There were warnings
The warning was not specific, the officials said, and they declined to say whether Russia was identified as a possible attacker.
The C.I.A. issued a vague warning in June to a number of European nations, including Germany, that the two Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia could be targeted in forthcoming attacks, three senior officials familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.
[MRT: The warning was most likely very specific, warnings are exact and done in a clear message. Also the mumber of European countries = Nordstream shareholders = GER+AUT, NED, FRA but not RU]
The German publication Der Spiegel was the first to report that the U.S. had provided what intelligence officials call “strategic warning” of a possible attack — a warning that came with no specifics about the likely time or place or manner of a potential strike.
June 2022 - IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS - Security threats to undersea communications cables and infrastructure – consequences for the EU[MRT: Journalists should be asking for exactly details on this warning(s) - date, place, means. Considering this was done in June and the UK is the prime suspect it could be that Johnson has given orders for the mission to proceed, it is not clear if these included the final "GO AHEAD". It is possible that there was some trigger for the mission to proceed hence the warning.]
On 20 Sept 2022 Readout of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl's Virtual Meeting With German Federal Ministry of Defence Political Director Dr. Jasper Wieck
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl virtually met with German Federal Ministry of Defence Political Director Dr. Jasper Wieck today to reaffirm the U.S.-Germany defense relationship.
The two leaders exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine, and discussed other regional issues of shared interest between Allies. They also discussed NATO priorities and work plans for the coming months. Wieck and Kahl expressed their commitment to deepening the U.S.-Germany defense and security relationship.
28 Sept 2022 - Denmark was not warned about possible threats to the Nord Stream pipelines
The German government was allegedly warned several times about the possibility of attacks on the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2. It was not the Danish government, writes NTB.
- Neither I nor the government have been notified. I also don't think that this type of explosion is something that is warned about. Of course, I cannot go into what discussions are in other countries, says Bødskov.
US authorities have reportedly warned Germany several times about the possibility of attacks on underground and submarine gas pipelines.
[MRT: Note the plural]
As recently as a few weeks ago, an inquiry is said to have come from the American intelligence service CIA, according to German Der Spiegel and the American New York Times...
POST ANALYSIS:
Was the warning meant to increase general awareness rather than to provide actionable intelligence for immediate defensive measures? Or was there more in it?
Does this mean that Germany and allies knew about the risk on the key energy infrastructure?
What actions have been taken? Was the US navy presence in the Baltic sea preventing escalation by one of its allies? What information has triggered this warning? In what stage the mission against Nordstream was?
- Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods: To safeguard how the intelligence was gathered, which might include sensitive human sources or technical means that could be compromised if too much detail was shared publicly.
- Hidden Depth in Communication: There might have been more detailed communications between intelligence agencies or governments behind closed doors. Official public statements often differ from the depth of information shared in secure, diplomatic channels.
- Diplomatic Sensitivity: Given the politically sensitive nature of identifying an attacker, particularly if Russia was suspected but not officially named, there might be an inclination to downplay the specificity of the warning to manage international relations.
- Managing Public Perception: Minimizing the known details can prevent panic or unnecessary escalation, especially in situations of geopolitical tension.
It is clear that countries which were warned would be definitely curious about the source of the threat. They would implement at least some Limited Preventive Measures, Increased Surveillance, Security around the Key infrastructure, or Readiness of Response teams, but without knowing specifics like the exact location, method, or timing, extensive or targeted protective measures would be challenging. Knowing the timeframe of the event, between June and the Monday 26th of September data should be looked at whether such measures were implemented, where and how. During the time between mid September and the time of explosions on 26th of September 2022 the whole Baltic sea was lit with different police actions, surveillance flights, naval trainings, anti-terrorist drills against protecting many different assets in the area. (179)
The fact that the attack happened despite the warning suggests either the warning was not heeded sufficiently or that the attackers found a way around whatever measures were implemented. It is also possible that more attempts were done but they were not disclosded due to sensitivity.
Conclusion is that the more unusual activity the more chance that the warning was more than vague!
Conclusion is that the more unusual activity the more chance that the warning was more than vague!
Based on the vast data collected and analysed (206) it is quite clear that the CIA message about warning had several purposes. One of them was to hint that the USA gave long enough pre-warning to allies about the threat and it was their own responsibility to take care of their energy artery, something they failed. The US Navy Task Force left the Baltic sea on 22nd of September, just a four days before explosions. (111) leaving behind one ship (178) to keep an eye on Russian enclave Kaliningrad (175).
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UPDATE: It seems also other states got some warning later on:
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