CRIME SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION
FOREWORD:
The destruction of Nordstream pipelines redirected energy flows in Europe and had significant geo-political implications.
The road to Nordstream crisis had very deep and has old roots. It was not a simple sabotage done by amateur group of drunken sailors (216). This was confirmed by head of Swedish investigation Mats Ljungqvist in several public statements in 2023 when he confirmed state involvement and excluded pro-Ukrainian amateur groups and chance some private company was behind was very low (214), he also stated that the rogue state had significant resources and knowledge plus he stated that Russia and USA were both excluded in several rounds (058). Ukraine was asking G-7 allies, IMF and World Bank to postpone loan payments in the mid September 2022 (085). To bite creditors hand by blowing up their main energy artery, despite deliveries being paused, is not convenient. There was no strategic gain for Ukraine and the attack on the pipeline could only alleviate negotiations with G7 or even cancelling those fresh deals and possibility of new loans.
Prior to Swedish statements my own investigation, after long and thorough detailed research (001), concluded in April 2023 that elements in UK´s government were responsible for the Nordstream affair (045). The original pool of suspects contained 17 states (052). All known alternative takes and claims were carefully studied (045), null hypothesis & systematic elimination of possibilities (001) was done, motives including wider geo-political ones studied as well (010), etc. Note that not all material is uploaded to the blog which serves to publish progress and to share data with public. One page summary (061). Some possible historical character precedent evidence examined (018). The first simple crime sequence reconstruction was done in September 2023 after about half year of investigation (064). This first iteration was confirmed by all available data, cross-referenced and the investigation continued for next 1.5 years (013).
The gradual progress was documented online in an open format. The investigation tried to follow best investigative processes used in normal criminal investigations, preliminary results were published in May 2022 (049). After conclusion cross-verifications against all available data was thorough-fully and transparently executed. There are no internal nor external discrepancies.
The hypothesis so far holds, is able to explain all associated details, and has not been refuted.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
The UK among the strongest opponent of the project: The UK had been vocal in its opposition to Nord Stream 2. Positioning itself as a critic of the project, the UK government, particularly through statements from Prime minister Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, and other official figures of UK government argued that the pipeline would enhance Russia's leverage over Europe, potentially at the cost of Ukrainian sovereignty and European energy security.
Worsening of Ukraine crisis Late 2021 - Early 2022: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, with significant military build-up by Russia near the Ukrainian border. This situation was closely monitored by Western nations, including the UK, which saw it as an opportunity to highlight the risks of energy dependency on Russia.
DATA:
THE NORDSTREAM AFFAIR IN DATA POINTS:
There exists lots of data for interested readers to examine many old pre 2022 official documents and statements (003). Let´s just look at a few remarkable which gradually shaped narrative toward the affair:
A long time ago relations between the UK and Russia were rather positive and there was even a possibility for cooperation on energy issues. Projections shown that the UK´s demand can not be met from internal sources and so Russia explored UK as a possible destination market for its vast energy, one example could be news from April, 8 2013: "Gazprom, Gasunie to explore Nord Stream expansion to Britain. Russia's Gazprom GAZP.MM and Dutch Gasunie GSUNI.UL signed a letter of intent on Monday to explore the potential expansion of the Nord Stream pipeline to Britain, one of several deals signed during President Vladimir Putin's visit to the Netherlands." (027).On 17 July 2018 - Boris Johnson wrote that he feels that Nord Stream 2 is divisive and could leave the EU’s supply reliant on “a malign Russian state”. He acknowledged that British interests are at stake and admitted that that "My primary concern is not the potential commercial losses for those private companies, or even the success—or lack of success—of former German Chancellors in their deal making, but the strategic interests of the United Kingdom and our friends and allies." He recognized the price for Gazprom, several years of their investment, their future income depends on it. “Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream are all deeply value-destructive projects that will eat up almost half of Gazprom’s investments over the next five years.” (003)
Boris Johnson also stated that "...the UK’s apparent unwillingness to come to a firm and fixed view on Nord Stream 2, has to end."
