Wednesday, November 20, 2024

212 - Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen spills beans and nobody notices

What did Putin say in his previous speech actually?


SUMMARY: 

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed serious concerns regarding Putin's accusations that Anglo-Saxon powers were behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. Her statement that "things can happen that we have not had the imagination to imagine" suggests she is wary of potential retaliatory actions from Russia as a response to these events. She emphasized the importance of allied cooperation.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Potential Retaliation: Frederiksen voiced apprehensions about possible Russian responses to the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. 

Putin's Accusations: Putin has accused "Anglo-Saxon" powers of orchestrating the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, framing it as an attack on European energy infrastructure.

Timing of Statements: There are indications that Putin's remarks were strategically timed to align with Frederiksen's visit to London. 

 Uncertainty Among Allies: Her statement raises questions about the reliability of certain allies. 

Investigative Concern: The author of the blog questions the depth of the investigation regarding Putin's claims leading up to the Nord Stream incident. 

Broad Implications: The author suggests that Putin's sweeping accusations implicate various entities, including MAINLY British officials but not restricted to them.

Further Information Available: The blog post also invites readers to explore Patreon content for additional insights into the Nord Stream incident.

DATA:

01 Oct 2022 - Metter Frederiksen "Things can happen that we have not had the imagination to imagine"

We are vulnerable, we are worried, and we are in very, very close dialogue with our allies.

 [MRT: Which allies? Are all allies still allies or is she worried that some allies have become unpredictable? Is she in the know who is the Rogue State Actor?]

No country can handle this task alone, says Mette Frederiksen... I listen a lot to what Putin says. Both in his speech yesterday, but also on other occasions.

[MRT: What did he actually say the day before? How many looked into this? The other times she could mean Putin´s pre-Nordstream warning which was supposed to be a soft-deterrence for Truss and Johnson not to go forward with their mission - read here: 113 - Russian nuclear positioning before the Nordstream is attacked

And I notice that it is said directly from Putin's side that several different weapons and methods may be used.

[MRT: He certainly spoke about retaliation. But what else did he say?]

30 Sept 2022 - RU: Putin says 'Anglo-Saxon' powers blew up Nord Stream pipelines
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday directly accused "Anglo-Saxon" powers of blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.

"The sanctions were not enough for the Anglo-Saxons: they moved onto sabotage," Putin said. "It is hard to believe but it is a fact that they organised the blasts on the Nord Stream international gas pipeline."

[MRT: Interestingly she just visited London. Was Putin´s statement timed somehow to her meeting?]

30 Sept 2022 - RU: Putin: Anglo-Saxons out to destroy EU energy infrastructure

He also accused the West of sabotaging the Russia-built gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea to Germany. Putin said the "Anglo-Saxons" have turned from sanctions to "terror attacks," sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in what he described as an attempt to "destroy the European energy infrastructure."

[MRT: Not naming one state is for a purpose. What he is saying that the perpetrator was making sure factions aligned with their policy were also onboard - aka British Royals and old money in a New World. By not naming a certain highest official of a country he also points that the mission was a long term and that is also a case of Truss who took over Boris Johnson as a new UK´s PM.]


Tuesday, November 19, 2024

211 - NETCOM: Enabling Decision Dominance! & Nordstream affair

- on 23-09-2022 -

...just 3 days after Norway blew a whistle.
...just 3 days before NS is blown up.


SUMMARY: 

This post explores a U.S. Army NETCOM meeting centered on "Enabling Decision Dominance," placing it alongside the Nord Stream pipeline incident while referencing claims of U.S. foreknowledge or involvement.
Mortymer's Nordstream Hypothesis crime sequence suggests that Norway acted as a whistleblower, warning the USA and likely its allies about the UK's mission prior to the attack. The meeting of NETCOM fits the narrative of a planned event.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

The NETCOM meeting aimed to bolster communication and decision-making strategies.

The meeting timing could be more than just a coincidence given that just a few days befre this event an important meeting happened in Norfolk, USA.

Notable figures, Viktor Orbán and Radosław Sikorski, are cited in the blog as alleging U.S. involvement in the Nord Stream sabotage.

DATA:

23 Sept 2022 - USA: NETCOM Leaders Meet to Discuss Crosstalk

Where Communication is Key

The U.S. Army’s Network Enterprise Technology Command (NETCOM) put it into overdrive this week as the Army’s enclave-network organization conducted a three-day Senior Leader Development venue to help hyper-focus the command's mission set to meet the needs of its’ customers - the Army and its’ Joint Service mission partners - as more than 50 senior members of the global command met to take on this monumental goal held at the NETCOM Headquarters in Greely Hall, Fort Huachuca, Ariz..

