I am not a typical whistle-blower, I found a prime suspect - the United Kingdom, I back it up with vast data and now I try to blow a whistle for public to come and examine my claim.
The NordStream affair is a criminal act due to its intentional nature.
CRIMINAL PROFILING (of the state actor)
When the suspect of an international sabotage is supposedly unknown, criminal profiling can be a valuable tool in assisting with the investigation.
HYPOTHESIS
My hypothesis is that the United Kingdom was involved in the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines, and I am testing this hypothesis by analysing the alignment of UK's policies and actions with the sabotage.
Specifically, I am examining UK's economic, political, security, and energy policies and actions before and after the sabotage to determine if they were consistent with or related to the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines.
MY RATIONALE
I. Gathering Information:
The first step in criminal profiling is to gather as much information as possible about the crime and the circumstances surrounding it.
This includes examining any evidence and witness statements, as well as looking at the history of the target and any possible motives for the attack.
-> I created The Largest Resource about Nordstream affair:
II. Creating a Profile:
Based on the information gathered, a simple profile of the offender can be created. This profile may include details state actor or actors, like government organizations, agencies, ministries, government top actors itself and people supporting them. Note that some people may have changed posts, some government were replaced, some had elections.
-> I defined/searched for People who are behind the "state actor":
-> I defined/explored state policies of the "state actor":
III. Narrowing down of the list of suspects - which states have Alibi:
It can help investigators to narrow down the list of suspects and focus their efforts on those who are most likely to have committed the crime
-> I defined possible factors important for a state alibi and for state wanting to launch such operation:
On the one side Russia on the other NATO states
It would be wise to recheck and categorize possible Russian motives
IV. Exploring UK´s possible Motives, Developing leads
The Nordstream affair could be part of a wider campaign to undermine the Nordstream project and weaken Russia's influence in Europe.
After finding the prime suspect I explored the role of the UK through newspaper articles and statement of UK government officials.
All bellow mentioned aspects of state strategy MUST be part of the plot
-> Long term strategy policy must be in place
-> Political reasons
-> Economical reasons
-> Security aspects
-> Global Strategy reasons
-> Military reasons
-> Legal aspects
-> Preparations for energy price hike
-> Shielding own companies to future impact
-> The mission as a part of starving Russian state of its income
-> The Salami slicing politics
-> The non-motive
-> There seem to be other aspects, like Personal, ideological, power politics, etc.
SUM: It does seem the UK has a consistency in policies which led toward the Nordstream affair.
Events which happened afterwards do seem to match the claim of the UK being the prime suspect.
V. Cross-examination of the main suspect´s relations with other states:
The state as an actor implies the importance of examining international relations of the suspect to other states.
-> I recorded related events between the prime suspect toward other actors. It must be consistent and must be explainable on background of the event:
- Ukraine Poland (Post to be done)
VI. Chronological view
-> Focused on the event itself:
-> Focused on the cover up:
VII. Crime Scene Analysis:
A thorough analysis of the crime scene can provide important clues about the offender, such as their level of planning and organization, their methods of entry and escape, and any tools or weapons used.
Level of planning
Organization
Methods of entry and escape
Related to the crime scene
Technical and material
VI. Geopolitical view
III. Psychological Assessment:
A psychological assessment of the offender may be conducted in order to gain insight into their motivations, thought processes, and behaviour patterns.
This can be done through analysis of written or spoken communications, as well as through interviews with people who may have interacted with the offender.
Tools or weapons & execution team behind
VI. Re-evaluating the Profile:
As the investigation progresses, the profile may need to be updated or refined based on new information that is uncovered.
VII. Other
Not categorized based on profiling point of view.
A few closing remarks:
I am not an OSINT and I do not claim to use same techniques nor try to compete with them.
From what I have observed the majority of them are focused on the technical part of the event itself. They try to investigate mainly the moment when the saboteur mined pipelines and how. Then they try to fit the narrative through possible motives.
My approach if different:I acknowledge that official investigators are best equipped to check the crime scene, they work with data which are not available to the public because there is legal ban on information through the investigation.
They have trace, forensic, direct, etc. I do not compete nor try to substitute that. Yet, there is another types which are available to public:
Different types of evidence, I focus on the red:
Direct, Circumstantial, Testimonial, Documentary, Physical, Trace, Biological, Electronic, Demonstrative, Hearsay, Character, Real, Forensic, Expert, Fingerprint, DNA, Video, Audio, Photographic, Eyewitness, Confession, Implied, Digital, Scientific, Statistical, Surveillance...
I look at what has been said by possible suspects (state actors - PM, Foreign ministers, other high level state officials,...), I focus on events in chronological way, I focus on profiling the state actor, I look at which states had best alibi, what opinions and positions state had about Russian hydrocarbons, I look at past actions, I look at political aspects, I look at security issues of states, I look at economics, internal and external factors... I look at relationship between states during the important period. I work hard to document and deduct on real data.
I use predominately official sources - mainly large news corporations who report about politicians, state records, I read many state documents, strategies, announcements - where possible I link with the date for reference.
Note: This technique is one of possible approaches. However, it should always be used in conjunction with other investigative techniques and should be conducted by trained professionals with experience in the field.
An appeal to journalists:
Do please help to shed lights on this international crime.
I may be wrong but I also may be right. Ask questions, investigate!
Clues and possible evidence I have found must be checked.
If the state actor of this crime will not be punished it is a horrible precedent.
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