Tuesday, December 10, 2024

220 - Swedish Air Force monitoring and protecting wrong key infrastructure - NordBalt, C-Lion

The #Saab340 AEW&C is a Swedish airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft;


SUMMARY:

The threat to the underwater infrastructure was not a secret.
Jan Christian Kaack, a senior commander in the German Navy, 
warned of attacks on infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. 
And he was not alone who had some foreknowledge.

The Swedish air force has been monitoring Baltic sea in the crucial time.

But the wrong key infrastructure was being protected 
while perpetrators had more time to engage over the target area near Bornholm.

It is possible that there was some "false/misleading" intel 
from the perpetrator to both Swedish and Estonian governments
which pulled forces from the contested area into the NordBalt connector.

Note that the Naval operational HQs are in Northwoods, UK.
(Note that the UK is the prime suspect and has been identified as the sole rogue actor,
the perpetrator, the one and only state actor according this investigation)


KEY TAKEAWAYS:

A crisis was already brewing in the Baltic Sea from September 15 to September 19, 2022.

On 19th of September NOR Prime minister and his defence minister flew to the USA, Norfolk, a HQ of the US Navy (Atlantic) and HQ of naval NATO forces to deliver some high level intelligence. It is presumed with high degree of confidence that Norway obtained some data about UK´s mission to attack Nordstream.

The Swedish Navy was engaged with Archipelago Endeavour 2022 and the head of SWE Navy even visited the anti-submarine units on 21st which went to check on the area near Bornholm.

At the same time the US naval forces withdrew suddenly from the Baltic sea.

Swedish Air surveillance was launched on 22nd of September if not earlier. This is a familiar date as other states have also been alarmed about some possible disrupting event - see here

It is possible that the anti submarine specialized asset, the Poseidon P-8A has found some magnetic anomaly confirming subsea asset operation which alarmed everybody.

The USA has left behind a US asset Paul Ignatius which started to monitor daily the RU enclave and naval base in Kaliningrad. And the USA started to de-escalate with Russia against possible retaliatory measure which could get out of hand. 

RU assets were also already alarmed and it is unclear to what extent they knew, but the RU nuclear positioning were aimed at London, while snap naval exercises focused on anti-submarine andti-terrorist operations. Russian channels sent specific warning to Truss and and Johnson not to proceed and stated they will defend themselves.

The area which was under focus of Swedish air forces was the Swedish - Latvian high electricity connector - NordBalt. Swedish and other Baltic forces seemed to be misled, focusing their protection on the NordBalt cable instead of the actual attack site near Bornholm.

Estonian president was worried that Baltic states will be disconnected from the EU grid. This may have been a crucial false intel which pulled forces from Bornholm area to protect NordBalt and FIN-EE connector. This could be the time-frame when explosives were planted?

Key question remains: On what basis they were alarmed and why were they not protecting near Bornholm where they were already several times before? 

 

THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN AC/DC SYSTEM:

NORDBALT:

NordBalt (also formerly known as SwedLit) is a submarine power cable between Klaipėda in Lithuania and Nybro in Sweden. The purpose of the cable is to facilitate the trading of power between the Baltic and Nordic electricity markets, and to increase the supply and energy security in both markets. Utilization here, pg 35.


[MRT: Due to the maintenance the Swepol the Nordbalt had increased risk.]  

SWEPOL

The annual maintenance period for SwePol occurred over a duration of 29 days, spanning September and October 2022. The maintenance started on 12th of September.
[MRT: Due to the maintenance the Swepol was not to be worried as much] 

C-Lion

C-Lion1 is a submarine communications cable between Finland and Germany. 

 

DATA:

18 Sept 2022 - 19 Sept 2022 SWE SVF638 flies to NW London and back. 

Likely the SWE Royal Family visiting UK for the Queen´s funeral.

(Same landing airport for JEF HQ, NATO maritime command MARCOM and  Royal Navy HQ in Northwoods, London).

 

[MRT: Nothing special or unusual in noticed in SWE news before this date] 

19 Sept 2022 - NOR/SWE/FIN/DK: This week, the Nordic Naval Staff Seminar...

... is being held in Bergen. Here, representatives from the Naval Defense Staffs in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark meet to share experiences and develop Nordic defense cooperation.

[MRT: If NOR really informed USA it must have also notified (primarily) its closest allies so this event could have been THE RIGHT CHANNEL. Note that NOR, SWE, FIN, and DK run simultaneously exercises, anti-terrorist drills and policing actions starting from after this day. The intel seemed to go through two main channels, about the second here: here]  

 LITHUANIA RISES ALERT LEVEL:

21 Sept 2022 - LIT: Lithuania has increased the alert levels of its army "to prevent any provocations from Russia," not least in neighbouring #Kaliningrad, the country's defence minister said

Lithuania puts it's rapid reaction force on high alert to prevent any provocation from #Russia, defence minister says

GERMANY IS ALERTED  

19 Sept 2022 - GER: Botschaft Polen DE, @PLinDeutschland:

Baltic Sea states face myriad hybrid and conventional threats from Russia in the maritime domain. Fascinating to be part of training by @KoerberIP for security experts, including military maneuvers onboard 🇩🇪 corvette Oldenburg @deutschemarine and exchanges with @chiefdeunavy

ESTONIA ALSO RINGS A WARNING BELL:

22 Sept 2022 - From the speech of the President of Estonia today:

[MRT: There is noticed third cluster of news which focus on the possible Russian interference - mainly Germany, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.]  

