Nord Stream 2 is led and fully owned by Gazprom,
with half of the funding provided by Germany's Uniper and BASF's Wintershall unit,
Anglo-Dutch company Shell , Austria's OMV and Engie
in form of loans making 49% of the value,
the same proportional as shareholder division in case on Nord Stream AG (NS1).
PRELUDE
In January 2022 international relations surrounding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were notably tense. The construction of Nord Stream 2 was fully completed on September 10, 2021 but all legal certificates were still not approved and new hurdles seemed to appear on the horizon. The year started with important announcement. On January, 1 2022 - Russian president Putin said that "Nord Stream 2 link ready to calm gas prices". The biggest geopolitical game of the century was on.
THE NORDSTREAM AFAIR STARTED LONG TIME BEFORE ITS FINAL BLOW-UP PHASE IN SEPTEMBER 2022
THE YEAR 2022 - JANUARY 2022:
The West was not united. The US, UK, and Ukraine pushed for its halt in response to possible Russian aggression toward Ukraine. While the UK continued its hard rhetoric from 2021 (215) the situation in the USA was different.
Trump originally imposed sanctions against Nordstream 2 but then Biden in autumn 2021 lifted them.
Biden´s administration was hoping back in 2021 to foster closer cooperation with Berlin. The USA political spectrum was not of the same opinion, some republicans and democrats voiced dissatisfaction with Biden´s decision but overall the US official line was to allow Germany to commission its important energy project. (...POST in draft...)
Biden´s administration was hoping back in 2021 to foster closer cooperation with Berlin. The USA political spectrum was not of the same opinion, some republicans and democrats voiced dissatisfaction with Biden´s decision but overall the US official line was to allow Germany to commission its important energy project. (...POST in draft...)
Meanwhile, Germany initially aimed to detach the pipeline from geopolitical tensions seeing the issue of commissioning separate from the Ukraine conflict but later after pressure from these two allies signaled a readiness to impose penalties or pause the project should Russia attack Ukraine. Let´s look how that evolved:
On January, 4 2022 the CEO of Uniper, the importer of Russian gas, clarified that "Nord Stream 2 go-ahead could come in mid-2022". On January, 6 2022 a poll was released: "A majority of Germans are in favor of the Russian Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2 starting operations."
Nord Stream 2 pipeline emerged as a significant point of contention between Russia and Western nations, particularly the US and UK. The UK pushed Europe to restrict itself from Russian energy while the US started to see the project as leverage for Russia against Europe and a potential threat to Ukraine's security. Realizing that there would be penalties for Germany if they would not certify Nord Stream 2 then the UK changed its position proposing that the commissioning could be conditional. (155) The UK slowly pushed the envelope further and further.
In February the German government has been worried about being sued by the fossil fuel companies behind the Russian gas pipeline under the Energy Charter Treaty. They feared investor-state-dispute settlement (ISDS) claims under the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), of which Germany is one of 53 members. (155)
Complete stopping Nord Stream 2 would have legal repercussions for the German government. If German authorities put a final stop to the use of the completed pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 company would likely resort to legal action and demand compensation. The German government could be faced on top of that with a compensation claim brought forward by the Nord Stream 2 AG operator and other shareholders. There were legitimate expectations of the plaintiff, for example positive signals given to Nord Stream 2 by receiving construction permits for the pipeline, are important arguments; while a changing political situation, even if caused by a crisis like the one in Ukraine, does not count as a valid argument for cancelling the project, legal expert Gabriel Lentner told Tagesspiegel Background. (162)
The mission was likely first to pause or freeze the project, then a solution to postpone the project indefinitely or get to rid of it altogether was likely planned for following stages. The development did not look like organic progress but a planned hit which was later confirmed by Jens Stoltenberg just after the attack "The explosions were not a coincidence. They were carefully planned.". (183)
