CRIME SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION
(MARCH 2022)
PART 4/16
(BASED ON NORDSTREAM FILES MASTER DATA-FILE)
...previously: PART 3 (FEBRUARY 2022)
SUMMARY
Events explained in chronological order as they unfolded in March 2022,
Exploring the political and economical motivations for Nordstream Affair,
Analysing the UK's strategic interests in diminishing Russian influence in Europe.
Stopping Nord Stream 2 had impact on European energy security
The bombing happened on both Nord Stream 1 and 2,
it caused re-polarization of European security order.
What was the UK's role in intensifying economic warfare against Russia through sanctions, energy diversification efforts, and the restructuring of its Special Boat Services?
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Sanctions Trajectory: The UK initiated extensive sanctions against Russia in 2014, which escalated sharply following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These measures aimed to destabilize the Russian economy and undermine the Putin regime.
Energy Sector Targeting: Significant actions focused on the energy sector, particularly Nord Stream 2, alongside efforts to promote energy diversification and encourage companies to exit the Russian market.
Effectiveness of Decoupling: Despite the UK's initiatives, a study indicated that many G7 companies fell short of fully divesting from Russia, raising questions about the overall effectiveness of the decoupling strategy.
Policy of Non-Normalization: The UK actively pursued a policy of "no normalization" with Russia, advocating for ongoing pressure and sanctions, even during peace negotiations.
SBS Restructuring: In March 2022, the UK undertook a major restructuring of its Special Boat Services (SBS), establishing elite mission teams with enhanced capabilities. Russia later accused these teams of involvement in the Nord Stream attacks.
Nord Stream 2 Challenges: The Gazprom subsidiary Nord Stream 2 AG despite facing insolvency and sanctions shown in September signs of revival, potentially prompting the decision to destroy the pipeline.
G7 Coordination: UK actions were not isolated; they were part of a coordinated effort with other G7 nations, particularly the US, aiming for a unified strategy to weaken Russia's economic standing and geopolitical influence.
MARCH 2022
THE AFTERSHOCK AND NORD STREAM 2 AG HYBERNATION
Nord Stream 2 AG is wholly owned by the Russian state-controlled energy company, Gazprom. The company's primary purpose was to manage the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was intended to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, parallel to the already existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Nord Stream 2 AG was registered in Zug, Switzerland, which is a common location for international companies due to its business-friendly regulatory environment. The pipeline was designed to have a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, matching the capacity of Nord Stream 1.
The project aimed to increase the direct supply of Russian gas to Europe, bypassing transit countries like Ukraine. The pipeline was completed in September 2021, but it never went into operation due to geopolitical tensions, especially following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The project faced significant opposition from the United States, United Kingdom and several European countries, leading to postponement of certification due to changing security implications. As a result, in early 2022, Nord Stream 2 AG filed for insolvency and laid off its employees due to these sanctions and the geopolitical situation. (132, 155, 160, 161, 162)
In May 2022, the court granted Nord Stream 2 AG a provisional moratorium against bankruptcy proceedings.
On September 6, 2022, the Cantonal Court of Zug, Switzerland, decided to extend the suspension of bankruptcy proceedings against Nord Stream 2 AG for another six months until January 2023.
This could have been one of possible triggers for the perpetrator to go forward with the physical destruction of the pipeline, the evaluation was that sooner or later the pipeline will get all necessary permits. The life expectancy of pipelines at the bottom of the sea is minimally 50 years. The company could just wait out the negative political environment. Winter is not good for sabotage operations so it is possible that the Zug court decision has been followed with highlighted attention and it could have been the very moment when the mission against pipelines was decided. (054)
In early March, the UK adopted a diplomatic stance of economic warfare to diminish Russia's financial ability to continue its military operations in Ukraine. Recognizing Russian hydrocarbon exports as a key vulnerability, the UK implemented strict sanctions, promoted energy diversification, and encouraged other nations to adopt similar measures in a coordinated effort. The UK´s sanctions have been in place against Russia since 2014, in response to the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing destabilisation of eastern Ukraine as the overview published on May 15, 2023 explains.
Nord Stream 2 Terminated on March 1, 2022 worker contracts amid sanctions. The launching of gas transmission has been postponed into undefined future due to missing certification. German government did not grant security clearance despite knowledge that it might be liable for compensation claims, given the legal expectations set by the issuance of construction permits.. (155)
Euroactive wrote on March 2, 2022 that Nord Stream 2 filed for bankruptcy, and fired employees. The description was factually wrong. Insolvency is not same as bankruptcy. Nord Stream 2 AG declared insolvency, a condition of being unable to pay debts. Bankruptcy is the legal mechanism to address that condition, often leading to the cessation of business operations or a structured repayment plan. This has been postponed several times.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs highlighted on March 02, 2022 that Germany’s decision on Nord Stream 2 will irrevocably affect relations with Russia. The message was as follows:
"On February 22, the German chancellor announced that the German government was suspending the certification of the Nord Stream 2 project after Russia recognized the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.
Berlin's decision to stop certification of the Nord Stream 2 project will cause irreversible damage to Russian-German relations, Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a comment.
"We would like to declare that Berlin’s decision to stop the project will result in irreversible damage to Russian-German relations, which have been far from cloudless in recent years through no fault of ours. Responsibility for the consequences of these illegitimate actions, which call into question the reputation of Germany as a reliable foreign economic partner, rests entirely on the German side," the document says.
"We believe the decision of German authorities to terminate the process of Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline certification is unacceptable and mischievous from the standpoint of norms of international commercial law," Zakharova said.
"We believe this is a classic precedent of using the commercial project as the political weapon against us, which the collective West at large and official Berlin, in particular, are so fond of blaming Moscow for," she added.
"The abovementioned instruction to the German regulator was given by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, in which they just recently spoke about the project as about a purely commercial initiative of private investors. Also, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself, who directly initiated the abovementioned actions, had assured earlier that the certification process for Nord Stream 2 has exclusively regulatory nature and cannot in any way be connected with the political situation," Zakharova noted.
"Now it is obvious that the German authorities were inconsistent and "succumbed to the temptation to use the project as a leverage of pressure on Russia, thereby showing their inability to separate politics and economics," the diplomat stresses in her comment.
"The direct political ban on the certification of Nord Stream 2, introduced on February 22, is the logical high point of the aforementioned doctrine of the priority of politics over the economy in the context of its implementation," Zakharova said.
"On February 22, the German chancellor announced that the German government was suspending the certification of the Nord Stream 2 project after Russia recognized the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.
Berlin's decision to stop certification of the Nord Stream 2 project will cause irreversible damage to Russian-German relations, Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a comment.
"We would like to declare that Berlin’s decision to stop the project will result in irreversible damage to Russian-German relations, which have been far from cloudless in recent years through no fault of ours. Responsibility for the consequences of these illegitimate actions, which call into question the reputation of Germany as a reliable foreign economic partner, rests entirely on the German side," the document says.
"We believe the decision of German authorities to terminate the process of Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline certification is unacceptable and mischievous from the standpoint of norms of international commercial law," Zakharova said.
"We believe this is a classic precedent of using the commercial project as the political weapon against us, which the collective West at large and official Berlin, in particular, are so fond of blaming Moscow for," she added.
"The abovementioned instruction to the German regulator was given by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, in which they just recently spoke about the project as about a purely commercial initiative of private investors. Also, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself, who directly initiated the abovementioned actions, had assured earlier that the certification process for Nord Stream 2 has exclusively regulatory nature and cannot in any way be connected with the political situation," Zakharova noted.
"Now it is obvious that the German authorities were inconsistent and "succumbed to the temptation to use the project as a leverage of pressure on Russia, thereby showing their inability to separate politics and economics," the diplomat stresses in her comment.
"The direct political ban on the certification of Nord Stream 2, introduced on February 22, is the logical high point of the aforementioned doctrine of the priority of politics over the economy in the context of its implementation," Zakharova said.
In May 2022, the court granted Nord Stream 2 AG a provisional moratorium against bankruptcy proceedings.
On September 6, 2022, the Cantonal Court of Zug, Switzerland, decided to extend the suspension of bankruptcy proceedings against Nord Stream 2 AG for another six months until January 2023.
This could have been one of possible triggers for the perpetrator to go forward with the physical destruction of the pipeline, the evaluation was that sooner or later the pipeline will get all necessary permits. The life expectancy of pipelines at the bottom of the sea is minimally 50 years. The company could just wait out the negative political environment. Winter is not good for sabotage operations so it is possible that the Zug court decision has been followed with highlighted attention and it could have been the very moment when the mission against pipelines was decided. (054)
PUSHING THE LIMITS ON THE WEAK SPOTS
In the build-up to the current crisis in Ukraine, Western allies warned Russia that any breach of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty would be met with unprecedented economic measures. On 24 February 2022, Russian military forces crossed the border into Ukraine and continue to conduct a full-scale assault on the country. The EU, UK, US, and other allies, have responded with significant coordinated sanctions, targeting Russia’s financial sector, aviation and shipping, strategic sectors of the economy such as defence, aerospace and energy, individuals close to the Putin regime and those facilitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including actors in third countries. Sanctions are being introduced on a rolling basis and the UK has said “nothing is off the table”. Sanctions continue to target key sources of Russian revenue, while efforts have also become increasingly focused on the prevention of sanctions evasion and the role of third-party enablers internationally.
Calls for a no-fly zone to be imposed by Nato forces over Ukraine were rejected by the UK's defence secretary on March 2, 2022. Ben Wallace reiterated warnings that this would likely trigger a Europe-wide conflict with a nuclear-armed power.
On March 2, 2022, Truss stated on twitter: "Our Baltic friends live in the shadow of Russian aggression. I am in Vilnius meeting @eliimets, @edgarsrinkevics and @GLandsbergis to discuss how we work together to support Ukraine, isolate Putin and oppose his illegal invasion. Putin must fail."
Nadine Dorries' statement to the House of Commons on Ukraine on March 3, 2022 included, "We have to keep ratcheting up the pressure. Putin must fail. Mr Speaker, we will keep ratcheting up the pressure on Putin. I will use all the levers in my department to ensure he is fully ostracised from the international community."
Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said on March 1, 2022, regarding the UK sanctions on Russia, “we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime.”
On March 2, 2022, Truss stated on twitter: "Our Baltic friends live in the shadow of Russian aggression. I am in Vilnius meeting @eliimets, @edgarsrinkevics and @GLandsbergis to discuss how we work together to support Ukraine, isolate Putin and oppose his illegal invasion. Putin must fail."
The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict were discussed by the UK on 2 March 2022. 2 March 2022
She stated, "First, Putin must lose in Ukraine. We are helping Ukraine to defend itself. Our defensive weapons from the United Kingdom are now being used to stop Russian tanks. But we need to do more. Secondly, we must contain this aggression. We are reinforcing NATO’s Eastern flank and supporting European security through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)... We have also been on the forefront in tightening the vice on the Kremlin through sanctions, and it is vital at this juncture that we keep the foot on gas."
"We have worked with the EU, the US and the G7 to cut off funding for Putin’s war machine, kicking Russian banks out of the financial system. We have also shut our airspace to Russian planes, and we are fast-forwarding sanctions against Russian oligarchs, but we need to go further. We need to make sure no Russian bank has access to SWIFT, and we need to go further on reducing dependency on hydrocarbons from Russia, including oil, gas and coal. We have also launched sanctions against Belarus for aiding and abetting aggression. I will be raising these issues at the G7 tomorrow and also at the European Union Foreign Affairs Council, alongside the US, Canada and Ukraine, who have also been invited in these extraordinary circumstances."
