Friday, November 17, 2023

081 - The United Kingdom's secret war against Russia?

This post explores whether the UK was in 2022 in an undeclared war with RF. 


SUMMARY:

This blog post consolidates reports and statements indicating that the UK has undertaken covert operations against Russia, involving special forces for surveillance and disruption—a trajectory that may be escalating towards an undeclared war, with a notable absence of parliamentary oversight. 


KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Deployment of UK Forces: The UK's Special Forces (UKSF) have been active in numerous nations since 2011, operating with minimal transparency and oversight.

Operational Scope: UKSF activities encompass surveillance, training of foreign forces, and potentially covert actions aimed at Russia and China.

Government Emphasis: The UK government's Integrated Review highlights the importance of covert operations, the role of special forces, and enhancing cyber capabilities to combat adversaries.

Shift to Remote Warfare: Several senior British officials have acknowledged a strategic transition toward "remote warfare" and operations below the threshold of conventional conflict.

Concerns Over Oversight: There is growing concern regarding the lack of parliamentary oversight governing UKSF operations.

Potential Undeclared War: The UK's actions may indicate a trajectory toward an undeclared war with Russia, as suggested by statements from officials such as Ben Wallace.

Nord Stream Pipeline Questions: The blog also raises pressing questions whether these statements and actions underline the UK's involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline incidents.

DATA:

Britain’s Special Forces on service in at least 19 countries since 2011

Executive Summary: This analysis of credible English-language news reports reveals that Britain’s Special Forces, UKSF, have been deployed operationally in at least 19 countries, regions or territories and involved in missions in several others in the past decade, raising questions over the level of transparency and democratic oversight these shadowy units operate under

The UKSF operates distinctively from the rest of the British military, and despite being accountable to the Defence Secretary and Prime Minister, there is no parliamentary oversight or mechanism to conduct retrospective reviews. 

There have been several controversies associated with the UKSF, including assassinations, alleged cover-ups, deniability outsourcing, fighting alongside child soldiers, and friendly fire incidents. Calls have been made for greater transparency and oversight by various MPs and committees.

Mapping of national and international credible newspapers, undertaken by research charity Action on Armed Violence, shows that, since 2011, UK Special Forces (UKSF) have been primed to contact or surveil hostile forces in Algeria, Estonia, France, Iran/Oman (Strait of Hormuz), Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mediterranean (Cyprus), Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen.

There are a further six sites where UKSF have trained foreign forces or where they have based themselves before launching into another country. These are: Burkina Faso, Oman, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Djibouti. There are also another seven locations, not included in the above lists, known to be used by UKSF for their own exercises and engagements. These are: Albania, Falklands, Gibraltar, Belize, Brunei, Malaysia, and Canada, although there are likely to be far more.

In addition, the UKSF operate in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. These four countries are not included.

[MRT: Why not USA?] 

Made up primarily of the SAS, Special Boat Service (SBS) and Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR), and supported by the multi-tiered Special Forces Support Group (SFSG), the UKSF operate distinctly from the rest of the British military and has been bestowed a privileged level of secrecy across all branches of government.

The most senior UKSF officer, the Director Special Forces, is only accountable to the Defence Secretary and the Prime Minister. 

There is no parliamentary oversight. There is not even a mechanism to conduct retrospective reviews, as there is for MI6 via the Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC). 

As Ben Wallace said in September 2020: “They [UKSF] are accountable to me and to the law, and where we see any issues, Ministers will of course intervene.” 

18 July 2018 - Britain Plans to Launch Covert Special Forces Operations Against Russia, China

The British Royal Marines are to take over some of the “traditional” roles of the nation’s special forces units – the Special Air Service (SAS) and Special Boat Service (SBS) – as they are preparing for some new “higher risk” counter-state tasks, Totten said.

The brigadier himself is in command of a 4,000-strong “future commando force” that is about to share the burden of the special forces such as in maritime counterterrorist missions or some “partnered operations” that involve some “higher risks".

The SAS and SBS will apparently hurl all effort into countering “big state adversaries” – Moscow and Beijing, the military official told the paper.

“What we will be able to do is allow [the special forces] to focus on more difficult, more complex, counter-Russia, counter-China [tasks]. It takes real specialist expertise, so we will allow them to have more time and people to address those and we can conduct some of the tasks,” Totten added.

The brigadier did not exactly elaborate on the nature of such future operations.

The nature of the UK Special Forces potential operations against Russia remains unclear, but The Times claims that they could involve surveillance of Russian intelligence and military units in cooperation with British MI6 intelligence.

Earlier, The Guardian reported that the most secretive parts of the British military are likely to get a new focus and a new remit that would involve countering Russia and other state actors through secret missions.

The paper added that the director of the special forces has drawn up a new ‘Special Operations Concept based on the pretense that the nature of modern warfare is changing and unconventional subtle military operations are becoming increasingly common.

The Guardian also cited the Chief of the General Staff General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith who said that peace and war were “two increasingly redundant states”, while accusing “authoritarian regimes” of “exploiting the hybrid space that exists in between".

[Mrt: Resembles Liz Truss statement from 22-09-2022 at the UN:

01:00 min: "...Geopolitics is entering a new era.."

06:00 min: "We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."
 
"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."

"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition. More on this here

Still, Totten’s comments were a rare instance of a British military official openly admitting that London plans to deploy the UK Special Forces on covert missions specifically targeting Russia and China.

 4 February 2021 - THE UNITED KINGDOM DOUBLES DOWN ON COVERT OPERATIONS

Two weeks ago, the British government published its most significant review of defense, security, and foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. It will likely usher in a new era of British covert interventionism.

The 114-page integrated review, titled “Global Britain in a Competitive Age,” emphasizes “Global Britain,” a slogan coined by the governing Conservative Party in the aftermath of the country’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016. The review highlights that the British government wants to maintain global influence, including by tilting toward the geographically distant Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, however, Britain perennially lacks the capabilities sufficient to meet its ambitions—and even more so now given the damage Covid-19 has done to the British economy.

In an attempt to reconcile global ambitions with limited means, the review, together with an accompanying Defence Command Paper, emphasizes secret intelligence, special operations forces, and offensive cyber capabilities. They will be used to disrupt, deter, deny, and degrade Britain’s adversaries. All are tools of force multiplication; the power of the hidden hand will allow Britain to do more with less.

The defense paper emphasizes that special forces will maintain an impressive global reach. They will continue their “precision strike operations,” but will also maintain their equally important function of surveillance in hostile environments—a less glamorous role consistently overlooked in press coverage. Working alongside intelligence agencies in a whole-of-government approach, they will operate below the threshold of conflict to disrupt hostile states.

