Beware of Spin-doctor Muppets in the Nordstream affair

PREFACE/ISSUE

There is a war of narratives. A lot of news are circulating.

Some of them could be debunked with an ease.

LIST OF SPINS & DEBUNKING THEM:

"War or narratives aka Disinformation campaigns"

CASE 1 - RUSSIA SELF SABOTAGED PIPELINES TO PUNISH EUROPE

DEBUNK:

• The legal definition of self-sabotage excludes any insurance payments. I made a post about legal issues here. It covers basics and acts of insurance companies withing the sanctions environment.
  
  
• Russia could and did slow flows as a response to technical difficulties with turbines - here, partial Force Majuere was already in place on NS1. 
  
  
• Russia was actually running legal battles to remove sanctions, to bring NS2 online, to get both pipelines serviced by subcontracting service providers who were worrying about possible sanctions. On 10 Sept NS2 won a court case in SUI to extend out-of bankruptcy for next several months - here. 
  
  
• Next extension case for next half a year was also negotiated and NS2 has still time till summer 2023.
  
  
• If Russia wanted the end they would most likely not tried to spend money, time and effort in a lost case, damaged pipelines.
  
  

CASE 2 - RUSSIA TRIED TO HURT EUROPE ECONOMICALLY

DEBUNK:

• Sanctions against Russian energy were hurting Europe already much before Nordstream pipelines were attacked.
  
  
• There was a threat of € 1.5 Trillion size Margin Call on European energy utilities and traders - see post here. Sanctions have already caused the damage. The post explains how sanctions on NS2 caused unintended consequences on smaller deliveries through NS1 aka self inflicted pain.
  
  
• The situation was the lose-lose for both, Russia and EU. Both sides were feeling the pain before and after the event.
  
  

CASE 3 - RUSSIA USED THE ENERGY WEAPON, HYBRID WARFARE

DEBUNK:

• The post "The Act of Retorsion allows Gazprom legal suspension of deliveries to Europe" explains how as an act of reaction to unilateral non UN sanctions Russia was free to indefinitely suspend Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline under current international law so long as the suspension continues to be an act of retorsion. Post here.
  
  
• Interestingly Russia lowered the flow in ratio to available turbines which legally shows that they did try in good faith to provide agreed deliveries.
  
  
• There was no economical gain for Russia to stop deliveries as the post here explains.
  
  
• On 18 June 2022 Angela Merkel in the interview:
  
  "But it wasn't an easy decision. "The thesis at the time was that once Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will stop supplying gas through Ukraine or even attack it." The West ensured that gas was routed through Ukraine anyway, and she continued to receive transit fees. Merkel pointed out that Russia then attacked Ukraine on February 24, when gas was not yet routed through Nord Stream 2 . "In this sense, gas was not a weapon," Merkel said."
  
  

CASE 4 - RUSSIA BLEW PIPELINES TO GET OUT OF OBLIGATIONS TO DELIVER, OR TO GET OUT OF CONTRACTS

DEBUNK:

• The entity which sells gas and the one which delivers are different
  
  
• Buyers and Gazprom could legally agree to use different delivery pipeline.
  
  
• The destruction of Nordstream pipelines pushes Russia to deliver same agreed volumes through different routes.
  
  

CASE 5 - RUSSIA IS A TERRORIST STATE THEY BLEW PIPELINES

DEBUNK:

• It was the West government officials who have deliberately chosen the term "sabotage" instead of "an act of international terrorism" post here
  
  
• Ukraine was actually stating in the early phase that it was a terrorist act against EU, later they also switched to the term "sabotage".
  
  
• In past 26 Jan 2006 - Georgia: Tbilisi Accuses Moscow Of Energy Sabotage
  The case was frequented as a proof that Russia blew pipelines in the past. Evidence shows Russia/Gazprom switched immediately all deliveries through different pipelines and fixed damaged part briskly. There were rumours that it was rogue elements inside Abkhasian separatist movement which acted without Kremlin approval. 
  
  

CASE 6 - EXPLOSIVES WERE INSTALLED DURING CONSTRUCTION

4 Oct 2022 - Russia 'may have packed explosives' onto the Nord Stream pipelines during construction

DEBUNK:

• A post exploring that Russia has no motives, no gain is here and here
  
  
• Nordstream AG and Nordstream 2 AG use 3rd party subcontractors for yearly internal and external check-ups, post here. These would be likely found.
  
  
• Sanctions against Norstream 2 created legal environment that Russia could stop NS1 flows if it wished to in response to these indirect sanctions, here. 
  
