This post explores official statements by Mats Ljungqvist, the main Swedish prosecutor investigating the Nordstream Affair, and how his statements relate to my own private independent investigation.
I. Who was in SWE government on 26/09/2022?
Post listing top SWE government official is here.
II. What did SWE officials say shortly after the incident?
Post exploring government official statements is here.
III. News about the SWE investigation
After few not important posts things started to be more interesting...
Swedish officials confirmed Friday that the September blasts which destroyed sections of the Nord Stream pipelines carrying natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea were acts of sabotage.
[M: To differentiate and define what type of the crime it is is a tricky business and depend on knowing tho has done the crime, what were objectives and what damage and to whom it was done, what the mission was supposed to achieve. It is impossible to state with certainty that it was a "sabotage" if case is not processed by lawyers. A post dealing with legal aspects is here and here.]
“The analyzes conducted found traces of explosives on several foreign objects” found at the sites of the blasts, prosecutor
Mats Ljungqvist who is leading the preliminary investigation said in a statement.
Ljungqvist added that technical analyzes were continuing in order to “draw more reliable conclusions regarding the incident.”
Sweden’s Prosecution Authority said that the “continued investigation will show if anyone can be formally suspected of a crime.”
[M: When someone is formally suspected of a crime, they might become the subject of an official investigation.]
Investigators had already said that preliminary inspections had reinforced suspicions of sabotage.
[M: As I stated the preliminary investigation without knowing who has done it and why could not define that it is a "sabotage". Note that IF the case was defined from the beginning as a "terrorist attack against key EU infrasru]
3 March 2023 - Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say
Mats Ljungqvist, a senior prosecutor leading Sweden’s investigation, told The New York Times late last month that his country’s hunt for the perpetrators was continuing.
“It’s my job to find those who blew up Nord Stream. To help me, I have our country’s Security Service,” Mr. Ljungqvist said. “Do I think it was Russia that blew up Nord Stream? I never thought so. It’s not logical. But as in the case of a murder, you have to be open to all possibilities.”
8 March 2023 - German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned...
... against reaching premature conclusions on who was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, suggesting the attack could also have been a ‘false flag’ operation to blame Ukraine
[M: Note that Russia has excluded Ukraine in the very beginning and that Ukraine was blaming Russia to "Terrorist Attack" definition in of the event compared to the "Sabotage" which hints that it was indeed not Ukraine. Also Ukraine does not have access to Baltic Sea, and neither Poland nor Germany have rose any alarm over their land being used for attack - a failure of anti-terrorist units to detect large amount of explosives. In theory there is a possibility that Ukrainian leadership "knew" about the operation beforehand but were not the prime perpetrator. List of government officials who are suspects here. The main suspect is UK - here. Russia blamed Anglo-Saxons which is same conclusion as this investigation found out.]
Mats Ljungqvist, the prosecutor in charge, is doing it "with help from the Swedish police, the Swedish security service and other authorities. If needed, the prosecutor can request help, with submarines and whatnot," he said.
When asked if Ljungqvist can be trusted to do it free from political interference given Russia's accusations, the spokeswoman cited Sweden's credentials on transparency and rule of law.
"The prosecution authority is an independent body," he said.
"The government can issue general regulations to the [independent] authorities but, according to the [Swedish] constitution, must not give directions in everyday matters," he added.
"When an investigation is completed and the prosecutor decides to indict, everything in the investigation becomes public," the spokeswoman also said.
"There are exceptions though — information that concerns the security of Sweden" she said.
[M: The security note is a hint that conclusions may be made secret - this means an influential member of NATO was behind.]
"We have already conducted an on-site forensic search, with support of research vessels. Our investigations are ongoing and I cannot predict when they will be finalised," a spokeswoman for the German Federal Prosecutor's Office said.
The Danish probe into explosions in Denmark's maritime area is being done by Copenhagen police with the help of the Danish Defence Forces and the Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET).
PET is handling media queries and saying little, however.
"The investigation is still ongoing and we usually don't comment," it said.
It is unclear what investigations Russia has carried out, but last October it also blamed the British navy for blowing up Nord Stream.
[M: A lot of data point to the UK Navy mission - here, here and here. There are more posts which are related to the UK being prime suspect like e.g. here or here. Suspects post is here]
6 April 2023 - Prosecutors are investigating whether Sweden is involved in the Nord Stream sabotage
Chamber prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist tells TV4 Nyheterna that it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly who or who are behind the detonations, even if there are only a few suspects left.
We are in a situation where we have to accept that it will likely be difficult to pinpoint an actor behind this, he says.
[M: It is politically difficult to day it was a NATO, with high probability UK government and where it originated. Anyway, full responsibility lies with top government officials representing a state, even if government changed the next one bears responsibility as well.]
