He knew, he knows,..
There were 2 warnings...
Chief of Navy - Jan Christian Kaack
Germany’s chief of navy is called “Inspekteur der Marine”, literally Inspector of the Navy. He leads the entire naval force and represents it externally. He is responsible for the personnel and material readiness of the Navy; he advises the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr on all naval and maritime matters. Within the Federal Ministry of Defence and in multinational military committees, he represents the maritime perspective of the Bundeswehr.
He became acting Inspector of the Navy (commander of the German Navy) as a result of Kay-Achim Schönbach's resignation of the 22nd of January 2022. As of March 11th, 2022 he became the Inspector of the Navy.
NORTHERN COASTS EXERCISE:
About the exercise:
Northern Coasts is a recurring exercise which has been taking place in the Baltic Sea since 2007. It is hosted by a different Baltic country each year.
German Navy Admiral Stephan Haisch will lead the units involved in the exercise from the German Navy’s operations center in Glücksburg. As part of the exercise scenario, a fictitious regional country raises territorial claims over islands in the Baltic Sea using its naval forces to threaten freedom of navigation.
Acting on a UN-mandate, Allied and partner forces will seek to restore freedom of navigation. Training will also include maritime surveillance, naval combat, air-defence, anti-submarine warfare and mine-clearance.
"The Baltic Sea is of vital importance for the Alliance and is bordered by six NATO countries”, said NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu. “Northern Coasts is now in its 13th year.'
ORIGINAL TIMING
The increased presence in the Baltic Sea has also had an impact on the Navy's annual autumn maneuvers: Northern Coasts lasted longer than usual this year at four weeks, from 29 August to 28 September. This provided an opportunity for more participation from Germany's Baltic Sea partners.
[MRT: This statement could be understood that German navy was guarding Baltic infrastructure for a month and there was a reason for that. Perhaps the original USA strategic warning was specific and German navy knew who could be the suspect and what possible targets there were? Perhaps the political changes in the UK and the death of Queen just delayed the mission so exercises had to be extended?]
15- 19 Sept 2022 - FRA: The Tripartite Minehunter (CMT) Céphée made a stopover
at the port of Klaipėda from September 15 to 19, as part of the multinational exercise "Northern Coasts 2022", organized by the German Navy to strengthen cooperation in the Baltic Sea .
19 Sept 2022 - “Schleswig-Holstein” visits Lithuania
Over the weekend from September 16 to 19, 2022, the frigate “Schleswig-Holstein” was in the port of Klaipėda - for multinational exchanges during the Northern Coasts exercise. The submarine hunting frigate from Wilhelmshaven is currently taking part in this naval exercise, alongside other ships and boats from the German Navy and naval forces of friendly nations... Immediately after docking on Friday morning, September 16, Brune and Commander Frigate Captain Andreas Mückusch welcomed on board dignitaries from the city of Klaipėda, the host Lithuanian Navy and representatives of the German Embassy.
19 Sept 2022 - Baltic Guard: An Interim Assessment
Since spring 2022 , the Navy's most important contribution to the Enhanced Vigilance Activities has been the Baltic Guard measure . A work cell in the Maritime Operations Center ( MOCMaritime Operations Center) in Glücksburg near Flensburg organized to move as many national exercise projects as possible from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea. This is intended to increase the presence of the fleet there....
“There has been a significant shift in the projects of our ships, boats and aircraft from outside to the Baltic Sea,” confirms Frigate Captain Ulrich F. from the MOCMaritime Operations Center. And he adds: “This applies to both national and international units. However, exact figures, data and facts are classified.”
At the same time, the Navy with Baltic Guard is offering its partners in the Baltic Sea region the opportunity to take part in all of these exercises. Above all, this means that not only corvettes from Warnemünde and minehunters from Kiel, but also increasingly frigates from Wilhelmshaven are training their craft directly on NATO's northeastern flank - together with ships from the Polish or Estonian navies, for example.
"Our allies expect a leadership role from us"
[MRT: Which allies and why? USA? Perhaps because the US was leaving Baltic Sea? Because the US told EU they are on their own, USA preferring own security?]
The German Navy had made half of its fleet, including submarines, auxiliary and reconnaissance ships, available for the Enhanced Vigilance Activities in the spring - partly before the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. In February, the naval command assigned 28 of them, practically all of them that were not in a shipyard for maintenance and repair, to NATO units or diverted them from individual training projects in the North Sea to the central and eastern Baltic Sea.
“The motto was: Everything that swims goes out,” said Inspector Kaack in a recent interview with Welt Online. “Was it sustainable? No. Was it right? In any case. Because we have shown: Not with us, Mr. Putin!” As a result, the Navy was able to determine “normal behavior of the Russian fleet with a few exceptions in the aviation area.”