Another source comments the statement highlighting: "The West needs to ensure the Russian economy is crippled so that President Vladimir Putin is unable to continue his invasion of Ukraine" British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on 3 March 2022 during a news conference in Lithuania. "We need to ... degrade the Russian economy," Truss said. "We need to make sure ... that the Russian economy is crippled so it is unable to continue to fund Putin and the war machine."
On 1st March 2022, the Royal Navy revealed a significant restructuring of its diving teams, marking the biggest overhaul in over 25 years. This transformation involves replacing the Fleet Diving Squadron with the newly formed Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG), an elite cadre of frogmen specializing in Explosive Ordnance Disposal (old EOD) support for Special Forces and the Royal Marines.
"Diving & Threat Exploitation Group commanding officer Commander Sean Heaton said: “This once-in-a-generation transformation has enabled the Royal Navy’s Clearance Divers to be the most agile, lethal and technically advanced they have ever been."
“Capable of locating, exploiting, and disposing of threats to the Royal Navy and the UK’s interests, all while remaining ready to conduct emergency underwater maintenance to our ships and submarines.”
Echo Squadron (DTXG’s explosive exploitation experts) Lieutenant Commander Tom Forbes said: “For my unit this transformation means we can focus our attention on becoming experts in the field of maritime exploitation of conventional and improvised explosive devises and munitions, a capability that doesn’t exist anywhere else across UK defence.
Last month, Royal Navy’s fifth Astute-class nuclear submarine, Anson, conducted its initial trim dive.
10 March 2022 - UK: Royal Navy’s DTXG: Revolutionizing Clearance Divers’ Capabilities
In what Royal Navy clearance divers describe as their biggest shake-up since 1996, the long-standing Fleet Diving Squadron has been reshaped into small, elite mission teams said to be better equipped to deal with the latest threats. They are now called the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG).Based in Portsmouth, Plymouth and Faslane, RN divers’ tasks include explosive disposal of historic ordnance and rendering improvised explosive devices safe in the UK, as well as clearing sea mines and deterring terrorists overseas.
The DTXG’s explosives exploitation experts are Echo Squadron. Lt-Commander Tom Forbes said of his unit: “This transformation means we can focus our attention on becoming experts in the field of maritime exploitation of conventional and improvised explosive devises and munitions – a capability that doesn’t exist anywhere else across UK defence..
The US and UK advocated and recommended companies to leave Russian market. (040)
The Prime Minister Boris Johnson met Czech PM Petr Fiala at Visegrad 4 summit on 8 March 2022 and stated: "The leaders condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and agreed on the need to work with allies to wean the West off Russian oil and gas."
In the update on Uniper's Russia activities and further steps from March 7, 2022 the company announces it has decided to make a full impairment on the loan to Nord Stream 2. Divestiture process for Russian subsidiary Unipro will resume as soon as possible. Existing long-term gas import contracts with Russia remain part of the secure European gas supply – Uniper will not conclude any new long-term supply contracts for natural gas with Russia. Alternative gas supply: restart of the LNG terminal project in Wilhelmshaven and increased diversification of supply sources
“Confirmed exits by EU and G7 firms that had equity stakes in Russia account for 6.5% of total profit before tax of all the EU and G7 firms with active commercial operations in Russia, 8.6% of tangible fixed assets, 8.6% of total assets, 10.4% of operating revenue, and 15.3% of total employees,”
“These findings mean that, on average, exiting firms tended to have lower profitability and larger workforces than the firms that remain in Russia.”
“These findings call into question the willingness of Western firms to decouple from economies their governments now deem to be geopolitical rivals,” Evenett and Pisani wrote.
“The study’s findings are a reality check on the narrative that national security concerns and geopolitics is leading to a fundamental unwinding of globalisation.” (027)
"As Nord Stream 2 is not a UK project, Russian sanctions legislation introduced by the Government on 10 February 2022 does not specifically mention the pipeline. However, the legislation will allow the UK to target the strategic interests of the Russian state more broadly, including the energy sector and specific companies such as Gazprom who owns Nord Stream 2."
The study also looks into implications of its suggested steps for Ukraine: "Nord Stream 2 has implications for Ukraine. Although not a huge importer of Russian gas, Ukraine is a major transit country of current Russian gas pipelines into Europe. Transit fees are thought to account for almost 3% of Ukraine’s GDP, which will bring an expected revenue of $2-3 billion annually over the next five years."
Gazprom transportation projects to Europe
Two main critics objections
The issue here is that Angela Merkel confessed later that the calculation was wrong. (103)
Merkel gave interview to the Germany editorial network on June 18, 2022. She commented on the withdrawal of the Nord Stream 2 certification that it wasn't an easy decision. "The theory at the time was: If Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will no longer supply gas through Ukraine or even attack it." The West ensured that gas was still routed through Ukraine and that it continued to receive transit fees. Merkel pointed out that Russia then attacked Ukraine on February 24, when gas was not yet being piped through Nord Stream 2. “In this sense, gas was not a weapon,” said Merkel.
It states that "As long as Europe remains heavily reliant on Russian energy, we have an Achilles heel. With 40 per cent of the continent’s gas imports and 25 per cent of its oil imports coming from Russia, European countries urgently need a long-term plan to curb this dependency – especially if Putin remains on his current trajectory. Such a plan requires urgent coordination between the EU and its partners to lay out both short-term measures and a longer strategic vision for greater energy security. Our paper shows how this can be accomplished."
Center for Strategic and International Studies, (CSIC) has likened the current situation to a “divorce” between two parties that “still live in the same house – and depend on each other”. This is particularly true in the case of natural gas, with the EU continuing to import 40 per cent of its total supply from Russia.
The TBI advises: "Urgent action is needed. It is unlikely Putin would turn off the taps to Europe but if the past few weeks have taught us anything, it is that we should prepare ourselves for all eventualities. More important, however, is recognising that – with the right political will across Europe – we could have another powerful bargaining chip at the West’s disposal: a more diverse and secure energy supply. European countries should be proactively preparing to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, not only to send a powerful signal to Putin in the here and now, but also to fortify our energy security for years to come."
In an article on Ukraine dated March 6, 2022, the UK Prime Minister outlined that We must do more for Ukraine. A few quotes:
"We are pleased to see more nations now beginning to grasp this hard reality. In January, the UK was among a handful of European countries sending defensive aid to Ukraine. Now, more than 25 countries are part of that effort. Defence spending is going up, though it will take time for that to translate into capability."
"The fact is that the UK, the US, EU, Japan, and Canada moved in unison [and] gave this action incredible scale. It has been, truly, global. Even Switzerland has put aside its historic neutrality. Singapore has imposed bilateral sanctions for the first time since the 1970s, and in the United Kingdom, we put in place the toughest package of sanctions in our history, hitting over two hundred individuals, entities, and subsidiaries, including Putin himself.
We’ve hit £300 billion worth of Russian bank assets, more than any other nation, and this week, we changed the law in the United Kingdom to allow us to take even tougher action against oligarchs and others around Putin. Today, we have sanctioned Roman Abramovich and other major oligarchs, showing that we will act without fear and without favor."
"First of all, we must end the strategic dependence which puts our economies and security at the risk and mercy of malign actors. Europe remains deeply reliant on Russian energy. This provides a vital source of revenue for Putin, and it must end. Together with the United States, we announced that we will phase out Russian oil imports and I welcome the EU’s plan to cut its imports of Russian gas by two-thirds this year. We’re working with our G7 partners to cut this dependence once and for all, to put a ceiling on the percentage of Russian energy imports, and [to commit] to bring it down over time. And we need to look at how we can help those countries that are especially dependent on Russian energy and how we can increase supplies elsewhere...
...The fundamental driver of the Russian economy is oil and gas, and the absolute key has to be reducing dependency on oil and gas. And I recognize many European countries are very dependent. Some have as much as 80, 90, 100 percent dependence on Russia. We have to help them get off that dependence. We have to find alternatives. In the longer term, that’s about nuclear and renewables. In the short term, it’s about finding alternative sources."
“We must double down on our sanctions. That includes… the G7 ending its use of Russian oil and gas and implementing a full ban on Russian banks using the SWIFT bank messaging system", Truss said in a joint press conference with Blinken at the State Department in Washington.
“Now is not the time to let up. Putin must fail,” she added.
In a tweet, Boris Johnson said he had spoken to Ukraine's President Zelensky, and that the UK would tighten sanctions to "impose the maximum economic cost on Russia" and increase military support to Ukraine. "We want a situation where they can't access their funds, they can't clear their payments, their trade can't flow, their ships can't dock and their planes can't land," Liz Truss added.
The UK, on March 11, 2022, imposed sanctions on 386 Russian parliament members who backed Putin.
On March 11, 2022, Truss slapped Russia with brutal £30bn sanctions as the UK vowed to topple 'Putin's war machine'.
Truss on 11 March 2022 met US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss our defensive and humanitarian support for Ukraine, and stepping up economic sanctions against Putin’s regime. "Our two countries are working in lockstep to ensure Putin fails in Ukraine."
Another source comments the statement highlighting: "The West needs to ensure the Russian economy is crippled so that President Vladimir Putin is unable to continue his invasion of Ukraine" British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on 3 March 2022 during a news conference in Lithuania. "We need to ... degrade the Russian economy," Truss said. "We need to make sure ... that the Russian economy is crippled so it is unable to continue to fund Putin and the war machine."
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN UK´S TOP ELITE TEAM
SPECIAL BOAT SERVICES GETS A FULL CHANGEOVER
Royal Navy announces on March 1, 2022 it transforms divers teams to create new, elite mission teams Operating under the new banner of the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) – which replaces the long-standing Fleet Diving Squadron – the expert frogmen/bomb disposal experts aim to do more and be more agile, while using the latest tech, in order to keep the Navy’s fleet and the public safe, globally.
"For my unit this transformation means we can focus our attention on becoming experts in the field of maritime exploitation of conventional and improvised explosive devises and munitions – a capability that doesn’t exist anywhere else across UK defence."
The Diving & Threat Exploitation Group continues to evolve and move with the times.
"We recognise and embrace modern, innovative technology such as autonomous underwater vehicles and remotely operated vehicles (known as AUVs and ROVs) to deliver operations and enhance training."
Delta & Echo Squadron - globally deploys dedicated and motivated Clearance Divers armed with world class expeditionary diving and explosive ordnance capabilities to defeat and exploit complex conventional and improvised threats.
The Diving & Threat Exploitation Group continues to evolve and move with the times.
"We recognise and embrace modern, innovative technology such as autonomous underwater vehicles and remotely operated vehicles (known as AUVs and ROVs) to deliver operations and enhance training."
Delta & Echo Squadron - globally deploys dedicated and motivated Clearance Divers armed with world class expeditionary diving and explosive ordnance capabilities to defeat and exploit complex conventional and improvised threats.
Royal Navy divers created elite mission teams to meet evolving needs on March 2, 2022 in the UK. According to a Royal Navy statement, the restructuring represents the biggest shake-up since 1996. The divers, who were a part of the Fleet Diving Squadron, will now operate under the name of Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG). The Royal Navy Divers are based in Portsmouth, Plymouth and Faslane. The latest changes will enable the personnel to carry out additional missions as well as continue training activities with Nato and other allies.