22 Sept 2022 - EE: According to the decision of the @EstonianGovt, @kaitsevagi announces snap military exercise #OKAS22, Sep. 22-28.

2800+ reservists were invited to SNAPEX "OKAS2022", Sep. 22-28. Exercise "OKAS" takes place every autumn. Participants are called up with no prior notice. Reserve-based 🇪🇪 defence model requires reservists to be ready, to react and participate in military exercises at all times. 

POLAND ALSO CHANGES SUDDELY ITS POLICY:

22 Sept 2022 - The prime minister of Poland has said 

his country is no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine and is instead arming itself.

PROTECTING AND MONITORING NORDBALT:

22 Sept 2022 -  Gulfstream G-IVSP (S102B Korpen) checking NordBalt

Gulfstream G-IVSP (S102B Korpen)

23 Sept 2022 - SwAF Korpen and AEW airborne.

23 Sept 2022 - Swedish Air Force S100D ARGUS AEWCS C604Airborne early warning system over the Baltic Sea 

THE PATTERN CHANGED

23 Sept 2022 - USA/NOR/SWE/DK/FIN: Ambassador Erik Ramanathan @USAmbSweden: 

Building relationships within our regional community is important to us. It was a pleasure meeting with the U.S. Nordic Ambassadors today in Stockholm for a day exploring the many possibilities for future collaboration. @usembdenmark, @usambdenmark, @usembassyoslo, @usembfinland 

24 Sept 2022 - SwAF AEW airborne.

24 Sept 2022 - Swedish Air Force Saab S 100D Argus (340 AEW&C) keeping tabs on Russians in Kaliningrad.  

 

26 Sept 2022 - SwAF Korpen airborne.

[MRT. Checking on C-Lion1 cable] 

26 Sept 2022 - Swedish Air Force S102B KORPEN SVF623 ELINT mission over the Baltic Sea

 

27 Sept 2022 - SWE: SwAF AEW airborne.


26 Sept 2022 - SWE: NATO exercises hybrid threats against renewable energy in Sweden

The world's first exercise in dealing with hybrid threats to renewable energy systems has just been carried out in Sweden. At the same time, Estonia's prime minister warns that Russia could cut off the Baltic countries. Last Thursday, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas warned in a speech to the nation that Russia could disconnect the Baltics from the electricity grid. 

[MRT: There are several conflicting news streams, one from Norway, another from USA and then from Baltic states. Norway was the whistle-blower and informed USA and its allies. The perpetrator, the UK, seemed to release a false flag intel that Russia was aiming at another key infrastructure.] 


DATA ABOUT PROTECTING BORNHOLM AREA AT SEA:

9 - 14 Sept 2022 - The two German military vessels spent a total of six days...

... cruising in close proximity to the two later explosion sites. The vessels in question were equipped with sophisticated sensors for picking up signals and movements both over and under water.

21 - 23 Sep 2022 - DK/SWE: Five days before the pipeline blasts,... 

The „Visby’s“ route between 21 and 24 September. On midday of 22 September, the Swedish warship sped to a location near what would become explosion site #2 four days later. (The dotted lines indicate a gap in tracking data.)


22 Sept 2022 - RU boat Sedov 30 nm from the NS1 damage site.

 

CONCLUSSION:

-> This evidence points to the presence of deceptive intelligence that distracted attention from the true attack location.

-> Several Baltic states, Poland, Germany, Sweden, Norway... heightened their alert levels around the attack timeframe, indicating a recognition of potential threats.

THE THREAT TO UNDERSEA INFRASTRUCTURE WAS WELL KNOWN.

WRONG ASSET HAS BEEN PROTECTED LIKELY INTENTIONALLY. 

THE BORNHOLM AREA WAS UNPROTECTED 15 - 21/22 SEPTEMBER 2022,

THE AREA WAS SEMI-PROTECTED AFTERWARDS AS SHIPS SEEMED TO CONDUCT ANTI-SUBMARINE MOVES WHICH INDICATES THAT THE "ASSAULT SYSTEM (SUBMARINE, MINI-SUB AND/OR UN/MANNED SUBMERSIBLE)" WAS STILL IN THE AREA. 

-> The JEF was at this point silent, the NATO dysfunctional unable to stop one member from attacking key European infrastructure. 
 
-> These elements collectively paint a picture of intentional misdirection and operational readiness that further implicates the UK in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline.