CRIME SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION
(MAY 2022)
PART 6/16
(BASED ON NORDSTREAM FILES MASTER DATA-FILE)
...previously: PART 5 (APRIL 2022)
SUMMARY
Part 6 of larger series examining the Nord Stream pipeline incidents.
Exploring DATA from May 2022, contextualizing the incident
This document presents an in-depth investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, particularly focusing on events from May 2022. It suggests that the UK government is a primary suspect, highlighting actions such as escalating sanctions against Russia, strengthening UK-US defense cooperation, and strategically leveraging its energy resources
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Primary Suspect: The investigation identifies elements of the UK government as the primary suspect for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. It suggests that the UK's actions might (also) have been motivated by geopolitical strategies, especially in light of tensions surrounding possible Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
Primary Suspect: The investigation implicates elements of the UK government as prime suspects in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.
Sanctions Overview: In May 2022, the UK significantly intensified sanctions and measures against Russia, targeting key sectors including hydrocarbon exports and financial institutions.
Geopolitical Motivations: The UK's actions appear motivated by geopolitical strategies associated with the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Energy Policy Implications: Relevant to these events are the UK's energy policies, including the potential activation of idle LNG terminals and its transition to a net electricity exporter.
Defense Cooperation: The investigation notes a notable increase in UK-US defense cooperation, alongside the influence of the Atlantic Future Forum.
Official Reports and Statements: Various reports and statements from officials and organizations concerning energy security, sanctions, and the Ukraine conflict are looked at and analysed.
Events in chronological order - MAY 2022
FIRST BORNHOLM INCIDENT OF 2022
This could be a significant news. International laws direct how states interact in Exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and that their military and navy can not enter their Territorial zones (TZ). Given the proximity of Nordstream pipelines to Danish and Swedish TZs this means likely that the excursion near Bornholm was a Russian plane checking on something. The exact path of the plane is unclear and also it is unclear what was the plane looking at if it was possibly checking surface or sub surface threat, perhaps some behaviour which was evaluated as risky.
UK IS RUMPING UP SANCTIONS AND OHER MEASURES
RUSSIAN EXPRORTS FROM HYDROCARBONS ARE IN MAIN FOCUS
Boris Johnson tweets on May 2, 2022: "Nuclear power stations like the one I visited in Hartlepool today are absolutely crucial to weaning us off fossil fuels, including Russian oil and gas. Instead of a new one every decade, we’re going to build one every year, powering homes with clean, safe and reliable energy."
RUSSIAN EXPRORTS FROM HYDROCARBONS ARE IN MAIN FOCUS
Boris Johnson tweets on May 2, 2022: "Nuclear power stations like the one I visited in Hartlepool today are absolutely crucial to weaning us off fossil fuels, including Russian oil and gas. Instead of a new one every decade, we’re going to build one every year, powering homes with clean, safe and reliable energy."
The UK has been pushing companies to exit from Russian markets. This post looks at "Which western companies in Russia’s oil and gas exited before Nordstream affair?". (040). Such actions had consequences. A question reminds as to what extend there was cooperation between UK government and key UK energy companies? Is it possible that the UK was preparing in advance for the future disruptions of Russian hydrocarbon exports? On what basis did BP decide to take the 20 Bln loss on Russian exit? Was the UK government deploying a strategy to protect own companies against possible future Russian retaliation? (106)
BP posts on May 3, 2022 $20B quarterly net loss on Russia exit
Liz Truss on 4 May 2022 posts Tweet: "Today I announce a ban on services exports to Russia. Russian businesses will no longer benefit from the UK’s world class accountancy, consultancy and PR services. We’re making sure that Putin fails in Ukraine."
Liz Truss announces on May 5, 2022 new trade sanctions against Russia to cut off funding to Putin’s war machine.
Liz Truss backs Boris Johnson on May 5, 2022 as the Party scandal happens. "The Prime Minister has apologised and taken responsibility for the mistakes that have been made. I back him 100% - we now need to drive our economy forward post-COVID and ensure Putin loses in Ukraine."
PLANS FOR ATLANTIC FUTURE FORUM (AFF)
On May 5, 2022 Royal navy´s First Sea Lord announced that that HMS Prince of Wales will host AFF’22 Future Atlantic in New York in September. The GB flagship will be hosting "Future Atlantic" conference, bringing together the brightest and most influential thinkers from defence and beyond to strengthen GB and US bonds. "The ‘Summit on the Carrier’ will be important moment to respond to world events and protect the rules based order at Sea Power Conference."
On May 5, 2022 Royal navy´s First Sea Lord announced that that HMS Prince of Wales will host AFF’22 Future Atlantic in New York in September. The GB flagship will be hosting "Future Atlantic" conference, bringing together the brightest and most influential thinkers from defence and beyond to strengthen GB and US bonds. "The ‘Summit on the Carrier’ will be important moment to respond to world events and protect the rules based order at Sea Power Conference."