The mission was likely first to pause or freeze the project, then a solution to postpone the project indefinitely or get to rid of it altogether was likely planned for following stages. The development did not look like organic progress but a planned hit which was later confirmed by Jens Stoltenberg just after the attack "The explosions were not a coincidence. They were carefully planned.". (183)
On January, 6 2022 The UK Foreign Secretary Announced on her visit in Kyiv that the Russia's Only Path Forward Is De-Escalation With Ukraine. "Any further military incursion into Ukraine would bring massive consequences, including coordinated sanctions to impose a severe cost on Russia's interests and economy," Truss said on Nord Stream, "and I'm working with allies and partners to highlight the strategic risks of this project." hinting European allies that "Europe must reduce its dependence on Russian gas," Truss added. She was urging and lobbying heavily Nato allies to block Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline already in 2021. (003, 041)
On January, 6 2022 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called on the EU and Germany to block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project if Russia renews its aggression towards Ukraine. (104) A suitable solution has been found. In another instance on same day later on January, 6 2022 Blinken stated that: "Nord Stream 2 could become Europe's leverage against Russia". The delayed certification process was a compromise how to postpone the launching of the Nord Stream 2 twin pipeline. (104, 161)
This tripolar division was about to shape the European geo-political landscape in following months. These three major political positions, namely Germany representing European energy security fundamentals wanting to go ahead but being open to postponement, the UK being the hardest and least effected opponent would Russian exports be cut, and the USA with its split rationalization of on one hand understanding Germany needs to import energy as it lacks own hydrocarbon reserves, but being opposed to over-reliance on one exporter, were clearly causing tensions. It was the root case for the instability which led to the Nordstream affair and how exactly it was shaped.
Concerning those exaggerated worries about Russia using Nord Stream 2 as an energy weapon.
Atlantic Council quantified in 2021 that traditionally, Ukraine has made $3 billion a year on transit fees, which have fallen to less than $2 billion a year now that Russia has reduced its transit volumes after having cut its supplies and diverted them to NS1. Poland and Belarus probably each receive transit fees of about $500 million a year. (128)
Pipeline deals are made long term and EU rules specify contractual obligations of parties. How much were these worries justifiable is unclear but in few months Angela Merkel stated that these worries about Russia using Nord Stream as an energy weapon were void. (103) In June 2022 she stated that: "The theory at the time was: If Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will no longer supply gas through Ukraine or even attack it." Merkel pointed out that Russia then attacked Ukraine on February 24, when gas was not yet being piped through Nord Stream 2. “In this sense, gas was not a weapon,” said Merkel.
The EU regulation about legal separation of gas exporter and pipeline operator, so called "Unbundling" postulates that in the event of the unavailability of pipelines, the contract does not invalidate the exporter the contractual duty to deliver. There was an unfounded assumption that pipelines in Ukraine could be knocked out and Russia could push and force the West to open Nord Stream 2 instead. IN case of unavailability of pipelines parties decide which alternative pipeline system will be used and share transport fees. These would be null as Nord Stream pipelines run almost exclusively through non Territorial waters of stated in Baltic sea.
But back to the main story. The first to counter the almost inevitable commissioning were British politicians. On Thursday January, 6 2022 in a debate UK´s Foreign secretary Liz Truss proclaimed: "I have been very clear about our position on Nord Stream 2. More broadly, we need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. On the discussions taking place in various formats, we cannot have a situation in which Russian aggression is rewarded in any way." and "It is clear that we need to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian gas." In the same discussion she specified that: "Britain remains opposed to Nord Stream 2, and I am working with allies and partners to highlight the strategic risks of this project. I believe that the best way to challenge Russia is from a position of strength. We have to be clear that there would be severe consequences if there were to be an incursion into Ukraine, and we have to reduce European strategic dependency on Russia. That is how we will succeed."
