How much did Germany really know?
about the potential attack against Nod Stream?
Was the risk of changing security situation underestimated?
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Nationalization of Uniper: In response to the energy crisis caused partly due to long term effects of sanctions on Russian energy and exacerbated by Russia halting Nord Stream 1 supplies, Germany nationalized Uniper, its largest gas importer.
Many meetings many top officials, issue described in separate post here.
Chancellor Scholz's Initiatives: Chancellor Scholz actively pursued energy partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar to substitute Russian gas imports.
LNG Shipments: These agreements secured vital LNG shipments to Germany, enhancing its energy security just before the Nord Stream attacks.
Assertive Energy Security: Despite the disruptions in Russian gas supplies, Scholz consistently maintained that Germany's energy security was intact. There was still hope for reopening Russian Nordstream 1 pipeline after solving temporary issues with turbines and INCOTERMS.
Speculations on Awareness: The timing of these energy deals, its successful closing with no known obstacles, just days before the Nord Stream sabotage, mixed with sudden worsening of the security situation in the Baltic sea, for example USA withdrawing its naval forces in a snap decision, meetings of top security representatives, diplomatic meetings, and due to other many data-points, the sum interpretation is that Germany had some awareness of a potential attack.
Was Germany underestimating the changing security landscape and how informed it truly was about the attack on subsea infrastructure? How so it succeeded?
The going thesis is that NOR blew a whistle to its allies, mainly Germany, Sweden, and independently USA. The protection against hybrid attacks is hard unless they materialize. Germany had policing boat Bamberg in the area, several planes monitoring the area.
DATA:
19 Sept 2022 - GER: Scholz to visit Saudi Arabia as Germany seeks to replace lost energy supplies
Germany on Wednesday announced a deal to nationalize Uniper—the country’s biggest gas importer—in a move that comes months after neighboring France nationalized its biggest utility company EDF, as countries across Europe scramble to respond to an ongoing energy crisis sparked by Russia’s decision to completely cut off the supply of natural gas to the region via the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
As part of the deal, the German government has agreed to acquire Finnish state-energy firm Fortum’s 78% stake in Uniper for nearly half a billion euros (nearly $480 million) raising its total stake in the company to 99%.
With the Nord Stream 1 pipeline being out of action, Russian gas supplies to Europe are now primarily flowing through Ukraine, but Moscow has threatened to shut this supply route as the G7, led by the U.S., moves to impose a global price cap on Russian oil.
Germany is not the first European country to nationalize a major utility provider in recent months. In July, the French government agreed to pay nearly €10 billion ($9.9 billion) to fully nationalize the electricity giant EDF, by acquiring the remaining 16% of the company’s shares that it did not already own.
Earlier this month, Russia warned that supplies through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume until the West lifts all sanctions against it. Moscow argues the sanctions have prevented it from carrying out needed maintenance on the critical pipeline—an argument that European officials have dismissed.
[MRT: The issue was that sanctions were against NS2, then they spilled over to NS1 which made the maintenance and safe operation more difficult]
23 Sept 2022: GER: Scholz confirms, “we will get through this winter”
[MRT: Scholz was in the Middle East closing agreements for LNG shipments. They would go through the UK and through other LNG terminals as Germany was dependant on pipelines.]
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64, SPD) believes that Germany's energy supply over the winter is secure from the current perspective.
With the switch to alternative gas supply sources and the construction of LNG terminals that has begun, but also with the continued operation of coal-fired power plants and the nuclear reserve, the conditions have been created, he said on Friday at a celebration of the 25th anniversary of the IG BCE union in Hanover. "All of this has contributed to the fact that we can now say: We will get through this winter. Who would have thought that a few months ago?"
[MRT: The switch to alternative gas supplies enhances that the topic was also about the Nordstream which was at the moment not delivering]
24 Sept 2022 - GER: Energy trumps human rights as Scholz visits Riyadh
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Scholz secures gas deal with Abu Dhabi amid pressure on human rights
Scholz visited the three Gulf regions of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar during his two-day trip from Saturday to Sunday.
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Germany’s Scholz inks gas deal with United Arab Emirates
25 Sept 2022 - GER/UAE: UAE agrees LNG deal with Germany as Berlin looks to replace Russian gas
Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Gulf states in drive to secure energy imports
The United Arab Emirates has agreed a deal to supply liquefied natural gas to Germany as Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the Gulf state as part of a regional tour seeking to drum up alternatives to Russian energy. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will supply Germany utility RWE with 137,000 cubic metres of LNG later this year, which will be the first delivery to the under-construction import terminal on the north-west coast at Brunsbüttel,
RWE and the UAE state media said. Adnoc was expected to reserve another five LNG cargoes for German customers in 2023, a person briefed on the matter said on Sunday.
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Scholz wants closer energy cooperation with the Emirates
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) wants to further promote cooperation with the United Arab Emirates in the energy sector. You already have "a whole series" of diesel and liquid gas projects with the Gulf state, said the SPD politician on Sunday in Abu Dhabi. He emphasized how important it is to rely on as many providers as possible when supplying energy. Dependence on one supplier “will certainly not happen to us again,” emphasized Scholz.
