Friday, January 24, 2025

230 - Nordstream affair Crime sequence reconstruction - PART 5

 

CRIME SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION

(APRIL 2022)

PART 5/16

(BASED ON NORDSTREAM FILES MASTER DATA-FILE) 

...previously: PART 4 (MARCH 2022)

SUMMARY

Part 4 of larger series examining the Nord Stream pipeline incidents.


Exploring UK initiatives from April 2022 to reduce reliance on Russian energy, when imposed  sanctions, and possibly pursued a hidden agenda related to post-Brexit energy security. This blog post poses critical questions regarding the UK's potential ulterior motives in undermining Russia's energy sector to safeguard its own post-Brexit energy interests. 


KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Primary Suspect: The investigation identifies elements of the UK government as the primary suspect for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. It suggests that the UK's actions might (also) have been motivated by geopolitical strategies, especially in light of tensions surrounding possible Russian aggression towards Ukraine.

Broader context: Discusses old Mackinder Heartland theory in a new refresh mode modernized into a new thesis which fits events of last 10years: "Mackinder Roadblocks against Euro-Asian integration and development". The investigation sees the Nordstream affair on a broader geopolitics scene where major actors clash in the global arena.

In the lead: In April 2022, the UK government, under the leadership of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, intensified sanctions against Russia while aggressively working to eliminate dependence on Russian energy. UK played crucial role in unifying G7, NATO response to Ukrainian crisis. This position helped to regain loss of political credibility after Brexit debacle. 

Back in the (political importance) seat: The UK found joint enemy and new purpose coordinating anti-Russian policies between US and EU. The UK promotes Global Britain initiatives. 

Measures: The UK's measures included banning Russian energy imports, instituting asset freezes, and bolstering military presence in the Baltic Sea region. 

UK introduces New Energy strategy: Aiming for quicker action than its allies, the UK's new energy strategy sought to end reliance on Russian energy, potentially utilizing its LNG terminals for re-export to Europe. Was this motion part of preparations for physical Nord Stream destruction? 
 
Sugar and whip policy: Liz Truss promoted a "carrot and stick" foreign policy, leveraging economic tools to constrain aggressors and foster alliances. The diplomacy failed or was let to fail.   
 
Russian response: In retaliation to UK sanctions, Russia imposed entry bans on several UK government officials. 
 

Events in chronological order - APRIL:

The February and March were very eventful months in terms of Nord Stream 2 AG geo-politics and strategic energy moves (228229, 050). There were consequences:


Russia's Gazprom announces on April 1, 2022 it is exiting German business amid crisis in energy ties. Russia's Gazprom said on Friday it was quitting its business in Germany at a moment of crisis in the vital energy ties between the two countries in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The gas giant gave no details or explanation of its decision to terminate its participation in Gazprom Germania GMBH and all of its assets, which include subsidiaries in Britain, Switzerland and the Czech Republic.


Did the UK continued in its game?

NOTHING IS OFF THE TABLE
THE GLOBAL BRITAIN IS ATTEMPTING 
ELIMINATING EU´S DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIAN ENERGY
WE'RE CUTTING OFF THE FUNDING FOR PUTIN'S WAR EFFORT
FINDING DIVERSIONARY ROUTES WILL BE VITAL TO STARVING PUTIN OF HIS ENERGY SALES

On April 1, 2022 Truss posts on Twitter that: "We agreed that pressure on Russia must continue and we will work to eliminate dependency on Russian energy." (002, 027, 091)



In The Sun article from April 2, 2022 Liz Truss explains: "We cannot rest till Ukraine prevails and Vladimir Putin fails. AS the horror in Ukraine enters its seventh week, Britain is leading global efforts to ensure Vladimir Putin loses. We have stepped up with our allies and partners to strengthen our Ukrainian friends in their fightback and to hit his regime where it hurts with sanctions. But we are not stopping there. 

