb 2022 - Biden says the Nord Stream 2 pipeline won't move ahead if Russia invades Ukraine
President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a joint news conference on Monday that they are in complete agreement on sanctions against Moscow if diplomacy fails and Russia invades Ukraine again.
That includes working together to stop the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline — a multibillion-dollar vein that runs from Russia to Germany.The pipeline is not yet operational but has emerged as a key issue in the standoff.
[M: See the problem? Biden and US never spoke about Nordstream AG, only about Nordstream 2 AG; Since Trump the USA was against the over-reliance (see video) of its ally on Russian gas. Compare this to statements of UK about the same topic in this same timeframe - data collected here]
23 Feb 2022 - US imposes further sanctions on Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Russia calls them ‘illegal’
III. Scholz Reaffirms the Merkel´s deal
22 Feb 2022 - Merkel´s deal reaffirmed
Two days before Russia's invasion, chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he had ordered the economy ministry to withdraw a supply security report, which is an essential element for certification, effectively putting the process on hold. This came as a reaction to Russia's president Vladimir Putin officially recognising two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.
[M: See? Both USA and Germany honoured the deal and had no more issues about Russian NS1. Meanwhile the uK was pushing for more - see here.]
11 July - 21 July 2022 Nordstream yearly checkup/maintenance works05 July - 17 July 2022 NATO BALTOPS exercise
[M: It takes about 10 days to run the pigging tool through the pipeline. It is inconceivable and risky that explosions would be planted before that date. Collected data include magnetic anomalies and other irregularities which could hint to explosives.]
[M: There is a risk that the internal and external checks would reveal planted charges. External checks described here]
[M: This hints to the window of opportunity for planting explosives between the 21 July 2022 and 25th of September 2022. Movement of ships within 10 nautical miles of future blasts- here by]
[M: Note that the shorter the time before the event the smaller the chance of premature exposure.]
[M: The timing kind of disqualifies BALTOPS for being the timeframe when explosives were planted - post here]
V. NATO Baltops naval exercise
4 June 2022 - Germany purchases 7 additional Boeing P-8A Poseidon and buries MAWS project, to complete a fleet of 12 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA).
[M: Germany sees vulnerable in maritime area, why? did some recent demonstration show lack of performance vs proof of capabilities of P8 so GER decided for the switch?]
8 June 2022 - US and GER military planes conducted activity over future Nordstream attack site. The Boeing P-8A simply switched off its call sign, several rounds over the NS blast site.
14 June 2022 - BALTOPS 22: A Perfect Opportunity for Research and Resting New Technology
Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68.
15 June 2022 - Royal Navy divers from Portsmouth undertake ‘importance’ explosives clearance using state-of-the-art drones in Lithuania
June 15 2022 - Experimentation on new types of unmanned...
...underwater vehicles were also tested off the coast of Bornholm Island, Denmark during the exercise.
The new spin story is that Russia has been near future blasts on the 14th of July during the Baltops exercise. What happened there?
[M: Let me copy-paste excellent comment by Erik Andersson...]
The RU ship turned on 14th at 18:00 back and went back toward the future blast.
[M: Details about Bornholm Deep basin and suitability for submarine operation is described here.]
[M: The Scandinavian documentary actually does not say anything new. All data about ships were already known. They are just confirmed by satellite data and they match. AIS data are freely available here.]
June 2022: Der Spiegel was the first to report that the The C.I.A...
...issued a vague warning in June to a number of European nations, including Germany, that the two Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia could be targeted in forthcoming attacks, three senior officials familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday...... what intelligence officials call “strategic warning” of a possible attack — a warning that came with no specifics about the likely time or place or manner of a potential strike... The Biden administration, which in the run-up to the war often accused Russia of planning attacks on Ukraine, was careful on Tuesday not to blame Moscow — or anyone else.
[M: It is unknown when exactly in June this strategic warning happened. Was it before the Baltops? Did US got some information during Baltops? Or after?]
[M: The USA was not against the Nordstream AG only against the over-reliance on RU energy and Nordstream 2 pipeline. The "Merkel/Schloz-Biden deal" was agreed and the USA had no reason to push forward against the Nordstream 1 pipelines. The USA stated that Germany´s energy security depends on Russian gas. The Germany has ongoing deal until 2030 to purchase Russian gas at set price.]
