The answer is not so simple.
[MRT: Using newly created Master Data-set - uploaded]
SUMMARY:
(under presumption, the conclusion, that the UK is the prime suspect)
The first decision had to be done after strategists realized that
that Russian energy flows to EU is a serious threat
to UK´s own energy security and that the removal of the threat is necessary.
Feasibility studies and several modelling had to be intensely studied.
The mission was a complex with many parts so preparations took
very long time and it was an "investment in future".
Then there was the June´s CIA strategic warning to its allies.
It is likely that the USA had some high level talks with UK
that it is not in their interests to pursue it.
Then Boris Johnson was deposed and another candidates were lined up. The candidate Navy was hoping for was actually Penny Mordaunt.
She has already served as a Defense minister
and had some experiences with covert operations
e.g. in Persian Gulf.
All changed when Liz Truss raced to the top selection.
Penny Mordaunt, THE Navy, all endorsed Liz Truss.
On the key debate she stated she would not hesitate
to use nuclear weapons to defend the UK.
Being briefed, having some time to consider.
Implementing necessary steps into Truss´s economical program.
There had to be another strategic meeting prior the final decision,
a green-light for the mission,
after she was sworn in.
It is possible that the mission
as reported to allies in the CIA strategic warning
has been delayed
due to change in government
and due to the death of Queen Elisabeth - read here.
[MRT: this sequence of events is based on available data]
I. The month June was very important for the Nordstream AG:Planned were yearly inspections which are needed for yearly reinsurance.
The Nordstream AG and reinsurers hire 3rd party independent approved companies which do this certified checkups - details here ("Russian sanctions and the insurance industry").
These checks are internal and external.
11 July - 21 July 2022 Nordstream yearly checkup/maintenance works Internal are done by a special tool with sensors and the process is called "pigging". External checks are done visually from the surface. Not all 4 lines need to be check each year. Data are carefully compared to previous years data and any variations are carefully inspected. A detonator could, for example, be exposed by its electromagnetic field. Peeled concrete would be also discovered by sensors - details here.
Timing. As you can see it was very hard to imagine that explosives were planted BEFORE the inspection took place. Or that a detonator would be hidden there for years.
- Hersh story is based on the claim that USA installed charges from USS Kaersarge or another surface boat during BALTOPS exercise. This exercise was 5 - 17 June 2022
- Proponents of Russia self-sabotaging also point to this time-frame.
- SideNote - Swedish investigator already excluded both USA and Russia in several rounds.
- The Hersh story has here hard DATA problem. The Baltops ended on 17th of June while the inspection was finished on 21st of June.
Note that reinsurers would not extend their yearly coverage would there be any issues found, any unexplained irregularity, delta against previous years.
Good assumption is then that charges could not be installed during this independent check or any time shortly after as a careful examination could be ordered.
The risk for such operation would be unacceptable given potential consequences such revelation could bring. The window is therefore end of checkup until 26-09-2022 when the pipeline was attacked.
Note that insurances are not valid in case of self-sabotage and in case of conflict/war which is hard to quantify and usually there are some special clauses. Regardless this, one can assume that Russia would NOT be allowed to collect the insurance as assets are already frozen and soe insurance companies sanctioned (Catch-22). The claim Russia did it faces logical problem, Russia would end-up in position unable to collect or get zero.
II. Spin doctors and their 18 stories
If you are interested in the many other stories spins doctors managed to create then look here and here. At some point I will add there also the Seymour Hersh´s story but it is of no need. The data just does not support it. I can not decide if his story was planted one or if he just made it up. Any investigation should also include alternative theories and examine wheher Russia had a motive - research is done here.
II. The month June was very important for the perpetrator:
I early June the perpetrator probed the pipeline defence but Russia was not asleep.
June 8 2022, the Boeing P-8A simply switched off its call sign, several rounds over the NS blast site.
16 June 2022 - Russia once again intrudes into Danish territory
This time a warship entered Danish waters near Bornholm while thousands attend Folkemødet political festival on the island
17 June 2022 - Russian warship violated Danish territorial waters in Baltic, Danish military says
16 June2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned Following Violation of Danish Airspace: “Inacceptable breach”
The summons is a reaction to Russia’s violation of Danish airspace on 11 June between 11:08 a.m. and 11:42 a.m., during which time two Russian SU-30 fighter planes were observed over Danish airspace near Christiansø Island and Bornholm Island.
It shown willingness to protect its project. And VERY strongly. Note that those blast sites are in DK and SWE Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) VERY near Danish and Swedish Territorial Zones (TZ). That allows any submarine to hide in water where it is not seen and where Russia can not go based on maritime law.
The depth is ideal. Near TZ and deep enough to hide even a big submarine.
I assume/speculate that the same suspect who later blew up Nordstream was checking reaction time. Russia has surface radars in Kaliningrad, others as well. Russia can divert any passing Russian boat and send their own from the port. It can also send aeroplanes to check visually if needed which takes just a few minutes. They just must stay in EEZ and not enter TZ. Therefore a surface approach from a boat is also very risky business for such No-Failure-Allowed Top Critical Mission. Those violations - they were part of the Nordstream attack. Russians knew something was up. Who else started to think that there was a suspicious activity happening near Bornholm, such which is not reported in any NATO mission. Somebody else found it odd.
III. The US Warning to its allies
June 2022: Der Spiegel was the first to report that the The C.I.A...
...issued a vague warning in June to a number of European nations, including Germany, that the two Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia could be targeted in forthcoming attacks, three senior officials familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday...
... what intelligence officials call “strategic warning” of a possible attack — a warning that came with no specifics about the likely time or place or manner of a potential strike... The Biden administration, which in the run-up to the war often accused Russia of planning attacks on Ukraine, was careful on Tuesday not to blame Moscow — or anyone else.