"Diving & Threat Exploitation Group commanding officer Commander Sean Heaton said: “This once-in-a-generation transformation has enabled the Royal Navy’s Clearance Divers to be the most agile, lethal and technically advanced they have ever been."
“Capable of locating, exploiting, and disposing of threats to the Royal Navy and the UK’s interests, all while remaining ready to conduct emergency underwater maintenance to our ships and submarines.”
Echo Squadron (DTXG’s explosive exploitation experts) Lieutenant Commander Tom Forbes said: “For my unit this transformation means we can focus our attention on becoming experts in the field of maritime exploitation of conventional and improvised explosive devises and munitions, a capability that doesn’t exist anywhere else across UK defence.
Last month, Royal Navy’s fifth Astute-class nuclear submarine, Anson, conducted its initial trim dive.
10 March 2022 - UK: Royal Navy’s DTXG: Revolutionizing Clearance Divers’ Capabilities
In what Royal Navy clearance divers describe as their biggest shake-up since 1996, the long-standing Fleet Diving Squadron has been reshaped into small, elite mission teams said to be better equipped to deal with the latest threats. They are now called the Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG).Based in Portsmouth, Plymouth and Faslane, RN divers’ tasks include explosive disposal of historic ordnance and rendering improvised explosive devices safe in the UK, as well as clearing sea mines and deterring terrorists overseas.
The DTXG’s explosives exploitation experts are Echo Squadron. Lt-Commander Tom Forbes said of his unit: “This transformation means we can focus our attention on becoming experts in the field of maritime exploitation of conventional and improvised explosive devises and munitions – a capability that doesn’t exist anywhere else across UK defence..
17 March 2022 - UK: Major Overhaul, British Royal Navy Creates New Navy Elite Diving Team
The Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) is based in Portsmouth and Faslane, the UK's Royal Navy Divers
29 March 2022 - UK: Royal Marines launch commando raid from Astute class submarine during Arctic exercise
Commodore Jim Perks, the head of the RN Submarine Service, said: “The ability to operate undetected for significant periods of time with top quality kit ensures that a submarine remains a formidable delivery mechanism, in this case enabling the covert deployment of the Surveillance and Reconnaissance team as showcased in the exercises off Norway. Our ability to work together highlights the remarkable attributes of the team and the platforms in which we operate.”
The training is a small but important phase of the Cold Response 2022 exercise – proved the usefulness of using submarines to access strategically important areas with small teams of highly-trained specialists without being detected.
The Diving & Threat Exploitation Group (DTXG) is based in Portsmouth and Faslane, the UK's Royal Navy Divers
29 March 2022 - UK: Royal Marines launch commando raid from Astute class submarine during Arctic exercise
Commodore Jim Perks, the head of the RN Submarine Service, said: “The ability to operate undetected for significant periods of time with top quality kit ensures that a submarine remains a formidable delivery mechanism, in this case enabling the covert deployment of the Surveillance and Reconnaissance team as showcased in the exercises off Norway. Our ability to work together highlights the remarkable attributes of the team and the platforms in which we operate.”
The training is a small but important phase of the Cold Response 2022 exercise – proved the usefulness of using submarines to access strategically important areas with small teams of highly-trained specialists without being detected.
Four days after blasts which destroyed Nordstream pipelines on September 30, 2022 Putin said the "Anglo-Saxons" have turned from sanctions to "terror attacks," sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in what he described as an attempt to "destroy the European energy infrastructure."
On 1st October, 2022 Russian diplomat slammed UK´s effort offering their help with investigation: "The UK offered Denmark its help in investigating sabotage at Nord Streams, the office of [UK] Prime Minister [Liz Truss] reported. Foxes are fighting for chickens’ rights".
Then on October 5, 2022 Russia encouraged European countries to admit what happened: "The EU countries will have to face the truth and admit that they were betrayed by their allies in the situation involving the Nord Stream incidents", Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on her Telegram channel.
Discussions about establishing international investigation did not move forward. Russian Ministry of Defence has made it´s own assessment and accused UK´s Special Boat Services on October 29, 2022 stating that "UK’s naval service is behind Sevastopol drone attacks and Nord Stream explosion. The statement was as follows: "Russia’s Defence Ministry claims that His Majesty’s Naval Service took part in today’s drone attack against Russia’s warships in Crimea’s Sevastopol, as well as the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines" (191)
Surprisingly three days after this statement UK Parliament was not allowed to question Special Boat Services. An internal investigation into the UK Special Forces was denied when, on November 2, 2022, the UK's Defence Committee clashed with the Defence Minister during a heated debate. The British Parliamentary Defence Select Committee, challenged UK Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace, for not allowing access to UK Special Forces. (098)
THE COLLECTIVE EFFORT
SANCTIONS AND PRESSURE ON PRIVATE COMPANIES
The US urged companies to comply with Russia-related sanctions on March 2, 2022.
Italy's Eni announced on March 2, 2022, that it would pull out of the Russia-Turkey natural gas pipeline. Italian oil giant Eni said Tuesday it would withdraw from the Blue Stream gas pipeline linking Russia to Turkey, in which it has a 50%.
On March 3, 2022, France's Engie declared it would continue Russian gas purchases due to energy market 'tensions'. Engie said it did not engage in any industrial activity in Russia and no investment projects were underway on Russian territory. However, Engie was one of five European energy companies that helped finance the construction of the suspended Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. "Engie, as a lender, is exposed to Eur987million of credit risk which could impact its accounts in the event of Nord Stream 2 filing for insolvency," it said.
The Switzerland-based operator of Nord Stream 2 on March 2 denied reports it had filed for bankruptcy, saying it had only informed local authorities that it had terminated employee contracts. Numerous media reports, citing sources and Swiss officials, on March 1 said Nord Stream 2 AG had filed for insolvency or was planning to after US sanctions were imposed against the company on Feb. 23. Engie, along with Shell, Austria's OMV, and Germany's Wintershall Dea and Uniper, each pledged to loan Eur950 million to help build Nord Stream 2.
The following table "Asset Freeze and Other Targeted Restrictions on Russia’s Largest Banks as of March 4, 2022" published on March 4, 2022 by ACAMS includes the key sanctions provisions against Russian banks introduced by the EU and the non-European members of the G7, namely the US, the UK, Canada, and Japan. The table also includes the date when the relevant legislation was passed.
Joint Statement on Russian invasion of Ukraine: UK – Canada – Netherlands from March 7, 2022: "We have also worked with partners to bring in an unprecedented package of purposeful and punitive sanctions to isolate Russia’s economy and will continue to impose severe costs on Russia given this unconscionable attack."
Visegrád Group (V4) Joint leaders’ statement from 8 March 2022: "We also discussed the subject of reducing our dependence on fossil fuels from Russia, as part of improving our collective energy security."
The following table "Asset Freeze and Other Targeted Restrictions on Russia’s Largest Banks as of March 4, 2022" published on March 4, 2022 by ACAMS includes the key sanctions provisions against Russian banks introduced by the EU and the non-European members of the G7, namely the US, the UK, Canada, and Japan. The table also includes the date when the relevant legislation was passed.
Putin wants ‘normalization’ of global relations, saying there is ‘no need’ for sanctions on Russia, he stated on March, 2022 that “There is no need to escalate the situation, impose restrictions. We fulfil all obligations,” he said. “If someone does not want to cooperate with us within the framework of single cooperation, and by doing so harms themselves, they will, of course, harm us, too.”
Visegrád Group (V4) Joint leaders’ statement from 8 March 2022: "We also discussed the subject of reducing our dependence on fossil fuels from Russia, as part of improving our collective energy security."
UK Foreign Minister Liz Truss met on March 8, 2022 with Vadym Volodymyrovych Prystaiko, a Ukrainian diplomat who was Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom tonight announcing: "We stand with Ukraine. The UK is providing military, economic and humanitarian support to Ukraine, crippling Putin's war machine and rallying the international community. The UK will do all we can to support the Ukrainian people. Putin must fail."
The Prime Minister Boris Johnson met Czech PM Petr Fiala at Visegrad 4 summit on 8 March 2022 and stated: "The leaders condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and agreed on the need to work with allies to wean the West off Russian oil and gas."
Shell announced on March 8, 2022 intent to withdraw from Russian oil and gas. "Today’s announcement follow’s Shell’s decision last week that it intends to end its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project and exit its equity partnerships with Gazprom and related entities, including its 27.5 percent stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50 percent stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and the Gydan energy venture."
Nearly a year on from the supposed Russian exodus, a study published on January 31, 2023 found out that most major companies have actually yet to withdraw. After Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, companies across the G-7 major economies and the European Union announced plans to cease business operations in Russia. Yet by the end of the year, very few had fully delivered on that promise, according to new research from Switzerland’s University of St. Gallen The report published earlier this month documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine. By November 2022, fewer than 9% of that pool of companies had divested at least one subsidiary in Russia
“Confirmed exits by EU and G7 firms that had equity stakes in Russia account for 6.5% of total profit before tax of all the EU and G7 firms with active commercial operations in Russia, 8.6% of tangible fixed assets, 8.6% of total assets, 10.4% of operating revenue, and 15.3% of total employees,”
“These findings mean that, on average, exiting firms tended to have lower profitability and larger workforces than the firms that remain in Russia.”
“These findings call into question the willingness of Western firms to decouple from economies their governments now deem to be geopolitical rivals,” Evenett and Pisani wrote.
“The study’s findings are a reality check on the narrative that national security concerns and geopolitics is leading to a fundamental unwinding of globalisation.” (027)
THE UK IS PUSHING FOR "CUTTING THE CORD"
Opposition to the pipeline has been fierce. Russia and Germany’s longstanding view has been that the pipeline is a purely economic project. However, the US, UK and the EU have all expressed concerns over its geopolitical implications. The worry was that direct supply of gas to Europe via Nord Stream 2 would allow Russia to largely bypass Ukraine. This was the rationale why Germany gave in under pressure from its allies and paused Nord Stream 2 certification. (104)
The UK was studying the case in depth. On March 2. 2022 a research briefing "Geopolitical implications of Nord Stream 2" was uploaded to government portal. In part 4 the official position of UK government is explained.
The UK was studying the case in depth. On March 2. 2022 a research briefing "Geopolitical implications of Nord Stream 2" was uploaded to government portal. In part 4 the official position of UK government is explained.
"As Nord Stream 2 is not a UK project, Russian sanctions legislation introduced by the Government on 10 February 2022 does not specifically mention the pipeline. However, the legislation will allow the UK to target the strategic interests of the Russian state more broadly, including the energy sector and specific companies such as Gazprom who owns Nord Stream 2."
The study also looks into implications of its suggested steps for Ukraine: "Nord Stream 2 has implications for Ukraine. Although not a huge importer of Russian gas, Ukraine is a major transit country of current Russian gas pipelines into Europe. Transit fees are thought to account for almost 3% of Ukraine’s GDP, which will bring an expected revenue of $2-3 billion annually over the next five years."