This is post-Brexit Global Britain in action — muscular, assertive and decisive at a time of global peril. 
We can be proud to have led the way as the first country in Europe to start sending weapons to the people of Ukraine. We have sanctioned more of Putin’s cronies and Russian businesses than any other country. 
But our job is far from done. If Putin was serious about peace talks, he would have called a halt to the shelling of innocent civilians and pulled his soldiers out of Ukraine for good. We can, and must, do more to make him think again." (002, 003041044)

At The International Trade in Oslo the UK´s Secretary's keynote in her speech at the Nor-Shipping Conference in Oslo from April 4, 2022 states that: "As the UK, USA, EU and Norway stand firm together on coordinating sanctions we reduce Putin’s ability to find diversionary routes. Looking ahead, trade, investment, and the partnerships between these like-minded nations will be vital to starving Putin of his energy sales. The West has acknowledged that they have relied on Russian energy for far too long. So, through new trade and investment relationships around energy we can end this dependence, and starve Putin’s war machine of the funding it needs. First, we must use our relationships with reliable energy partners like Norway to meet our needs, protect our supply chains, and steady the global market." 
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced plans on 4 April 4, 2022 to visit Poland while calling for tougher action to tackle Russian aggression. "Liz Truss will travel to Poland today (Monday 4 April) to see Ukrainian and Polish Foreign Ministers ahead of G7 and NATO talks in Brussels later this week."Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "Putin is yet to show he is serious about diplomacy. A tough approach from the UK and our allies is vital to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in negotiations. Britain has helped lead the way with sanctions to cripple the Putin war machine. We will do more to ramp up the pressure on Russia and we will keep pushing others to do more." (091)

On April 5, 2022 Liz Truss met Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki in Warsaw to discuss UK-Poland cooperation and the situation in Ukraine. "We share a strong security and defence relationship, and are determined to step up our efforts to make sure Putin fails."

Liz Truss promises on April 5, 2022 that: 'We'll not rest until Putin fails and Ukraine prevails'. The Foreign Secretary said the UK is "taking the maximum approach" on sanctions and that "nothing is off the table".

Liz Truss comments on April 5, 2022 that she wants Russian economy pushed ‘back to Soviet era’, as 60% of Putin war chest is frozen. She called on the UK’s European allies to step up sanctions and hasten the end of dependence on Moscow’s fossil fuels. Ms Truss said she wanted Britain’s partners to go further in sanctions by “cracking down on more Russian banks” and agreeing “a clear timetable to eliminate our imports of Russian oil, coal and gas”. (003)

Liz Truss spoke on April 5, 2022 to Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio about tackling the income that is funding Putin’s regime. She highlights that: "We need to step up our coordinated sanctions to end Russia’s war in Ukraine."


Independent reports on April 6, 2022 in article with headline "The age of engagement with Russia is over" that the Foreign Secretary is meeting Nato counterparts in Brussels on Wednesday evening. That Liz Truss is set to tell her foreign counterparts that “The age of engagement with Russia is over” and to  declare that an agreement between Nato and Moscow which said the two sides “do not consider each other as adversaries” is dead.

Liz Truss has called on April 6, 2022  for a return to Cold War era diplomacy, declaring “The age of engagement with Russia is over” and that an agreement in which Nato and Moscow “do not consider each other as adversaries” is dead.

In Authored article in the Telegraph from 6 April 2022 Liz Truss says that to secure a safer, more peaceful world, we need to double down in supporting Ukraine so that it prevails. "The West must show Putin its collective strength".

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced on April 6, 2022 new wave of Russian sanctions. As part of the measures, Truss confirms an outright ban on all new outward investment to Russia, and the end of UK dependency on Russian oil and coal by the end of the year.

The Foreign Secretary has announced on April 6, 2022 a significant ratcheting up of UK sanctions on Russia. UK imposes sweeping new sanctions to starve Putin's war machine.
"...Our latest wave of measures will bring an end to the UK’s imports of Russian energy and sanction yet more individuals and businesses, decimating Putin’s war machine..."
"...by the end of 2022, the UK will end all dependency on Russian coal and oil, and end imports of gas as soon as possible thereafter. From next week, the export of key oil refining equipment and catalysts will also be banned, degrading Russia’s ability to produce and export oil – targeting not only the industry’s finances but its capabilities as a whole..."