CAUSAL COMMENTATORS AND REAL THREATS IN BORNHOLM DEEP
It is not any real admissible evidence but rather an important indication of general public opinion politicians may have followed or took inspiration from them. There were more of similar messages, here are another examples: (102)
Interesting about the message to Johnson and Zelenski is that it is highly specific, technical and detailed. Causal readers of news, or general public usually does not know the difference between sea Territorial Zone (TZ) of a country which is integral extension of the land where similar laws apply and trespassing, entering without permission, is guarded by strict rules while Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) follow different rules, under which military ships operate.
This topic has been studied by the future UK´s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in 2017. He published important study about legal vulnerability of key infrastructure installations under international law (051).
The EU was aware of the threats to key infrastructure and published its paper in June 2022 studying "Malicious activity below the threshold of Armed attack" (089). This June´s publication coincides with CIA´s strategic warning from June 2022 (131).
Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) has also studied in September 2022 "Compound attacks" (069). This report combined with some intel may have been behind NOR being a whistle-blowers in the Nordstream affair. (127)
The threat was known in late September as shows the intense activity in the Baltic sea. (179, 217, 225)
The division of EEZs in the Baltic sea:
Danish authorities in past called Russian ambassador to protest whenever Russian plane or ship entered briefly Danish TZ. In 2022 there were four of such instances. It is possible that the perpetrator was testing reaction times.
For example, Russian plane could fly over EEZ but would Russia want to re-check suspicious signals whether a suspicious submarine hides in Danish TZ they would need to ask permission.
Note that both blast locations were just next TZs on the most Western part of the Baltic sea closest to the exit through Danish straights and furthest from Russian radars and monitoring.
Russia has been monitoring and protecting its pipelines through different means. There is radar, satellite, hydro-acoustic sensors, from nearby Kaliningrad a plane can be sent to check the situation very fast and of course ships could reach the area from the port or friendly ship could make an easy detour to look at suspicious activity.
Note also that the Baltic sea depth relief near Bornholm is optimal for submarine operations. Logic hints that the Bornholm Deep if chosen due to its location, geology and proximity to exit from the closed area signals the perpetrator was a non Baltic Sea state who wanted to leave the area as safe as possible - for example submarine operating under some secret forward deployment framework like e.g. JEF (043).
AT THE FOREFRONT USING EVERY ECONOMIC LEVER AT OUR DISPOSAL
CUTTING OFF FUNDING TO PUTIN´S WAR MACHINE
On May 9, 2022 Liz Truss announces new trade sanctions against Russia. "To cut off funding to Putin’s war machine. Over £4bn of goods now subject to trade sanctions including chemicals, plastics and rubber. Putin must fail in Ukraine."
Ukraine announced on May 10, 2022 to halt key Russian gas transit to Europe, use alternative. ++GTSOU, which operates Ukraine’s gas system, said it would suspend flows via the Sokhranivka route from Wednesday, declaring “force majeure,” a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control. The company said in a statement that it could not operate at the Novopskov gas compressor station due to “the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes,” adding that it could temporarily shift the affected flow elsewhere, to the ‘Sudzha’ physical interconnection point located in territory controlled by Ukraine.
Ukraine's gas grid operator announced on May 11, 2022 to suspend Russian gas flows via Sokhranivka. "Ukraine's state-owned gas grid operator GTSOU said on May 10 it had declared force majeure on the transit of Russian gas entering the Ukrainian system at Sokhranivka and would not accept gas at the entry point from May 11." The force majeure declaration, the first of its kind since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, sent European gas prices sharply higher. As of 1430 GMT, the TTF front-month price had jumped 8% to above Eur100/MWh ($106/MWh), according to ICE data, up from Eur93/MWh before the announcement. Ukraine's state-owned gas grid operator GTSOU halted the flow of natural gas through the Sokhranovka transit point, which had transported about one third of all of piped Russian natural gas that transited through Ukraine. It was the first time since the start of Russia's 24 February invasion of Ukraine that natural gas flow through Ukraine was interrupted. The Ukrainian government stated that it would not reopen this pipeline unless it regained control of areas from pro-Russian fighters.
On May 11, 2022 Russia imposed sanctions on European subsidiaries of Gazprom which had been nationalized by European countries. Europe faces gas supply disruption after Russia imposes retaliatory sanctions. Dutch gas prices at the TTF hub, the European benchmark, rose by about 20 percent on Thursday morning. The uptick came after Russia rolled out its sanctions late on Wednesday, mainly on Gazprom’s European subsidiaries including Gazprom Germania, an energy trading, storage and transmission business that Germany placed under trusteeship last month to secure supplies. Moscow also targeted the owner of the Polish part of the Yamal-Europe pipeline that carries Russian gas to Europe, EuRoPol Gaz. The pipeline is jointly owned by Gazprom. “A ban on transactions and payments to entities under sanctions has been implemented,” Gazprom said in a statement. “For Gazprom, this means a ban on the use of a gas pipeline owned by EuRoPol GAZ to transport Russian gas through Poland.” Last year, EU countries got about 155 billion cubic metres of gas from Russia.