Her statements are not surprising, after Brexit the UK lost its voice to effect the political and economical direction of EU countries. More than that, the UK due to its location, its imports from Norway and possibility to import LNG through it own LNG terminal make the UK least effected on dependence on Russian hydrocarbons yet they were most outspoken about the need to cut all Russian energy exports. (105, 107)
Fundamental were as follows: In the aftermath of Brexit, the UK actively sought to redefine its geopolitical role, leveraging its historical ties and military alliances to shape international relations to its benefits. This was highlighted in a paper released at the end of the month. The Integrated Review of UK foreign policy "Global Britain Strikes Back" from January, 27 2022 emphasized the importance of exhibiting "Global Britain" through decisive actions, steering away from the EU's approach and asserting a unique identity on the world stage. The UK’s Integrated Review laid down the challenge that ‘What Global Britain means in practice is best defined by actions rather than words’. There was a widening gulf Between the EU and UK. (044)
Based on this paper The EU has been completely side-lined by Russia. This has reinforced the Cold War maxims that the US and NATO are the leading European security actors. It vindicated the UK’s policy of a strong NATO having primacy. The UK was seeking ways how to be again important on World´s geopolitical arena and how to influence its near neighbor politics from outside EU. The UK positioned itself as a pivotal player in NATO, which it deemed the primary security actor in Europe. This stance was reinforced by the sentiment that the EU had been sidelined, highlighting a growing divide between British and European security strategies. But it was not just about political and military leadership, UK´s motivations were also because of the post Brexit economical insecurity (027)
Events in Ukraine were one issue but after September 2022 the Nordstream affair has polarized and rewrote of the European security order by force by cutting important economic cooperative link and interdependence. One day after Nordstream bombings the head of NATO Jens Stoltenberg declares that "...Then there is, of course, another type of escalation, and that is an escalation beyond Ukraine (183) clearly stating that the issue is of another kind.
The UK's focus on a strong NATO alliance purportedly pointed to a future where its influence could eclipse EU initiatives, further accentuating the UK’s narrative as an independent power capable of shaping its own destiny. There were objectively differing views on European security between the UK and the EU, with the UK emphasizing its independent role within NATO (106)
The UK’s strategic decisions were also shaped by the inadequacies of EU strategies, such as the EU's Strategic Compass, which failed to adapt to the new realities posed by Russian aggression. This discrepancy allowed the UK to argue that its absence from EU security frameworks did not inhibit its influence, but rather validated its independent strategy as being more suited to current challenges
For the UK the absence of an institutional defence and security relationship with the EU meant also that it was not tied by joint strategies and rules. It could act independently where it suited them. Both the Integrated Review and the first draft of the EU’s Strategic Compass declared respectively that: ‘We (the UK) will cooperate with the EU on matters of security and defence as independent partners, where this is in our interest’ and ‘We (the EU) remain open to a broad and ambitious security and defence engagement with the United Kingdom’.
Interesting accident happened in early January. Disruption at one of two undersea cables to Svalbard was noticed on January, 7 2022. The cable is operated by Space Norway, and also serves the SvalSat park of more than 100 satellite antennas. SvalSat is today the world’s largest commercial ground station with worldwide customers.
On January, 8 2022 UK news reported the incident. Later investigation revealed that a fishing ship dragging a net broke accidentally cables. Not knowing that the UK defence chief Ben Wallace stated: "Russia cutting underwater cables could be an act of war". The next day on January, 9 2022 Admiral Tony Radakin said that "Any attempt by submarines at damage would be treated as ‘act of war’.
This is a peculiar development because the international law is known not to protect key infrastructure in international waters. A fact well known in navy cycles at least since 2017 when Rishi Sunak published his report about "Undersea cables - indispensable, insecure" which had a foreword by Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (051). Those same statements by Wallace and Radakin are eye browsing because without any investigation they proclaim strongly that a noncritical incident outside Teritorial Zone of the UK could be classified as an attack against the UK. This is strongly against international UNCLOS rules - The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea AND Nordstream. (154). Why this overreaction happened and whether it was intentional is unknown. Note that attack on one NATO member would mean an attack against the alliance. Was the UK trying to play the incident?
In the USA on January, 13 2022 voting the Senate Rejects Nord Stream 2 Sanctions Bill - S.3436 - Protecting Europe's Energy Security Implementation Act. White House needed 60 pro votes but only 55 were for, other 40 were against. The decision was not to approve the proposal by GOP Senator Ted Cruz who backed the bill to deter further Russian invasion of Ukraine..