We want to rule out that Swedish ports, infrastructure or Swedes are involved, he tells TV4 Nyheterna.
"Working on being able to rule out or confirm that Sweden was used as a springboard"
[M: This is a very serious and valid reason. Sweden is part of the UK led JEF - Joint Expeditionary Force, a sub-NATO group which is not tied with articled on joint defence. This group was in high alert during and after the attack on the Nordstream and was ready to respond to any Russian retaliation. See here post about JEF - link. Sweden also explores connection with NATO "Ramstein Alloy Exercise" which took place on 26,27/09/2022 and was testing readiness for breach of Article 5. Members were Hungary, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania... to "prepare for meaningful execution of NATO’s Deter and Defence concept in the Baltic region,” ..."The exercise series integrates more than two dozen fighter and support aircraft and NATO airborne early warning aircraft with NATO and national command and control centres. The realistic drills train Allied forces to deter and – if needed – defend against any aggression."]
[M: Another exercise was on 1st-12th of Oct 2022 - NATO ships participate in UK Exercise Joint Warrior, 11 000 personnel. The biannual exercise includes defence against simulated attacks above, on, and below the water – extending from Cape Wrath and the Hebrides in the north, to the North Sea and the western Channel.]
[M: Another exercise was on 17th of October 2022 - UK and Swedish Air Forces conduct live air attack exercise Baltic Striker. The exercise was conducted as part of an effort to continue enhancing the JEF interoperability. The JEF is a rapid response force that can be deployed at a time of crisis, either with Nato or on its own. This means that the JEF is not bound by the Article 5 of joint defence. Question arises about how much NATO leaders knew who was behind at this point? Was it a false flag in which strategists expected certain Russian response? If that is the case the perpetrator was acting very irresponsibly.]
Since the sabotage of the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 last year, there has been speculation as to who or who are behind it. For example, the US, Russia and a pro-Ukraine group have all been singled out as guilty in various rounds.
[M: There are several posts with data-sets which point to the same conclusions. Neither Russia nor USA have been involved - post, post, post and post.]
The actors who carried out this attack were aware that they were leaving traces behind. They have left traces behind that point in slightly different directions, says Mats Ljungqvist.
[M: Plural points to to actors who tried to confuse but not conceal. This points to Western state which just needed a certain time not to be revealed in the critical post attack stage. This hints to political cover-up which is along Lunquist´s statement about .]
6 April 2023 - State actor involvement in Nord Stream pipeline attacks is 'main scenario', says Swedish investigator
There are certain companies that have certain special missions that mean they could, in theory, carry this out … We don’t rule out anything, but that it is a state actor who is directly or at least indirectly behind this is of course our absolute main scenario, given all the circumstances.
The people who did this have probably been aware that they would leave clues behind and probably took care so that the evidence would not point in one direction, but in several directions … That makes it difficult to clearly point to one actor.
[M: This hints that the investigation is checking relationship between several groups and who knew what at certain time. Then there is of course a deductive logic which points to just one perpetrator - the UK.]
"I don't want to comment on any specific report but I can conclude that many of the hot theories can be easily ruled out based on what we know from the investigation," he said.
[M: Same here, there are many Spin doctor theories, read here debunking them.]
Chief Nord Stream investigator Mats Ljungqvist speaks:
Same singular state-actor suspected on all sites.
Red herrings were planted
"Choice of explosive" excludes many actors.
Ljungqvist really emphasises last point.
6 April 2023 - Prosecutors are investigating whether Sweden is involved in the Nord Stream sabotage
Since the sabotage of the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 last year, there has been speculation as to who or who are behind it. For example, the US, Russia and a pro-Ukraine group have all been singled out as guilty in various rounds.
[M: Simple deductive logic with factual evidence about which countries have "alibi" is a good start for beginning to focus in the investigation. I did that as the first step. If one excludes the impossible what is left, however improbable must be the truth]
6 April 2023 - The perpetrators behind the Nord Stream sabotage remain unknown... The investigation is headed by a National Security Unit prosecutor.
7 April 2023 - State actor still main suspect behind Nord Stream sabotage, says investigato The Swedish prosecutor, who was carrying the Nord Stream sabotage attack's investigation, said the “clear main scenario” was that there was the involvement of a state-sponsored group, as he expressed his doubt over theories that suggested an independent group's involvement in the pipeline blasts.
[M: The operation was a naval one. Key naval centre is in London, see post]
Mats Ljungqvist, speaking to Reuters on Thursday, said that although theoretically there is a possibility of a non-state-backed plot, the kind of explosive used in the blasts ruled out a “large portion of actors.”