VIII. Russia can not patrol Nordstream in Territorial waters.
16 June 2022 - Russia once again intrudes into Danish territory
This time a warship entered Danish waters near Bornholm while thousands attend Folkemødet political festival on the island
16 June2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned Following Violation of Danish Airspace: “Inacceptable breach”
The summons is a reaction to Russia’s violation of Danish airspace on 11 June between 11:08 a.m. and 11:42 a.m., during which time two Russian SU-30 fighter planes were observed over Danish airspace near Christiansø Island and Bornholm Island.
17 June 2022 - Russian warship violated Danish territorial waters in Baltic, Danish military says
[M: How strange that in such a short time Russia violated 3x with different means Danish Territorial Zone? As for military ships they are allowed free passage but they must not conduct military operations. So, were Russian assets - plane and ships conducting some anti--submarine searches?]
[M: Whose submarine visited Bornholm Deep before the Nordstream was blown up?]
IX. The USS Kaersarge group left Baltic Sea and then returns
3 August 2022 - Kearsarge ARG, 22nd MEU return to the Baltic Sea
Elements of the ARG-MEU include flagship Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS Arlington (LPD 24), and Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), along with accompanying Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Arleigh Burke (DDG 51).
The Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), with embarked 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), returned to the Baltic Sea, August 2, to strengthen interoperability with key NATO allies and partners.
X. The Nordstream 2 AG wins 2 court cases
12 July 2022 - The Court declares the action brought by Nord Stream 2 AG against the directive extending certain rules of the internal market in natural gas to pipelines from third countries to be partially admissible
8 September 2022 - Swiss court gives Nord Stream 2 more time to avoid insolvency.
In May, the court granted a provisional moratorium against bankruptcy proceedings for the first time, which was valid until September. Now it is extended by half year.
[M: these 2 won cases are important for Nordstream 2 AG to go online. Someone had to be quite unhappy as the only left was the military solution to blow NS1 and NS2 apart OR the LONG TERM delivery deals would be shortly in place.]
[M: So from 08/09/2022 the only thing protecting flow through the NS2 was the Merkel/Scholz deal. The NS2 most likely challenged "unbundling" issue on lower court as well. German public was already demanding reopening pipelines. Someone whose own energy strategy, political aims, and other objectives now seen a window of opportunity shrinking. Only possibility to take out NS2 was a military action.]
XI. Kaersarge detects a submarine
1,2,3 Sept 2022 - US Military Helicopters Circled Around Future Nord Stream Leaks For Hours In September
In particular, at the beginning of the month, a US Navy Sikorsky MH-60R Seahawk helicopter loitered over the location of pipelines in the Baltic Sea near Bornholm for three days in a row on September 1, 2 and 3.
Anti-Submarine-Warfare, they stay at place,
they can drop sonar or sonar-buoy and transmit data]
Helicopters are better than planes due to lower speed for anti-sub warfare]
[M: The post of the blogger is interesting. How so no Russian sub was announced?
US was conducting anti-submarine mission which has not been a drill.][Could it be that a UK submarine was discovered here?]
It is curious that on September 2, almost in parallel with the US military, a military helicopter NH90 of the Dutch Navy was flying in the vicinity of Bornholm Island, probably observing the activities of the Americans....
US helicopters, according to Flightradar24, also flew over the branches of Russian gas pipelines on September 10 and September 19.
[Could it be that a UK submarine was tracked and followed here?]
In all cases, the trajectories of the US military speak of observation flights or loitering with other targets over a specific section of the water area. Helicopters that made sorties on the night of September 22-23 and 25-26 have especially confusing tracks.
[M: Perhaps there was a UK submarine in the vicinity and US Navy from Kaersarge was tracking its movements. This kind of excludes that it was a secret approved NATO operation, looks more like UK went rogue and USA has been on it, knew, monitored yet has not stopped it or did not understand intentions of the submarine - speculating on another post with How it maybe went - so far sequence is in few posts on twitter. Btw, the path looks like the helicopter dropped sonarbuoys, then cycles to transmit its data to Kaersarge].
