PREFACE/ISSUE
The moment of truth or just a hot air?
23-02-2023 Recap:
Blames governments of USA + NOR + SWE, the evidence so far has some issues, yet his track record is excellent. Does not specify the role of NATO.
Has good taste of music.
Zero track record, not even a journalist. Nobody.
Anonymous person who started blog to sort out his thoughts.
Possibly solves the case while tweeting about it online.
States that the conclusive key evidence is with Investigators who will not publish for several reasons, starts own investigation meanwhile, puts his skin in game and moves through mountains of documents and data to find a few pins, very promising ones... Then does it.
States a UK as his primary suspect, lists several other individuals with high probability of collaborating in the affair, enabling it.
Distorted music taste from Antwoord to classical music.
Pick your fighter, make your bets, lets roll!
Yesterday the research gained this gem, but is it a diamond?
Were US and UK explosives teams cooperating in studying the Nordstream Vulnerability in January 2022?
On 19 - 28 Jan 2022 - EXU-1, FBI Host Maritime Post-Blast Investigation Course at NAS Key West
KEY WEST, Fla. - Expeditionary Exploitation Unit 1 (EXU-1) and the FBI’s Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Section conducted a maritime post-blast investigation course at Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West, Florida, Jan. 19-28.The U.K. Royal Navy Diving and Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) and three U.S. Navy explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) teams, including technicians from EXU-1 and EOD Mobile Unit 3, collaborated to expand and develop their maritime post-blast exploitation techniques through seven days of classroom coursework, diving, and strategic case study analysis.
The course coordinates the combined response of maritime exploitation capabilities by the Department of Defense, Department of Justice (DOJ), and the U.K. Royal Navy to global maritime explosive attacks from strategic competition in the maritime domain.
“In terms of our outlook on current geopolitical events, what helps is having both of our groups looking at the same problem sets. Working together, information exchange is quite easy and prevents numerous delays. We are often in the same places and operating jointly, so our partnership constantly sharpens our skillsets and allows us to be more prepared,” he said. “Different events tie into intelligence gathering which we can all share with each other. That is critical because it allows us to be on the same page with one another before conflict happens. So when conflict does happen, we are all prepared.”
[M: No comment. Somebody will have to explain what happened there...]
01 March 2023 - Former British Foreign Secretary William Hague shared the dreams of the West.
In an interview with jokers Vovan and Lexus, who introduced themselves as the former president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko.
"...They will only do this in coordination with USA, Britain OFTEN fulfils a role of strengthening the courage of the USA, strengthening of resolve of USA, but Britain will not change its policy without the USA, without agreement with USA. So the KEY decision is still in Washington..."
[M: Could the view be applied also for the Nordstream affair?]
There are issues with Hersh claim, quite a few actually:
I have found email to Sy Hersh and exchanged with him over 20 emails.
Conclusion
What are the options?
- One could be true only, either US or UK behind
- Both countries (and perhaps others) were cooperating
- Neither one has done it.
- Russia has not retaliated so it does not consider it to be "state actors" and them using NATO infrastructure'
This leads to: WHICH ONE?
How do I see it? Based on what I researched:
- The UK, rogue, outside NATO, tight slim team.
- Very long thorough preparations, simulations, strategy, etc.
- Helped by several corrupted people in key positions (in EU, NATO,..).
- Informed USA short time before but attack against Nordstream was already irreversible. Got some approval (?) or was not stopped.
- News show the USA, SWE, DK, GER, PL do not seem to be co-state actors.
Where do You put your bets? What is Your take? Make a comment pls.
QUESTION: Should somebody REALLY look into this?
Is this much dodo about nothing? Why has nobody brought this meeting up yet?
I have explored the UK team here, unfortunately having not time to look into USA teams.
The public has the right to know about this meeting!
Yes?
It's interesting how firm the comments from USA are about not doing it. But I still somehow get the sense that they have some cards they are not showing. That they were informed before or became aware of who did it after or have strong info. I'd be very curious to question some of the people like Blinken "do you know who did it"? "Do you have information or analysis about who likely did it"?
ReplyDeleteI have not seen them asked this sort of question or make a flat denial. Just something about their behavior makes me think there's more to it.