Prime Minister Boris Johnson's article on Ukraine from April 6, 2022 mentions: "But we must go further to cripple Putin’s war machine through sanctions. I am working with our G7 partners to crack down on more Russian banks and agree a clear timetable to eliminate our imports of Russian oil, gas and coal. I am also encouraging them to join the UK in banning Russian ships from our ports and putting Russian gold beyond Putin’s reach..." and "Third, we must maximise the economic pressure on Putin’s regime. We must go further on economic sanctions, expelling every Russian bank from SWIFT. We must go after the oligarchs, as the UK is doing – sanctioning over 300 elites and entities including Putin himself and giving our law enforcement agencies unprecedented powers to peel back the façade of dirty Russian money in London. But these measures will be insufficient unless Europe begins to wean itself off the Russian oil and gas that bankrolls Putin’s war machine..." (105)

Liz Truss on her twitter account on 6 April 2022"We're going further to cripple Putin’s war machine. Today I have announced our toughest sanctions yet - targeting Russia's energy industry, as well as hitting more banks, businesses and oligarchs who are financing Russia's abhorrent crimes in Ukraine."

On Twitter Liz Truss on 7 April 2022 posts: "Russia has brought barbarity and devastation to Ukraine. I told House of Commons that the UK must do everything we can to ensure Putin loses."




UK Foreign Secretary declares on 7 April 2022 that 'The age of engagement with Russia is over,' says the West should focus on deterrence"

Is it possible that there was a hidden agenda of fixing UK´s own energy insecurity in post Brexit world? (027)


NATO AND G7 ARE (almost) UNITED

G7 foreign ministers and the High Representative of the European Union on 7 April 2022 issued a joint statement on Russia and Ukraine following a meeting at NATO HQs.

Concerning Russian energy the Part 9 states: "In light of Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, carried out with Belarus’ complicity, we have already adopted unprecedented and coordinated economic and financial sanctions against Russia that impose a significant cost on its economy. We stress the necessity of further increasing the economic pressure inflicted on Russia and the Lukashenka regime in Belarus. Together with international partners, the G7 will sustain and increase pressure on Russia by imposing coordinated additional restrictive measures to effectively thwart Russian abilities to continue the aggression against Ukraine. We will work together to stop any attempts to circumvent sanctions or to aid Russia by other means. We are taking further steps to expedite plans to reduce our reliance on Russian energy, and will work together to this end."

G-7 resists going after $1bn-a-day Russian energy revenue, news from April 8, 2022. Western allies and Japan agreed to amplify the economic sanctions against Moscow on Thursday following alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine, but the added measures are unlikely to cut Russia's oil and gas revenue totaling at least $1.1 billion a day. Foreign ministers from NATO and Group of Seven nations met here, with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kulebadid making a case for more action against Moscow.

 Before the G-7 gathering, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that together with allies "we are keeping the pressure up with more sanctions, weapons and ending imports of Russian energy."

An embargo on energy imports from Russia, a step urged by some observers, "would also do significant damage to the side imposing the sanctions, since this is expected to last for some time," said Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, a chief economist at the Tokyo-based Sojitz Research Institute. "There's no economic measure that would make it impossible for Russia to keep carrying on the war," he said.


UK NEW ENERGY STRATEGY (163)

Jacob Rees-Mogg who becomes later under Truss Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy appeals on April 4, 2022 that the: "UK should drill ‘every last drop’ of North Sea oil and gas"

Sky News reports on April 6, 2022 that the government has commissioned a survey into fracking two days before announcing a new energy strategy focused on using UK-produced supplies after the invasion of Ukraine. Ministers order geological survey two days before unveiling new energy strategy.

UK updates its energy security strategy on 7 April 2022. It describes: "It is crucial we work with international partners to maintain stable energy markets and prices. This will help protect UK consumers and reduce the use of fossil fuels globally. Similar to our domestic strategy, we have a dual approach to reduce global reliance on Russian fossil fuels whilst pivoting towards clean, affordable energy. To reduce global reliance on Russian fossil fuels, the UK is: committing to phase out the use of Russian oil and coal by the end of 2022, and end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas as soon as possible thereafter.

The US has made similar commitments building international support to reduce Russian energy revenues. Internationally coordinated action, for example, through the G7 and International Energy Agency is key to support stable markets and to help secure the critical minerals we all need to successfully move to clean energy providing a key EU entry point for non-Russian supplies of gas.