Impact of sanctions were studied by different companies. Davies Legal Solutions team consider the impact of the sanctions against Russia on the insurance industry on May 11, 2022 "Russian sanctions and the insurance industry" It describes that: "The challenge now for financial institutions globally is to ensure that their sanctions and AML programmes are sufficiently robust, to ensure effective compliance in this rapidly evolving landscape. For the insurance industry this may cause loss of business and trigger loss claims. Some of the sanctions are directly aimed at blocking Russian entities and interests from accessing global insurance markets, and many other restrictions may affect insurers’ business. The pace of change will be a challenge for the industry and will render companies unable to insure a sanctioned person or reinsure a sanctioned insurer, irrespective of the type of business. While keeping tabs on sanctions as business as usual will continue to be a challenge."
In an interview on May 12 2022 PM Johnson says "Return to normal relations ‘very difficult’ for Russia’s Putin". Asked during an interview on LBC Radio whether Putin could be welcomed back on the global stage if he were to repent, Johnson said: “Repentance is going to be very difficult for Vladimir Putin now ... nothing is impossible, I suppose, but I just cannot see for the life of me how we can renormalize relations with Putin now.”
RUSSIA ENSURES GAZPROM WILL HAVE ENOUGH CAPACITY TO FULFILL THE REQUESTS OF ITS EUROPEAN CUSTOMERS
TASS reported on May 12, 2022 anti-Russian sanctions prohibit Gazprom from using Yamal-Europe for gas transit via Poland. Russian sanctions imposed on a number of foreign energy companies prohibit Gazprom from using the gas pipeline owned by EuRoPol GAZ (a joint venture between Gazprom and the Polish PGNiG, which owns the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline) to pump Russian gas through Poland, the Russian holding’s spokesman Sergey Kupriyanov said on Thursday.
"A ban has been established on transactions and payments in favor of persons under sanctions, in particular, for Gazprom, this means a ban on the use of a gas pipeline owned by EuRoPol GAZ to transport Russian gas through Poland," he said.
The Polish side repeatedly violated the rights of Gazprom as a shareholder of EuRoPol GAZ, and in late April added the Russian company to the sanctions list, blocking the ability to exercise rights to shares and other securities of the joint venture and receive dividends, Kupriyanov said.
Earlier, the Russian government blacklisted 31 companies from Germany, France and other European countries, as well as from Singapore and the USA. In particular, the list includes former European subsidiaries of Gazprom, traders, operators of underground gas storage facilities (UGS), as well as a joint venture between Gazprom and the Polish PGNiG, which owns the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline - EuRoPol GAZ.
TASS also commented on May 12, 2022 in a press review: "Why Biden will meet ASEAN leaders and EU may renegotiate on Nord Stream 2". Experts believe that if the gas transit via Ukraine comes to a halt, it will be difficult to find an alternative, which will pave the way for a resumption of talks on the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Technically, 120 mln cubic meters of gas can be transported through the Sudhza point every day, which almost completely covers the transit that Gazprom pays for under its contract with Ukraine’s Naftogaz, head of the Energy Development Center Kirill Melnikov said. In his view, there are no issues finding an alternative to the Ukrainian route. "The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline is practically idle and one of the Nord Stream 2 lines is also ready for operation though the German regulator has not issued permission for its launch yet," the expert added.
According to Melnikov, even if Russia takes control of the Sudzha point during its special military operation and Ukraine refuses to continue abiding by the transit contract, Gazprom will have enough capacity to fulfill the requests of its European customers, particularly if they move to reduce Russian gas purchases. "If purchases remain the same, Germany will probably need to urgently allow the launch of one of the Nord Stream 2 lines in order to replace the Ukrainian transit route," he noted.
"A ban has been established on transactions and payments in favor of persons under sanctions, in particular, for Gazprom, this means a ban on the use of a gas pipeline owned by EuRoPol GAZ to transport Russian gas through Poland," he said.
The Polish side repeatedly violated the rights of Gazprom as a shareholder of EuRoPol GAZ, and in late April added the Russian company to the sanctions list, blocking the ability to exercise rights to shares and other securities of the joint venture and receive dividends, Kupriyanov said.
Earlier, the Russian government blacklisted 31 companies from Germany, France and other European countries, as well as from Singapore and the USA. In particular, the list includes former European subsidiaries of Gazprom, traders, operators of underground gas storage facilities (UGS), as well as a joint venture between Gazprom and the Polish PGNiG, which owns the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline - EuRoPol GAZ.
TASS also commented on May 12, 2022 in a press review: "Why Biden will meet ASEAN leaders and EU may renegotiate on Nord Stream 2". Experts believe that if the gas transit via Ukraine comes to a halt, it will be difficult to find an alternative, which will pave the way for a resumption of talks on the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Technically, 120 mln cubic meters of gas can be transported through the Sudhza point every day, which almost completely covers the transit that Gazprom pays for under its contract with Ukraine’s Naftogaz, head of the Energy Development Center Kirill Melnikov said. In his view, there are no issues finding an alternative to the Ukrainian route. "The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline is practically idle and one of the Nord Stream 2 lines is also ready for operation though the German regulator has not issued permission for its launch yet," the expert added.