2 Sept 2022 - helicopter call sign FFAB123 MH-60S from USS Kearsarge flew either along the route of Nord Stream-2 or generally between the points where the accident occurred.
Then it was announced: "On September 15-19 warships of Germany, France and Estonia are assembling in Klaipėda Seaport for international annual maneuvers Northern Coasts 2022 in the Baltic Sea."
The exercise was extended over the 26/09 event. WHY?
"Our allies expect a leadership role from us" mean that US said to its allies to take care of its pipelines after warning them?
"The Baltic Sea is of vital importance for the Alliance and is bordered by six NATO countries”, said NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu. “Northern Coasts is now in its 13th year.'
Note Bundeswehr statements:
The increased presence in the Baltic Sea has also had an impact on the Navy's annual autumn maneuvers: Northern Coasts lasted longer than usual this year at four weeks, from 29 August to 28 September. This provided an opportunity for more participation from Germany's Baltic Sea partners.
"As a major resident, we have a natural focus in the Baltic Sea region," explains the Inspector of the Navy, Vice Admiral Jan-Christian Kaack. "Our allies expect a leadership role from us.""There has been a significant shift in the projects of our ships, boats and aircraft from outside to the Baltic Sea," confirms frigate captain Ulrich F. from the MOCMaritime Operations Centre. And he adds: “This applies to both national and international units. However, exact figures, data and facts are classified.”"...As much steel at sea as possible..."
TO DO:
21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."
"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."
"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.
We must do this together."
We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.
08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action.
[M: Is this a public admission that UK will in 3 days blow Nordstream pipelines? A public announcement of interested for allies to later refer to - "we are transparent"?]
[M: What happened around this meeting is described in this post - US-UK special relationship"
Was it because of what happened in Washigton?
'
23 Sept 2022 - Anti-submarine warfare MH-60R from the nearby USS Kearsarge
24 Sept 2022 - US Navy MH-60R Sea Hawk VVHG725
24 Sept 2022 - No doubt "something" has the USN's interest- concern off Kaliningrad.
Helo has been over that spot for 7 consecutive days.
XVIII. Protests in Lubin, GER on 25-09-2022
On 23.09. Residents of various districts of Berlin saw a small plane in the sky pulling a banner with the inscription "Start Nord Stream 2 now".
One day before on 25-09-2022 German public demands reopening of pipelines:
Action was held in Germany in support of the launch of the Nord Stream 2According to police, 3,500 people gathered in Lubmin near Greifswald on Sunday afternoon to demonstrate against the energy policy of the federal government, demonstration.
XIX. Statements of Austin vs statements of Blinken
According this post: "Who said it is a "Sabotage" first?" US state secretary Anthony Blinken was "shaping" the narrative and definition of the case as a "sabotage" while US defence minister Lloyd Austin was unaware of the case and did not try to define, explaining that communication with allies continues.
[M: Kind of odd behaviour to look unprepared would US be behind the affair]
SUMMARY:
* The data I collected do not show USA/Biden involvement, rather the opposite
* The US waring to Nordstream shareholders seemed genuine It is likely that the German orthern shored exercise extension and locations may have been result of the warning.
* The USA, Russia, Sweden and Denmark all detected submarine at some points of time
,... and it was not Russian as all were accounted for, and the one Kilo Class they have in Baltics does not have the i/o underwater capability.
So Whose was it?
On 28-09-2022 CNN reports that:
"Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said... US officials declined to comment on the intelligence about the ships on Wednesday."
5 Oct 2022 - US considering offering to analyse underwater audio recordings to aid Nord Stream pipeline sabotage investigations
The US Navy’s processing of the sonar signatures – the term for the unique underwater sounds – provided by Sweden and Denmark could boost the investigations by providing a more detailed picture of what was in the area at the time of the pipeline explosions and what caused them, sources said...
Each type of underwater machinery like submarines, torpedoes and vessel engines makes a unique sound that is called a “sonar signature,” and the US has an extensive library of these sounds.
* THE UK IS A PRIME SUSPECT, NOT USA:
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