[MRT: Looks like some attack was expected. But here he tells it was not from Russia until the date of 19-09-2022 when things took unexpected turn to worse.]
The content of Northern Coasts 2022 was initially the usual training in cooperation between warships of different types and nationalities.
[MRT: What was the latter content then?]
In addition, the large-scale exercise this early autumn had other focuses: including training anti-submarine warfare specifically in the Baltic Sea.
[MRT: So does he tell that that there was a HUNT for a SUBMATINE?]
Those involved also practiced creating a multinational, cross-military, detailed military situation picture of the region and continuously updating it over the period of the maneuver.
[MRT: So the exercise has been a joint effort to find a sub where members exchanged and shared data?]
The major maritime military training event ended on September 20, around 40 hours earlier than planned.
[MRT: So the training part only ended on 20th but then there was a live submarine hunt because officially the Northern coasts ended on 28-09-2022?
Why 40 hours earlier? So it was supposed to end on 28th. A new mission order seems to be received: To hunt the sub and protect pipelines? This matches timing of other events.]
The success is considered assured, the balance sheet is positive. The participating naval forces of 14 nations have shown to be operationally ready. The German Navy is prepared to take on responsibility in the Baltic Sea region.
23 Sept 2023 - German Navy F125 Class frigate FGS Rheinland-Pfalz inbound to HMNB Devonport,
Plymouth late yesterday afternoon following the earlier arrivals of replenishment ship FGS Berlin and corvette FGS Oldenburg
27 Sept 2022 - Details: The CIA warned of attacks on the gas pipelines
As recently as last weekend, Jan Christian Kaack, a senior commander in the German Navy, warned of attacks on infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
[MRT: What did he know and is not sharing? What intel he had to say that?]
28 Sept 2022 - Underwater Critical Infrastructure Unprotected
The threat to the underwater infrastructure was not a secret. Last week, talking with Die Welt newspaper, German Navy inspector, Admiral Jan Kaack, noted that at the bottom of the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, there are many elements of critical infrastructure such as pipelines or underwater IT cables.
[MRT: Based on my findings many parties actually seem to know about the threat a lot.]
He did not make a specific reference to the sabotage of the two Nord Stream pipelines, but Kaack told the Die Welt: “There is a reason why Russian underwater or surface units are in the area of these cables.”
[MRT: One explanation is that they also were aware of the vulnerability and were also protecting pipelines..]
Underwater Critical Infrastructure
The two Nord Stream pipes are part of a complex network of critical infrastructure elements on the bottom of the seas, an infrastructure which has attracted the attention of the military and of emergency planners in the civilian sector. Among the notable critical infrastructure elements on the bottom of the Baltic Sea:
· High-voltage cables such as NordBalt cable between Sweden and Lithuania
· The 1172-kilometer C-Lion connection which runs from Finland to Germany
· Russia undersea cables, which connect St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad region via a cable of around 1100 kilometers.
2 Oct 2022 - Ruler of the oceans
After seven other countries, German naval aviators will also receive the P-8A Poseidon to ensure maritime surveillance and submarine hunting capabilities for at least a decade.The Naval Aviation Squadron 3 "Graf Zeppelin" in Nordholz, after the ordeal with the unreliable and antiquated P-3C Orion, you can look forward to a “great aircraft”. rejoiced Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Inspector of the Navy.
The Naval Aviation Squadron 3 "Graf Zeppelin" in Nordholz, after the ordeal with the unreliable and antiquated P-3C Orion, you can look forward to a “great aircraft”. rejoiced Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Inspector of the Navy.
Comprehensive equipment
If everything works out, the naval aviators will be “at the forefront again” internationally. because the P-8A is currently the only “high-end” solution available and offers a comprehensive range of capabilities. Especially when it comes to the increased need to hunt submarines, for example in the Baltic Sea and the Norwegian Sea off Norway, there is probably no better aircraft at the moment. Overall, Boeing speaks of "unique multi-mission capabilities" the Poseidon, from submarine hunting to combating ships, long-range maritime surveillance and use in search and rescue missions.
3 Oct 2022 - GER: "The person responsible for the Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks is unlikely to ever be held accountable", Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Commander of the German Navy, told Monday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".
"The basis for seeing possible events is a clear picture of the sea, or observation. If there is a clear picture of the air, surface or subsurface — almost clear, because you cannot always be completely sure — then you can look at anomalies in the system and then you can bring a special unit to the area where the anomaly was detected," Kaack said.
3 Oct 2022 - German Navy Commander: Nord Stream attacker unlikely to be prosecuted
The person responsible for the Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks is unlikely to ever be held accountable, Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Commander of the German Navy, told Monday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".
"Our partners in the east, and I would put Finland in there as well, they are very dependent on the critical marine infrastructure on the seabed. We will see whether anyone will be able to be held accountable — I don't think so," he said.
