When did the state actor start to make plans to blow Nordstream?
"THE ENERGY STORM IS COMING"
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The UK consistently warned about the dangers posed by Europe's reliance on Russian gas and championed energy diversification. The trend has been a gradual increase in the rhetoric against the Russian hydrocarbons.Prominent figures, such as Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, voiced strong opposition to Nord Stream 2, emphasizing the necessity of reducing dependence on Russian energy sources. Giving two ultimatum to its allies to stop using Russian energy is not just a trivial political positioning, it underlies possible deeper strategy plans. Trend is noticed to increase pressure on its allies.
In response to rising energy prices, the UK implemented mitigation measures, including a price cap. Their own gas and oil fields in North sea are depleting and no new major discoveries have been found for long time.
UK's wider strategy actions might have been influenced by economic considerations, particularly within the context of Brexit.
Some of the statements like from Liz Truss are more than eye rising. Give the timing, could that be interpreted as a bragging, confession or a plan open announcement to allies about UK´s intentions?
Conclusion for a comprehensive investigation is established, it is essential to further ascertain the degree of UK involvement in the Nord Stream affair.
DATA:
I. Was UK expecting energy prices to go up before Nordstream was taken down?17 July 2018 - Boris Johnson wrote that he feels that Nord Stream 2 is divisive and could leave the EU’s supply reliant on “a malign Russian state”.If it comes on stream, Nord Stream 2 will provide 12% of the EU’s energy demand. On the face of it, that sounds like good news, but it will remove about $1.8 billion of transit fees that currently benefit the Ukrainian economy, from the Progress and Trans-Siberian pipeline systems.
Yes, Russia may have its stockpile of nuclear weapons and its exports of oil and gas, but its economy is not in good shape and is no larger than that of Spain, despite Russia’s geographical mass. Moscow is therefore all too aware of its reliance on an uninterrupted revenue stream from its gas exports.
Set against the 2019 completion date for the Nord Stream 2 project, the time for German platitudes and, dare I say it, the UK’s apparent unwillingness to come to a firm and fixed view on Nord Stream 2, has to end.I know that several EU countries have a financial stake in the pipeline—or, at least, companies from countries including France, Austria, the Netherlands, and Germany. I also acknowledge that British interests are at stake.
[MRT: Which interests are affected?]
However, there is always a political risk with international and large-scale energy projects. My primary concern is not the potential commercial losses for those private companies, or even the success—or lack of success—of former German Chancellors in their deal making, but the strategic interests of the United Kingdom and our friends and allies. That is why I welcome Chancellor Merkel’s recent comments at the EU-Ukraine summit, at which she said “it is not just an economic issue…there are also political considerations”.
[MRT: This statement is rather alarming, not being concerned about losses of private companies? Does this mean the decision has been made that NS1, NS2 were targets already in 2018?]
The EU could also do more to ensure the diversification of its energy supplies. For example, it could get on with building liquefied natural gas storage areas in Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia and other EU countries. Europe is perhaps also over-reliant on gas from the middle east. Perhaps it is time to look westwards across the Atlantic for a more secure and reliable energy partner.
[MRT: This is exactly what happened after Nordstream pipelines were blown up - a switch to US LNG which was sent through UK´s LNG hubs because continental Europe preferred piped gas.]
“Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are all deeply value-destructive projects that will eat up almost half of Gazprom’s investments over the next five years. They are commonly perceived as being foisted on the company by the government pursuing a geopolitical agenda.”
[MRT: So hitting on the Nordstream is about hitting on Russian income from hydrocarbons by destroying 5 years of Gaprom´s investment.]
16 Nov 2021 - EU ultimatum! Boris warns bloc must chose Russian gas pipeline or 'stick up for Ukraine'
[MRT: How can the UK make such interference statements into foreign policy of Germany? After Brexit the UK was not even part of EU´s security, strategy..]
30 Jan 2022 - Nord Stream2 stops! Liz Truss issues ultimatum to Germany 'we cannot allow that to happen'
[MRT: Two ultimatums in a short span hints to seriousness of the situation for the UK.]
31 Jan 2022 - I had a discussion with my colleague Foreign Minister Baerbock
...last week about precisely this issue, and I welcome the statements from her and Chancellor Scholz about Nord Stream 2, in which they were very clear that it will not go ahead in the event of a Russian incursion. We do need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. I welcome the work that the United States is doing to look at how supplies can be augmented, and we are working with partners across the middle east. This is a strategic issue for Europe and we do need to reduce dependence on Russian gas—there is no doubt about it.
[MRT. So Truss wants to go further than just sanctions.]
I have been very clear about our position on Nord Stream 2. More broadly, we need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. On the discussions taking place in various formats, we cannot have a situation in which Russian aggression is rewarded in any way. It has no auspices over Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we are very clear on that. What we are working on, and what tomorrow’s meeting of Foreign Ministers is about, is making sure that we are co-ordinating our positions across NATO, and we are very clear on those red lines.
13 March 2022 - Rishi Sunak urges UK companies to stop investing in Russia
[M: Note this post: 051 - Rishi Sunak´s 2017 report about (legal) vulnerability of subsea internet cables. Is there a connection?]
9 Aug 2022 - Johnson ‘absolutely certain’ next PM will offer more help on paying bills
[M: Was the fate of Nordstream already decided? Knocking out Russian energy would bring energy prices up which in turn could help UK to invest in unprofitable wind, solar and utilize its LNG to send extra gas to energy starved EU taking in fees. His statement could also mean low income families will get some support to mitigate this expected increase.]