All the discussion helped reinforce the command’s new mission motto titled, NETCOM: Enabling Decision Dominance!


RELATED POSTS:





OTHER RELATED POSTS: 

111 - The USS Task Force 61/2 deployment in the Baltic sea during September 2022



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Friday, November 15, 2024

210 - Law: Definition of the crime of aggression and the Nordstream affair


source: here
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SUMMARY:

This post explores the definition of the crime of aggression under international law, referring to the Rome Statute and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314. It discusses how this definition applies to the Nord Stream pipeline incident, considering the Crime Sequence Reconstruction conducted during the investigation. This reconstruction indicates that elements of the UK government planned, organized, and executed the mission to sabotage critical European energy infrastructure. Additionally, it examines the current public claim that the incident was carried out by a semi-governmental Ukrainian group of divers using a yacht named Andromeda.

KEY TAKEAWAY:

To constitute the crime of aggression, three foundational elements must be present:

A perpetrator exercising control over state action. 

Engagement in the planning or execution of the act. 

The act itself constituting a significant violation of the UN Charter.


DATA:

Definition of the crime of aggression

The crime of aggression is defined in art. 8bis in the Rome Statute of the ICC adopted at the 2010 Review Conference in Kampala. In essence, three elements are required:

First, the perpetrator must be a political or military leader , ie a “person in a position effectively to exercise control over or to direct the political or military action of a State.

[MRT: The prime suspect is Liz Truss as the head of UK´s military and a small group in the UK government]

Second, the Court must prove that the perpetrator was involved in the planning, preparation, initiation or execution of such a State act of aggression.

[MRT: Which court? The international investigation has been declined/prevented.]

Third, such a State act must amount to an act of aggression in accordance with the definition contained in General Assembly Resolution 3314 , and it must, by its character, gravity and scale, constitute a manifest violation of the UN Charter. This implies that only the most serious forms of illegal use of force between States can be subject to the Court's jurisdiction. Cases of lawful individual or collective self-defence, as well as action authorized by the Security Council are thus clearly excluded.

For more analysis of the definition, please consult our Handbook . Article 8 bis reads as follows:

Article 8 bis
Crime of aggression


1. For the purpose of this Statute, “crime of aggression” means the planning, preparation, initiation or execution, by a person in a position effectively to exercise control over or to direct the political or military action of a State, of an act of which aggression, by its character, gravity and scale, constitutes a manifest violation of the Charter of the United Nations.

2. For the purpose of paragraph 1, “act of aggression” means the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations. Any of the following acts, regardless of a declaration of war, shall, in accordance with United Nations General Assembly resolution 3314 (XXIX) of 14 December 1974, qualify as an act of aggression:

(a) The invasion or attack by the armed forces of a State of the territory of another State, or any military occupation, however temporary, resulting from such invasion or attack, or any annexation by the use of force of the territory of another State or part thereof;

[MRT: Not this one obviously,..] 

(b) Bombardment by the armed forces of a State against the territory of another State or the use of any weapons by a State against the territory of another State;

[MRT: Nordstream pipelines are incorporated in Switzerland and ownership differs. They are located in EEZs of DK and SWE.]

(c) The blockade of the ports or coasts of a State by the armed forces of another State;

[MRT: Note the case of calls for closing Danish straights for Russian trade and ships, it did not happen and Russian has voiced that such act would be considered an act of aggression.] 

(d) An attack by the armed forces of a State on the land, be it or air forces, or marine and air fleets of another State;

[MRT: Attack my marine forces of a state on marine - seems to qualify. The phrasing is a bit unclear.] 

(e) The use of armed forces of one State which are within the territory of another State with the agreement of the receiving State, in contravention of the conditions provided for in the agreement or any extension of their presence in such territory beyond the termination of the agreement;

[MRT: I guess Sweden and Denmark has used this clause, JEF connected. They were checking whether the submarine was in their TZs]

(f) The action of a State in allowing its territory, which it has placed at the disposal of another State, to be used by that other State for perpetrating an act of aggression against a third State

[MRT: I guess Sweden and Denmark has used this clause, JEF connected. They were checking whether the submarine was in their TZs] 

(g) The sending by or on behalf of a State of armed bands, groups, irregulars or mercenaries, which carry out acts of armed force against another State of such gravity as to amount to the acts listed above, or its substantial involvement therein.