Gazprom transportation projects to Europe
The issue here is that Angela Merkel confessed later that the calculation was wrong. (103)
Merkel gave interview to the Germany editorial network on June 18, 2022. She commented on the withdrawal of the Nord Stream 2 certification that it wasn't an easy decision. "The theory at the time was: If Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will no longer supply gas through Ukraine or even attack it." The West ensured that gas was still routed through Ukraine and that it continued to receive transit fees. Merkel pointed out that Russia then attacked Ukraine on February 24, when gas was not yet being piped through Nord Stream 2. “In this sense, gas was not a weapon,” said Merkel.
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) has become notably influential in the global political landscape, particularly in advising governments and political leaders on policy, strategy, and implementation. On March 4, 2022 research has been published: "Cutting the Cord: Ending Europe’s Energy Dependency on Russia"
It states that "As long as Europe remains heavily reliant on Russian energy, we have an Achilles heel. With 40 per cent of the continent’s gas imports and 25 per cent of its oil imports coming from Russia, European countries urgently need a long-term plan to curb this dependency – especially if Putin remains on his current trajectory. Such a plan requires urgent coordination between the EU and its partners to lay out both short-term measures and a longer strategic vision for greater energy security. Our paper shows how this can be accomplished."
Center for Strategic and International Studies, (CSIC) has likened the current situation to a “divorce” between two parties that “still live in the same house – and depend on each other”. This is particularly true in the case of natural gas, with the EU continuing to import 40 per cent of its total supply from Russia.
The TBI advises: "Urgent action is needed. It is unlikely Putin would turn off the taps to Europe but if the past few weeks have taught us anything, it is that we should prepare ourselves for all eventualities. More important, however, is recognising that – with the right political will across Europe – we could have another powerful bargaining chip at the West’s disposal: a more diverse and secure energy supply. European countries should be proactively preparing to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, not only to send a powerful signal to Putin in the here and now, but also to fortify our energy security for years to come."
In an article on Ukraine dated March 6, 2022, the UK Prime Minister outlined that We must do more for Ukraine. A few quotes:
In the six-point plan for Ukraine Truss mentions again economic sanctions and aimed again at Russian energy exports:
The UK government summary March 6, 2022, emphasized that Liz Truss said: "The West must show Putin its collective strength. Now is the time to be strong to ensure we see off Putin’s aggression for good. We need to double down in supporting Ukraine so that it prevails over Putin and restores its sovereignty. When a European democracy is standing up to tyranny, we will not hesitate to help it defend itself.
Boris Johnson says we can't close down the use of Russian oil and gas overnight, as stated on March 7, 2022. He told reporters that he would set out an energy supply strategy in the coming days.
‘There are going to be impacts but I think it is the right thing to do. It is completely the right thing to do to move away from Russian hydrocarbons but we have to do it step by by step."
"We have got to make sure we have substitute supply. One of the things we are looking at is the possibility of using more of our own hydrocarbons. ‘That doesn’t mean we are in any way abandoning our commitment to reducing CO2 but we have got to reflect the reality that there is a crunch on at the moment. We need to increase our self-reliance."
According to a UK Government press release from March 8, 2022 , Russian oil makes up 44 per cent of Russian exports and 17 per cent of Russian federal government revenue through taxation. UK planned to phase out Russian oil imports. The UK was in easy position as imports were minimal.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:
"In another economic blow to the Putin regime following their illegal invasion of Ukraine, the UK will move away from dependence on Russian oil throughout this year, building on our severe package of international economic sanctions."
"Working with industry, we are confident that this can be achieved over the course of the year, providing enough time for companies to adjust and ensuring consumers are protected."
Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said:
"Unprovoked military aggression will not pay and we will continue to support the brave people of Ukraine as they stand up to tyranny, building on our existing sanctions that are already crippling Putin’s war machine. We have more than enough time for the market and our supply chains to adjust to these essential changes. Businesses should use this year to ensure a smooth transition so that consumers will not be affected."
ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON RUSSIA IS NOT ENOUGH
United Kingdom´s Treasury Committee discussed on March 7, 2022 effectiveness of sanctions: "Oral evidence: Russia: effective economic sanctions, HC 1186".
Kevin Hollinrake adds: "We have mentioned the loss of foreign exchange reserves. It has lost 50% of its foreign exchange reserves by the sanctions imposed on it. How key is that, in terms of its ability to operate and service its debts and so on?"
Neil Shearing: "What has essentially happened is that a lot of the transactions are running through the commercial banking system rather than the central bank. Russia is continuing to export oil and gas. The price of that has gone up, in fact, as a result of the sanctions. The Government have instituted a rule saying that you have to convert 80% of your foreign exchange earnings into roubles. That gives it a mechanism to, essentially, tax the foreign exchange earnings of Russian exporters in the oil and gas sector, so rather than these foreign exchange transactions running through the central bank, they are running through the commercial banking system. For as long as Russia continues to earn oil and gas export revenues, I would envisage there being a capacity to pay foreign exchange debts and to be a source of foreign exchange earnings."
Kevin Hollinrake: "On the impact on the euro area, if there were a sanction on oil and gas, which would be nuclear, if I can put it that way—the toughest sanction we could put on Russia—would that bring about a recession in the euro area?"
Neil Shearing: "Quite possibly. I would not rule out a quarter or two of economic contraction. It is important to state that there is a big difference in the dependence of EU members on Russian gas. Gas is a particular issue, because oil can be bought from anywhere. You can put it on a tank and ship it around the world. Gas tends to be transported through pipes, so it is more difficult to move it between countries. There is a big difference in individual countries’ exposure. France and Spain are not particularly exposed to or dependent on Russian gas, but Germany is. Some EU members on the eastern border of the EU, such as Slovakia and Hungary, are extremely dependent on Russian gas and would be much more exposed if the taps were to be turned off. Every country will pay a price if global energy prices go up. Russia is a net energy exporter. That is just the way that it works."
RUSSIA THREATENS WITH THE RIGHT TO USE THE LEGAL ACT OF RETORSION
"Third, we must maximise the economic pressure on Putin's regime. We must go further on economic sanctions, expelling every Russian bank from SWIFT. We must go after the oligarchs, as the UK is doing – sanctioning over 300 elites and entities including Putin himself and giving our law enforcement agencies unprecedented powers to peel back the façade of dirty Russian money in London. But these measures will be insufficient unless Europe begins to wean itself off the Russian oil and gas that bankrolls Putin’s war machine."
The UK government summary March 6, 2022, emphasized that Liz Truss said: "The West must show Putin its collective strength. Now is the time to be strong to ensure we see off Putin’s aggression for good. We need to double down in supporting Ukraine so that it prevails over Putin and restores its sovereignty. When a European democracy is standing up to tyranny, we will not hesitate to help it defend itself.
But we must go further to cripple Putin’s war machine through sanctions. I am working with our G7 partners to crack down on more Russian banks and agree a clear timetable to eliminate our imports of Russian oil, gas and coal. I am also encouraging them to join the UK in banning Russian ships from our ports and putting Russian gold beyond Putin’s reach.
We must strengthen NATO’s own defence by reinforcing our presence in the East and ensuring that we have the agility to strike aggressors where they are least expecting it."
We must strengthen NATO’s own defence by reinforcing our presence in the East and ensuring that we have the agility to strike aggressors where they are least expecting it."
The Rating agency MOODY on March 6, 2022 downgraded Russia’s ratings to Ca from B3; the outlook negative.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced on March 7, 2022 that he will launch a new "Energy Supply Strategy" in the coming days that hints at using more UK-derived fossil fuels in the short term to reduce reliance on Russian gas.
‘There are going to be impacts but I think it is the right thing to do. It is completely the right thing to do to move away from Russian hydrocarbons but we have to do it step by by step."
"We have got to make sure we have substitute supply. One of the things we are looking at is the possibility of using more of our own hydrocarbons. ‘That doesn’t mean we are in any way abandoning our commitment to reducing CO2 but we have got to reflect the reality that there is a crunch on at the moment. We need to increase our self-reliance."
According to a UK Government press release from March 8, 2022 , Russian oil makes up 44 per cent of Russian exports and 17 per cent of Russian federal government revenue through taxation. UK planned to phase out Russian oil imports. The UK was in easy position as imports were minimal.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:
"In another economic blow to the Putin regime following their illegal invasion of Ukraine, the UK will move away from dependence on Russian oil throughout this year, building on our severe package of international economic sanctions."
"Working with industry, we are confident that this can be achieved over the course of the year, providing enough time for companies to adjust and ensuring consumers are protected."
Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said:
"Unprovoked military aggression will not pay and we will continue to support the brave people of Ukraine as they stand up to tyranny, building on our existing sanctions that are already crippling Putin’s war machine. We have more than enough time for the market and our supply chains to adjust to these essential changes. Businesses should use this year to ensure a smooth transition so that consumers will not be affected."
ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON RUSSIA IS NOT ENOUGH
WE CAN'T CLOSE DOWN USE OF RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS OVERNIGHT
United Kingdom´s Treasury Committee discussed on March 7, 2022 effectiveness of sanctions: "Oral evidence: Russia: effective economic sanctions, HC 1186".
Russian energy sector was identified as a weak point. "From an economic standpoint, if the objective is to hit Russia’s economy, it is the energy sector that you need to touch. Clearly, there is a cost for the rest of the world that that entails. When news broke overnight of oil sanctions potentially being imposed, the price of oil spiked to just over $140 a barrel, so there would be a cost to the rest of the world were we to go down that route. [ … ] but, as a rough rule of thumb, energy is about half of Russia’s exports and about 15% of its economy—more if you include all the associated services."
Kevin Hollinrake adds: "We have mentioned the loss of foreign exchange reserves. It has lost 50% of its foreign exchange reserves by the sanctions imposed on it. How key is that, in terms of its ability to operate and service its debts and so on?"
Neil Shearing: "What has essentially happened is that a lot of the transactions are running through the commercial banking system rather than the central bank. Russia is continuing to export oil and gas. The price of that has gone up, in fact, as a result of the sanctions. The Government have instituted a rule saying that you have to convert 80% of your foreign exchange earnings into roubles. That gives it a mechanism to, essentially, tax the foreign exchange earnings of Russian exporters in the oil and gas sector, so rather than these foreign exchange transactions running through the central bank, they are running through the commercial banking system. For as long as Russia continues to earn oil and gas export revenues, I would envisage there being a capacity to pay foreign exchange debts and to be a source of foreign exchange earnings."
Kevin Hollinrake: "On the impact on the euro area, if there were a sanction on oil and gas, which would be nuclear, if I can put it that way—the toughest sanction we could put on Russia—would that bring about a recession in the euro area?"
Neil Shearing: "Quite possibly. I would not rule out a quarter or two of economic contraction. It is important to state that there is a big difference in the dependence of EU members on Russian gas. Gas is a particular issue, because oil can be bought from anywhere. You can put it on a tank and ship it around the world. Gas tends to be transported through pipes, so it is more difficult to move it between countries. There is a big difference in individual countries’ exposure. France and Spain are not particularly exposed to or dependent on Russian gas, but Germany is. Some EU members on the eastern border of the EU, such as Slovakia and Hungary, are extremely dependent on Russian gas and would be much more exposed if the taps were to be turned off. Every country will pay a price if global energy prices go up. Russia is a net energy exporter. That is just the way that it works."
This record shows that the UK was well aware of negative consequences to some of allies when aiming at Russian energy exports.