The paper also establishes new forces capable of special operations, creating a new “Ranger Regiment.” Apparently modeled on the US Army’s Green Berets, it will draw on four battalions and consist of between two thousand and four thousand soldiers. It will allow more British forces to discreetly train, advise, and—most importantly—accompany partners in high-threat environments. According to the review, it will “project UK global influence and pre-empt and deter threats below the threshold of war as well as state aggression. And it will free up tier one special operations forces for more covert surveillance and deniable disruption work. 

The review’s emphasis on intelligence and special forces is consistent with Britain’s traditional approach to covert operations. The United Kingdom has long used the hidden hand to influence events overseas in a deniable or unacknowledged manner. It has done so since before the United States was even created. Indeed, back in the sixteenth century advisors to Queen Elizabeth I talked of “covert meanes” to counter the Spanish.'

[MRT: Did the sinking USS Maine in 1889 create the "special relationship?] 

...Successive UK governments have long sought to disrupt adversaries, dislocate threats at source, and keep enemies—in the words of one recent chief of MI6—“in their half of the pitch.”

The danger here, however, is whether disruption is enough to meet the UK’s objectives. And the reviews are vague on this question. Using covert means, whether through special forces or offensive cyber operations, to disrupt hostile states will not solve the UK’s foreign policy problems

[MRT: So what about a disruption to enforce certain chain of events then? A Thought.] 

And while the emphasis throughout the review on support for NATO allies makes sense, the review does not clearly define “partners.” In an accompanying press release, the Chief of the General Staff offered only “regular and irregular partners and proxies.”  

11 Oct 2021 - Global Britain, Global Army? The Review and Land Warfare

This essay was first published in October 2021, in the second volume of the Centre for Defence Studies series on The Integrated Review in Context: Defence and Security in Focus.

This article examines the implications of the United Kingdom government’s 2021 policy paper, Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, which lays out the Boris Johnson government’s external policy aims for the 2020s, the Ministry of Defence Command Paper, Defence in a Competitive Age which accompanied it and the British Army paper Future Soldier: Transforming the British Army which followed shortly afterwards. It focuses on what these implications might be for Britain’s land warfare capabilities, in particular the British Army and the Royal Marines, and asks how well-prepared they might be for what the Integrated Review expects of them. This matters for a range of reasons. The Integrated Review and Command Paper identify, and, indeed, at times centre on the most ‘acute threat’ to the UK and Europe as coming from Russia.

There is a growing tendency by Western powers to apply military force ‘remotely’ or ‘discreetly’. Risk-aversion among the Western political class and distrust of politicians among the voting public following the debacles of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya combine with shrinking defence budgets to incentivise Western governments to wage war via ‘remote’ means – airpower, Special Forces and proxy local forces, all having limited physical and political footprint – rather than via large numbers of ‘boots on the ground’ in theatre. This is traceable to President Obama’s replacement of the Bush administration’s strategy in the Global War on Terror of ‘regime change’ in countries designated by the US as supporting jihadi terrorists with one based on strikes against high-value targets – terrorist leaders and facilitators – by crewed aircraft, Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVS) and Special Forces alongside generous material support for local actors fighting against terrorist groups and regimes likely to support them. The UK has followed suit closely as demonstrated by its actions in Libya in 2011 and Syria since 2014. The Chief of the General Staff – official head of the British Army – General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith commented in May 2021 that this ‘form of remote warfare has almost become our house style.’..

As Prime Minister Boris Johnson lays out in his introduction: ‘We will play a more active part in sustaining an international order in which open societies and economies continue to flourish and the benefits of prosperity are shared through free trade and global growth’. The Review states explicitly it ‘signals a change of approach’ away from defending the post Cold War rules-based international order towards active competition in a world in which the values Mr Johnson outlines are under challenge from authoritarian peer competitors and in which the UK must try to shape the situation rather than just stabilise it...

Where there is an immediate threat, British forces will engage in ‘campaigning’, an apparently open-ended and flexible set of actions ranging from aggressive deterrence to countering subversive activity to all-out warfighting and taking place across the five ‘domains’ of land, sea, air, space and cyberspace.

[MRT: Was this where NOR blew a whistle? ] 

One way in which this might be done is through ‘remote warfare.’ The Command Paper states clearly there will be a leading role in ‘Global Britain’ for UK Special  Forces (UKSF), the tri-service command incorporating the UK’s ‘Tier One’ assets, the Army’s 22 Special Air Service Regiment (22 SAS) the Royal Marines’ Special Boat Service (SBS), The Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR), the Special Forces Support Group formed from First Battalion, The Parachute Regiment (SFSG) and their support elements. 

Indeed, ‘special operations’ will, apparently, expand with the re-constituting and re-tasking of some existing units who will receive arresting new titles reflecting their new status. A new Army Special Operations Brigade will: ‘conduct special operations to train, advise and accompany partners in high threat environments….[and] project UK global influence and pre-empt and deter threats below the threshold of war as well as state aggression.’

19 May 2021 - First Sea Lord Sea Power Conference Speech

Similarly, speaking on the flight deck of HMS TAMAR in London in September our Secretary of State said “the global picture has changed … the static concept of war versus peace no longer applies as we are contested on either side of the threshold of armed conflict on a regular basis … Our Armed Forces must be more forward-deployed, deterring Russian activity in Europe, combating terror in the Middle East and the Sahel and countering Chinese activity in the Asia Pacific”.

7 Dec 2021 - Admiral Sir Tony Radakin KCB ADC, Chief of the Defence Staff Speech to the Royal United Services Institute

But the simple demarcation of peace and war is less prevalent today. Our forces need to be out in the world supporting British interests, deterring and shaping on a continuous basis.

This is what our politicians demand, and it gets after the frustrations felt by our people when they find themselves stuck in barracks or delayed by training or equipment when they should be deployed as ambassadors for Global Britain – shaping, training and influencing.Winning the war before the war…’ as my French opposite number calls it.

There are risks with a shift from ‘contingent’ to ‘active and engaged’. But it makes us potentially a much stronger contributor to the National Security Architecture, to be harnessed all the time rather than ‘just’ called for in a crisis. And there are opportunities too, through joint projects and defence sales as well as supporting communities at home.

The fourth potential priority is the need to be far more lethal. We have to up the punch we bring across all domains. Increasingly, the need is for ‘high impact and low footprint’ operations. That is not to be interpreted as everything will become ‘SF-tastic’. But it is to recognise that our aim must be to provide the right military tool, in the right place at the right time for just as long as it takes to complete a task.

I want to conclude by reflecting what a pivotal time this is for Defence.

We are returning to a more classical model of persistent inter-state competition.