According to Melnikov, even if Russia takes control of the Sudzha point during its special military operation and Ukraine refuses to continue abiding by the transit contract, Gazprom will have enough capacity to fulfill the requests of its European customers, particularly if they move to reduce Russian gas purchases. "If purchases remain the same, Germany will probably need to urgently allow the launch of one of the Nord Stream 2 lines in order to replace the Ukrainian transit route," he noted.
ABOUT BRITAIN´S FUTURE SUPPLY
PREPARING FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE RUSSIAN GAS EXPORT DISRUPTIONS
A UK Insight published on May 12, 2022 at Common´s library: "Where will Britain’s future energy supply come from?". This report describes that a major focus of the Energy Security Strategy is "Expanding home-grown, low-carbon sources for UK energy supply over the next 20 years, alongside commitments to completely remove Russian oil and coal imports by the end of 2022, and Russian gas as soon as possible thereafter." The report notes that: "Russian imports supplied only 2.2% of energy used in the UK in 2021. To account for future changes to gas and oil supply and secure more domestic resources, the Government plans to further utilise North Sea reserves alongside commissioning a scientific review of shale gas extraction."
The Institute for Government (IfG) said the security of the UK’s physical supply will “likely hold up” following possible Russian gas export disruptions to the EU, even without measures from the strategy, due to diversity of supply.
UK WORKS TOWARD G7 JOINT STATEMENT TO DECOUPLE FROM RUSSIAN ENERY
ENDING EUROPE´S DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS UNTIL PUTIN FAILS
On her twitter account Liz Truss posted on May 13, 2022 "Great to see my good friend Dmytro Kubela in Germany. We will continue to support them with the weapons they need. We will not rest until Putin fails and Ukraine prevails"
UK newspapers reported on May 13, 2022 that Truss said: 'We have proved Russia wrong so far' warning to Putin over weapons. We must also continue to starve Putin’s war machine of funding by sanctioning more of those bankrolling his aggression, from oligarchs and banks to energy, gold and service industries. The G7 must keep up the economic pressure. The sanctions straitjacket must be kept on while Putin’s troops are in Ukraine and peace is under threat. "We must push ahead with plans to end Europe’s dependency on Russian oil and gas to ensure they can never again be used as leverage."
The UK government announces on May 13, 2022 that Liz Truss attends the G7 and NATO Foreign Ministers’ Meetings in Germany to use both meetings to galvanise work with allies to win the battle for Ukraine. The Foreign Secretary has called on international allies to go “further and faster” together to support the Ukrainian resistance and constrain any further aggression by the Putin war machine. "Sanctions must remain in place while Russian troops are in Ukraine and peace is threatened… We must never lift sanctions in sensitive areas including critical technology like quantum."
TORY MP and Chairman of the foreign affairs committee Tom Tugendhat on May 14, 2022: "A decade ago, Germany built the first Nord Stream pipeline to solve their energy needs. They bet on Russian gas to fire Berlin's boilers and Munich's power plants. It was a deal with the devil and now the price has become clear. Vladimir Putin's hand on the gas tap is extracting influence across Europe as he murders thousands in Ukraine."
Liz Truss on her twitter account on May 14, 2022: "In Berlin for meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers. Important milestone ahead of the Madrid Summit to shape collective security. On the agenda:
-Further support so 🇺🇦 can defend itself against Russian aggression
- New Strategic Concept and plans for global outlook
- Finland and Sweden NATO membership"
On May 16, 2022 Admiral Sir Ben Key, the First Sea Lord, said it is key for NATO nations to 'contain' the war in Ukraine so that it does not 'accelerate away from us'. Sir Ben told The Daily Telegraph: 'The lessons of history would say that we are in a particularly fragile moment right now." And then he adds "[This] is why it's really important that while the support we are giving to Ukraine at the moment is to enable them, we have to show a robust a resilient posture across the rest of the contact line with Russia, wherever that is, at sea, in the air, the rest of the NATO landmass, so that Mr Putin understands that this is not something that he can broaden without a huge cost to him and Russia." ... "NATO must ensure Vladimir Putin suffers a 'huge personal cost' if he dares to expand his Ukrainian invasion to other nations", the Royal Navy chief has warned.
Following their meeting in Germany, G7 foreign ministers released on May 14, 2022 a joint statement on Russia's war against Ukraine: "We will expedite our efforts to reduce and end reliance on Russian energy supplies as quickly as possible, building on G7 commitments to phase out or ban imports of Russian coal and oil. We will accelerate the energy transition and enhance energy efficiency in the context of the accelerated phasing out of our dependency on Russian energy, in accordance with our climate objectives and energy security imperatives, thereby steadily reducing foreign currency flows into Russia and restricting the financial means available to fund Russia’s war machinery. We will ensure that we do so in a timely and orderly fashion, and in ways that provide time for the world to secure alternative supplies."
Policy paper from G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Germany, Communiqué Published May 14, 2022 includes following:
Point 36. "International cooperation and clean, secure and just energy transition for sustainable growth
Point 36. "International cooperation and clean, secure and just energy transition for sustainable growth
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has reminded us of the importance of ensuring energy security while accelerating energy transition. In this context, we recognize the importance of accelerating investment in upstream developments, including in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, and promoting usage of clean energy with a view to decreasing our dependency on Russia’s energy.