RUSSIA THREATENS WITH THE RIGHT TO USE THE LEGAL ACT OF RETORSION
Gazprom voiced its concerns and sent for now vocal warnings that it is considering reciprocal "mirror" measures. One of such could be an Act of Retorsion which allows a state or its entities like Gazprom to respond to sanctions with actions that are legally permissible under international law, such as suspending deliveries, provided these actions do not violate any explicit legal commitments or international treaties.
This article which was published later in summer 2022 looks into the application of this measure:
"The Legality of Russia’s Indefinite Suspension of Nord Stream 1 Gas Pipeline Under International Law". In the context of Gazprom suspending gas deliveries to Europe, particularly through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, (as will happen in a few months after the incident with turbines (171, 173), this act could be seen as retorsion against the unilateral sanctions imposed by Western countries due to the geopolitical situation involving Ukraine. The idea is that Gazprom, as a state-controlled entity, can legally halt deliveries as a response to what Russia perceives as hostile economic measures (sanctions) without breaching international law since there's no obligation under international law explicitly compelling continuous gas supply under such circumstances.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned on March 9, 2022 that: "Russia has the right to take reciprocal measures and stop the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in response to the Nord Stream 2 ban, noting that no one will benefit from it."
In another report is stated that Deputy PM of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak on March 9, 2022 said: "We are fully entitled to take a “mirror” decision and place an embargo on gas transit via Nord Stream 1 which is presently running at 100 percent capacity. We have not taken that decision yet."
The article from Opinio Juris discusses the legality of Russia's suspension of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under international law. It posits that if Gazprom's actions are considered retorsion, they are lawful because retorsion involves actions that are unfriendly but not necessarily illegal. The suspension of gas supplies would fit within this framework if it's in response to sanctions that Russia views as an unfriendly act.
European countries might respond with further sanctions or legal actions under international law or through arbitration, arguing over contractual obligations or the impact on civilians (though retorsion doesn't directly violate international obligations, it can lead to humanitarian concerns). And this is what exactly happened in Stockholm arbitration case in 2024 where Uniper wins $14 billion arbitration ruling against Gazprom as reported on June 12, 2024. Despite the court stating that it was a final decision Gazprom made mirror claim in Russia of the same value as it argued that due to sanctions their representatives were unable to attend the court. The story is not yet over even now in 2025 when this research is being conducted.
DIPLOMATICALLY, POLITICALLY, ECONOMICALLY – AND EVENTUALLY, MILITARILY
Statement by Kwasi Kwarteng, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, on the phasing out of Russian oil imports from March 9, 2022: "But we want to go further, Madam Deputy Speaker. Yesterday I set out that the UK is phasing out imports of Russian oil during the course of the year. This transition will give the market, it will give businesses and supply chains more than enough time to substitute Russian imports."
Liz Truss is said to see fracking as a possible route to increasing the UK’s independence from Russian energy sources as the Ukrainian invasion escalates from March 10, 2022
British foreign secretary Liz Truss also said on March 10, 2022 that Russia should be fully excluded from SWIFT
At the Atlantic Council, in the Christopher J. Makins "Lecture to address the global ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression" Foreign Minister Liz Truss on 10 March 2022 in "The foreign secretary’s lecture" explained:
"In the late 1990s, I worked for Shell. And one of my first roles was [at a] ship refurbishment project in Norfolk, Virginia, just south of here, and I was overseeing two LNG vessels that had been mothballed due to lack of demand. Back then in the oil industry, we were modeling oil prices at ten dollars a barrel. Today, it is heading towards two hundred dollars a barrel. It feels like a different world."
Diplomatically, politically, economically – and eventually, militarily, on March 9, 2022, the UK Prime Minister´s message was clear: "Putin must fail in his invasion of Ukraine. The world is united in condemning the invasion and taking action."
On March 9, 2022, Truss declared, "The Ukraine crisis is a wake-up call for free democracies. I am in the US to take forward support for Ukraine, degrading the economy funding Putin’s war machine, and isolating Russia internationally: Putin must be held to account. Putin must fail in Ukraine."
The leaders of Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, and the UK, on March 9, 2022, stand united against Putin's invasion of Ukraine – a premeditated attack on a sovereign, democratic state. Working at pace with our allies and partners, we are using every lever we can to ensure Putin fails and Ukraine is free once more.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, on March 9, 2022 , said she believes the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project is currently "dead" and is unlikely to ever be "revived".
Liz Truss met with US Secretary Blinken and agreed more action is needed to hold Putin to account for his barbaric invasion of Ukraine from March 9, 2022 . They agreed that: "We must reduce dependency on Russian oil & gas, isolate Russia internationally, and keep supporting Ukraine."
Liz Truss met with US Secretary Blinken and agreed more action is needed to hold Putin to account for his barbaric invasion of Ukraine from March 9, 2022 . They agreed that: "We must reduce dependency on Russian oil & gas, isolate Russia internationally, and keep supporting Ukraine."
Statement by Kwasi Kwarteng, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, on the phasing out of Russian oil imports from March 9, 2022: "But we want to go further, Madam Deputy Speaker. Yesterday I set out that the UK is phasing out imports of Russian oil during the course of the year. This transition will give the market, it will give businesses and supply chains more than enough time to substitute Russian imports."
To support UK´s Energy security in case of all Russian energy exports are stopped and to support domestic production Liz Truss backed return of fracking. The purpose was to stop Russia holding UK to ransom on gas, the news came on March 9, 2022. (027)
Liz Truss is said to see fracking as a possible route to increasing the UK’s independence from Russian energy sources as the Ukrainian invasion escalates from March 10, 2022
UK: Boris Johnson: I spoke to President Zelenskyy to thank him for his address to the House of Commons and to update him on our tough new sanctions against the Putin regime. We will tighten these to impose the maximum economic cost on Russia and are stepping up our military support to Ukraine from March 10, 2022 .
On her twitter account Liz Truss states on March 10 2022 that she: "Spoke with US Speaker Pelosi about the importance of deterring Russia, reducing strategic oil & gas dependence, and building closer alliances to stand up to authoritarian regimes. We stand with Ukraine."
On her twitter account Liz Truss states on March 10 2022 that she: "Spoke with US Speaker Pelosi about the importance of deterring Russia, reducing strategic oil & gas dependence, and building closer alliances to stand up to authoritarian regimes. We stand with Ukraine."
British foreign secretary Liz Truss also said on March 10, 2022 that Russia should be fully excluded from SWIFT
At the Atlantic Council, in the Christopher J. Makins "Lecture to address the global ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression" Foreign Minister Liz Truss on 10 March 2022 in "The foreign secretary’s lecture" explained:
"In the late 1990s, I worked for Shell. And one of my first roles was [at a] ship refurbishment project in Norfolk, Virginia, just south of here, and I was overseeing two LNG vessels that had been mothballed due to lack of demand. Back then in the oil industry, we were modeling oil prices at ten dollars a barrel. Today, it is heading towards two hundred dollars a barrel. It feels like a different world."
"Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a ‘paradigm shift on the scale of 9/11"
"The fact is that the UK, the US, EU, Japan, and Canada moved in unison [and] gave this action incredible scale. It has been, truly, global. Even Switzerland has put aside its historic neutrality. Singapore has imposed bilateral sanctions for the first time since the 1970s, and in the United Kingdom, we put in place the toughest package of sanctions in our history, hitting over two hundred individuals, entities, and subsidiaries, including Putin himself.
We’ve hit £300 billion worth of Russian bank assets, more than any other nation, and this week, we changed the law in the United Kingdom to allow us to take even tougher action against oligarchs and others around Putin. Today, we have sanctioned Roman Abramovich and other major oligarchs, showing that we will act without fear and without favor."
"If we are to persuade Putin and future Putins that we are serious, we need to do things differently."
"First of all, we must end the strategic dependence which puts our economies and security at the risk and mercy of malign actors. Europe remains deeply reliant on Russian energy. This provides a vital source of revenue for Putin, and it must end. Together with the United States, we announced that we will phase out Russian oil imports and I welcome the EU’s plan to cut its imports of Russian gas by two-thirds this year. We’re working with our G7 partners to cut this dependence once and for all, to put a ceiling on the percentage of Russian energy imports, and [to commit] to bring it down over time. And we need to look at how we can help those countries that are especially dependent on Russian energy and how we can increase supplies elsewhere...
...The fundamental driver of the Russian economy is oil and gas, and the absolute key has to be reducing dependency on oil and gas. And I recognize many European countries are very dependent. Some have as much as 80, 90, 100 percent dependence on Russia. We have to help them get off that dependence. We have to find alternatives. In the longer term, that’s about nuclear and renewables. In the short term, it’s about finding alternative sources."
"Thirdly, we need to develop stronger alliances around the world. The UK is deepening our global economic, diplomatic, and security ties, and we need to see the entire free world reach out. We’re rallying those 141 countries that voted to condemn Russia’s actions at the UN and we’re persuading those that abstained to toughen their resolve. We need to draw more countries into the orbit of those who are prepared to stand up for sovereignty."
FREDERICK KEMPE: "How important is it right now, as we see more atrocities coming out of Ukraine, to take further military action or military support… on behalf of allies, on behalf of the UK, on behalf of the US? And what specifically ought that be?"
LIZ TRUSS: "Well, we need to do as much as possible as early as possible to help Ukraine in its self-defense."
FREDERICK KEMPE: "How important is it right now, as we see more atrocities coming out of Ukraine, to take further military action or military support… on behalf of allies, on behalf of the UK, on behalf of the US? And what specifically ought that be?"
LIZ TRUSS: "Well, we need to do as much as possible as early as possible to help Ukraine in its self-defense."
On March 10, 2022 Britain Urges All G7 Members To Ban Russia Oil Imports. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on Wednesday called on the entire G7 to ban Russia oil imports, saying the world’s leading economies should “go further and faster” in punishing Moscow for invading Ukraine. Standing alongside US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Truss also hailed transatlantic unity against Russian aggression, saying the strength of the alliance has “surprised” President Vladimir Putin and that more must be done to assure his invasion fails.
“We must double down on our sanctions. That includes… the G7 ending its use of Russian oil and gas and implementing a full ban on Russian banks using the SWIFT bank messaging system", Truss said in a joint press conference with Blinken at the State Department in Washington.
“Now is not the time to let up. Putin must fail,” she added.
Newspapers republish on March 10, 2022 UK FM Liz Truss statements: "Ukraine War has led to paradigm shift in how countries evaluate threats"
In response Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on March 10, 2022 lambasts statement by Truss that Russia could attack Baltic states. According to Lavrov, Truss’s statement is “quite exemplary of English culture, politics and diplomacy.” and “That’s because the British wrote the fake testament of Peter the Great in exactly the same way,” the minister said. “This basically goes along the same lines.” Truss said in an interview with the Daily Mail on February 20, 2022 that Russia wouldn’t stop at Ukraine if the West allowed Russia to invade the country. She said the Baltic states and Western Balkans were at risk.
In response Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on March 10, 2022 lambasts statement by Truss that Russia could attack Baltic states. According to Lavrov, Truss’s statement is “quite exemplary of English culture, politics and diplomacy.” and “That’s because the British wrote the fake testament of Peter the Great in exactly the same way,” the minister said. “This basically goes along the same lines.” Truss said in an interview with the Daily Mail on February 20, 2022 that Russia wouldn’t stop at Ukraine if the West allowed Russia to invade the country. She said the Baltic states and Western Balkans were at risk.