The voting was commented by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov who told Channel One Russia on Thursday 13 Jan 20022 that: "The situation with Nord Stream 2 shows that Germany does not have the freedom to pursue its own economic interests".
Germany tried to separate the issue of Nord Stream from European security topics promoting it as purely economic multilateral project which actually brings countries together to cooperate. On January, 9 2022 The Secretary General of Germany's ruling party urged not to mix Nord Stream 2 with politics Then German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht warned against confusing the disagreement over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with the conflict over Ukraine on January, 13 2022. Her statement came to the German regional broadcaster RBB before a meeting between the EU's foreign and defense ministers in Brest in France on Thursday. (161)
Unimaginable happened on January, 18 2022 when German Chancellor Scholz said that Germany could halt pipeline if Russia attacks Ukraine. Olaf Scholz indicated he *is* prepared to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacks Ukraine. "It's clear that in the event of a military intervention against Ukraine, there will be a high price to pay, and that everything will be up for discussion"
Germany was still trying to separate the project from Ukrainian crisis. The Bundestag said that "Opposition to Nord Stream 2 threatens the EU's energy security. The project was and will remain primarily economic and energy", this was noted Steffen Kotre, member of the Bundestag Committee on Energy and Climate Affairs on January 19, 2022. He added that: "Different parties are trying, based on different motives, to mix together the importance of Europe's energy supply with geopolitical interests. This project was and will remain primarily economic and energy. Using it as a tool to achieve other political goals is wrong and jeopardizes Europe's energy supply,"
Russia was also warning on January, 19 2022 that delaying the approval of Nord Stream 2 damages Europe.
Liz Truss was following up the case very closely commenting development on January 18, 2022 stating that: "Good development. Nordstream II is not compatible with Russia's aggressive actions. Europe needs to reduce its dependence on Russian gas." (002)
In her Twitter account, Truss wrote that Europe should reduce its dependence on Russian gas, hinting at the possibility of freezing the gas pipeline by the German government in the event of an escalation of the situation around Ukraine. On January, 19 2022 Foreign Secretary Truss said: "Nord Stream-2 is not compatible with Russia’s actions". (106)
In her early years in Whitehall, Liz Truss was known to civil servants as the “human hand grenade”, a nickname for her that Boris Johnson has since adopted. Like many of the memes around Truss, it is one she has embraced with gusto as stated on January, 20 2022. The next day on January, 21 2022 Liz Truss declares '100 per cent' loyalty to Boris Johnson.
The USA expressed the same wishes. On January, 20 2022 Blinken on Nord Stream 2 ahead of his meeting with Scholz tonight: "Nord Stream 2 is leverage for Germany, the United States and our allies". It is unclear how actions between UK and USA were coordinated.
The rationale for using the Nord Stream 2 certification postponement as a leverage was explained on 8 June 2022 by Angela Merkel in the interview: "But it wasn't an easy decision. The thesis at the time was that once Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will stop supplying gas through Ukraine or even attack it." The West ensured that gas was routed through Ukraine anyway, and she continued to receive transit fees. Merkel pointed out that Russia then attacked Ukraine on February 24, when gas was not yet routed through Nord Stream 2 . "In this sense, gas was not a weapon," Merkel said." (050)
The unusual Foreign Office revelation on Saturday night on January, 22 2022 that British intelligence had unmasked a plot to install a Russian puppet government in Ukraine was issued alongside a lengthy release from Downing Street in effect claiming Boris Johnson was now at the helm of an anti-Russian alliance. Johnson in a Mansion House speech in November 2021 had broken with the previous approach of polite but muted opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, saying it was “a major strategic problem for European security”. Johnson also have raised eyebrows in European capitals with his announcement that he was setting up calls with G7 leaders to form a sanctions coalition that would hit “Putin-supporting oligarchs”. It was confirmed that the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, at Johnson’s instruction, would be travelling to Moscow, and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, may go to Kyiv and Moscow.