[M: Perhaps because the plan was still unclear? Because the threat would come in future? Note that it was warning to European nations, most likely those who are shareholders of NS: GER, FRA, NED. Just exercise the Thought that the warning is specific for attack against EU infrastructure and for a specific time - September.]
IV. Legal issues
Based on the European law about exporters of gas and pipeline operators these need to be legally divided (!). Reversing the decision in fact would mean that legally those pipelines would get HIGHER legal protection. The perpetrator knew about it as well.
Note that destroying pipeline does NOT rid the exporter to deliver. Faulty or destroyed pipeline is no excuse in contract, in fact contract states that operators must deliver as piped gas contracts are long term ones. They do not depend on functionality of pipelines.
Right now the branch through Belarus to Poland is sanctioned by Poland and therefore not usable. The southern energy corridor to Turkey via the the Blue and Turk streams can not substitute the lost capacity. The reality check for those who still think that it was Russia is this: Would Russia really blow own pipeline and then pay extra above market HUGE fees to Ukraine as they have the only free working capacity left?
When we talk about the math. Nordstream fees are zero, expected lifetime 50+ years, total cost 20B while the fees just to Ukraine are 1.2 B a year. Every single year! The Ukrainian infrastructure is ageing and they do not provide legal protection for Gazprom to invest and protect against nationalization.
V. Simple mathematicsOwnership-wise the Gazprom has 51% in NS1 AG while GER, FRA, NED have remaining 49%. In the case of NS2 AG the company Gaprom has full ownership but same partners are profiding 49% of the loan. Russia state has in Gazprom majority ownership. Listed at Russian stock exchange the rest is owned by investors, private or else, several foreign also. Therefore Russia state had some 16+ % stake in the project. Regardless the UK and everybody knows that revenue from selling oil/gas make some 30% of Russian government budget.
VI. The month July was important for Germany and EU in relation to Nordstream
Coincidence? Legal aspects and vulnerability of the undersea infrastructure has been a major issue for Rishi Sunak as he wrote this important paper about the issue here in 2017. The paper speaks about vulnerability of UK´s data infrastructure but the same could be applied to Nordstream.
12 July 2022 - Gazprom’s Shunned Nord Stream 2 Wins Spat Over EU Pipeline Rules
- EU top court says gas project’s challenge is admissible
- Lower EU court will have to rule on substance of dispute
Russia’s shunned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won a legal boost in its pre-war challenge against European Union rules that subjected all new and existing pipelines involving foreign suppliers to the EU’s energy market-opening requirements, after the bloc’s top court said its appeal can be heard.
While the ruling is a win for Nord Stream 2, its impact may have been overtaken by events in Ukraine, which led Germany to withdraw its backing for the project.
12 July 2022 - Gazprom’s Shunned Nord Stream 2 Wins Spat Over EU Pipeline Rules
- EU top court says gas project’s challenge is admissible
- Lower EU court will have to rule on substance of dispute
Russia’s shunned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won a legal boost in its pre-war challenge against European Union rules that subjected all new and existing pipelines involving foreign suppliers to the EU’s energy market-opening requirements, after the bloc’s top court said its appeal can be heard.
While the ruling is a win for Nord Stream 2, its impact may have been overtaken by events in Ukraine, which led Germany to withdraw its backing for the project.
12 July 2022 - Judgment of the Court in Case C-348/20 P | Nord Stream 2 v Parliament and Council
13 July 2022 - EU and US welcome Canada's decision to return Russian turbine to Germany
19 August 2022 - Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches...
8 September 2022 - Swiss court gives Nord Stream 2 more time to avoid insolvency.
In May, the court granted a provisional moratorium against bankruptcy proceedings for the first time, which was valid until September 10. This period has now been extended by another four months.
VII. The USA was against over-reliance due to NS2 but was OK with NS1
The Nordstream attack has shown that the primary target was he Nordstream 1 twin pipeline and the Nordstream 2 twin pipeline was secondary. Note that the UK after Brexit lost any legal way how to stop Nordstream and Nordstream 2. The USA had re-negotiated with Germany earlier the old Merkel´s deal in which was agreed that If the Russia enters Ukraine then NS2 will not get certified. The only option left was directly knocking it out. Here is about the USA-GER deal which is often misunderstood as Biden disclosing accidentally that he already had plans of destroying it. He could not tell details of the Merkel´s deal which he just renegotiated with Scholz - here and here. Note that US speaks of NS2 specifically while UK always talks about ll Russian energy exports. Note also that USA does want to have a strong ally in Europe while for UK Strong Germany is a local regional competitor.
18 Jan 2022 - Scholz: Germany will discuss Nord Stream 2 penalties if Russia attacks Ukraine
VIII. The September´s spotting of the submarine near Bornholm
The US Navy spotted again a submarine operating near future blasts. But unless they do something bad how can you stop? How can you be sure they were doing something illegal? As per previous CIA warnings EU (excluding UK) was running one naval exercise after another for the duration of whole September (!).
1 Sept 2022 - Russian Ambassador Summoned To Denmark After Alleged Airspace Violation
1,2,3 Sept 2022 - US Military Helicopters Circled Around Future Nord Stream Leaks For Hours In September
IX. The NATO unity is broken. The alliance is dead (zombie style)
....Then the US Navy left on 22-23/09/2022.
On 19th of September it received a shocking intel from Norway which changed seriously US security and USA after careful analysis withdrew from Baltic Sea. It did not want to be part of what was about to happen. It did not want to be part of next European gangrene war. There was the issue that the event could become easily hot.
The US has started to deescalate and inform main players about its actions in advance.
The US has acted as responsible and predictable actor. At this point.
What happened next? NOR blew a whistle - here.
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