[MRT: This act could be considered if Nordstream attack was done by non-state actor on behalf of a state.] 

 

RELATED POSTS 

209 - Law expert opinion: Damages to submarine cables and pipelines in time of peace and war: the nord stream sabotage


OTHER RELATED POSTS: 

209 - Law expert opinion: Damages to submarine cables and pipelines in time of peace and war: the nord stream sabotage

What are the opinions of law experts regarding the event?

SUMMARY

A legal expert assesses the implications of the Nord Stream sabotage, revealing the limitations of current international law in safeguarding undersea infrastructure during both peace and conflict. The exploration of piracy law as a potential avenue for recourse highlights the intricacies in attributing blame amid hybrid warfare tactics. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

The Nord Stream sabotage has underscored the vulnerability of submarine cables and pipelines. 

Current international regulations, particularly UNCLOS, fall short of adequately protecting these infrastructures in times of peace. 

The law of piracy may be invoked for damages incurred beyond national jurisdiction. 

International Humanitarian Law (IHL) governs wartime actions, yet its application in hybrid warfare situations is fraught with complexity. 

This incident reveals the intersectionality of various branches of international law, including the law of the sea, piracy law, and IHL. 

The interplay of ambiguous evidence and competing theories surrounding the sabotage complicates the assignment of responsibility.

Evidence found in this investigation indicates that several states may have had prior knowledge of the attack.


DATA:

NAME: Law expert opinion: Damages to submarine cables and pipelines in time of peace and war: the nord stream sabotage

AUTHOR: Daniel Hernández Benito

Source: https://amsterdamlawforum.org/articles/487/files/66a0a2b3c65d0.pdf

Downloaded at: https://amsterdamlawforum.org/articles/10.37974/ALF.487

Abstract:

In late 2022, the Nord Stream sabotage put a spotlight on the vulnerability of submarine infrastructures like cables and pipelines and underscored the importance of protecting them against intentional damage. UNCLOS provisions are relevant in time of peace. However, legal design and state practice make them insufficient, yet the law of piracy could be a last recourse against private actors. Moreover, in time of war, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, states must resort to IHL, which protects infrastructures not exclusively serving neutral states. This work underscores the convergence of different disciplines of international law.

[MRT: It is worth to read the whole paper to get better understanding of applied law.]

V. Conclusion

As Travers Twiss affirmed in 1880, ‘[t]he great arterial lines of telegraphs have become indispensable for the circulation of the political lifeblood so necessary to maintain the vitality of our modern international state system.’97 Now, this statement can be also applied to pipelines that, like Nord Stream, supply nations with the resources they need to carry out their ordinary activities. Their importance justifies interest in their protection, but, as we have seen, this protection may be deficient.

[MRT: Interesting point, is this why Russia has lately put SWE, DK, GER to court? For their failure to protect??? This investigation shows that USA and allies had prior knowledge about the possible attack against the pipeline system.] 

To begin with, critical undersea infrastructure laid in the territorial sea falls within the territorial jurisdiction of the state, which may protect them, as in Sweden.

[MRT: Note that both blast sites were outside Territorial zones (TZ) but in EEZ of DK and SWE. Note also that the SWE investigator was investgating whether Swedish TZ was USED for launching of the attack. This COULD mean that Sweden was checking if there would be any legal consequences. ONe of such scenario COULD a mother submarine in EZ sending "a last mile delivery" minisubmarine (or similar) into DK, SWE TZs.] 

[MRT: The EEZs in the Baltic sea] 

In contrast, those laid in the EEZ and the high seas face two challenges.


[MRT: Note that DK, SWE ships which were checking/protecting something a week before the event. Their paths in the EEZ were classified. Why? Would it be possible to distinguish for example that they have conducted anti-submarine/anti terrorism/police missions?]

On one hand, there is little leeway for states to prevent the laying of these cables and pipelines for security reasons as shown by Sweden’s reluctant acceptance to grant the permit for the Nord Stream project crossing its EEZ. On the other hand, states have failed to protect them despite having prescription and enforcement jurisdiction on the grounds of the nationality principle.

[MRT: This post shows that there was some knowledge about impending threat to infrastructure and security in the Baltic sea - each and every state has been conducting some police and/or naval exercises, including Russia - post here] 

Hence, relevant provisions in criminal codes – where existent – lack proper enforcement mechanisms.