[MRT: Note Truss statements and ultimatums to Germany to cut energy ties to Russia: "107 - About Liz Truss and ending the EU´s strategic dependency on Russian hydrocarbon" ...and ... "107 - About Liz Truss and ending the EU´s strategic dependency on Russian hydrocarbon"]
Until the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, Germany still got 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Deliveries from there have now largely stopped and German gas suppliers are looking for new sources of supply. The United Arab Emirates has the seventh largest natural gas reserves in the world. A contract for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Germany was expected to be signed during the Chancellor's visit.
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Habeck expects hydrogen and LNG deals this weekend[MRT: It is yet to be seen conditions under which this contract has been signed. If it is under not so good conditions then that means they knew that after Nord Stream pipelines are destroyed their negotiation position would be weaker. It was one day to explosion.]
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will conclude contracts in the areas of hydrogen and liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the Arabian Peninsula at the weekend. This is what Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) says with regard to the United Arab Emirates. "Persistent effort leads to success."
Habeck continued: Germany is currently having to buy expensive energy elsewhere because there have been no Russian deliveries. This will cost the country 60 billion euros this year and 100 billion next year, roughly two percent of economic output. But, according to Habeck: The investment capacity of the German economy and industry “must be maintained.”
[MRT: Note that the Nord Stream 2 AG project was only postponed by delayed certification but not cancelled in eternity. Would Nord Stream 2 AG not go forward then there was a high chance for Gazprom arbitration against German government - here. Also, the issue of turbines was likely a temporary one and linked to wrong INCOTERM papers from UK/Canadian subsidiary which sent them, re-certification, reissuance of fixed turbines was needed here. For Russia it would be likely more profitable to open Nord Stream 2 and shift gas through it instead of sending it through Nordstream AG (NS1) due to full ownership.]
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Chancellor Scholz believes energy supplies are secure
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Defense Ministry: As a result of the changed security situation,Despite the interruption in Russian gas deliveries, Chancellor Scholz believes that the energy supply in Germany is secure. Since the beginning of the year, the federal government has made far-reaching decisions to ensure "that we can ensure the supply of coal, oil and gas and that the electricity supply continues to function." It can therefore be said today: "We'll probably get through." The Chancellor also referred to the global impact of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. "We hear the news of the destruction, of the many deaths. But we also know: Russia will not win this war," he said.
25 Sept 2022 - GER: Scholz wants to avoid escalation between Russia and NATOthe roll call of the Territorial Command of the #Bundeswehr will take place tomorrow in the Julius Leber Barracks in Berlin in the presence of @Bundeskanzler and Minister Lambrecht.
After the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of Russian reservists for the war of aggression against Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) confirmed that he wanted to avoid an escalation between Russia and NATO at all costs. Germany has always supported Ukraine comprehensively, but at the same time ensured that such an escalation does not occur, said the SPD politician on the ARD “Tagesthemen”. "We will continue on exactly this path."
[MRT. So all three Scholz, Biden, Blinken and Stoltenberg try to send official messages on 25th, the day before the event happens and try to "de-escalate" to prevent wider conflict. This spells out a pre-knowledge and management of the event.]
7:16 p.m.: Scholz - Staying the course even after Putin's declaration
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces that he will stick to his course even after ordering partial Russian mobilization.
[MRT: The mobilization has happened already on 21st. Security had to have already pre-knowledge that it will happen so the late, 4 day delay in the statement is puzzling. There could be another reason for that statement like the worsening situation in the Baltic sea as shown here]
If Russian President Vladimir Putin were to threaten to use nuclear weapons again, “we would say again: that is unacceptable. But at the same time, we remain on our measured, decisive course to support Ukraine and prevent an escalation of the war beyond that between Russia and Ukraine. And that's exactly how we will continue to do it," Scholz told ARD Tagesthemen according to the preliminary report.
[MRT: Note that Russian nuclear positioning was aimed directly and only against London, Truss and Boris Johnson and included warnings against attacking Russia. Was the West worried that the known attack on Russian asset - Nordstream - COULD spark gradual worsening of security, out of hands escalation leading to nuclear exchange???]
Germany will also remain on its current course when it comes to supplying weapons. It remains the case that Germany does not go it alone.
26 Sept 2022 - GER: Olaf Scholz tests positive for COVID-19, German chancellor isolates after catching coronavirus.
A government spokesman announced that Scholz has mild cold symptoms and is isolating in the chancellor’s apartment in the Federal Chancellery.
“This week’s public appointments will be canceled. The chancellor wants to attend internal appointments and the scheduled meeting with the prime ministers of the federal states virtually,” a chancellery statement said.
Scholz just returned from a two-day trip to the Persian Gulf region, where he signed a gas deal with the United Arab Emirates.
NORDSTREAM IS BLOWN UP LATER ON MONDAY 26TH OF SEPTEMBER
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