RUSSIA IS OFICIALLY UK´S No 1 DANGER
11 March 2022 - UK: Ukraine-Russia war: The era of complacency is over, says Liz Truss
In a tweet, Boris Johnson said he had spoken to Ukraine's President Zelensky, and that the UK would tighten sanctions to "impose the maximum economic cost on Russia" and increase military support to Ukraine. "We want a situation where they can't access their funds, they can't clear their payments, their trade can't flow, their ships can't dock and their planes can't land," Liz Truss added.
On March 11, 2022, Truss slapped Russia with brutal £30bn sanctions as the UK vowed to topple 'Putin's war machine'.
Truss on 11 March 2022 met US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss our defensive and humanitarian support for Ukraine, and stepping up economic sanctions against Putin’s regime. "Our two countries are working in lockstep to ensure Putin fails in Ukraine."
British finance minister Rishi Sunak called on 13 March 13, 2022 on more British companies on Sunday to wind down their existing investments in Russia and said new investments should be halted after President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. Rishi Sunak, on March 13, 2022 also urged UK companies to stop investing in Russia.
The UK's new foreign policy, announced on March 14, 2022 , identifies Russia as No 1 danger.
The UK issued a press release on March 15, 2022 where Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced a historic round of sanctions on Russia. She stated, "We are going further and faster than ever in hitting those closest to Putin – from major oligarchs, to his Prime Minister, and the propagandists who peddle his lies and disinformation. We are holding them to account for their complicity in Russia’s crimes in Ukraine.... Working closely with our allies, we will keep increasing the pressure on Putin and cut off funding for the Russian war machine."
Truss provided an update on sanctions on March 15, 2022, saying, "After today we will have designated over 1,000 individuals and entities since Russia’s invasion. This includes over 370 new sanctions announced today - possible thanks to the new Economic Crime Act. Putin must fail in Ukraine."
Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia on March 16, 2022, Mohammed bin Salman. They agreed to collaborate to maintain stability in the energy market and continue the transition to clean technology. They also committed to boost cooperation in defence and trade.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson met on March 16, 2022 the Crown Prince of the UAE Mohamed Bin Zayed. They welcomed the longstanding partnership between our two countries and discussed opportunities to increase collaboration on energy security, defence and trade.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson March 16, 2022 discussed why it’s vital that we invest in renewable energy and end the West’s reliance on Putin’s oil and gas. See video news here
On his twitter account on March 17, 2022 Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces: "We need to wean the West off Russian oil and gas to punish Putin’s war machine." He has been working with partners in the UAE and Saudi Arabia on stabilising global energy markets and ramping up investments in renewable technologies.
Russia edged closer to averting default as JPMorgan processed bond payment on March 17, 2022, according to the Financial Times.
The UK issued a press release on March 15, 2022 where Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced a historic round of sanctions on Russia. She stated, "We are going further and faster than ever in hitting those closest to Putin – from major oligarchs, to his Prime Minister, and the propagandists who peddle his lies and disinformation. We are holding them to account for their complicity in Russia’s crimes in Ukraine.... Working closely with our allies, we will keep increasing the pressure on Putin and cut off funding for the Russian war machine."
Truss provided an update on sanctions on March 15, 2022, saying, "After today we will have designated over 1,000 individuals and entities since Russia’s invasion. This includes over 370 new sanctions announced today - possible thanks to the new Economic Crime Act. Putin must fail in Ukraine."
THE JEF "CAN ACT OUTSIDE OF THE NATO FRAMEWORK
UNDER THE THRESHOLD OF NATO ARTICLE 5
Denmark was hosting on March 3, 2022 Exercise United Blade integrating all ten JEF nations, developing jointly responses to threats, and strengthening European and international security
On March 13, 2022 UK announces it will host Joint Expeditionary Force leaders for talks on Ukraine crisis. Talks will cover "increasing defensive military support to Ukraine" and the issue of "long-term energy security", it said, while the Prime Minister will urge the coalition to work towards "greater resilience against hostile state threats". The Prime Minister said resilience to Mr Putin's threats must "go beyond our military footing". Then he added: "Together… we must ensure we are insulated from Russia's interference and impact on our energy supplies, economy and values".
Norwegian-led military exercise Cold Response 2022 was held 14 Match 2022 - 1 April 2022
Joint Expeditionary Force leaders' statement was released on March 15, 2022. It marked the first operational deployment for JEF and included intensive training with helicopters, refuelling at sea, gunnery and air defence, sailing in close formation and acclimatising to sub-zero temperatures as JEF ships operated deep in the Baltic.
The Twitter account of UK Prime Minister, @10DowningStreet posted on March 15, 2022 that: "Today the Prime Minister is meeting representatives of the Joint Expeditionary Force in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine."
Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) leaders' statement from 15 March 2022: "We commit to an enhanced programme of integrated JEF exercises and activities at sea, on land and in the air in the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea region. These activities, already being developed, demonstrate our solidarity, capability and resolve. We will work in complementarity to NATO and the EU to ensure that Russia cannot continue to threaten European security, including through recalibrating our approach to Russia, reducing our reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, taking part in forward defence in conjunction with our Allies, reinforcing our cooperation within and beyond the JEF, and playing an active part in restoring a safer and more peaceful world."
Article from 16 March 2022 explains "What is the Joint Expeditionary Force?"
Article from 16 March 2022 explains "What is the Joint Expeditionary Force?"
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) says the UK is "proud to be at the centre of JEF", acting as the alliance's "framework" nation. This involved "military formations within NATO, between like-minded partners that could co-operate together on military capabilities and military operations", he said.
So The Joint Expeditionary Force is the framework led by the UK. The JEF "can act outside of the NATO framework", explained Mr Monaghan, so nations outside of NATO such as Sweden "presumably" are able to call on other JEF members to fulfill security commitments – separate to the formal obligations in other alliances.
Has the Joint Expeditionary Force deployed on operations?
In March last year, three members of JEF joined the UK to conduct maritime patrols in the Baltic Sea.
HMS Lancaster and HMS Westminster were joined by RFA Tiderace and vessels from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for a joint demonstration of the participant nations' commitment to the security and stability of the region.
It marked the first operational deployment for JEF and included intensive training with helicopters, refuelling at sea, gunnery and air defence, sailing in close formation and acclimatising to sub-zero temperatures as JEF ships operated deep in the Baltic.
So The Joint Expeditionary Force is the framework led by the UK. The JEF "can act outside of the NATO framework", explained Mr Monaghan, so nations outside of NATO such as Sweden "presumably" are able to call on other JEF members to fulfill security commitments – separate to the formal obligations in other alliances.
Has the Joint Expeditionary Force deployed on operations?
In March last year, three members of JEF joined the UK to conduct maritime patrols in the Baltic Sea.
HMS Lancaster and HMS Westminster were joined by RFA Tiderace and vessels from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for a joint demonstration of the participant nations' commitment to the security and stability of the region.
It marked the first operational deployment for JEF and included intensive training with helicopters, refuelling at sea, gunnery and air defence, sailing in close formation and acclimatising to sub-zero temperatures as JEF ships operated deep in the Baltic.
Prime Ministers of UK and Prime Minister of Sweden met on March 15, 2022. The pair agreed that their two nations should further strengthen their work together on disinformation, and said they looked forward to British and Swedish forces exercising together as part of JEF in the coming months. Both agreed on the need to reduce dependency on Russian hydrocarbons, and the Prime Minister said renewables were a key part of the UK’s energy security strategy. The Prime Minister said the UK and Sweden’s relationship was going from strength to strength and he hoped that the two nations would continue to work closely to increase defence ties, combat climate change and ensure Putin fails.
On March 19, 2022 Boris Johnson tells The Economist about his anti-Russia coalition. The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force is moving quickly against Russia. On the night of March 14th, while Russian forces were pounding Ukrainian cities, six leaders and other representatives of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a British-led coalition of ten northern European countries, gathered for the first time at Chequers, the country house of Britain’s prime minister. They put their phones away for security, sat down to dinner and set to work. “We agreed that Putin must not succeed in this venture,” Boris Johnson told The Economist the next day.
JEF largely unknown outside defence circles, was established a decade ago as a high-readiness force focused on the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea regions (see map for its members). Unlike NATO, it does not need internal consensus to deploy troops in a crisis: Britain, the “framework” nation, could launch operations with one or more partners. As one British officer puts it: “The JEF can act while NATO is thinking.”
They agreed to “co-ordinate, supply and fund” more arms and other equipment requested by Ukraine. And they declared that JEF, through exercises and “forward defence”, would seek to deter further Russian aggression—including provocations outside Ukraine that might stymie nato or fall under its threshold.
Norway’s new P-8 Poseidon will be NATO's eyes and ears in the High North. On May 18, 2022 the government announced that the new highly specialized surveillance aircrafts will counter Russia’s submarine threat in Arctic waters. "The two first P-8s arrived at Evenes earlier this winter and are now under testing for deploying. Three more will arrive from the Boeing factory in Seattle later this year and in 2023. When fully operational, the P-8s will replace Norway’s three DA-20 Jet Falcon and four P-3C Orion - a turboprop aircraft flying missions over the Norwegian- and Barents Seas since the late 1980s." (182)
Packed in canisters, the 129 sonobuoys are the most important gear onboard and allows the P-8 Poseidon to survey a larger area in search of submarines. A sonobuoy ejected from the plane in an area if a suspected submarine will go down to a pre-programmed depth, somewhere between the surface and a few hundred meters deep in the water.
Data picked up from the sonobuoy transmit via the antenna which remains above the surface directly to the computers onboard the aircraft and are processed by the acoustic and electronic operators in the plane. With several buoys at sea, they will emit acoustic waves underwater and when these waves hit the hull of a submarine, they bounce back so the operators on the plane can detect direction, distance and depth. The crew can encircle exact location and follow the submarine’s route. (181)
JEF largely unknown outside defence circles, was established a decade ago as a high-readiness force focused on the High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea regions (see map for its members). Unlike NATO, it does not need internal consensus to deploy troops in a crisis: Britain, the “framework” nation, could launch operations with one or more partners. As one British officer puts it: “The JEF can act while NATO is thinking.”
They agreed to “co-ordinate, supply and fund” more arms and other equipment requested by Ukraine. And they declared that JEF, through exercises and “forward defence”, would seek to deter further Russian aggression—including provocations outside Ukraine that might stymie nato or fall under its threshold.
Norway’s new P-8 Poseidon will be NATO's eyes and ears in the High North. On May 18, 2022 the government announced that the new highly specialized surveillance aircrafts will counter Russia’s submarine threat in Arctic waters. "The two first P-8s arrived at Evenes earlier this winter and are now under testing for deploying. Three more will arrive from the Boeing factory in Seattle later this year and in 2023. When fully operational, the P-8s will replace Norway’s three DA-20 Jet Falcon and four P-3C Orion - a turboprop aircraft flying missions over the Norwegian- and Barents Seas since the late 1980s." (182)
Packed in canisters, the 129 sonobuoys are the most important gear onboard and allows the P-8 Poseidon to survey a larger area in search of submarines. A sonobuoy ejected from the plane in an area if a suspected submarine will go down to a pre-programmed depth, somewhere between the surface and a few hundred meters deep in the water.