We are convinced that the 2020s must become a decade of action to speed the decarbonization of global energy systems. To this end, we commit to reduce energy consumption, promote energy efficiency, to fast-track clean, safe and sustainable energy deployment while at the same time accelerating the reduction of our overall reliance on fossil fuels. We will ensure that the transitions are just and inclusive and will strengthen international cooperation to achieve a just and inclusive transition globally. An accelerated clean energy transition that is aligned with the goals of the Agenda 2030 and the Paris Agreement is also one of the most important contributions towards energy security. Avoiding a carbon-lock-and diversifying our energy sources and energy mix supply chains will enhance our energy security and decrease undue dependencies on certain exporters and fossil fuel imports, in accordance with our climate objectives. Such energy transition will also require a greater focus and cooperation on the development of secure and sustainable sources of critical minerals - including rare earth elements – essential for green technologies. Close international cooperation has a central role to play in these efforts. Innovation offers the potential to combine effective climate change mitigation with sustainable growth and secure energy supplies.
Point 37. Sustainable infrastructure and connectivity: .. We stress that the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has a far-reaching impact on global connectivity and has further highlighted the benefits of diversified and resilient supply chains.
ABOUT 3 UK´S IDLING LNG TERMINALS
The UK seemed to be on the mission to cut ALL Russian hydrocarbon exports as seen in this collection of statements: "About Liz Truss and ending the EU´s strategic dependency on Russian hydrocarbon" (107).
It is also interesting that the UK became shortly after the event Net Exporter of Electricity:
This huge shift is confirmed later on January 13, 2023 in an article: "Britain is a net electricity exporter for first time in 44 years". On the same day January 13, 2023 an article is published: "UK energy exports rise to meet European demand". This report provides details. "Increased UK energy exports demonstrate the potential for more renewable energy development. UK turned net power exporter in Q2, 2022. UK LNG import capacity has played a key role in building European gas stocks. Growing electricity interconnector capacity holds promise for increased renewable energy deployment."
One supporting element was the ‘Land bridge’ to continental Europe. However, the UK has more capacity to import gas than it needs. It has three liquified natural gas (LNG) import terminals, Dragon LNG, Grain LNG and South Hook, with combined capacity of 49.2 billion cubic metres a year (Bcm/yr)."
This report describes how the idle capacity of those 3 UK LNG terminals was used by re-exporting LNG to the continental Europe filling demand caused by sanctions and issues around pipelines. (027).
ON THE BACKGROUND OF EU´S ENERGY SECURITY
UK´s House of commons library releases on May 17, 2022 Research briefing: "EU energy security: Implications for the UK". It explains how EU dependency on Russian energy affects the UK. It concludes that: "The UK is far less reliant on Russian gas than the EU, but security of EU gas supply matters to the UK because: it affects the prices of UK gas and electricity; it could affect the UK’s own security of supply if gas imports into the UK were re-directed to the EU; energy exports are economically important to Russia and changes may therefore affect geopolitical relations.
UK´s House of commons library releases on May 17, 2022 Research briefing: "EU energy security: Implications for the UK". It explains how EU dependency on Russian energy affects the UK. It concludes that: "The UK is far less reliant on Russian gas than the EU, but security of EU gas supply matters to the UK because: it affects the prices of UK gas and electricity; it could affect the UK’s own security of supply if gas imports into the UK were re-directed to the EU; energy exports are economically important to Russia and changes may therefore affect geopolitical relations.
The study looks into two sections:
1. UK-EU cooperation "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stimulated UK and EU cooperation on the security of energy supply. At the 30 March 2022 meeting of the UK-EU Specialised Committee on Energy, the UK and EU agreed to facilitate regular exchanges on the security of supply (PDF). They specifically discussed establishing a Working Group on Security of Supply as a matter of priority.
This is because there is insufficient LNG import capacity within the EU, but spare capacity in the UK as well as capacity on the pipelines from the UK to mainland Europe.
The EU’s approach since the Russian invasion of Ukraine has distinguished between short and longer-term measures. To support consumers, companies and sectors severely affected by the high cost of energy, the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, published on 8 March 2022, identified the following possible financing mechanisms:
- price regulation to help protect consumers;
- state aid to provide short-term relief to companies affected by high energy prices;
- temporary tax measures on energy companies’ large profits (a windfall tax);
- receipts from the sale of emission allowances (giving a ‘right to emit’) under the EU Emissions Trading System.
JOHNSON´S POLICY: GLOBAL BRITAIN (044)
19 May 2022 - UK: The incredible shrinking Global Britain
Liz Truss on May 19, 2022 posts on Twitter: "Today we’re making sure Russian airlines can’t cash in their lucrative landing slots at our airports. We will not stop targeting Russia’s economy until Ukraine prevails."
Funding cuts and staffing turmoil at the Foreign Office are scaling back the UK’s international ambition. U.K.’s departments in charge of foreign and development policy. In October, the British Foreign Office sold nearly half the embassy grounds to the Mitsubishi Estate Group, using the profits to pay for solar panels for the rest of the compound plus upgrades to the embassy in New Delhi. The Tokyo sale — which Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has described as part of a “huge mistake” — shows how financial constraints and plummeting morale are forcing Britain’s diplomatic officials to make increasingly difficult decisions as they chart a path for post-Brexit Britain.