  

CASE 7 - RUSSIA TRIED TO FRAME A NATO STATE

DEBUNK:

• The selection of Exclusive Economical zones of Denmark and Sweden excludes the possibility of Russia to participate in the investigation - post. 
  
  
• Both Nordstream AG and Nordstream 2 AG are incorporated in Switzerland so it is Switzerland whose companies got damaged. 
  
  
• It is unclear to public how the case should proceed legally. Russia is excluded from all investigations. This must have been known by saboteurs.
  
  
• Russia said specifically that they blame UK Navy, Specialists, Special Boat services (SBS) team.
  
  

CASE 8 - POLAND OPENED THE NEXT DAY COMPETING PIPELINE

DEBUNK:

• The Baltic pipeline volume 10 billion m3/a, Nordstream 4 lines joint volume
  
  
• Combined annual capacity of Nordstream pipelines is 110 billion cubic metres (3.9 trillion cubic feet) 
  
  
• Norway does not have reserves nor the capacity to pump more - post.
  
  
• Poland would risk Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact 2.0. 
  
  
• Russia has not blamed Poland.
  
  

CASE 9 - NORWAY WANTED TO GET RUSSIAN SHARE

DEBUNK:

• Norway energy exports to EU were at the limit. Why to blow Nordstream then? Separate post here.
  
  
• Norway does not have capability to defend itself would Russia find out it was them who were the main state actor.
  
  
• Russia has not blamed Norway.

CASE 10 - UKRAINE HAS DONE IT

DEBUNK:

• With a smallest trace Ukraine could be framed as a terrorist greedy state who tried to blow competing pipelines to get more flows through their ageing pipeline system.
  
  
• Both Russia and Germany would be very upset about Ukraine. Germany would stop deliveries of weapons and any financial support immediately
  
  
• Russia has not blamed Ukraine.
  
  

CASE 11 - SEYMOUR BALTOPS HERSH EXPOSEE

DEBUNK:

• On 11 July - 21 July 2022 Nordstream yearly check-up/maintenance works
  
  
• On 05 July - 17 July 2022 NATO BALTOPS exercise 
  
  
• The difference between timings makes the planting of explosives very risky.
  Both, the external and check-ups could theoretically expose planted explosives. 
  
  
• Still possible but unlikely due to high risk due to large time gap to 26/09.
  
  
• Highly unlikely.

CASE 12 - THE ADROMEDA YACHT CASE AS A DELIVERY VEHICLE

7 March 2022 - The New York Times , Die Zeit and other German media claim

... that an undefined group of Ukrainians are behind the explosions of Nord Stream 1 and 2 off Bornholm last September.

DEBUNK:

• The Andromeda is a Bavaria C50, a sailing boat made by a German company, Bavaria Yachts. It has five cabins and room for up to 11 people. It has a platform at the back to dive from.
  
  
• At the site of the blasts, the Baltic Sea is about 80 metres deep.
  
  
• This boat can not easily anchor in 80 meters deep Baltic sea unless it has a very strong anchor and very long anchor rope/chain. To stay on a spot in windy day requires constant corrections and usage of fuel. It would needed to be done several times as blow sites are spread.
  
  
• This size boat would have by default at least 50-70 meters (165-230 feet) of anchor chain or rope meaning it can anchor safely in 10-15m depths. Additional length of chain or rope for use in deeper waters or in areas with strong currents or high winds.
  
  
• For anchoring in 80 meters (262 feet) of water, a minimum of 160 meters (525 feet) of anchor chain or rope would be required for a 1:1 scope ratio However, it is recommended to use a scope ratio of 1:5 to 1:7 in order to provide adequate holding power and reduce the risk of the anchor dragging.
  
  
• The usage of rented yacht is a very low tech for what is a critical "no failure allowed top secret mission". The state actor has unlimited budget and available high tech dedicated to covert mission such is was one.  
  
  
• Without anchoring/staying in place the safety of divers, the risk is increased. Highly unlikely.

CASE 13 - IT WAS USA during Baltops

DEBUNK:

• This post "About the GER-USA Nordstream 2 AG deal" here explains the Germany - USA deal about Nordstream 2 not going online would Russia go into Ukraie. 
  
  
• The USA used soft diplomatic power and agreement was reached and kept.
  
  
• The USA understood the energy security fundamentals of Germany and its usage of Nordstream 1 gas deliveries and has not pushed previously actively to Germany to stop but to phase out Russian gas.
  
  
• The USA sent strategic warning in June to Germany and other allies (probably FRA, DUT - other Nordstream AG shareholders) about strategic threat to pipelines - here.
  
  
• Highly unlikely.
  
  
• Baltops is a bad timing as there was a yearly maintenance which would likely discover anything added to pipeline due to sensors run through pipelines (pigging) and external checks by sonars/cameras, info here.
  