We are examining our infrastructure to ensure gas flows efficiently between the UK, Europe and the global market through our interconnectors and LNG terminals and promote gas infrastructure to be hydrogen-ready

Oil and gas

Low carbon UK gas, and zero Russian imports.

Phase out Russian oil and coal by end 2022
and Russian LNG gas imports as soon as possible thereafter

International delivery - Reducing global reliance on Russian fossil fuels




Supporting allies

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss at Bloomberg Originals on April 7, 2022 "The U.K. will ban all imports of Russian energy over Putin's invasion of Ukraine"

Boris Johnson on April 7, 2022: "We cannot allow our country to be dependent on Russian oil & gas. An important part of the British Energy Security Strategy is our plan to deliver eight new nuclear reactors, the equivalent of one a year, powering millions of homes with clean, safe, and reliable nuclear energy."

The new UK Energy Strategy has interesting highlights. namely ending own dependance earlier and faster than any other ally and as such being shielded to any possible ruptures in future. Another noteworthy aspect is the speed in which it aims to end all imports at the end of the year 2022. This means letting old contracts to run till the end of the year. It is a push for own companies not to enter into new contracts with Russian counterparts or other intermediators who resell their energy starting from January 2023. 

Reducing own reliance on hydrocarbons means in other words also investing in otherwise more expensive alternative energy which would be otherwise non-competitive. But what profit for the US is to support other countries in Green initiatives when UK is not producer of solar and wind technology?

The UK has been after Brexit kicked out of the EU balancing mechanism which means it could not properly develop its wind, solar energy as any excess would not be automatically sent over to continental Europe. This big investment had to have some big foresight that cheap and traditionally reliable Russian energy will not come under any circumstances return in foreseeable future. (041)

The UK also mentions availability of its unused idling volume of own LNG terminals for re-exporting LNG into continental Europe. Providing Key Entry Point on non-Russian supplies of gas for Europe looks like an interesting potential motive. Germany and other states have not invested enough into LNG terminals as they had cheaper and faster piped gas from Russia. Stating it publicly in advance would not change anything would it appear that the UK was actively preparing for the Nordstream affair. It would be also interesting to track purchases of LNG leading toward Europe before and after Norddtream was blown up. The UK became net energy exporter just 3 days after Nodstream pipelines were blown up as this news explains (Bloomberg Sept 29, 2022).

This all, together with foreign policy goals, their anti Russian energy rhetorics, points to coordinated actions to take on Russian gas exports. But after Brexit all legal actions were no more available. The only way how to stop Nord stream pipelines was a physical liquidation after convincing allies it was the right thing to do. (041106)



 
LETS JUST FIGHT 

The Prime Minister on April 8, 2022 welcomed German @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz to Downing Street to discuss how we can accelerate support for Ukraine, toughen sanctions and help European countries wean themselves off Russian energy.




Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave a statement at a joint press conference with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz on April 8, 2022. The UK and the EU have announced new sanctions this week, and just today we in the UK have imposed new asset freezes and travel bans. Johnson explains that: "We will also agree on the importance of weaning ourselves off dependence on Russian gas and oil, and ensuring that our energy security cannot be threatened by a rogue state. This is not easy for any of us, and I applaud the seismic decisions taken by Olaf’s government to move Germany away from Russian hydrocarbons." 
(032, 105)

British PM makes on April 9, 2022 surprise visit to Kyiv, meets Zelenskyy. British Prime Minister’s visit follows UK pledge of more sophisticated military equipment to fight Russia. The Ukraine embassy in the UK tweeted a picture of the two leaders meeting with a one-word caption: “Surprise”.

Lead Ukrainian negotiator in Istanbul David Arakhamia reports later that on April 9, 2022  Boris Johnson sabotaging the Istanbul peace process by saying on 9 April 2022 to Zelensky: "Let's just fight". 


UK PROMOTES ALTERNATIVES TO RUSSIAN ENERGY

On 11 April 2022 UK governmental Research briefing named "Alternatives to Russian oil: Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and Venezuela?" studies a topic: "How important is Russian supply, and which countries could replace it? It elaborates on the question explaining that: "Russia is the second largest producer of oil in the world, behind the US. Russian imports account for 8% of total UK oil demand. Two countries—the UAE and Saudi Arabia—are arguably best able to ramp up spare production capacity quickly. This is where recent UK diplomacy has focused."