8 Jan 2022 - Chief of Defence Staff: Russia cutting underwater cables could be 'an act of war'

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said underwater cables that transmit internet data are "the world's real information system", adding any attempt to damage them could be "an act of war".

Speaking to the Times in his first interview as head of the UK's Armed Forces, Admiral Radakin, the former Royal Navy chief, said there has been a "phenomenal increase in Russian submarine and underwater activity over the last 20 years".

6 Feb 2022Britain sent special forces to Ukraine

The United Kingdom sent dozens of special forces to Ukraine amid fears of Russian invasion.

More than 100 British elite troops have been sent to Ukraine as military advisors. Soldiers from SAS (Special Air Service), SBS (Special Boat Service), Special Reconnaissance Regiment and Special Forces Support Group deployed to Ukraine last week.

7 Feb 2022 - UK sends more than 100 SAS and SBS special forces advisors to Kiev as more than 1,000 elite US troops arrive in Poland'

The UK has sent more than 100 special forces advisors to Kiev to train Ukrainian soldiers as tensions reach boiling point over fears of a Russian invasion.

8 Feb 2022 - EXU-1, FBI Host Maritime Post-Blast Investigation Course at NAS Key West 

One such briefing given by U.K. Royal Navy DTXG Commanding Officer Cdr. Sean Heaton, who described the investigation of a series of underwater bombings to oil tankers transiting near the Strait of Hormuz in 2019. Heaton — who was recognized in 2020 as a Member of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (MBE) after overseeing the safe disposal of a 500-pound World War II era Luftwaffe bomb found at London’s King George V Docks — discussed how the investigation into these series of bombings required not just his technical training as an EOD officer, but the necessary crime scene investigation techniques to collect evidence, interview witnesses, and make logical deductions into who and what was responsible for the attacks.

Cdr. Heaton also stressed the collaboration with EXU-1 as a means of success and excellence for both countries, since exploiting these scenarios in the same way allows for good information to be gained and shared.

“In terms of our outlook on current geopolitical events, what helps is having both of our groups looking at the same problem sets. Working together, information exchange is quite easy and prevents numerous delays. We are often in the same places and operating jointly, so our partnership constantly sharpens our skillsets and allows us to be more prepared,” he said. “Different events tie into intelligence gathering which we can all share with each other. That is critical because it allows us to be on the same page with one another before conflict happens. So when conflict does happen, we are all prepared.” 

11 Feb 2022 - Defence Secretary meets Russian counterpart in Moscow

The Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace MP, today (11 February) held talks with the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergey Shoygu.

Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin also met his counterpart, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov

Delta & Echo Squadron - globally deploys dedicated and motivated Clearance Divers 

armed with world class expeditionary diving and explosive ordnance capabilities to defeat and exploit complex conventional and improvised threats.

23 Feb 2022 - Ukraine crisis: Putin has gone 'full tonto' and

...UK military can 'kick Russia's backside', defence sec says Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells military personnel that Vladimir Putin has gone "full tonto" over Ukraine and left himself with "no friends". The British army "kicked the backside of Tsar Nicholas I in 1853 in Crimea", he adds, and "can always do it again". (video)

25 Feb 2022 - Britain will lead by example in standing up to Vladimir Putin: article by Liz Truss

With so much at stake, the United Kingdom is leading the charge to rally international support for Ukraine and to respond alongside our allies with strength. That’s why we have been at the forefront in supplying defensive weapons and economic support to Ukraine. We have also been consistent in calling out Russian disinformation and the false flag operations aimed at creating a pretext for invasion.

Yesterday, I summoned the Russian ambassador to the Foreign Office, where I made clear that he should be ashamed and Russia had lost its last shred of credibility within the international community. Shortly, I will embark on a round of shuttle diplomacy across Europe and the United States to galvanise a united, decisive and determined response to this aggression.

The UK is proud to lead by example. We warned repeatedly alongside our allies that any further invasion would incur massive consequences with severe costs...

The Kremlin is leading the Russian people into a quagmire and turning Russia into a global pariah. This is the moment to take a hard-headed approach, which means being ready to accept short-term pain for long-term gain – in the knowledge that the pain felt by Putin will be exponentially higher. German Chancellor Scholz has recognised how vital this is by suspending Nord Stream 2, as Europe moves to cut its dependence on Russian gas.

[MRT: Looks like the mission has been studied but a date has not been set, yet. This rethoric syncs with the Truss  infamous UN talk about ] 

1 March 2022 - Royal Navy divers transform to create new elite mission teams

Operating under the new banner of the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) – which replaces the long-standing Fleet Diving Squadron – the expert frogmen/bomb disposal experts aim to do more and be more agile, while using the latest tech, in order to keep the Navy’s fleet and the public safe, globally.

10 March 2022Royal Navy’s DTXG: Revolutionizing Clearance Divers’ Capabilities7

In what Royal Navy clearance divers describe as their biggest shake-up since 1996, the long-standing Fleet Diving Squadron has been reshaped into small, elite mission teams said to be better equipped to deal with the latest threats. They are now called the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG).

Based in Portsmouth, Plymouth and Faslane, RN divers’ tasks include explosive disposal of historic ordnance and rendering improvised explosive devices safe in the UK, as well as clearing sea mines and deterring terrorists overseas. 

The DTXG’s explosives exploitation experts are Echo Squadron. Lt-Commander Tom Forbes said of his unit: “This transformation means we can focus our attention on becoming experts in the field of maritime exploitation of conventional and improvised explosive devises and munitions – a capability that doesn’t exist anywhere else across UK defence.

17 March 2022 - Major Overhaul, British Royal Navy Creates New Navy Elite Diving Team

The Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) is based in Portsmouth and Faslane, the UK's Royal Navy Divers

19 March 2022 - Boris Johnson tells The Economist about his anti-Russia coalition

The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force is moving quickly against Russia

JEF largely unknown outside defence circles, was established a decade ago as a high-readiness force focused on the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea regions (see map for its members). Unlike NATO, it does not need internal consensus to deploy troops in a crisis: Britain, the “framework” nation, could launch operations with one or more partners. As one British officer puts it: “The JEF can act while NATO is thinking.” 

April - October 2022 - Navy News (publication access currently limited)

1 April 2021- Submarines are operating secretly in Baltic sea.

  

15 April 2022 - The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

Admiral Sir Antony David Radakin, KCB, ADC, Chief of the Defence Staff
JEF recognises that the character of warfare has evolved, and the distinction between peace and war is not as clear as it once was.

The grey area this creates has allowed our adversaries to develop new ways of threatening us, and we recognise the need to counter this by protecting, engaging and constraining the threat.