[MRT: Is this what the Rishi Sunak´s 2017 is about? Could THAT be a reason WHY pipelines were attacked in the first place? Check post 051 - Rishi Sunak´s 2017 report about vulnerability of subsea internet cables

Finally, the law of the sea in times of peace offers an alternative instrument, the law of piracy, which, following a broad interpretation and abandoning the two-ships rule, could be applied universally to subjects acting without the consent of a state and causing damage to property in areas beyond national jurisdiction.

In times of war, these rules remain largely applicable but for some modulations. First, submarine cables and pipelines exclusively serving the belligerents and constituting legitimate military objectives – presumptively all, since there is some agreement that they are of a military nature (Rule 83 f) OM) – may be cut at any point (Rule 40.12 SRM).

[MRT: At the moment of the attack the UK (prime suspect) was not at a declared war state with Russian Fderation, Germany, Netherland nor France. Note that the definition of "property" differs in case of NS1 and NS1. Both are icorporated in Switzerland but,... The NS1 is a 51% owned by Gazprom in which the Majority stake is Russian State through several agencies. The 49% stake is EU companies in which states of GER, FRA and DUT have certain share. The NS2 case is different,, it is fully owned by Gazprom and same shareholders as in NS1 have provided loan in sae 49% proportions. Since the NS2 is fully owned by Gazprom in which the majority stake has the Russian state it is a de facto attack against a property of Russian state - it could under certain condition be seen as a "causus belli" (declaration of war). Law experts need to look into this. Check also post about 154 - UNCLOS - The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea AND Nordstream

However, those not exclusively serving the belligerents and involving at least a neutral state, like Nord Stream under the ‘qualified neutrality’ paradigm, must be protected.

[MRT: There are some indices, like from the head of German Navy that they were trying to protect key subsea infrastructure but ultimately failed. Note that it is ALSO possible that the USS Kearsarge group has LEFT the Baltic sea for the very reason, that they did not need to protect the pipeline post here: 111 - The USS Task Force 61/2 deployment in the Baltic sea during September 2022. Note also that Norwegian State Secretary Eivind Vad Petersson attended a meeting with the marine insurance company Gard on 26 Sept 2022 about challenges in connection with the sanctions against Russia.] 

In any case, the availability of remedies to respond to such a violation of the law of neutrality under the law of state responsibility and the law of the use of force clashes with the emergence of hybrid warfare, which blurs the responsibility of states and confuses the final picture. Nord Stream’s case is particularly telling in this sense, as several theories regarding its authorship remain alive nine months after it happened, and no decisive evidence has been published.

[MRT: This investigation shows that there is enough data/evidence which should be looked at. There is a possibility and the investigation looks like shows that the affair fills the Definition of the crime of aggression

Lastly, there is a further lesson that we can learn from this study: the security of submarine cables and pipelines, embodied here in Nord Stream, is at the centre of an area of convergence between the law of the sea, the law of piracy and international humanitarian law.

These are distinct legal frameworks, but they all help to address the problems that arise when an incident like this takes place. Not only do they offer different alternatives depending on the characterization of the author – a ship flying the country’s flag or a foreign one, a pirate or a state agent – but they also provide states with imbricated regimes that can tackle different aspects of the same problem.

[MRT: I have realized this very legal issue at the very moment the affair happened and was surprised that some VIPs were very fast able to define the event as "sabotage" while Russia and Ukraine called the even a "terrorist act". Looking n this issue who said what I collected statements in this post: 030 - Who said it is a "Sabotage" first?. It is impossible that certain top politicians knew that it was "sabotage" - this then proves that they KNEW who has done it and they also knew motives.] 

For instance, international humanitarian law enshrines the sanctity of the territorial waters of neutral states and Article 19 UNCLOS allows states to restrict passages that are not innocent.

[MRT: Would be interesting to learn what orders German and other navies had while they run their naval operations in September 2022. Some parts of those naval exercises were policing and anti terrorist actions.] 

Similarly, where a cable has been damaged in a manner that may not be consistent with international humanitarian law rules described in Section 4, the PCSC establishes the right to board and visit foreign ships beyond territorial waters and allows the collection of necessary information. Yet this does not apply under UNCLOS and – what is more – to pipelines and harms security in waters beyond national jurisdiction.

In conclusion, a comprehensive study of the international protection of submarine cables and pipelines with the occasion of the Nord Stream sabotage shows the complexity of a subject in which different fields of international law overlap.

 Although a systematic review of existing international instruments can shed some light on the legal definition of diverse damages, it also shows that the gap is still open.

 

RELATED POSTS:






OTHER RELATED POSTS: 

167 - About the NATO statement: "deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage"



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