26 Aug 2022 - Energy price cap: What Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak have promised
3 Sept 2022 - Zelensky exclusive: Threat from ‘Putin the Nazi’ outweighs pain of rising energy bills
The Ukrainian leader praises Boris Johnson, criticises Macron and Scholz and says western cost of living fears are ‘incomparable’ with the threat from Russia.
[MRT: Is the plan o knock out Nordstream already in place and Zelenski is "in the know"?]
Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to talk about Boris Johnson in the past tense.
Under Johnson, Britain was one of the first nations to donate weapons to Ukraine as the countdown to the Russian invasion began last winter. While nervous European leaders dawdled, Johnson led the pack..
6 Sept 2022 - 'As strong as the storm will be, Britain is stronger'
[MRT: In just 3 weeks Nordstream is blown up]
6 Sept 2022 - Truss Drafts £130 Billion Plan to Freeze UK Energy Bills
[MRT: Exactly as BoJo predicted. Could be in preparation to the vent where energy prices may get higher.]
6 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss delivered her first speech as British prime minister on Tuesday after being formally invited by Queen Elizabeth II to form a government.
"I am confident that together we can ride out the storm"
[MRT: The frequency of statements about "disruptive external event" has increased. Note this post: 202 - Kwasi Kwarteng The -1 Day: "...if there is an exogenous, extreme event..."]
Liz Truss delivered her first speech as British prime minister on Tuesday after being formally invited by Queen Elizabeth II to form a government.
The new prime minister said her top priorities are to cut taxes, boost energy security and improve the country's health care system.
"We shouldn't be daunted by the challenges we face," she said outside No. 10 Downing Street. "As strong as the storm may be, I know that the British people are stronger. Our country was built by people who get things done. We have huge reserves of talent, of energy and determination. I am confident that together we can ride out the storm."
8 Sept 2022 - New British PM Liz Truss announces a cap on energy bills to combat cost-of-living crisis
10 Sept 2022 - Portrait of the week: Truss in, Johnson out and Nord Stream 1 off
Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister, said in a speech outside 10 Downing Street: ‘Boris Johnson delivered Brexit, the Covid vaccine and stood up to Russian aggression. History will see him as a hugely consequential prime minister.’ For her part: ‘I am confident that together we can ride out the storm.’12 Sept 2022 - Truss fixes UK energy prices for two years, at great cost
[MRT: What is the rationale for doing this and why 2 years?]
19 Sept 2022 - Liz Truss: Soaring energy prices are a “price worth paying”
The Prime Minister highlighted the role of the ‘energy price guarantee’ scheme as pressure from struggling businesses mount
Hours after the end of the period of national mourning, Liz Truss said that high energy bills are a “price worth paying” to boost the UK’s energy security.Liz Truss told reporters during her trip to the United Nations general assembly in New York: “The point I am making is that it’s a price worth paying for Britain because our long-term security is paramount.”
[MRT: Note BoJo´s previous statement that Nordstream effects greatly UK´s own security so he and Truss even give ultimatums to Germany - the main European ally where Nordstream exits to]
20 Sept 2022 - Prime Minister Liz Truss announces Energy Price Guarantee plan to combat rising electricity and gas bills
[MRT: Just a week before Nordstream is blown up.]
20 Sept 2022 - Rising energy bills ‘price worth paying’ for Ukraine support, says Liz Truss
[MRT: Is this some kind of double-speak to say that Nordstream will be blown up without saying it?]
II. Is this official UN announcement that the UK is taking down Nordstream?
21 Sept 2022 - UK Prime Minister Truss addresses the United Nations General Assembly (transcript here)
01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience.""We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad.""The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition.
We must do this together."
We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.
08:30 min: "The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes.The resolute international response to Ukraine has shown how we can deliver decisive collective action.The response has been built on partnerships and alliances and also on being prepared to use new instruments – unprecedented sanctions, diplomatic action, and rapid military support.There has been a strength of collective purpose – we have met many times, spoken many times on the phone, we have made things happen.Now we must use these instruments in a more systematic way to push back on the economic aggression of authoritarian regimes.The G7 and our like-minded partners should act as an economic NATO, collectively defending our prosperity.If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.
12:00 min "In all these areas, on all of the fronts, the time to act is now. This is a decisive moment in our history, in the history of this organization and in the history of freedom...
The story of 2022 could have been that of an authoritarian state rolling its tanks over the border of a peaceful neighbour and subjugating its people.
Instead, it is the story of freedom fighting back.
In the face of rising aggression we have shown we have the power to act and the resolve to see it through.
But this cannot be a one-off.
This must be a new era in which we commit to ourselves, our citizens, and this institution that we will do whatever it takes – whatever it takes to deliver for our people and defend our values."
Britain’s commitment to this is total.
We will be a dynamic, reliable and trustworthy partner.
[MRT: What is this? A confession? A warning to allies "we were upfront announcement our intentions and plans - why do you act so surprised?" kind of message inserted for these who carefully listen? Some kind of bragging or else?]
CONCLUSION/SUMMARY:
- Was the UK involved in Nordstream affair? Possibly - see here.
- Was the UK preparing for a case where Russian hydrocarbons would be taken out off the market? Definitely. See here.
- That is what the official investigation will find out (hopefully).
- The issue is whether results could be announced as there are serious security implications for Europe and UK - see here.
- Was the saboteur calculating with this legal stalemate to : happen? See here.
SUM
Weather forecast is based on data. What Data did UK have to put real long term investment to position themselves for time that energy price will be long term high?
The UK became after 44 years net energy exporter in 4/2022.*
There is a possibility that this could be a strong economical motive post Brexit. See more.
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