We therefore see advantage in the JEF being able to take collective action below the traditional threshold of conflict, if necessary, before NATO declares Article V, in a complementary capacity to NATO.

[Mrt: Nordstreamis a UK´s Public enemy #1. Data about JEF here

11 April 2022 - Royal Navy completes largest Arctic defence exercise since the Cold War

The fortnight-long exercise – on top of several months of preparatory training both in the UK and Arctic – allowed the Royal Navy to demonstrate some of its unique capabilities, from launching commando raids from submarines to operating a fifth-generation aircraft carrier in sub-zero conditions for the first time.

[MRT: Plural] 

29 April 2022 - First British Nuclear Submarine Docking in Tromsø

For the past month, the HMS Ambush has largely operated in Norwegian waters, the British Navy writes.

During Cold Response 2022, the HMS Ambush and five other British marine vessels practiced operating in cold, Arctic waters in Northern Norway, according to the British MoD.

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace (Conservatives) visited Bardufoss, Norway during the exercise and there presented a new British defense strategy for the Arctic region.

After the exercise, the HMS Ambush appears to have continued its winter training in the North, just like forces from the US Marine Corps.

The American amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge was docked at Grøtsund during Easter. This is allegedly the largest warship ever to have docked in Tromsø.

9 June 2022 - Joint Force Headquarters, 

20 June 2022 - European Defence Agency’s C-IED Exercise BISON COUNTER
 
Commander Sean Heaton, commanding officer of DTXG, said: “The relevance of what the Royal Navy and our NATO partners have been doing here in Lithuania, could not be clearer.

“Putting Royal Navy Bomb and Mine Disposal Divers from the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group, through these challenging scenarios ensures we are operationally prepared, and able to respond with agility to any threat to UK and NATO interests.”

6 Sept 2022Cabinet reshuffle: The ministers with links to the military

A number of MPs in the cabinet have served in the military - Forces News takes a closer look.

Ben WallaceFormer British Army officer Ben Wallace is staying on as Defence Secretary

James HeappeyAnother former British Army officer is James Heappey in the cabinet is James Heappey.

James CleverlyIn one of the changes to the leadership team, British Army reservist James Cleverly is appointed the new Foreign Secretary.

Penny MordauntFormer Defence Secretary, and Tory leadership candidate this year, Penny Mordaunt is the new Leader of the Commons.

Tom TugendhatAnother Conservative leadership candidate, Afghanistan veteran and Army reservist Tom Tugendhat is Minister for Security.

23 Sept 2022 - Truss axes National security council, sparking ‘talking-shop’ concerns

[MRT Post with details here]

26 Sept 2022 - SBS mentors Kyiv's special operations in the Black Sea

The highly secretive British Special Boat Service is training operatives from Ukraine's 73rd Naval Centre of Special Operations, which carries out special missions for the GUR in the Black Sea.

26 Sept 2022 - UK, Russian defence officials meet in London;

        26 Sep 2022 - 19:01 (19:01 GMT)

The UK’s chief of defence staff has held talks with the Russian defence attaché at the Ministry of Defence in London.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin and Colonel Maxim Elovik met as part of ongoing efforts to “strengthen military to military channels of communication” with Russia.

26 Sept 2022 -  Russian submarines: Threats and opportunities for Britain

While Moscow stumbles in its imperialist war against Ukraine, it continues to develop and deploy assets like the Belgorod and engage in a level of undersea activity not seen since the end of the Soviet Union.

This danger is one that Britain has well recognised. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the current Chief of Defence Staff, stated that such interference by Russia would be tantamount to an act of war.

October 2022 - UK Defense minister for Logistics visiting Faslane/Clyde submarine base

Ukraine’s conflict with Russia is as much our war as it is theirs, the UK’s minister for defence procurement has said.

[M: Sounds to me that he says UK is in undercover undeclared war with Russia]

Alec Shelbrooke, who was appointed to the role last month, insisted the two countries are working together “to fight back against a fascist dictatorship”.

Speaking to the PA news agency, Mr Shelbrooke said: “This is our war as much as it is Ukraine’s war."

“We are seeing that in terms of fuel prices, in terms of food, in terms of fertilisers, but fundamentally in terms of freedom and democracy.

“It won’t end if we were to withdraw from Ukraine.

That would embolden Russia, it would embolden Putin, it would be a direct threat to Nato, which we are absolutely crystal clear that any invasion of Nato territory triggers Article 5."

“Fundamentally, this is a fight against a fascist dictatorship.”

[Mrt: More details here]

1 Oct 2022 - Putin could launch attacks on West in SPACE says head of Britain's armed forces Admiral Sir Tony Radakin

Sir Tony Radakin said Russia would be heavily targeted by Western allies it would garner a strong response and be hurt significantly. 

He argued the UK had the resolve to see the crisis through and overcome the impending threats of Russian aggression. 

The 56-year-old went on to argue that Putin did not want war with NATO.

At the same time the united front shown by the Western powers has been a huge incentive for the people of Ukraine. 

European leaders believe both explosions were an intentional act carried out on the Kremlin's orders 

Sir Tony declined to blame Russia but said they had the capabilities to damage the Continent and Ukraine on information battles.


3 Oct 2022 - Sir Tony Radakin said: ‘Russia has the ability to disrupt other areas in addition to what it’s doing in Ukraine, in energy and in these diplomatic battles.

The concern from the Royal United Services Institute is that the destruction of satellites could damage things like military GPS systems. 


I had an important call with Norway’s Foreign Minister following last week’s explosions along the Nordstream gas pipelines. The UK and Norway will continue to work together to strengthen Europe's energy resilience. 🇬🇧 🇳🇴

18 Oct 2022 - What Happened In Washington Between The UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace And NSA Jake Sullivan?

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met today in Washington with the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, the White House confirmed.

Secretary Wallace flew out of the UK yesterday on short notice amid growing concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin may act on his threats to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said Wallace was meeting with the US officials for “the sort of conversations that [are] beyond belief really, the fact we are at a time when these sorts of conversations are necessary.” 

[MRT: Did James Heapey learn about NOrdstream and the UK involvement or other UK plans?] 

President Joe Biden has warned recently that the world is closer to Armageddon than ever since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going,” said Biden.

[MRT: The question remains whether it was the UBritain who was prepared to strike Russia? Was this the "WARNING" that NOR brought to the USA on  19-09-2022???]

18 Oct 2022 -  - Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on October 18, 2022.

19 Oct 2022 - Chief of the Defence Staff Lord Mayor of London Defence & Security Lecture

Our approach has tended to reflect the British Way of Warfare, as described by the military theorist Sir Basil Liddell Hart almost a century ago:

The belief that Britain is an expeditionary rather than a continental power.