For undisclosed purpose Boris Johnson met president Zelensky on a surprise visit to Ukraine, the news come later on 22, January 2022 that UK sent more than 100 SAS and SBS special forces advisors to Kiev. Were there some early plans already developed? Early next month the UK switched into playing with the idea how the UK could play crucial role if Russia turned off gas taps to Europe. (163)
This news is interesting because Russia later accused the UK´s Special Boat Services team (SBS) of being directly involved in the Nordstream affair. (199) It is also interesting as later Mats Ljungqvist, the main Swedish investigator implicitly rejected the Andromeda story (214).
The UK's Special Forces (UKSF of which SAS and SBS are part) have been active in numerous nations since 2011, operating with minimal transparency and oversight. UKSF activities encompass surveillance, training of foreign forces, and potentially covert actions aimed at Russia and China. Several senior British officials have acknowledged a strategic transition toward "remote warfare" and operations below the threshold of conventional conflict. (219) The UK's actions may indicate a trajectory toward early stage of undeclared war with Russia, as suggested by statements from officials such as Ben Wallace. (081)
There were reports that on January, 22 2022 US officials are engaged in talks with Qatar over supplying LNG to EU: "Reports American officials have been in talks with Qatar over supplying European countries with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in case a Russian invasion of Ukraine leads to shortages on the continent", news reports say.
This is a bit in contradiction to the January, 18 2022 when US informs Israel it no longer supports EastMed pipeline to Europe. Washington informed Athens that they no longer support the EastMed project.
The window to effect how to stop the Nordstream 2 was closing fast. The UK senced that the time was running out. On January, 24 2022 Liz truss stated that: "I am very, very concerned about Europe's energy dependence on Russian gas", says Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, she adds "Nord Stream 2 should not go ahead in the event of an incursion into Ukraine".
The security tension between Ukraine and Russia has been steadily worsening. On January, 25 2022 Atlantic Forum discussed “The Future of Euro-Atlantic #Security: The #Russia Challenge”. The Trans-Atlantic link USA-UK-EU could be simply weakened would Russian influence grew too much.
It was known that the Nord Stream 2 must comply with the EU Third Energy Package therefore on January, 26 2022 Nord Stream 2 AG has founded a German subsidiary Gas for Europe GmbH. A statement was issued: "The new company is to become the owner and operator of the 54-kilometre section of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline located in the German territorial waters and the landfall facility in Lubmin, as an independent transmission operator in accordance with the German Energy Industry Act (EnWG)". (160)
To progress with certification on January, 26 2022 Nord Stream 2 AG has founded a German subsidiary Gas for Europe GmbH. To reason for it was that in order to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on German section of the pipeline the operator had to be organised in a legal form under German law. The announced that "The new company was to become the owner and operator of the 54km section of the NS2 Pipeline located in the German territorial waters and the landfall facility in Lubmin as an independent transmission operator in accordance with the German Energy Industry Act. This decision for establishing such independent company has been announced in November 2021 - Gazprom Plans Fully Owned German Unit to Win Pipeline Consent."
In the UK even a Defence Minister gets involved in the pressuring of Germany to use it as a leverage against Russia. On January, 26 2022 - He states he is 'not optimistic Russian invasion can be stopped'. He sees the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to supply gas from Russia, as one of the key bargaining chips in any sanctions package. Germany gets around 40% of its gas supplies from Russia. Wallace met the new German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht. In a so called "salami politics" he is proposing on top of pausing Nordstream 2 project tough economical sanctions.
Step by step under pressure from the US, the UK and Poland the new German government has now agreed to at least consider keeping the taps of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline closed - if President Putin uses military force against Ukraine. Ben Wallace said "Nord Stream 2 is a genuine piece of leverage which we should use for the greater benefit of all allies in Europe".
Under Secretary Victoria Nuland in her Comments on Nord Stream 2 27 Jan 2022 “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”. Negotiations with Germany were still ongoing so Nuland could not disclose exact agreement at this point.
The decision to postpone certification was likely initially for half a year. On January, 30 2022 German regulator expects decision on Nord Stream 2 operator’s certification after June.