The belt-tightening at the Foreign Office started before Johnson’s premiership, but has worsened to the point some in Westminster believe it’s strangling the department just as it’s being called upon to lead the U.K.’s international charge. In addition to taking back control of domestic policy, Johnson saw Brexit as an opportunity to re-engage with the wider world, especially the British Commonwealth.
Liz Truss on May 19, 2022 posts on Twitter: "Today we’re making sure Russian airlines can’t cash in their lucrative landing slots at our airports. We will not stop targeting Russia’s economy until Ukraine prevails."
US-UK Strategic Energy Dialogue 2022
AND BEYOND
Finland's Gasum is refusing to pay Gazprom in rubles, news report in May 17, 2022 . The state-owned firm says it has prepared for the possibility of being cut off from Russian gas supplies.
Finland's Gasum is refusing to pay Gazprom in rubles, news report in May 17, 2022 . The state-owned firm says it has prepared for the possibility of being cut off from Russian gas supplies.
The US-UK Strategic Energy Dialogue 2022 from May 19 2022 states that: "The US and UK are collaborating to accelerate a clean energy transition while maintaining security of energy supplies."
On May 19, 2022 U.S.-UK Strategic Energy Dialogue Joint Statement. "Secretary Granholm and Secretary of State Kwarteng agreed on the need to address the energy needs of today through our shared energy security and system resilience while also reaffirming the need for sustained leadership and coordinated effort to support global energy market stability and reliability." UK Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said: “The UK and US are determined to utilise the strength of our unique relationship through the Energy Dialogue to help European countries end their reliance on Russian oil and gas,..."
Kremlin says on May 19, 2022 that Europe will need Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline one day. "Russia has no hope of starting up its undersea gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 anytime soon, but is confident that Europe will need the pipeline some day regardless of what it says now", the Kremlin said on Thursday.
Liz Truss in an Interview from May 19, 2022 called: «Don't Humiliate Putin? Wrong: For Us He Must Lose» The article explains: " Britain is at the forefront of military support for Ukraine: and leading this effort — alongside Boris Johnson — is you, Liz Truss , the feisty Foreign Secretary . One who, to give you an idea, had her photograph taken in Estonia driving a tank (echoing a famous image of Margaret Thatcher, her idol).
Q: She said that "this is our war" and that the strategic goal is Ukraine's victory: but European countries, including Italy, are aiming for a ceasefire and the relaunch of negotiations.
A: "We are working very closely with Europe - and in particular with Italy - to ensure that Putin loses in Ukraine and to help the Ukrainians prevail."
Q: There are those who believe that the US and Great Britain are aiming for Putin's downfall.
A: "We are not seeking regime change: but we must ensure that Russia is no longer capable of committing these acts of aggression."
Q: Europe is still divided on energy sanctions: what is your view?
A: "I want to praise Draghi's leadership again for moving Italy away from its dependence on Russian oil and gas and for speaking out to change that economic dynamic. We have seen progress, we have seen a ban on oil imports. But I want to be clear: we need to end the dependence on Russian oil and gas, because that is the key that Putin uses to finance his war machine."
Q: Macron has proposed a European architecture in whose outer circle there would also be room for Great Britain. Is it feasible?
A: "In our response to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis we are working very well through the G7 plus the EU to impose sanctions on Russia. We are working very well with European countries in providing defense to Ukraine, in this case triangulating with Poland; we have the Joint Expeditionary Force with the Scandinavians that strengthens protection; and we also work very well with allies like Italy on a bilateral level. We are working with Italy on a trade and investment agreement and a broad bilateral agreement. We think that these flexible agreements that we already have work very well: we are happy with these structures. My preference is to build on the structures that we already have and that work successfully, whether it is the G7 or NATO."
Swedish Officials Ask Pentagon on May 19, 2022 to Increase U.S. Naval Presence in Baltic Sea. "Swedish officials are requesting a larger U.S. naval presence in the Baltic Sea as part of the ongoing diplomatic push for Sweden and Finland to join NATO", two defense officials told USNI News on Thursday. "The Swedish contingent now in Washington is asking to increase bilateral and multilateral exercises with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps and flow more ships into the Baltic"
Liz Truss was at The Council of Europe in Turin on 20 May 2022. where she met many European leaders and discussed issues including energy security and Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
Liz Truss on May 20, 2022 congratulates: "Congratulations Ambassador Colonna on your appointment as French Foreign Minister - look forward to working with you to ensure Putin loses in Ukraine and Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity is restored"
Gazprom announced on May 20, 2022 that it had informed Finland that "The next morning, natural gas deliveries to the country would be halted due to the refusal of the Finnish state-owned gas wholesaler to pay in rubles (That is, to comply with decree 172)". See post
Germany and Qatar signed on May 20, 2022 a declaration to deepen their energy partnership. Qatar plans to start supplying LNG to Germany in 2024.