That our interests are best served by the indirect application of power – particularly economic power - by, with and through our partners.

And that we focus to ensure we provide disproportionate effect and to achieve operational advantage.

19 Oct 2022 - Good meeting with UK Defense Secretary  @BWallaceMP  on Monday 

to discuss support for Ukraine and the serious security threat Russia poses to Europe, the United States, and the world. We are committed to standing with Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. 

20 Oct 2022 - UK - Volume 824: debated on Thursday 20 October 2022

We read of the Defence Secretary’s recent visit to Washington, which was organised so quickly that he had to miss a Select Committee meeting at the last minute, to discuss, according to Secretary Blinken, support for Ukraine and the serious security threat that Russia poses to the Europe, the US and the world. What threats were discussed? What was the purpose of this last-minute meeting?

20 Oct 2022 - Liz Truss resigns 

Truss fall: British prime minister announces resignation after just 6 weeks

2 November 2022 - video about UK - US relationship

V-I-D-OE-O Wednesday 2 November 2022 Meeting started at 2.35pm, ended 4.38pm

 14:46 min Special forces oversight: "no"

The transcript is here. ... 16:17:14

3 Nov 2022 - UK’s Defence Committee refused access to UK Special Forces in heated debate with Defence Minister

In a British Parliamentary Deference Select Committee on the 2nd November, 2022, the UK Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace, has been challenged for his failure to permit members of the Defence Select Committee access to UK Special Forces.

In a heated exchanged, the Committee chair, Tobias Ellwood MP said that the UK Special Forces were not the best in the world ‘about scrutiny’, and that the Special Forces – including units such as the Special Air Service (SAS) and Special Boat Services (SBS) – were “not above scrutiny.”

When asked if the Ministry of Defence could facilitate a visit to Hereford, home of the SAS, the Deference Minister said “no” and went on to argue that “this committee does not have oversight of Special Forces and its operations.

The chair of the Defence Committee disagreed, saying: “I’m sorry, we have oversight of the Armed Forces in the UK Defence.

Mr Wallace then said the Special Forces were very busy in operational work. 

*** 

22 June 2023 - Britain’s fury with US as Joe Biden ‘blocks’ Ben Wallace for Nato chief

Minister’s ambition to be the alliance’s next secretary-general thwarted as Washington reportedly refuses to endorse his candidacy

1 Sept 2023 - Ben Wallace's parting words as resigning British defense secretary: 'That's all folks!' 

Putting his money where his mouth is, Ben Wallace, the British secretary of state for defense, officially resigned on Thursday, August 31. A supporter of "Remain" in the 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union, he was nevertheless among Boris Johnson's loyalists. He had announced his intention to leave in July, citing his desire, at 53, to devote more time to his family. He is expected to finish his term as Westminster MP but has said he will not stand for re-election to Parliament in 2024.

"That's all folks! Been a privilege to serve this great nation,"


***

***
Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

080 - Who hasn't heard of Mortymer's Nordstream hypothesis yet?




Whom I informed? Well,... Everybody,...

The Hall-of-Fame & Wall-of-shame (interactive): 

II. Insurance companies

III. Newspapers & Journalists

IV. Non-EUropean Ministries of Foreign affairs

Many other people were informed:

On the top of these there is a vast amount of accounts which totally ignored my calls to have a look at the data I have found and asked for help to examine, interpret, and ask questions.

 Who does not know yet? 

The public.

Who knows?

Almost everybody who must know. Some KNEW beforehand, I explored this and described the evidence. It was an issue of national security to know, would Russia retaliate? All intelligence and counterintelligence organizations dropped all work and focused on this one main security issue... Was the war starting? So yes, all knew and on 06 Oct 2022 EU heads jointly decided to keep the information off the public eyes. 

Questions were asked:

I have created and sent a 101 pcs list of questions for journalists.


Is WaPo compromised? 

I asked Washington Post few days before they released their story about the Ukrainian involvement:

This is the author of the WaPo article - she is located in Kiev.
The WaPo article is lacking sources for her extraordinary claim.

Compare to:

8 March 2023 - German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned...

... against reaching premature conclusions on who was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, suggesting the attack could also have been a ‘false flag’ operation to blame Ukraine


Mortymer´s investigation:

The "Nordstream affair" is a mission BY GOVERNMENT - SUSPECTS are politicians.

Here is the list of ALL SUSEPCTS:

All government officials of NATO states and some - here

The Nordstream mission was just the final hot part done by employees of the given government. They did their job. Do not blame them. Go after those government officials.  

The story has two parts:

1. What politicians did

2. What happened in Baltic Sea

 

SUMMARY

My set of data based working hypothesis of events near Bornholm and elsewhere:

- My hypothesis, the set of data I collected, points to the UK as a single rogue actor - this post describes the data processing, this"the criminal profiling" and other aspects of the investigation.  

- Plans were very long term, they can be traced to March 2021 and earlier.

- The main root-case was the Brexit and the situation the UK found itself in. Leaving the EU the UK lost all legal ways how to stop Nordstream. What was left was a direct or indirect kinetic hit. 

- The UK government changed its strategies to align with the plan in which the Nordstream would be somehow cancelled. The mission started to take shape slowly, gradually

- The UK government started to take a lead in anti-Nordstream motion exactly as announced in March 2021   

- The UK tried to implement Global Britain policy but ultimately failed

- The UK started to prepare for the event contacting alternative suppliers before the event 

- The UK started to prepare for the event warning own companies to pull out of Russia  

- The UK started to prepare for the event warning an energy storm is coming 

- The UK changed its security structures just a few days before the event 

- A submarine was operating in the area already in spring 2022 collecting data

- The sub was detected by the USA and GER in June, even RU was looking into it

- The Baltops exercise could not be the time of explosives planting. Gazprom run yearly internal and external checks of pipelines after Baltops ended. Independent companies did it.    

- The June CIA strategic warning was real, more details of the mission were known to the USA and NS Shareholders than what was shared with public. The dating for first part of September was likely to be known to be in first half of September as many exercises were planned for that period.  [Makes sense that Hersh story is a deflection from September]

- Two legal battles over Nordstream (Unbounding and OutOfBankruptcy postponement for NS2) sealed the fate of Nordstream projects.  

- Somehow USA knew it could happen but could not stop it. It did not agree with it and naturally could not openly say what UK plans were. The USA was against overdependency of its main European ally GER on NS2 but USA was not against NS1 [The NS1 was primary target].

- The UK sub enters Baltic Sea after BoJo visits Faslane at the end of August, mission is launched.

