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Truss: "It is clear that we need to
reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian gas ..."
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CONCLUSION:
There considerable evidence of the UK's interest in researching sub-threshold warfare. The data show that the UK in 2020 and 2021 is not only interested in but is also actively preparing to employ sub-threshold warfare tactics as strategic tools against adversarial threats. Covert operations and sub-threshold tactics are aiming to disrupt adversaries, particularly Russia and China.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
Historical Context: The UK's involvement in covert operations has a rich history dating back to the 16th century, prompting a discussion about the effectiveness of disruption strategies to meet modern objectives
Covert Operations: The UK has intensified its emphasis on covert operations, highlighted by a 2021 integrated review that promotes intelligence, special forces, and offensive cyber operations to tackle threats from adversaries like Russia and China.
Sub-threshold Warfare Focus: Evidence suggests a strong UK interest in sub-threshold warfare strategies. This includes plans for covert special forces operations, as reported in a 2021 Guardian article. Key military documents, such as the Integrated Operating Concept (2020) and the Defence Command Paper (2021), reflect a strategic pivot towards operations below the threshold of armed conflict, utilizing non-kinetic tools like cyber and electronic warfare
Military Doctrine Adaptation: The UK's military doctrine is evolving to include sub-threshold scenarios, with the Ranger Regiments playing a pivotal role. There is significant discourse in Parliament and public statements supporting these capabilities, along with research contributions from think tanks like RUSI
Cybersecurity Initiatives: Organizations like the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) and 77 Brigade are focusing on cyber and psychological operations, while GCHQ has increased its public discussion about offensive cyber capabilities. Recent military exercises have also tested responses to hybrid threats, reinforcing the UK's commitment to these strategies