Data picked up from the sonobuoy transmit via the antenna which remains above the surface directly to the computers onboard the aircraft and are processed by the acoustic and electronic operators in the plane. With several buoys at sea, they will emit acoustic waves underwater and when these waves hit the hull of a submarine, they bounce back so the operators on the plane can detect direction, distance and depth. The crew can encircle exact location and follow the submarine’s route. (181)
Boris Johnson said on March 30, 2022 the JEF is playing an increasingly important role in countering Russian aggression.
WEANING THE WEST OFF RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS
ADVANCING PRE-AGREEMENTS FOR DELIVERIES
PREPARING OWN MARKETS FOR CUTTING PIPELINES
Liz Truss faced embarrassment on March 11, 2022 , when she made a last-minute U-turn on her controversial plan to PAY countries to sever their energy links with Russia, dropping the policy idea at the 11th hour before her major speech in the US. Ms Truss had been expected to say that 'we should look at potential compensation for countries that are especially dependent on Russian energy'. But the line was dropped when she delivered the speech, as she said instead that 'we need to look at how we can help those countries especially dependent on Russian energy, and how we can increase supplies elsewhere'. It is unclear why the compensation line was dropped from the speech and why it was replaced with the broader commitment to help countries.
On March 13, 2022, the UK detailed its imports of fossil fuels from Russia. The following three pages summarise the latest data on UK imports of gas, oil, and coal from Russia. The final page looks at how much European countries relied on Russian energy in the decade to 2020.
Boris Johnson posted on his Twitter account on March 14, 2022: "It was good to meet with leaders from the oil and gas industry, which has an important part in producing the energy we need to move away from Russian hydrocarbons and transition to a more stable, sustainable, and cleaner energy future. Moscow was branded hostile and China a competitor, according to a key security review to be revealed this week.!"
The Prime Minister welcomed Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš to Downing Street on March 14, 2022. They discussed deepening our defence ties, further support for Ukraine, and reducing the West's reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
Boris Johnson stated on March 15, 2022, that the U.K. must 'Double Down' on green energy to weaken Putin. He also commented after meeting with companies: 2Good to meet with leaders from the oil and gas industry today – which has an important part in producing the energy we need to move away from Russian hydrocarbons and transition to a more stable, sustainable and cleaner energy future.2
The Times report that "UK’s new foreign policy — Russia is No 1 danger" on March 15, 2022 explaining that: "Moscow branded hostile and China a competitor, says a key security review to be revealed this week" (027)
The Times report that "UK’s new foreign policy — Russia is No 1 danger" on March 15, 2022 explaining that: "Moscow branded hostile and China a competitor, says a key security review to be revealed this week" (027)
Qatar’s Amir and UK’s Boris Johnson discussed on March 15, 2022 Ukraine and energy security. Qatar has previously said that it could possibly divert 10%-to-15% of its liquified natural gas (LNG) shipping volumes. The LNG giant also stressed that it cannot unilaterally fill the gap of Europe’s entire gas supplies.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson met on March 16, 2022 the Crown Prince of the UAE Mohamed Bin Zayed. They welcomed the longstanding partnership between our two countries and discussed opportunities to increase collaboration on energy security, defence and trade.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson March 16, 2022 discussed why it’s vital that we invest in renewable energy and end the West’s reliance on Putin’s oil and gas. See video news here
On his twitter account on March 17, 2022 Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces: "We need to wean the West off Russian oil and gas to punish Putin’s war machine." He has been working with partners in the UAE and Saudi Arabia on stabilising global energy markets and ramping up investments in renewable technologies.
Boris Johnson was on a tour in Middle east visiting energy exporters checking their capabilities to stabilize energy markets and their willingness to step in would West succeed curbing Russian energy exports.
The Canadian sanctions legislation, which entered into force on March 17, 2022, imposed “an asset freeze and dealings prohibition” on designated Russian persons, including Gazprom.
Liz Truss said on March 19, 2022: "West must ‘never again’ choose cheap goods over freedom and security"
In a speech to the Conservative spring conference in Blackpool, Ms Truss linked the UK’s boycott of Russian oil with the exclusion of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei from the phone network as she said that the West needed to end its “dependency on authoritarian regimes”.
“When we are facing tyrants like Vladimir Putin, the only thing he understands is strength. We need to stand up for our society. We must never let our guard down again.”
“Britain has stepped up. Now we must do even more. Putin must lose in Ukraine. With Britain at the forefront, we will ensure he does.”
“When we are facing tyrants like Vladimir Putin, the only thing he understands is strength. We need to stand up for our society. We must never let our guard down again.”
“Britain has stepped up. Now we must do even more. Putin must lose in Ukraine. With Britain at the forefront, we will ensure he does.”
On March 21, 2022 the Prime Minister Boris Johnson met nuclear industry leaders today to discuss how to improve domestic energy security and accelerate nuclear projects in the UK.
THE EFFECT OF ANTI-RUSSIAN MEASURES
Russia edged closer to averting default as JPMorgan processed bond payment on March 17, 2022, according to the Financial Times.
On March 17. 2022, a research update stated that Russia's Foreign and Local Currency Ratings were lowered to ‘CC’ due to high vulnerability to debt nonpayment, and were still on Watch Negative.
Russian bond interest payments flowed through the western financial system on March 18, 2022.
Gazprom announced on March 22, 2022, that it was keeping its gas reserve addition rates above production rates for 17 consecutive years, with Gazprom's gas reserves growing by 523 billion cubic meters, which is higher than the Company's gas production volume.
UNDER ONE VOICE AND IN THE LEAD
Sanctions: the impact on Russia
Prime Minister Boris Johnson met the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on March 24, 2022 at the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Brussels. The leaders committed to strengthen the economic sanctions on Putin’s regime and continue working together to diversify energy sources and move away from reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
Liz Truss met on March 24, 2022 colleagues from USA, HUN, ALB, ITA and many others at G7 and NATO. "We are working together to ensure Putin fails in Ukraine through security support to Ukraine and tough sanctions on Russia."
Every step we take will be designed to help restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. That is why we are going deeper and broader in our mission to ensure Putin fails."
Diplomatic ties were severed and attempts to find diplomatic compromise replaced by war hawks trying to find way how Ukraine could make the impossible, to defeat Russian leadership politically, diplomatically and later militarily.
Downing Street announced on March 25, 2022 news about UK Prime Minister: "Yesterday the Prime Minister joined other NATO and G7 leaders in Brussels to come together and step up efforts to isolate Putin on the global stage."
Liz Truss spoke on March 25, 2022 to French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. They discussed increasing support to Ukraine, tightening sanctions on Russia and how to make sure Putin fails.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss updated on March 28, 2022 the House of Commons on the situation in Ukraine and on the NATO and G7 Leaders meetings in Brussels last week. Key takeaways were again about ending Russian energy exports:
29 March 2022 - DK: Energinet has repaired cable connection between Bornholm and Sweden
Danish electricity system operator Energinet said it took a month to repair the electricity link between Bornholm and Sweden. The damage was more extensive than originally thought. The cable was probably damaged by a ship’s anchor.
While the submarine cable was broken, Bornholm was supplied with electricity from its own generation sources.
Later investigations showed that the cable was probably pulled through the ship’s anchor. The vessel that was passing over the cable when the failure occurred has been identified and Energinet has initiated insurance proceedings.
Danish electricity system operator Energinet said on April 26, 2022 it took a month to repair the electricity link between Bornholm and Sweden. The cable was located at a depth of about 50 meters Subsequent investigations have shown that the cable was probably torn apart by a ship's anchor. Energinet has also registered interruptions of the submarine cable in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2010. In order to minimize the risk of further anchor damage, Energinet decided in 2018 to flush the cable into the seabed on the part of the section between Bornholm and Sweden where there has previously been ship damage. It is on this stretch, where the cable has washed down to the seabed, that Saturday's short circuit occurred. This is the consequence of the physical damage where the cable's insulation was breached, leading to an electrical short circuit that disrupted the power supply. During the repair process, Energinet found additional old damages on the cable that had not caused short circuits before but were severe enough to warrant replacement. This unexpected discovery extended the repair time as more cable needed to be replaced than initially anticipated. The perpetrator of the damage to the submarine cable near Bornholm in 2022 has been identified as the tanker Samus Swan, operated by Uni-Tankers.
"I fear the negotiation is yet another attempt to create a diversion and create a smokescreen. I don't think we're yet at a point for negotiation," she added.
Same message about UK´s statements were noticed in Germany. Deutche Welle reported on March 19, 2022 that UK warned against postwar reset with Putin.
While Russia and Putin wanted ‘normalization’ of global relations as saying there is ‘no need’ for sanctions on Russia on March 4, 2022 the UK´s position of no-normalization was opposite. This policy was consistently applied from March to September 2022. (032)
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree − Decree 172 − on 31 March 2022 that obligated, starting 1 April, purchasers of Russian pipeline gas from countries on Russia's Unfriendly Countries List to make their payments for Russian gas through a facility run by Russia's Gazprombank, a subsidiary of Gazprom.
This Decree No. 172, titled “On special procedure for the fulfilment of obligations by foreign buyers to Russian Natural Gas suppliers” (the “Decree”), under which gas supplied by Russian exporters after 1 April 2022 to “unfriendly” states was requested to be paid by way of a multi-step mechanism through specialised Gazprombank accounts − regardless of the actual contractual terms. The rationale behind the Decree was purportedly to strengthen the value of the rouble, which had weakened dramatically following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February.
UNDER ONE VOICE AND IN THE LEAD
Going deeper and broader to ensure Putin fails after securing alternative suppliers
The UK seemed to be invested in weaking the West off Russian energy
On March 23, 2022 UK Parliament released House of Commons Committee report, with recommendations to government named: "Defeating Putin: the development, implementation and impact of economic sanctions on Russia"
On March 23, 2022 UK Parliament released House of Commons Committee report, with recommendations to government named: "Defeating Putin: the development, implementation and impact of economic sanctions on Russia"
Sanctions: the impact on Russia
"We invited witnesses to set out their assessment of the economic impact upon Russia of sanctions already imposed. Prior to our hearing, on 2 March 2022, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) had suggested that sanctions would lead to a 2.6% fall in Russian GDP next year in comparison to its previous forecast.40 However, in evidence to us on 14 March 2022, Professor Jagjit Chadha, Director at NIESR, spoke of “a very large hit to activity in the Russian economy” and noted that, if further sanctions were to be imposed to shut off Russian energy exports:
[ … ] you could imagine those numbers at least doubling or even tripling from where we posited them last week, so to 5% or more in terms of the contraction in the Russian economy. Once we are into those sorts of numbers, we need to go from a quantitative statement to a qualitative statement, which is to say that that will be a very large hit on the Russian economy, which will be terribly problematic and will have a distributional consequence: it will be particularly damaging for those on fixed incomes or low wages...
Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, held a similar view, telling us that “you will get a fall in GDP of more than 5%, I’m sure, and probably closer to 10%. There is going to be an acute period of pain over the next 18 months to two years in Russia.”42 He believed that if energy was included in the sanctions package, the negative impact on growth “[ … ] becomes substantially larger—maybe [shrinking] 15% or 20%, so substantial hits to the real economy. That spreads through the economy but obviously hits Russian consumers particularly”.43 But he also noted that “I think that, unless something changes, Russia is now set on a path towards long-term economic isolation; and in those circumstances, there is going to be a period of less acute but persistent economic weakness—stagnation, if you like—for a long period”
Alongside this hit to economic growth, Professor Chadha noted that “We currently expect [Russian] inflation to go into the region of 20% to 30%”.45 The Russian rouble has also devalued, and its exchange rate remains volatile. At the time of writing, it is around 25% lower against the US dollar than it was immediately prior to the invasion.46 However, given the lack of complete sanctions on Russian energy, Professor Chadha also noted that high oil and gas prices “[ … ] in foreign exchange terms has provided the Russian economy with a large hedge"
[ … ] you could imagine those numbers at least doubling or even tripling from where we posited them last week, so to 5% or more in terms of the contraction in the Russian economy. Once we are into those sorts of numbers, we need to go from a quantitative statement to a qualitative statement, which is to say that that will be a very large hit on the Russian economy, which will be terribly problematic and will have a distributional consequence: it will be particularly damaging for those on fixed incomes or low wages...
Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, held a similar view, telling us that “you will get a fall in GDP of more than 5%, I’m sure, and probably closer to 10%. There is going to be an acute period of pain over the next 18 months to two years in Russia.”42 He believed that if energy was included in the sanctions package, the negative impact on growth “[ … ] becomes substantially larger—maybe [shrinking] 15% or 20%, so substantial hits to the real economy. That spreads through the economy but obviously hits Russian consumers particularly”.43 But he also noted that “I think that, unless something changes, Russia is now set on a path towards long-term economic isolation; and in those circumstances, there is going to be a period of less acute but persistent economic weakness—stagnation, if you like—for a long period”
Alongside this hit to economic growth, Professor Chadha noted that “We currently expect [Russian] inflation to go into the region of 20% to 30%”.45 The Russian rouble has also devalued, and its exchange rate remains volatile. At the time of writing, it is around 25% lower against the US dollar than it was immediately prior to the invasion.46 However, given the lack of complete sanctions on Russian energy, Professor Chadha also noted that high oil and gas prices “[ … ] in foreign exchange terms has provided the Russian economy with a large hedge"
Liz Truss and Boris Johnson attended NATO Summit to discuss further steps to reassure Allies and deter any threats to NATO after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. On March 24, 2022 Truss posted on Twitter: "Today @BorisJohnson and I are at the @NATO Summit to discuss further steps to reassure Allies and deter any threats to NATO after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."
Prime Minister Boris Johnson met the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on March 24, 2022 at the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Brussels. The leaders committed to strengthen the economic sanctions on Putin’s regime and continue working together to diversify energy sources and move away from reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
Liz Truss met on March 24, 2022 colleagues from USA, HUN, ALB, ITA and many others at G7 and NATO. "We are working together to ensure Putin fails in Ukraine through security support to Ukraine and tough sanctions on Russia."
On March 24, 2022 Liz Truss spoke to @WBHoekstra about further coordinated sanctions against Putin and those who support him. The Netherlands and UK will continue to firmly and swiftly impose crippling economic measures on Russia’s war machine.
The official public policy is summarized on March 25, 2022 in article by Liz Truss: "Going deeper and broader to ensure Putin fails". Writing in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) the Foreign Secretary explains her mission to help restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
"Our alliance of democracies covers more than half of the global economy, which gives us unmatched leverage to exert through sanctions. Our actions under German leadership have cemented the G7’s position as the most important coordinating body in this mission. We have collectively hit Russia’s oligarchs, banks and businesses, cutting off funds to the Putin regime and degrading its ability to sustain aggression...
I applaud Chancellor Scholz for heralding a turning point with his decisive leadership on defence and security. He has taken the historic decision to boost Germany’s defence spending and start sending military aid to help Ukraine defend itself.
The official public policy is summarized on March 25, 2022 in article by Liz Truss: "Going deeper and broader to ensure Putin fails". Writing in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) the Foreign Secretary explains her mission to help restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
"Our alliance of democracies covers more than half of the global economy, which gives us unmatched leverage to exert through sanctions. Our actions under German leadership have cemented the G7’s position as the most important coordinating body in this mission. We have collectively hit Russia’s oligarchs, banks and businesses, cutting off funds to the Putin regime and degrading its ability to sustain aggression...
I applaud Chancellor Scholz for heralding a turning point with his decisive leadership on defence and security. He has taken the historic decision to boost Germany’s defence spending and start sending military aid to help Ukraine defend itself.
He has also shown boldness by freezing Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In the same spirit, the UK is stepping up as NATO’s largest defence spender in Europe to supply Ukraine with next-generation anti-tank weapons and anti-air missiles. We are also working with our allies to reduce our dependency together on Russian oil and gas. It may be hard, but freedom and security must come first.
Every step we take will be designed to help restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. That is why we are going deeper and broader in our mission to ensure Putin fails."
Diplomatic ties were severed and attempts to find diplomatic compromise replaced by war hawks trying to find way how Ukraine could make the impossible, to defeat Russian leadership politically, diplomatically and later militarily.
Downing Street announced on March 25, 2022 news about UK Prime Minister: "Yesterday the Prime Minister joined other NATO and G7 leaders in Brussels to come together and step up efforts to isolate Putin on the global stage."
Liz Truss spoke on March 25, 2022 to French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. They discussed increasing support to Ukraine, tightening sanctions on Russia and how to make sure Putin fails.
25 March 2022 - UK/NATO: Truss/Johnson: The UK, @NATO and our allies are as united as ever in taking action to guarantee European security, ensure Putin's failure and restore Ukrainian liberty
The Prime Minister met on March 25, 2022 with President of the EU Commission Von der Leyen. They committed to strengthen economic sanctions on Putin’s regime and continue working together to diversify energy sources – moving away from reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
The Prime Minister met on March 25, 2022 with President of the EU Commission Von der Leyen. They committed to strengthen economic sanctions on Putin’s regime and continue working together to diversify energy sources – moving away from reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss updated on March 28, 2022 the House of Commons on the situation in Ukraine and on the NATO and G7 Leaders meetings in Brussels last week. Key takeaways were again about ending Russian energy exports:
"Strength is the only thing Putin understands.
Our sanctions are pushing back the Russian economy by years.
We owe it to the brave Ukrainians to keep up our tough approach to get peace. We owe it to ourselves to stand with them for the cause of freedom and democracy in Europe and across the world.
It is vital we step up this pressure.
Our sanctions are pushing back the Russian economy by years.
We owe it to the brave Ukrainians to keep up our tough approach to get peace. We owe it to ourselves to stand with them for the cause of freedom and democracy in Europe and across the world.
It is vital we step up this pressure.
On oil and gas, the UK has already committed to end imports of Russian oil by the end of this year.
We must agree a clear timetable with our partners across the G7 to end dependence on Russian oil and gas permanently."
BORNHOLM ELECTRICITY CABLE IS CUT
We must agree a clear timetable with our partners across the G7 to end dependence on Russian oil and gas permanently."
BORNHOLM ELECTRICITY CABLE IS CUT
29 March 2022 - DK: Energinet has repaired cable connection between Bornholm and Sweden
Danish electricity system operator Energinet said it took a month to repair the electricity link between Bornholm and Sweden. The damage was more extensive than originally thought. The cable was probably damaged by a ship’s anchor.
While the submarine cable was broken, Bornholm was supplied with electricity from its own generation sources.
Later investigations showed that the cable was probably pulled through the ship’s anchor. The vessel that was passing over the cable when the failure occurred has been identified and Energinet has initiated insurance proceedings.
Danish electricity system operator Energinet said on April 26, 2022 it took a month to repair the electricity link between Bornholm and Sweden. The cable was located at a depth of about 50 meters Subsequent investigations have shown that the cable was probably torn apart by a ship's anchor. Energinet has also registered interruptions of the submarine cable in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2010. In order to minimize the risk of further anchor damage, Energinet decided in 2018 to flush the cable into the seabed on the part of the section between Bornholm and Sweden where there has previously been ship damage. It is on this stretch, where the cable has washed down to the seabed, that Saturday's short circuit occurred. This is the consequence of the physical damage where the cable's insulation was breached, leading to an electrical short circuit that disrupted the power supply. During the repair process, Energinet found additional old damages on the cable that had not caused short circuits before but were severe enough to warrant replacement. This unexpected discovery extended the repair time as more cable needed to be replaced than initially anticipated. The perpetrator of the damage to the submarine cable near Bornholm in 2022 has been identified as the tanker Samus Swan, operated by Uni-Tankers.
The Bornholm Deep basin area will become a place where drama will unfold in just seven months.
It is the furthest deeper area, the easternmost place where Nordstream pipelines pass arounf the iceland from its East side. (012)
BREAKING THE PEACE
NO NORMALIZATION ALLOWED
On March 19, 2022 Britain's Johnson Warns Against Attempts To 'Renormalize' Relations With Russia. Speaking at a Conservative Party conference on March 19, Johnson called Russia's military action against its neighbor a "turning point for the world." The prime minister's comments came as his foreign secretary, Liz Truss, told The Times newspaper that the Kremlin appeared to be using peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv as a "smokescreen" for more extreme Russian military actions.
The UK was pushing for peace talks "from the position of power". On March 19, 2022 interview with Truss has been published how we need to be tough to secure peace.
Same message about UK´s statements were noticed in Germany. Deutche Welle reported on March 19, 2022 that UK warned against postwar reset with Putin.
On March 21, 2022 Truss commented on meeting between UK and Ukrainian defence ministers: "Good to meet with Olek Reznikov, Ukrainian Defence Minister with Ben Wallace. We continue to support Ukraine - putting tough sanctions on Russia with our G7 allies, supplying defensive weapons and providing humanitarian support."
Kremlin said on March 24, 2022 that UK's Johnson is most active anti-Russian leader
Zelensky ranked on March 28, 2022 which countries are helping Ukraine most. He praises Boris Johnson but rebukes Macron.
Later Johnson visited Kyiv on April 9, 2022, shortly after the Istanbul talks. It's reported that he conveyed a message to continue fighting rather than settling for peace, which some interpret as discouragement from signing any deal with Russia at that moment.
There are assertions from various sources, including Russian and some Ukrainian officials, suggesting that Johnson advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy not to sign a peace deal with Russia. For instance, David Arakhamia, head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, mentioned Johnson's visit and advice. However, Johnson has strongly denied these claims, labeling them as "total nonsense" and "Russian propaganda".
The failure of the peace talks involved multiple factors. The negotiations in Istanbul had not fully resolved critical issues like territorial control, Ukraine's NATO membership, and security guarantees post-conflict. Both sides had significant differences on these points, making a final agreement elusive. The discovery of atrocities in Bucha after Russian troops withdrew from the Kyiv area in early April 2022 significantly impacted the Ukrainian public and political stance, hardening attitudes against negotiating with Russia. Russian side demanded list of dead people and transparent investigation. The list is still not public. There's an acknowledgment that Western nations, including the UK, were skeptical about Russian intentions and advocated for a stronger Ukrainian military position rather than a peace deal that might leave Ukraine vulnerable or Russia unchallenged. Russia's demands included Ukrainian neutrality, which would involve constitutional changes in Ukraine, and assurances that Ukraine would not join NATO, which Ukraine was reluctant to accept without substantial security guarantees from the West.
DECREE 172
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree − Decree 172 − on 31 March 2022 that obligated, starting 1 April, purchasers of Russian pipeline gas from countries on Russia's Unfriendly Countries List to make their payments for Russian gas through a facility run by Russia's Gazprombank, a subsidiary of Gazprom.
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(Part 5 - April - Draft for now)
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