The report mentions UK´s representatives visits UAE and Saudi Arabia in March 2022 when on 16 March 2022, the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, visited both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to discuss energy security, including potential measures to diversify the UK’s energy supply. He also raised human rights concerns with Saudi Arabia. The visit did not result in pledges from the two countries to increase their production. However, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia committed to improving stability in the global energy markets and to advance green technology and trade with the UK.

Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss announced on April 11, 2022 the government will freeze assets connected with the key Russian oligarchs, estimated to total up to £10 billion, the largest asset freeze action in UK history. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "We are tightening the ratchet on Putin’s war machine and targeting the circle of people closest to the Kremlin. We will keep going with sanctions until Putin fails in Ukraine. Nothing and no one is off the table. Sanctions imposed by the UK and its international partners are having deep and damaging consequences for Putin’s ability to wage war. Analysis shows Russia is heading for the deepest recession since the collapse of the Soviet Union with £275 billion – 60% of Russian foreign currency reserves – currently frozen."

In two days on April 13, 2022 Foreign Secretary announces 178 new sanctions, coordinated with the EU, targeting those who prop up Russian-backed illegal breakaway regions of Ukraine. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "In the wake of horrific rocket attacks on civilians in Eastern Ukraine, we are today sanctioning those who prop up the illegal breakaway regions and are complicit in atrocities against the Ukrainian people. We will continue to target all those who aid and abet Putin’s war. From tomorrow, we are banning the import of Russian iron and steel, as well as the export of quantum technologies and advanced materials that Putin sorely needs. We will not rest in our mission to stop Putin’s war machine in its tracks."

Norwegian Bjørn Arild Gram was appointed Minister of Defence on April 14, 2022.

Later in September 2022 he will become a key persona of the Nordstream affair (069, 120126, 184).
basically the data point to his possible role of being a whistle-blower who with his Prime minister bring top level critical intel to the USA on 19th of September, a week before the attacks happen. The story from September is described in many parts in details blog posts. The visit unleashes unbelievable drama in the Baltic sea and beyond (013).

On April 14, 2022 Liz Truss announces New UK sanctions against Eugene Tenenbaum & David Davidovich, two key oligarchs and long-standing associates of Roman Abramovich. "Alongside #G7 and our partners, we will keep going with sanctions until Putin fails in Ukraine. Nothing and no one is off the table"


UK AND JOINT EXPEDITIONARY FORCE (JEF)

The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a UK-led multinational military partnership designed for rapid response and expeditionary operations. It involves 10 Northern European countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The JEF can act independently, alongside NATO, under the threshold of NATO, or in other international frameworks like UN peacekeeping operations. Its primary focus is on security in the Northern European region, including the High North, North Atlantic, and the Baltic region, but it also has the capability to conduct operations further afield. 

15 April 2022 - UK/JEF: The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

Admiral Sir Antony David Radakin, KCB, ADC, Chief of the Defence Staff
JEF recognises that the character of warfare has evolved, and the distinction between peace and war is not as clear as it once was. (081)

The grey area this creates has allowed our adversaries to develop new ways of threatening us, and we recognise the need to counter this by protecting, engaging and constraining the threat.

We therefore see advantage in the JEF being able to take collective action below the traditional threshold of conflict, if necessary, before NATO declares Article V, in a complementary capacity to NATO.

“London’s unbridled information and political campaign aimed at isolating Russia internationally, creating conditions for containing our country and strangling the domestic economy” were responsible for its decision, the ministry said.

In a hypothetical scenario of UK using a hybrid attack against Russian export facility in neutral waters like for example Nordstream in Baltic sea where the actor is not attributed, it could leverage the Rapid Deployment and Response. JEF offers a platform for enhanced military cooperation and strategic positioning, leveraging it for a false flag operation in a gray zone scenario would be fraught with complexity, requiring careful consideration of the geopolitical, legal, and operational risks involved. 