The Infamous meme in which US president Biden is framed as Nordstream Bomber has actually its origins in statement by U .S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price on January, 30 2022 where he stated on Wednesday that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine. Since the agreement has not yet been finalized details were not shared with public. "I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward," Price told NPR. "I'm not going to get into the specifics. We will work with Germany to ensure it does not move forward." For the USA it was a conditional political achievement to attempt to use the commissioning as a leverage against Russia not to enter Ukraine, a Sugar or a Whip style incentive or assumed leverage. At this point it was just a commitment that "IF Russia enters Ukraine, the Nordstream 2 will be stalled" (152)
With both the UK and EU recognizing the need for cooperation, the stage was set for a new chapter in British foreign policy that emphasized partnership only when aligned with its own interests. Through these maneuvers, the UK illustrated how it sought to not only survive but thrive in a post-Brexit world, reshaping geopolitics for its own gain.
For the UK those Russian cheap energy exports in general and the Nordstream issue in particular were more serious and their response included lowering income from Russian energy exports, not just postponing Nord Stream 2 which could diminish UK´s weak energy security situation. (027)
On January, 30 2022 in an article "Nord Stream2 stops!" Liz Truss issues ultimatum to Germany 'we cannot allow that to happen'. She specified that: "The construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will need to immediately stop should Russia invade Ukraine in the coming weeks", Liz Truss warned Germany's leader Olaf Scholz.
On January, 31 2022 - Truss stated that: #I had a discussion with my colleague Foreign Minister Baerbock last week about precisely this issue, and I welcome the statements from her and Chancellor Scholz about Nord Stream 2, in which they were very clear that it will not go ahead in the event of a Russian incursion. We do need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. I welcome the work that the United States is doing to look at how supplies can be augmented, and we are working with partners across the middle east. This is a strategic issue for Europe and we do need to reduce dependence on Russian gas—there is no doubt about it."
She also stated that: "I have been very clear about our position on Nord Stream 2. More broadly, we need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. On the discussions taking place in various formats, we cannot have a situation in which Russian aggression is rewarded in any way. It has no auspices over Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we are very clear on that. What we are working on, and what tomorrow’s meeting of Foreign Ministers is about, is making sure that we are co-ordinating our positions across NATO, and we are very clear on those red line."
She also stated that: "I have been very clear about our position on Nord Stream 2. More broadly, we need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. On the discussions taking place in various formats, we cannot have a situation in which Russian aggression is rewarded in any way. It has no auspices over Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we are very clear on that. What we are working on, and what tomorrow’s meeting of Foreign Ministers is about, is making sure that we are co-ordinating our positions across NATO, and we are very clear on those red line."
The same dat January, 31 2022 - Truss proclaimed that "We must wean ourselves and others off dependence on Russian gas. We must target the criminal and corrupt money, and that is what we are determined to do with this extension of our sanctions regime, the most radical that we have put together yet."
The UK´s top leadership was of one voice concerning Russian exports of hydrocarbons. After UK´s Defence minister Wallace met his German counterpart Lambrech and UK´s Foreign minister Truss met ger German counterpart Baerbock political pressure on Germany to abandon Russian energy exports increased. The same pressure was used against other allies. At the same time the UK was trying to find allies in Poland, Ukraine then in other countries.
Issues caused by messy Brexit were piling up. The energy insecurity was increasing, UK´s North sea reserves were drying up, economy lagging vis-a-vis Germany whose factories were humming powered by cheap and plenty piped gas from Russian large reserves. But could the temporary increase of energy price help UK to find new sources? Could the UK switch after 44 years from energy importer to energy exporter? (027)
The energy problem was known, the loss of political influence as well, the foreign policy was communicated clearly. For now the diplomacy and pressure against European allies seemed to work but would that be a lasting solution? From outside the EU and with no leverage like the US had the UK was finding itself that their options to influence European affair were shrinking. The UK was on a mission to find out how to curb Russian bear once and for all. ( 081, 107)
The game had bigger geo-political framework. It is a part of old struggle between major nations. (010)
What happened next month?
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(Part 3 - February - draft for now)
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