- There is a PM change in the UK BoJo -> Truss, and Queen dies. Truss re-signs the mission as PM. Her region is centered around the success of the mission.

- The mission got into delay due to high naval activity in the Baltic sea. Originally planting should happen on 14-15th (end of Northern coasts) - 22nd (Truss at the UN)

- Truss states at the UN that they are "cancelling power and pipelines of authoritative regimes" on 22nd September not knowing the planting was delayed. After NOR blew the whistle on 15-09-2022 and her UN speech the UK - USA experiences Special relationship split 

- The Andromeda was a safety backup (with doctor) for sailors would the mission experience some unexpected change of plans, the plan was to be in the area around 15th of September.

- The mission was executed likely by RN S120 Ambush + Chalfont Bay + Mk11 (or similar)

- The submarine brought divers with the minisub to the northern location but due to NOR whistleblowing on 15 - 19 Sept it got delayed.

- Andromeda passed the Bornholm on 15th as agreed but could not stay not the area for too long. 

- The USA informs its allies on 22-09-2022 that they have evaluated the situation and it is too hot for their own security, the nuclear exchange could not be ruled out, leaves Baltic Sea.

- SWE and later DK send into the area 2 ships, the prime target (two lines of NS1) are mined, the perpetrator is disturbed, SWE and DK get hydroacoustic record of the sub/minisub. 


079 - UK: Nord Stream 2 Pipeline - Volume 690: debated on Wednesday 10 March 2021




Volume 690: debated on Wednesday 10 March 2021



- VIDEO


7.06 pm

Daniel Kawczynski 
(Shrewsbury and Atcham) (Con)

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The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a gas pipeline being constructed on the bottom of the Baltic sea between Russia and Germany. It is bypassing all of our allies in central and eastern Europe, fellow NATO partners that have in the past been put under the most extraordinary pressure by the Russians over energy supplies. That is why I am so concerned about this project for the security of NATO and our responsibilities to our allies in central and eastern Europe.

Although it is not possible for many Members of Parliament to be in the Chamber this evening, we have written to the Prime Minister in the past. Over 35 Conservative Members of Parliament have co-signed a letter on this issue to the Prime Minister, and there are many more in other parties who also have grave concerns about this project.

I can understand why, during the Brexit negotiations and indeed when we were negotiating a trade agreement with the European Union, this Government may have expressed a certain amount of caution on this issue. Taking into consideration the extraordinary power of Germany within the European Union and the extraordinary power that Germany has over the European Commission, it may not have been wise for the United Kingdom at that juncture to follow our American partners and others in agitating on this issue.

Nevertheless, that time has now passed, and we are now an independent sovereign nation state. We are also a permanent member of the UN Security Council—a privilege peculiar to only five countries in the world—as well as the fifth largest economy in the world and arguably the strongest military power on our continent. With those extraordinary privileges and attributes for Britain come extraordinary responsibility, and that is why I believe this Government must now take a lead on our continent in having this project stopped.

The project is a threat to NATO security and cohesion. Now, with North Macedonia joining our alliance, we have 30 members of this most successful military alliance. I think it is like being a member of a special club with a gold American Express card. This is one of the most successful military alliances in the world, but we do not just have responsibility in protecting our fellow NATO members from invasion; we also have a duty of care, in the letter and the spirit of our obligations under NATO, to ensure that our NATO partners in central and eastern Europe are not blackmailed and intimidated by the Russians over energy supplies. The Americans understand this. They understand the great threat to NATO, but also to the continent of Europe, in allowing this project to come to fruition. It is very close to completion, but it still can be stopped.

I know there are many here who do not particularly respect former President Trump, but he said the wisest thing that I have heard so far when he sat at a table with the Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, and said to them, “You expect us to send troops to Poland and the Baltic states, and to protect you. You expect us to spend hundreds of billions of pounds every decade in protecting your continent, yet you—the Secretary-General of NATO—are allowing one NATO partner,” namely Germany, “to, for its own reasons, create this direct link with Russia, giving the Russians an umbilical cord for the export of their gas.” We have all heard about the terrible trouble the Russian economy is in already. This is an umbilical cord from the heart of Europe to Russia, giving it the extraordinary opportunity of not only exporting to Europe, but putting our NATO allies under threat.

Several hon. Members rose—
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Daniel Kawczynski 

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I will just make a couple of extra points, and then I will give way.

Following President Trump, we now have President Biden, who has appointed as his deputy Secretary of State —one of the most powerful positions in Washington—a lady called Wendy Sherman. In the Senate nomination hearings, when she was being assessed by the other Senators, she said that the Biden Administration would do

“whatever is lawful to stop the pipeline”.

The Americans are our closest security and military partners, and as a fellow permanent member of the UN Security Council, if they are prepared to take the lead on our continent on this hugely strategically important issue, we must join them. I have written to Senator Ted Cruz from Texas this week, who is the leading proponent in the American Senate of stopping this project. He and 40 other Republican Senators have written to the President, calling for the Americans to implement sanctions against any company and any individual involved in this project. The chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate, Bob Menendez, a Democrat, has also spoken against this project.

I just want to say one thing before I take interventions. As an independent sovereign nation with an ability to influence our continent now in an unprecedented way, unfettered by the communal constraints of the European Union, if we now join the Americans as two permanent members of the UN Security Council, I think we could possibly stop this project. So many companies involved in the construction of this pipeline, whether Swiss companies or others, are so frightened of the prospect of sanctions against them that they are likely to pull out of the project, and this project will be stopped. Britain is at the forefront in this see-saw between Germany and Russia, and many of our NATO partners in central and eastern Europe and the Americans. It will be Britain that ultimately decides which side of this extraordinary debate wins out and guarantees the security of our NATO partners.

Jim Shannon 
(Strangford) (DUP)
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I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on having brought this issue forward: this is the place for these decisions to be debated. The foreign policy issues surrounding Nord Stream are deep and complex, as he has referred to. I fully agree that we must be wary of reliance on unreliable states. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the recent reports of state-sponsored attacks on protesters in Russia are a sobering reminder, if one is needed, that there is more of a cost to be paid from being in thrall to Russia than money?

Daniel Kawczynski 
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I could not agree more with the hon. Gentleman, and will talk about some of the extraordinary behaviour of Russia in its own neighbourhood and domestically within its own jurisdiction, and how it is undermining and subverting democracy in its own country.

When I was on the Foreign Affairs Committee I called for dialogue with the Russians. I still stand by that. I think we have to talk to these people, but we have to do so from a position of strength. Giving them this umbilical cord to the heart of Europe undermines that negotiating position. One thing we know about the Russians was taught to us by Reagan and Thatcher—Thatcher invited Gorbachev to Chequers in December 1984, the first western leader to invite him for discussions. They taught us that we can only negotiate with those people from a position of strength. Divided among us, they will eat us for breakfast.