  

CASE 14 - UK suggests Russians special ops may have discreetly laid mines from a disguised commercial vessel

6 Oct 2022 - Swedish authorities announced on October 6 they 

...had conducted an underwater inspection of the site and collected "pieces of evidence". Meanwhile, Danish police on Tuesday said they had completed several inspections of the leaks in the Danish zone, together with the intelligence service PET.

Another probable cause, according to a British military source, is that the Russians special ops may have discreetly laid mines from a disguised commercial vessel and detonated them days or weeks later. 

 7 Oct 2022 - Fears Russia has planted mines on UK’s internet and power cables after ‘Putin ordered gas pipeline attack’

A government told the Daily Mail the Danish probe is being carefully watched to see if it will point the finger at Russia and Vladimir Putin.

DEBUNK:

• These news are showing that very likely Russian type mines were used in the Nordstream affair. It is unclear WHO may have planted them and whether it was not used to falsely blame Russia. Note news came from UK - which is also a suspect.
  
  
• On 23-05-2023 is stated that all Russian boats which were in vicinity were checked and excluded from being involved - GER investigator:
  
  "The Russian ships observed in the area of ​​the sabotage in the months before the explosions are no longer considered interesting by the German investigators.
  
  According to sources, the Russian ships have been able to be excluded from the investigation – their positions have been mapped and the conclusion must be that they have not been in such a place that they could have carried out the deed." 
  
  
• Swedish authorities have so far also been very tight-lipped about the investigation. Prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist has previously said that the main purpose of the Swedish preliminary investigation is to find out whether Sweden or Swedish infrastructure has been used for the attack and whether there are people who should be prosecuted for participation.

In an interview with TT, he has previously said that "the question of an actor with significant resources and knowledge is perfectly clear."

- We do not rule out that there could be actors that do not belong to a state that have the ability to do this. But then we are dealing with very few companies or groups.

CASE 15 - Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage

Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations. The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea. They carry underwater surveillance equipment and are mapping key sites for possible sabotage. 

The first of a series of reports is due to be broadcast on Wednesday by DR in Denmark, NRK in Norway, SVT in Sweden and Yle in Finland.

DEBUNK:

• Not much to debunk here yet. There is insufficient data, just a speculation. Using disguised fleet is a standard procedure of all navies ever since...  

[A day after I contacted foreign offices of South American states a new spin appears - I have gotten used to it already. I must be on something or quite a strange coincidence]

CASE 16 - The Russian SS-750 special craft was near the Nord Stream pipes four days before they were blown up on September 26 last year... there are 26 images by DK Nyfmen.

DEBUNK:

• Sighting of the vessel itself or unknown pictures taken do not represent a claim that Russian assets actually did some nefarious job. This case could not be debunked nor confirmed. It is just a statement that a Russian assets were in the vicinity. Reasons are not know.

With the amount of ship movements after 20-21/09 there may be some reason why there were so many fleets on the sea - e.g. here, here.

 

CASE 17 - Norway low tech took out €20 Billion pipelie network

18 May 2023 - Sold advanced equipment to Russian buyer: Became suspicious after Nord Stream explosion 

PST then discovered that the company had sold its goods to a Russian agent. It comes out in the last episode of PST's podcast . 

The intelligence officer had bought advanced underwater equipment for one million kroner.

DEBUNK:

• Those 20 Billion pipelines projects were taken down in super secret Russian military operation by non-pro  Norweigean advanced underwater equipment bought in Norway for one million kroner with trace to RU ambassy. The 1M NOK = 100 000 €....  Yup. That´s it. 
  
  
  

CASE 18 - Swedish newspaper pushes Andromeda story and positions it as Polish/Ukrainian

21 May 2022 - Suspected traces of the sabotage against Nord Stream

A 26-year-old Ukrainian soldier with a fake passport and a letterbox company in Warsaw are two hot leads in the German investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Expressen can reveal that in collaboration with European media. 

The Russian vessels seen near the gas pipeline have been dismissed in that investigation and the focus is on a sailboat where German police found traces of military explosives. 

"According to sources, the Russian ships have been excluded from the investigation - their positions have been mapped and the conclusion is that they were not in a position to carry out the attack"

DEBUNK:

• Fake identity created on  10th of October 2022: 

CASE 19 - There will be a few still

IF YOU HAVE AN IDEA OR OPINION PLEASE SHARE.

CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:

Another explanation is needed ! 

 

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 Underlined and summarized:

(INFORMATIVE TAB WITH VALUES ASSOCIATED TO POSSIBLE CANDIDATES) 

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