Dismissing the theories around the Nord Stream pipeline blasts, the prosecutor called all the speculations "politically motivated". “The incident has obviously become an open arena for different influence attempts,” said Ljungqvist.
[M: Special post about spin theories here]
“These speculations do not have an impact on the ongoing investigation, which is grounded in facts and the information which has emerged from analyses, crime scene investigations and collaboration with authorities in Sweden and other countries,” he added.
“We are working unconditionally, turning over every stone and leaving nothing to chance. Our hope is to be able to confirm who has committed this crime but it should be noted that it likely will be difficult given the circumstances,” Ljungqvist said.
[M: A post about Truss possibly killing NATO/Trans-Atlantic alliance here. Since Russia did not blame NATO directly it had to be a NATO member acting rogue with direct or silent help from other states. The working strong hypothesis is that it was the UK. One hint is that Sweden is investigating possible involvement of own country, individuals and/or its infrastructure. The NATO seems not to be involved yet the centre of NATO Marine operation is in London. Hence a strong suspicion that the UK was behind monitoring moves of other NATO members. Uncovering who knew what at different stages is a political nuclear bomb which could put down instantly several governments in Europe and cause international turmoil, instability, realignment...]
26 May 2023 - Riled on Nord Stream Probe, Russia Summons European Envoys
The Swedish government prosecutor overseeing Stockholm’s investigation had acknowledged the “detonations” that hit both pipelines of the twin Baltic Sea gas conveyor, which partly lies in Swedish and Danish exclusive economic zones, may have been orchestrated by a government.
“We got a pretty clear picture at the scene of the crime of who carried it out”, Mats Ljungqvist told Russian state media TASS in comments about a Swedish update on the probe April 10. “It cannot be ruled out that there are some private individuals who may have been the perpetrators. Still, our main lead is, of course, that a government is behind it - directly or indirectly”.
[M: Looks like the state which has done it is known but investigators are going after individuals who were involved. There may be some who are not government employees. My set of suspects is here]
14 June 2023 - Swedish prosecutor hopes to conclude Nord Stream investigation in autumn - Swedish radio
Mats Ljungqvist, the prosecutor leading the Swedish investigation, told Swedish Radio he had met the German prosecutor and that they were working together but declined to give further details.
"I hope that we at least this autumn will be able to make a decision regarding indictments, at least that is the ambition as things stand now," Ljungqvist told Swedish public service broadcaster SR. "I think, actually, in time, it will be brought to light (who carried out the sabotage)."
[M: Hints to the NATO member which is invested and involved in the Ukrainian affair. I suspect that there is some agreement not to reveal the culprit while the conflict is still in active stage.]
Ljungqvist told Reuters in April that the main scenario was that a state or a state-backed group was behind the attack.
"I think that hypothesis has been strengthened during the course of the investigation," he told SR.
22 June 2023: "#NordStream Blasts Probe: 
Prosecutors Reserve Right to Classify Specific Data"
The disclaimer comes a week after Mats Ljungqvist, the public prosecutor in charge of the probe, hinted charges could be framed against perpetrators in the coming months.
The move is in line with national laws for the Swedish Prosecution Authority to decide how much material it wants to enter the public domain - in case there is an indictment - the body asserted. (Ria Novosti)
"If there is going to be an indictment, parts of the investigation material will probably be public. Generally, a prosecutor in Sweden may also decide that some parts should remain confidential.
If an investigation is discontinued, no material will be public. After such decisions, everyone is able to request the material via either the court, police or prosecutor," the authority said.
20 September 2023: Swedish prosecutor hopes to conclude Nord Stream enquiry by year-end
"We hope to conclude the investigation shortly but there is still a lot to do and nothing will happen for the next four weeks," Mats Ljungqvist said in an interview.
"By conclude, I mean that we close the investigation or take a decision to bring charges against someone," he said, adding that the ambition was to reach a decision before the end of the year.
[M: Lets return to this on 19-10-2023]
Summary:
- There is no contradiction between mine and SWE investigation.
- Mat Ljundgqvist statements mentions that the Russia was excluded and that a government is behind the act.
- My conclusion of the UK government being the main rogue actor is not excluded.
- Mat Ljundgqvist has not defined what type of the crime was it - sabotage, terrorist or else as explained on my other post.
- Mat Ljundgqvist statements seem to be hinting that there are SWE security constraints which prohibit to mention the main suspect.
Conclusion:
Given the data in public domain and the data set I collected there is a very high probability that the UK government was behind the Nordstream affair and that other countries know well about this.
I see a point in filing criminal cases against those who did the crime and those who covered it up. Perhaps official investigations could proceed but without announcing who was behind due to political risk.