In September 2022 after problems with turbines (171) flow on Nord Stream is reduced and partial Force Majeure is announced retroactively. (026)
Russia informed it stopped gas flow to Finland over refusal to pay in Rubles on May 21, 2022. Gazprom confirmed it had "completely stopped gas deliveries," as it had not received ruble payments from Finland's Gasum "by the end of the working day on May 20." Gasum added that gas would instead be supplied from other sources through the Baltic Connector pipeline, which connects Finland to Estonia.
New sanctions are announced on May 22, 2022 in which UK targets Russian airlines. Russia’s vital exports of energy are also shrinking – with crude oil exports down 30% in April and expected to fall further as sanctions bite. Through co-ordinated action across the G7 to phase out oil imports, alongside the banning of critical oil refining and catalyst goods, international allies are tightening the vice on Putin’s most trusted revenue stream. (031, 107)
RUSSIA IS OUR NUMBER ONE THREAT
BORIS JOHNSON TOURS ALTERNATIVE EXPORTERS
TO STABILIZE MARKETS IF...
UK def secretary Ben Wallace declares on May 22, 2022 that "Russia is ‘our number one threat’ as its submarines circle Britain"
UK's Special Representative for Climate Change addresses OSCE Economic and Environmental Forum on May 23, 2022. A UK priority is to end our need for Russian oil and gas. The UK has already announced that we will stop Russian oil imports by the end of the year. We will phase out Putin’s gas shortly after. We must all work together to do this in a way that is fair but fast. A great example is the International Energy Agency (IEA) 10-point plan to cut natural gas imports from Russia to the EU by more than half this year.
On May 24, 2022 UK considers action against Russia’s Nord Stream 2 over Belarus landing Ryanair plane. A leading British parliamentarian has called for blocking Nord Stream 2 and the gas pipeline already running through Belarus, in response to the arrest of a Western-backed regime-change advocate on a plane stopped in Minsk. Tom Tugendhat, a Tory MP and chair of the foreign affairs committee in Westminster, said that the “Yamato” (sic) energy pipeline “must be frozen” in response to the arrest of Roman Protasevich in Minsk over the weekend. The most likely autocorrected name was a reference to the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which supplies Germany and Austria with natural gas from Russia, via Belarus and Poland.
So was UK considers new action against Russia’s Nord Stream 2 over Belarus landing Ryanair plane?
UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, Tugendhat’s fellow Tory, responded that "The government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson will “consider and consult” with partners on the question of Nord Stream 2."
PM Boris Johnson meets Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in London on May 24, 2022.
On May 26, 2022 at an event with the Bosnia and Herzegovina Armed Forces, Liz Truss outlined the UK's increased support to counter Russia’s malign influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Foreign Secretary's speech in Sarajevo, Truss said: "Putin is waging the war on the Ukrainian people and the foundations of our societies: Russia’s aggression cannot be appeased. It must be met with strength. I urge Bosnia and Herzegovina to join us in imposing sanctions on Russia - cutting off funding for Putin’s war machine."
EQUINOR
Another important company exits Russian market. Later it will be shown as a key issue in possibility of fixing Nord Stream pipelines. Equinor is the company which is specialized in fixing broken, damaged pipelines. In January 2023 it announces that they are, due to sanctions, unable to help Russian Gazprom to repair pipelines. (015)
Norwegian Equinor exits all Joint Ventures in Russia on May 25, 2022. Equinor has halted all new investments into Russia, stopped trading oil and gas products from Russia and announced an impairment of USD 1.08 billion on the balance sheet as of 31 March 2022. Equinor has now transferred its participating interests in four Russian joint ventures to Rosneft and is released from all future commitments and obligations. An agreement to exit the Kharyaga project has also been signed. The exit from all Joint Ventures has been completed in accordance with Norwegian and EU sanctions legislation related to Russia. (040)
DETAILS OF THE MERKEL´S DEAL
Washington Post published on May 26, 2022 details about: "The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia" In it explanation is given about negotiations between Biden and Scholz over withdrawing security report needed for certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
"Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise."
ATLANTIC FUTURE FORUM (AFF) DAY IS SET
Washington Post published on May 26, 2022 details about: "The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia" In it explanation is given about negotiations between Biden and Scholz over withdrawing security report needed for certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
"Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise."
ATLANTIC FUTURE FORUM (AFF) DAY IS SET
On May 26, 2022 UK´s First Sea Lord announced: "I am delighted that this year’s Atlantic Future Forum will take place from 28-29 September in New York aboard the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales." (100)
The Prince of Wales got broken on the way to Washington but its sister ship Queen Elisabeth replaced it in the diplomatic mission. It arrived first to Norfolk, which also hosts NATO HQs, and then continued to NY to host the AFF. Was this a platform how the Nordstream affair was explained, concealed? (047, 086, 192, 213)
ENERGY DEPENDANCE AND VULNERABILITY IS NOTED
In a keynote speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday May 27, 2022 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and past speaker at AFF commented about the need for the West to prioritise long-term security needs over short-term economic interests. “Freedom is more important than free trade” and that the “protection of our values is more important than profit.”.