Chris Bryant 
(Rhondda) (Lab)
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I agree with every word the hon. Gentleman has said in the debate and I congratulate him on securing it. It is a geostrategic mistake for Germany to encourage this, and we need to get the French on board. If we have three out of the five Security Council members, that is an even stronger position. I am anxious that the UK Government seem to be going a bit quiet on this issue, as they have on the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, which is yet another flagrant abuse of human rights in Russia.

Daniel Kawczynski 
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I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for that intervention and agree with every word that he has said. Later in my speech, I will chide my own Government. They have been almost mute on this issue, and that position does not reflect the urgency of the situation and the responsibility that our country has.

Countries in central and eastern Europe are not just leaving this all to us to deal with. They have created the Three Seas initiative; 12 countries, all of whom are members of the European Union, and all of whom are members of NATO—apart from Austria. It is a regional, relatively homogeneous bloc. The 12 member countries are on the frontline with Russia. My office and I have spent the past few weeks interviewing all the ambassadors from these 12 countries. We have interviewed 10 out of 12 so far, and we will be writing a report for Members of Parliament about the initiative. These countries are trying to create strategic investments across the whole bloc to safeguard individual members from undue Russian pressure.

Bob Stewart 
(Beckenham) (Con)
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The strategic problem is this, is it not? By putting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline straight into Germany, Germany can guarantee its gas supplies from Russia. On the other hand, these countries in eastern Europe—the Three Seas, as it were—could be blackmailed by Russia and picked off from the rest of NATO. That is the strategic problem with Nord Stream 2.

Daniel Kawczynski 
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My hon. Friend, who is such an excellent speaker with so much experience in military matters, has managed in a few words to sum up the whole situation more succinctly than I could in half an hour. I am grateful to him.

Poland and Croatia have been the instigators of the Three Seas initiative. Both countries have built liquified gas terminals on their coastlines. The whole thing about the Three Seas initiative is that the investments seek to create additional pipelines so that more of this liquified gas can be sent inland to landlocked neighbours and NATO partners. Poland is also buying a huge amount of liquified gas from America and from Norway, and has invested billions of dollars in its liquified gas terminal at Świnoujście on the Baltic coast—I would like to see Hansard deal with the spelling of that. I shall help them with the spelling of Świnoujście. Is that not an amazing example, Mr Deputy Speaker? If a country is a member of NATO, that exclusive club or organisation that has not lost a square inch of territory since its inception 70 years ago, surely the next step should be to do as Poland is doing, which is to buy gas from America or Norway, even if it costs a little bit more, so that it is not dependent on Russian gas supplies.

I would like the Minister to give me an assurance that the Foreign Office is working hand in glove with the Department for International Trade to assess what opportunities there are for British companies to participate in the construction of these pipelines within the Three Seas jurisdiction, and to assist and invest in these liquified gas terminals on the coastlines of the Adriatic sea, the Black Sea and the Baltic sea so that we have some of the greatest energy companies in the world. That is important not only for British strategic and financial interests, but in helping our fellow NATO partners in central and eastern Europe.

Dr Julian Lewis 
(New Forest East) (Con)
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rose—

Daniel Kawczynski 
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I give way to the Chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee.

Dr Lewis 
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I wonder what reasons Germany has given, at least publicly, for its behaviour, given the overwhelming case against Nord Stream 2 outlined by my hon. Friend. I cannot help being put in mind of that famous quotation, which may or may not have correctly been attributed to Lenin, that the west and the capitalists

“will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.”

Daniel Kawczynski 
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I could not have put the situation better. Germany, in a rather peculiar statement the other day, did not really explain why it is building this pipeline. Clearly, it is a stitch-up between the Russians and the Germans. They do not want to rely on the transportation of gas through Belarus, Ukraine or Poland—countries that the Russians have problems with. Russia does not want to rely on exporting its main commodity through those countries; it wants to have a direct link under the sea, so that Germany, irrespective of its obligations to NATO, can have that direct access to Russian gas.

Bob Stewart 
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Will my hon. Friend give way?

Daniel Kawczynski 
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I will not give way for the moment.

It is a very selfish act on Germany’s part and inconsistent with NATO membership. The Germans have also said that it is something to do with their obligations to Russia in terms of reparations from the second world war. They need to help the Russians with the construction of this pipeline out of some sense of duty over war reparations. If that is the case, Poland is still waiting for its war reparations 80 years on.

I am very grateful to have secured this Adjournment debate, but it should not be for me, a Back-Bench Tory MP, to raise this issue. It should be the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary explaining the threat of this project to our electorate. I suspect that, if most of us went back to our constituencies and started talking about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, not many people would be cognisant of it. It should be the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary who are leading the way in explaining to our citizens the threat that this project poses to our allies and, ultimately, to us. One thing that we have learned from history is that if there is instability in central and eastern Europe—if these countries are threatened, blackmailed or invaded—which country always get sucked into it? It is the United Kingdom. We have seen too much instability on our continent to allow Britain to be sucked into that. We need a statement from the British Government that we will implement sanctions on every company and individual involved in this project and it must start with the former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, who was earning an eye-watering salary at the very pinnacle of this organisation

Dr Lewis 
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Gazprom.

Daniel Kawczynski 
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Yes, Gazprom, as my right hon. Friend says.

Germany is behaving in a selfish and dangerous way and in a way that is incompatible with its responsibilities to NATO. As I have also said, let us talk to the Russians, but let us do it from a position of strength.

We have all seen—the hon. Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) has been one of the most vocal on this—the outrageous behaviour of the Russians within the neighbourhood, whether in Georgia, the butchery that took place in South Ossetia, in Ukraine, or the ongoing deliberate violation of the Baltic states’ maritime and airspace. I went to Ukraine when I was on the Foreign Affairs Committee. We went to Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. I have never seen anything like it in my 15 years as a Member of Parliament. It was like being on the face of the moon. Everything was destroyed. Nothing was left standing. It was a wasteland. We on the Foreign Affairs Committee saw what the Russians are capable of in Ukraine.

The two countries that this pipeline will violate most are indeed Ukraine and Belarus. The Government are trumpeting their agreement with the Ukrainians on the Government website, saying just this month,

“UK and Ukraine sign Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership”.

“A strategic partnership” with Ukraine—there is a photograph of the Prime Minister with the President of Ukraine signing the agreement, and it says:

“UK cooperation in political, security and foreign matters with Ukraine”.