This investigation explored in depth the role of JEF on the background of Nordstream affair (043, 197).
The JEF does not seemed to be involved, there was no data which would point to it. JEF channels may have been used as the perpetrator, the rogue state was with high probability NATO member. This investigation concluded that it was the UK, but let´s not be impatient. Step by step. Day by day.


RUSSIAN RESPONSE

On April 16, 2022 Russia bans Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace from entering country. Moscow announces move that will also bar 10 other UK government members and politicians: Dominic Raab, Grant Shapps, Priti Patel, Rishi Sunak, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadine Dorries, James Heappey, Nicola Sturgeon, Suella Braverman and Theresa May have also been banned.

Boris Johnson Banned From Entering Russia on April 16, 2022  After Receiving Major Sanctions. Prime Minister Boris Johnson can no longer enter Russia after a series of sanctions levelled at UK government officials. The Kremlin has sanctioned the prime minister, along with foreign secretary Liz Truss and defence secretary Ben Wallace, as Britain has provided aid and supplies to Ukraine. Other senior ministers also on the list are chancellor Rishi Sunak, deputy prime minister Dominic Raab and home secretary Priti Patel. They are joined by Nadine Dorries, Kwasi Kwarteng, James Heappey, Suella Braverman, Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon and former prime minister Theresa May.

The Russian government released a statement which read: "In connection with the unprecedented hostile actions of the British government, expressed, in particular, in the imposition of sanctions against top officials of the Russian Federation, a decision was made to include key members of the British government and a number of political figures in the Russian 'stop list'." (105174)


GERMANY DOES NOT AGREE ENDING RUSSIAN IMPORTS

Germany on April 20, 2022 rules out immediate end to Russian oil imports. Ms Baerbock said Germany would halve Russian oil imports by the summer and eliminate them altogether by the end of the year, to be followed quickly by a reduction in Russian gas imports.

Ukraine lobbies on April 21, 2022 for cuts in Russian Nord Stream 1 gas shipments. (104)

Liz Truss on her Twitter account on April 24, 2022 "We are now entering the 3rd month of Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine. Russia has perpetrated appalling atrocities including attacks on innocent civilians and children in Odessa and the siege of Mariupol. We will not rest until Putin fails and Ukraine prevails."

Germany's Economy Ministry clarified on April 29, 2022 that European energy companies won't be in breach sanctions if they comply with decree 172 saying in an emailed statement that "According to these guidelines, account K, to which payment is made in euros/dollars, is in line with the sanctions if companies declare that contracts have been fulfilled with payment in euros or dollars." German economy ministry says that using this "Gazprombank account not necessarily breach of sanctions". (015, 174)



LIZ TRUSS IS READY TO TRY AND BEAT GLOBAL AGGRESSORS AT THEIR OWN GAME

In Huffington post article from April 24, 2022 Ben Wallace says that "Britain Must Help Remove 'Cancerous Growth' Russia From Ukraine" 

A courageous statement or a populist bragging? On 26 April 2022 a news was published that: "Liz Truss is ready to try and beat global aggressors at their own game" (106)

"The Foreign Secretary believes there needs to be a much greater economic underpinning to foreign policy. When Liz Truss addresses diplomats this evening with the annual Mansion House speech, it will be the first time since her appointment as Foreign Secretary that she has set out her plan to reconfigure the UK’s foreign policy.

Since Truss’s promotion to the great office of state in the autumn reshuffle, she has seen a wider geopolitical shift than many foreign secretaries have encountered in the bulk of their tenure.

Berlin has cancelled the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and increased its defence spending – rewriting 30 years of German foreign policy which has been underpinned by a belief in change through trade. (032104)

On the UK side, much of what has happened confirmed the Government assessment on the threats the West faces. The 2021 integrated review (into foreign, security and defence policy) correctly identified Russia as the greatest threat – while naming China as “a systemic challenge”.

Yet with events moving as quickly as they are, the view in the Foreign Office is that the UK must now go further still. Key to this is to fix what has long been a weak flank of UK foreign policy: moving to strengthen economic ties – both with long-standing allies and those countries the UK wishes to bring into its orbit.

While the West has rallied in the wake of war in Ukraine, the fact that Russia invaded in the first place was a failure of deterrence. The view of the Foreign Secretary is that in order to avoid repeating the same mistakes, a new approach is required – one in which there needs to be a much greater economic underpinning to foreign policy.