"But we can show now is solidarity and support by sending units that can have a look at the leakages and also support our partners with air surveillance and sub-surface surveillance and that is what's are doing."
17 Oct 2022 - FGS Oldenburg (F263), a German warship, outbound from Devonport Plymouth early this morning.
3 Nov 2022 - German Navy now guards energy facilities
"The German Navy takes part in passages to and from sea maneuvers in these areas, but also with recurring flights with the P-3C Orion off the Norwegian coast," explained the Navy Inspector, Vice Admiral Jan Kaack, on Thursday. The P-3C Orion aircraft are so-called maritime patrol aircraft - they monitor large areas of the sea from the air. They also provide a picture of the situation under water and can detect and combat submarines.
9 Jan 2023 - Europeans wade into fighting seabed threats with drones and sensors
“The number of sensors that have been developed even to date are generating huge quantities of data,” he said. That explains his agency’s appetite for novel information-processing techniques that can translate signals picked up by sensors into actionable intelligence.
German Navy chief Vice Adm. Jan Christian Kaack has made a similar case for keeping tabs on infrastructure in the country’s territorial waters of the North and Baltic seas. His idea is to integrate sensor data generated by operators, oceanic research institutions, police and the Navy into one operational picture that covers activity above and below water, a sea service spokesman told Defense News.
“Keeping such a picture current would help detect anomalies quickly and enable follow-up,” the spokesman added.
[MRT: Seems there was anomaly, data, but it was not acted upon to.]
30 Jan 2023 - Inspector of the Navy speaks about “turning point in the Navy”
“We have been warning about the threat to critical maritime infrastructure for years.” According to Kaack, the navy remains regionally rooted but has global obligations. Everything must be subordinated to national and alliance defense.
9 March 2023 - A job for professionals
In the first days after the attack, several countries sent investigative teams, including Germany. "On September 26th, we had a fleet service boat in action on the Baltic Sea, whose crew could hear the explosion," says Jan Christian Kaack, Navy Inspector in an interview with ZEIT ONLINE . The German Navy was then asked for help by the NATO partners and sent two boats with divers and underwater drones to the site of the explosion. "The location of the detonation is actually outside our jurisdiction," says Kaack.
The type of destruction clearly shows external intervention. Parts of the pipeline flew away a hundred meters. "But forensics does not allow a specific nation to be blamed for the explosion," says the naval inspector.
10 Sept 2023 - Marine inspector: Better protect critical infrastructure
Russia has made significant progress in underwater communications, navigation and effectiveness. An opponent now has the opportunity to evade the electromagnetic spectrum on the surface. "That is, he could navigate both surface units and underwater units based only on bottom relief. And that's difficult to explain." Unmanned or manned systems could be moved unnoticed.
[MRT: Only large navies have this capability and it seems it has been used.]
"On September 26th I received a call from my Swedish colleague pointing out that Nord Stream 1 and 2 were virtually destroyed and asking me to prepare to see whether we could provide support," said Kaack. The Navy had a research ship and a mine hunter with mine divers and drones ready. "We then went down again with the Americans, at their request, for a forensic examination and were able to notice things of our own," said the vice admiral.
A few weeks later, the Navy had another mission because Norway had noticed unknown drones. Germany sent a special aircraft - a so-called maritime reconnaissance aircraft - and several ships. And during an inspection on the important Europipe 1 natural gas pipeline from Norway through the North Sea to Germany, the operator also found an object that could have held 500 kilos of TNT. However, mine divers discovered that it was industrial scrap.
Deterrence can also be achieved if acts can be attributed. "If the opponent knows that we know that he is acting there, he is less likely to do something. If he does something, then the question is who can do the work. And that's just us. So for me this is a bycatch of national and alliance defense. If there's a bang, I'll have to do it anyway." How to act against attackers - Kaack speaks of the "forces with effective means" approach. - is still a “very special question that you have to face”. And in his opinion it has not been answered.
[MRT: Note that this statement includes a scenario in which an allied nation, e.g. UK, is known to have a planned mission to blow Nordstream, then until they do so it is technically and legally hard to prevent it. Every country draws different scenarios and mission for future contingency and even trains for it. Klaack answers this scenario which most likely happened last year. Germany, allies KNEW about the threat t least from June 2022 - CIA warning - and tried to prevent infrastructure but ultimately failed... ]
[MRT: Seems that almost one year after the event happened GER navy still does not know how it should of acted.]
NORTHERN COASTS 2023
29 Sept 2023 -
Northern Coasts First Balance Sheet 2023
[MRT: It is basically a rerun of 2022 - anti submarine and without the UK. Last year the USA has basically vacated the Baltic sea in the extended part of NOCO-22 here]
[MRT: One flag is missing - again!]
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