In a keynote speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday May 27, 2022 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and past speaker at AFF commented about the need for the West to prioritise long-term security needs over short-term economic interests. “Freedom is more important than free trade” and that the “protection of our values is more important than profit.”.
AFTER NORD STREAM 2, TIME HAS COME FOR NORD STREAM 1 TO GO FOR
UK TO BECOME MAJOR EXPORTER TO EU WITH HUGE WIND AND SOLAR BOOM
On 27 May 2022 Johnson proposes alternative union with Ukraine, may include Baltic states. This alliance could include, in addition to the UK and Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and possibly later Turkey.
Euroactiv report "After Nord Stream 2, time has come for Nord Stream 1 to go" says Ukraine on May 27, 2022 in a statement by Sergiy Makogon, CEO of Gas TSO of Ukraine. "If Nord Stream 1 was shut down tomorrow by Germany, the Kremlin would face a choice, forgo the revenue and accelerate the European transition away from Russian gas; or reroute the flows via Ukraine (our system has plenty of spare capacity to absorb Nord Stream 1 flows). In all likelihood, it will choose the latter and thus strengthen the overall security in Europe. The more dependent Russia is on Ukraine for transit, the less likely it is to bomb our infrastructure and cause disruption in the energy markets."
Were the UK and Ukraine policies aligned? Is the Ukrainian position suggesting to reroute Russian gas exports from Nord Stream AG (NS1) back through Ukrainian pipeline system?
Liz Truss tweeted on 28 May 2022 that "Russia’s aggression cannot be appeased. It must be met with strength."
The Guardian explains on 30 May 2022 the UK exporters have fallen far behind global competitors since Brexit.
Express publishes on 30 May 2022 article with a name "Energy crisis - UK to become MAJOR exporter to EU with huge wind and solar boom" where it explains that Britain could soon find a way out of the energy crisis, as a new report suggests that the UK could receive a massive supply of green electricity.
Liz Truss tweeted on 28 May 2022 that "Russia’s aggression cannot be appeased. It must be met with strength."
The Guardian explains on 30 May 2022 the UK exporters have fallen far behind global competitors since Brexit.
Express publishes on 30 May 2022 article with a name "Energy crisis - UK to become MAJOR exporter to EU with huge wind and solar boom" where it explains that Britain could soon find a way out of the energy crisis, as a new report suggests that the UK could receive a massive supply of green electricity.
This is interesting because there was at this moment not such huge demand to justify the new capacity building, that could happen only if cheaper Russian energy exports would stop.
On May 30, 2022 Russia's Gazprom cut supplies to Netherlands. Russian energy firm Gazprom says it has suspended supplies of gas to the Netherlands after payments were not made in rubles. Gazprom said it had received no payments for Dutch gas supplies in April, despite notifying GasTerra that payments would have to be made in rubles.
On May 30, 2022 Russia's Gazprom cut supplies to Netherlands. Russian energy firm Gazprom says it has suspended supplies of gas to the Netherlands after payments were not made in rubles. Gazprom said it had received no payments for Dutch gas supplies in April, despite notifying GasTerra that payments would have to be made in rubles.
NATO ALLIED MARITIME COMMAND (MARCOM)
The UK rotated its submarine deterrence. News came on May 30, 2022 that Vanguard-class submarines was at sea from 1 January to 6 June 2022, and another from 31 May to 3 November 2022.
Would the prime suspect the UK be confirmed, it is logical to consider that main UK deterrence got detailed instructions how to behave in different scenarios would the mission got green light.
On Tuesday May 31, 2022 Commander MARCOM visits JFC Brunssum, on the Netherlands. Commander Allied Maritime Command (COM MARCOM), Vice Admiral Keith Blount, Royal Navy, visited Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum (JFCBS).
Based in Northwood, United Kingdom, MARCOM is the primary headquarters responsible for maritime forces assigned to NATO. These forces typically come under one of two groups of Frigates and Destroyers known as Standing NATO Maritime Groups (SNMG 1 & 2) – or Mine Countermeasures groups known as Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Groups (SNMCMG 1 & 2).
Based in Northwood, United Kingdom, MARCOM is the primary headquarters responsible for maritime forces assigned to NATO. These forces typically come under one of two groups of Frigates and Destroyers known as Standing NATO Maritime Groups (SNMG 1 & 2) – or Mine Countermeasures groups known as Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Groups (SNMCMG 1 & 2).
Post describing Northwoods naval HWs is here: The role of JEF & NATO MARCOM AND PJHQ in Nordstream Affair (043).
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The UK led NATO sub-group - Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and Nordstream affair - PART 2
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OTHER RELATED POSTS:
(Note: Bellow appropriate and only related list of links still not fixed, sorry, working on it )
002 - UK government does not like Nordstream
003 - Historical ROOTS of Nordstream affair
010 - Mackinder Roadblocks against Euro-Asian development & integration
012 - Whose submarine visited Bornholm Deep before the Nordstream was blown up?
027 - Mission accomplished - UK - from Energy Importer to Energy Exporter
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NEXT
(Part 7 - June - Draft for now)
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