Part of the reason Russian strength got to the point it did was that the world let its guard down – both in terms of defence spending and economic ties. In that period, other governments viewed as aggressors have expanded their reach – just look at how the Chinese government has expanded its influence in the Indo-Pacific through economic ties.

Now the UK wants to beat these aggressors at their own game. It’s not just about boosting defence spending – something Truss has previously suggested would be necessary – though the Chancellor Rishi Sunak may want to look away when she gets up to speak on Wednesday.

Instead, it’s engaging with other countries. “Liz wants the free world to use economics as a hard-edged tool of security and foreign policy because we’ve neglected it since the Cold War and aggressors have been bolder,” says an ally of the Foreign Secretary. “She wants to use economics to constrain rivals and also build closer trade and investment links with a wider group of countries.”

Another supporter of Truss puts it this way: “We need an economic Nato.” And "This shift can also be summarised as a “carrot and stick” approach. The stick can be seen in the power of the sanctions levied against Russia by the G7 and its allies. The economic damage they are inflicting is leading to pain for Putin and his people. They could go further still – with a ban on imports of oil and gas; hydrocarbons make up a third of the Russian economy.

As for the carrot, during the Cold War the US did two things – establish Nato and then a general agreement on tariffs and trade. This time around a wider reach would be required – taking into account those countries in the Indo-Pacific who see what’s happening in Ukraine and worry for their own security."


Liz Truss on her Twitter account on April 26, 2022 "Russia has brought barbarity and devastation to Ukraine. I told @HouseofCommons that the UK must do everything we can to ensure Putin loses."



Truss on 27 April 2022  in"The return of geopolitics: Foreign Secretary's Mansion House speech at the Lord Mayor's 2022 Easter Banquet"

"We now need a new approach, one that melds hard security and economic security, one that builds stronger global alliances and where free nations are more assertive and self-confident, one that recognises geopolitics is back.

Britain has always stood up to bullies. We have always been risk takers. So we are prepared be bold, using our strength in security and diplomacy, our economic heft, and our will and agility to lead the way...

Our sanctions have already seen Russia facing its first external debt default for a century. We need to go further. There must be nowhere for Putin to fund this appalling war. That means cutting off oil and gas imports once and for all.

We’re cutting off the funding for Putin’s war effort. We are also cutting investment ties with Russia – banning all new outward investment and ending the investor visa."


Justin Addison (UK delegation to the OSCE) on April 27, 2027 highlights the potentially disastrous environmental impacts of President Putin’s unprovoked and illegal war in Ukraine. "President Putin has chosen this war, and so is choosing the international isolation that comes with it. Many countries are limiting their consumption of Russian energy, with the UK planning to phase out imports of Russian oil by the end of this year. Reducing our collective dependence on Putin’s oil and gas has a practical as well as moral imperative – we must accelerate the drive for renewables, go twice as fast as we can on wind, and make better use of hydrocarbons.

As the world collectively shows its disgust at President Putin’s illegal war of aggression, and stops buying his oil and gas, the Russian state will ultimately be forced to return to one of its most successful international exports – human misery."


Gazprom has fully suspended gas supplies on April 27, 2022 to the Bulgarian company Bulgargaz and the Polish PGNiG due to their failure to pay in rubles in due time, the Russian holding said in a statement

Ben Wallace backs Liz Truss on April 28, 2022 and says "Russia should be pushed out of 'the whole of Ukraine' - including Crimea."

At the meeting in Downing Street on April 28, 2022 hetween Prime minister and Swiss delegation his speaker comments on Prime Minister Boris Johnson: "The PM also thanked President Cassis for his country’s support on sanctions against Putin’s regime, and discussed how the UK and Switzerland could continue to apply financial pressure on the Russian government." (091)

Note that both Nord Stream AG and Nord Stream 2 AG are incorporated in Switzerland due to its pro business and legal environment. Many international corporations incorporate their businesses there. Note also that Switzerland surprisingly has not been part of investigation, has not run its own investigation and its representatives avoided several UN meetings about Nordstream affair. Could the case, if exposed, that the Switzerland does not allow good legal protection to its companies, somehow risk its business neutrality or appeal? (032, 051054, 103132, 154)

On her Twitter account Liz Truss posts on 28 April 2022 "In the face of rising aggression we have the power to act, and we need to act now."