I put my bet on divers versus a sub. Just think that Danish straight is too shallow for submerged entry and unlikely to come in surfaced or at PD. Depth is OK in the blast area but not in the Kattegat.
ReplyDeleteI think it would be a totally cool sub operation to try (just for the difficulty and the adventure), but it would be the wrong tool for the job. Divers from a ship much easier. Could even be done from a decent sized yacht. Do it at night and blow off the whole "tracker" thing.
I have been following the case daily, several times, watched many videos of politicians, read many news,... It DOES look like that people on the top positions are well aware of who has done it but they have deliberately chosen in some "behind the door" voting, without any public discussion how this EU top issue will be handled with NO public participation. And that is plain wrong.
ReplyDeleteIt creates horrible precedent for future.
Unfortunately I do not have time to elaborate on the passage through the DK straights, this came up in several discussions. I was told by DK navy dude that It is possible, but very risky. During high tide, moonless night it is doable. A courageous adversary could do.
There are many reports about unidentified intrusions in Baltics, most associated with RU but we do not know. Going inside the trget area during BALTOPS between your boats hidden in some coordinated fashion, e.g. at night with low traffic? Very dable. Btw, moon was right. Also the sea the week before the event was calm, sunny days, I was told, reposted in a post local from the tiny island.
Subs have it forbidden to go through DK straights. It is said that DK has there maybe some sensors. So next reason that Mette left to London.
I think it's doable, but very tricky and very high risk. Submarines have deep draft. If you are submerged (including at periscope depth) and you hit something, it is all your fault. Also, your speed has to be fairly slow at PD because otherwise you draw a wake (splash of water from) the scope and if too fast can even bend it. Limited to a few knots. Means even trickier to avoid other contacts in a CBDR situation. You have to stick to the channel also given the draft. (80% of a submarine is under water, even when surfaced...they are very deep draft ships).
DeleteIf you did it surfaced and darkened ship a lot of the same applies (other than speed). You're still restricted to the channel and it's all your fault if you hit something and you're going up a channel that has lots of traffic.
I still think it would be a hoot to try it. But way high risk that's not needed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqjIzyylcoA
Really the Bongo Straight sounds easier. That Kattegat is under 15 fathoms. You'd need to be at PD the whole time.
Delete1. There was a sub here the week before.
Delete"...Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said, as cited by CNN..."
2. SWE navy, DUT helicopter with ASW, US planes with ASW, all were tracking something under.
3. Geography very pro- sub deployment...
https://nordstreambymortymer.blogspot.com/2023/02/whose-submarine-was-there-week-before.html
My revelatory flash idea is that it was the work of PL team. I know how religiously this seems but it did not fail me yet.
ReplyDeleteWhy PL?
While i lived in the USA, i was hearing the strategists idea that Poland should take the role of economic break stop to east instead of Germany. Soon watching the statistics about how PL is using over 250% of alocated EU funds for developement. That was obviously on US orders to EU council. That confirmed the taking over the role from Germany as economic superpower as a break stop from the east.
The news next day after NS explosions were all about opening gas pipeline from Norway to PL. Now gas transit fees will go to PL instead of Germany and Ukraine. (Major resitance to NS1 and 2 was because the Russian plans to closes pipelines trough Ukraine which would deprive them of transit fees. Yesetrday Russia stoped using those pipelines.
So, the last date for explosions was set to be the day before Opening Norway pipes, but surely that they were planted way earlier and waiting for NS2 to be open but it did not known if it did. I believe that NS2 was in use no matter public informations. They probably started using NS2 after Germany took control of Gasprom EU Hq.
PL behaviour indicates that they are aware of being on the receiving end of US power developement and they act accordingly. Hence, PL demanding reparations from Germany for WWII damage. They want to speed up the process.
My two cents with a pinch of salt.
Cons of Poland
ReplyDelete- Part of EU, would not antagonize EU members
- Does not have nuclear deterrence
- Would make GER + RU angry so next Molotov-Ribentropp 2.0?
- Is part of Baltic trade artery, would risk DK to block its straights for trade after destroying fisheries
- Norway to PL pipeline is meaningless, NOR actually said in summer they can close their exports, were convinced not to.
- PL plays minimal part in NATO and would be exposed as all naval HQs are located in London - Northwood.