How can we sign a strategic partnership with the Ukrainians while at the same time kicking the chair from underneath them, by allowing the one last power that they have over the Russians—the fact that they have to export their gas from Ukraine—not to happen? This agreement it is not going to be worth the paper it is written on, if this project is allowed to come to a conclusion.

Bob Stewart 
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Will my hon. Friend give way?

Daniel Kawczynski 
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In a second.

Let me turn to Belarus. We have all seen on our television screens the brave young men and women fighting against the brutal dictator in Minsk. A few years ago, I went on a parliamentary delegation to Minsk, where I saw at first hand how this brutal authoritarian regime suppresses its own people. But one day, Lukashenko will be gone and this will be a new, independent, sovereign fledgling state. Can hon. Members imagine in two, three, four or five years’ time—whenever it is—when the democratic Government of Belarus are seeking finally to join the rest of Europe as a sovereign state, what position they will be in if this gas does not have to go through their country and just goes straight to Germany under the sea? It will be the greatest impediment to the democratisation of Belarus, and we have a duty and responsibility to that country as a fellow European partner.

I must now conclude. By allowing this pipeline, we not only betray our NATO allies; we empower Russia in an unprecedented way to manipulate Belarus and Ukraine. I look forward to the Minister’s response to my genuine fears and the fears of many colleagues from across the House.

7.28pm
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs 
(Wendy Morton)
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I am grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Shrewsbury and Atcham (Daniel Kawczynski) for securing this debate, and for his ongoing work on European energy security, including as chair of the all-party parliamentary group for Poland. I am also grateful for the contributions to this debate that he and other hon. Members have made this evening. In the time I have, I will try to respond to all the points raised.

The resumption of construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after a one-year hiatus has understandably rekindled interests in this project. As many hon. Members are aware, the UK Government have repeatedly aired our significant concerns about Nord Stream 2, its implications for European energy security, and its impact on Ukraine and other transit countries. When complete, Nord Stream 2 will double the Russian gas capacity flowing directly into Germany. Alongside the southern TurkStream route, this will largely replace the need for Russian gas to transit Ukraine.

The Government’s concerns about the pipeline are a matter of public record, and we continue to raise them publicly and in private with key allies. It is important to reiterate that Nord Stream 2 would not affect the UK’s gas supply. The UK gas market is one of the most liquid and developed in the world and our gas comes from diverse and reliable sources. Most of the gas that we use comes from our own production and reliable suppliers such as Norway. We receive a small amount of liquefied natural gas from Russia, but last year it accounted for less than 3% of our total gas supply.

Although Nord Stream 2 would not directly impact on our energy security, it could have serious implications for central and eastern European countries. Last year, around one third of European gas came via Russian gas pipelines. Some European countries are nearly wholly dependent on Russian gas. This reliance on a single source raises serious concerns about energy security. Furthermore, we do not believe that Nord Stream 2 is necessary to meet future European gas demand. There is sufficient existing pipeline infrastructure, including through Ukraine and Poland, for Russia to meet its European supply commitments.

There are also big questions about the need for Nord Stream 2 in a decarbonised future. Although the UK and European countries will continue to need natural gas for years to come, we are increasingly using energy from renewable sources, and we need to work to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the entire energy system in order to meet our net zero targets.

As I have said, the potential impact of Nord Stream 2 on Ukraine is particularly worrying. Ukraine hosts the largest existing pipeline network for Russian gas, and transit fees have historically made up a significant proportion of Ukraine’s GDP. Nord Stream 2 would divert supplies away from Ukraine, with significant consequences for its economy. It could also have significant security implications. The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is regarded as a deterrent against further Russian aggression, so is a vital part of Ukraine’s national security.

Chris Bryant 
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Will the Minister give way?

Wendy Morton 
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I am going to continue as I am conscious that I do not have much time. If I have time at the end, I will come back to the hon. Gentleman.

It is positive that Naftogaz and Gazprom signed a gas-transit agreement at the end of 2019—it helped to avoid disruption at the time—and we welcome the role that Germany and the EU played in facilitating the negotiations. However, that agreement provides certainty only through to 2024; after that, there is greater uncertainty.

I reiterate the UK Government’s long-standing and unwavering commitment to Ukraine. We are one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters and are providing political and practical support to strengthen its sovereignty and resilience. On energy specifically, we are helping Ukraine to reform its energy market, working closely with the Ministry of Energy and the Ukrainian regulator.

I know that some ask whether the UK could be doing more to oppose Nord Stream 2, and my hon. Friend the Member for Shrewsbury and Atcham has put forward some interesting proposals. The UK welcomes the efforts of the three seas initiative to promote co-operation and development across central and eastern Europe, and we are open to the possibility of expanding the UK’s interaction with that group. I reassure Members that we will continue to share our concerns about Nord Stream 2 with key partners. It is our strong belief that we should be working to reduce reliance on any single gas supplier, and the dependency and leverage that can come with it. To counteract the risks associated with Nord Stream 2, it is essential that European countries diversify their energy supplies.

I was glad to visit Poland in October last year to discuss the need for energy transformation and a just transition, including with a business audience at the Wrocław energy congress. Since that time, Poland has proposed an ambitious energy plan and agreed on the EU’s target of at least a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. We will continue to work with it to achieve ambitious climate and energy goals. However, with regard to Nord Stream 2, it is also important to recognise Germany’s sovereign right to formulate its own energy policy. Nord Stream 2 is highly contentious, but we would not want the debate over it to risk undermining the co-ordinated response by allies to wider Russian malign activity.

I fully recognise the legitimate concerns that hon. Members have raised today. Nord Stream 2 poses a threat to European energy security and the interests of existing transit countries. At a time when Europe should be diversifying and decarbonising its energy supplies, Nord Stream 2 risks entrenching European dependency on Russian gas for decades to come, increasing Russia’s ability to use energy as a political tool. For these reasons, the UK remains opposed to the pipeline and we will continue to raise our concerns with key partners. We will also continue to support initiatives that strengthen and diversify the European energy market.

Question put and agreed to.

7.35 pm

House adjourned.

SUM:

This really explains what happened next with Truss and BoJo:
 

One can also read the post-mortem between the lines: 

"PRESS RELEASE: Prime Minister urges Europe to ‘stand firm’ against Russian aggression ahead of regional summit [October 2022]" -> later post here.


RELATED POSTS:


OTHER UK RELATED POSTS

most of the research about UK´s role, motives has been conducted in 2023
The summary is here:





***

***
Uncovering the truth took over two years of self-funded, tireless investigation.
I decided to open it for free, no paywall, despite huge investment.
Because the truth matters.
Please consider supporting my work with a donation.

Every bit helps keep this mission alive!

(retweet and follow)