We must be assertive. Aggressors are looking at what has happened in Ukraine. We need to make sure that they get the right message. My Mansion House speech Mansion House speechForeign Secretary's Mansion House speech at the Lord Mayor's 2022 Easter Banquet from 29 April 2022 named as "The return of geopolitics" . Liz Truss said that geopolitics is back, and argued for a reboot in the free world’s approach to tackling global aggressors in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.

She reminds that: "Britain has always stood up to bullies. We have always been risk takers. So we are prepared be bold, using our strength in security and diplomacy, our economic heft, and our will and agility to lead the way. We have raised tariffs on Russian goods. We’ve cut them off from WTO terms. We’ve banned their ships from our ports, we’ve banned their planes from our airports. We have sanctioned more individuals and organisations than any other nation, hitting Russia’s banks, oligarchs, defence companies, Central Bank reserves, and oil and gas supplies. We’re cutting off the funding for Putin’s war effort. We are also cutting investment ties with Russia – banning all new outward investment and ending the investor visa. Our sanctions have already seen Russia facing its first external debt default for a century. We need to go further. There must be nowhere for Putin to fund this appalling war. That means cutting off oil and gas imports once and for all."


BUT WHAT IF CARROT AND STICK FAIL? WHAT THEN?
UK ARMY AND NAVY RELATED

UK Royal Navy update from April 11 2022  HMS Richmond heads to the Baltic Sea. Worked with Poseidon P8A submarine hunting aircraft from the Royal Navy Air Force, Astute class submarine operating in the area - North Sea and/or Baltic Sea.



April - October 2022 - UK Royal Navy update: (publication access to those months was paused without explanation, 2022, 2023. Was there some important information which has been removed? Data about movements of assets which could help to derive some data?)

Local newspapers Dorset Live publishes article on April 16, 2022 about Poole's secretive Special Boat Service: A history of hijackings, raids and 007

"We need a new approach based on military strength, economic security and deeper alliances" Calla Liz Truss for an action on April 28, 2022. "We now need a new approach, one that melds hard security and economic security, one that builds stronger global alliances and where free nations are more assertive and self-confident, one that recognises geopolitics is back. Britain has always stood up to bullies. We have always been risk takers. So we are prepared be bold, using our strength in security and diplomacy, our economic heft, and our will and agility to lead the way."

First British Nuclear Submarine Docked in Tromsø on April 29, 2022For the past month, the HMS Ambush has largely operated in Norwegian waters, the British Navy writes. During Cold Response 2022, the HMS Ambush and five other British marine vessels practiced operating in cold, Arctic waters in Northern Norway, according to the British MoD.

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace (Conservatives) visited Bardufoss, Norway during the exercise and there presented a new British defense strategy for the Arctic region.
After the exercise, the HMS Ambush appears to have continued its winter training in the North, just like forces from the US Marine Corps.

The American amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge was docked at Grøtsund during Easter. This is allegedly the largest warship ever to have docked in Tromsø.

Diving & Threat Exploitation Group, @RN_DTXG: Clyde based Charlie Sqn are on April 29, 2022 also in Tromso, Norway, providing diving support to AMBU. (012)

Lieutenant General Sir James Hockenhull was appointed on April 29, 2022 as new Commander United Kingdom Strategic Command. (096113)

Liz Truss on her Twitter account on 29 April 2022 mentions: "Spoke to Dmytro Kuleba from The Hague today. We discussed: "UK specialist team that will assist Ukraine to gather evidence for prosecuting Russian war crimes. Further arms supplies to help Ukraine defend itself. Importance of total phaseout of Russian oil and gas" (107)

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RELATED POSTS:

002 - UK government does not like Nordstream

003 - Historical ROOTS of Nordstream affair

010 - Mackinder Roadblocks against Euro-Asian development & integration

012 - Whose submarine visited Bornholm Deep before the Nordstream was blown up?

027 - Mission accomplished - UK - from Energy Importer to Energy Exporter





















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NEXT

(Part 6 - May - Draft for now)

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