On 17th July 2018 In a debate between John Whittingdale and James Heappey about Nord Stream 2 the loss of income for Ukraine is quantified. "As my hon. Friend the Member for The Wrekin pointed out, Nord Stream 2 is essentially a political tool. The Polish Prime Minister has described it as a new hybrid weapon. If it replaces the Ukrainian gas pipeline—I think all of us believe that is the long-term objective—the consequence will be for Ukraine to lose up to 4% of its GDP, with an effect on government spending of a cut of about $2.3 billion." It is the amount the Ukraine gets for transport fees through its ageing pipeline system.
The issue of Ukrainian neglected pipeline system was known. Gazprom has specifically chosen to invest in the Nord Stream 1 with the route to go through the Baltic sea to avoid 3rd party interference and to save money on paying transport fees for transit countries and to deliver to its largest customer Germany directly.
In 2018 - The Atlantic Council published article "Nord Stream 2: Understanding the Potential Consequences" which mentioned that "The Damage That Will Flow From Nord Stream 2 - Creating a Straits of Hormuz Risk for Europe". and that "...once Nord Stream 2 becomes operational, these interconnectors will be utilized by Gazprom on such a scale that it will be much more difficult for competing gas supplies to reach CEE customers..."
While the UK was still a member of the EU it was able to shape or influence joint policies directly, but after leaving the UK lost this political power. The UK was strong proponent of the several legal hurdles like "unbundling rules" to separate pipeline operator and gas exporters. Already in 2020, when the UK while still in EU, it was pressuring Germany to decouple from Russian energy.
Shortly after that Boris Johnson's on 14 Dec 2020 reveals New energy security strategy which aims to reduce the UK's dependence on imported fossil fuels and transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.
Following Joe Biden's inauguration in January 2021, the White House reiterated the U.S.'s long-standing opposition to Nord Stream, stating that Biden "continues to believe that Nord Stream 2 is a bad deal for Europe" and that his administration "will be reviewing" new sanctions. A February report by NBC News, citing congressional aides, noted that these sanctions had "strong bipartisan support" in Congress.
There were many debates in the UK Parliament and elsewhere about the Nordstream in relation to UK´s own energy insecurity and loss of competitiveness vis-a-vis Germany and the rest of the EU. One fine example is a debate from 2021. Volume 690: debated on Wednesday 10 March 2021 (079). The 2021 Integrated Review (into foreign, security and defence policy) which identified Russia as the “greatest threat”– while naming China as “a systemic challenge”. (003) As for USA their main threat is a peer competitor China and economically the EU. At this point the USA is not considering Russia their primary issue like the UK does.
In 2021 Boris Johnson realized the gravity and criticality of the situation with UK energy security, balance of payments, trade, which was hit hard after Brexit. His team updated energy security strategy which aimed to reduce the UK's dependence on imported fossil fuels, he also previously proclaimed he wants to make from the UK a 'Saudi Arabia of wind power'. A vision which can not happen if this form of alternative energy is not competitive against low energy prices, if UK wind farms will not have demand, customers, who until now prefer long term piped gas deals from reliable Russian companies.
The UK´s energy insecurity issue is that neither solar nor wind energy sources are competitive to Russian piped gas while Britain´s own low cost oil and gas fields in North sea are being depleted with no new discoveries to replace them. Exploring at low prices in deep sea is uneconomic.
Energy trading through electricity interconnectors between the EU and Great Britain was after Brexit no longer managed through existing single market tools, such as "EU market coupling" which complicated building of new wind fields. So in other words, the end of energy market coupling has had significant implications for the UK's energy market, the excess energy when wind delivers strong would not be automatically sold to EU markets. It was a bottleneck for Johnson´s vision. (002) and (041).
On May 19, 2021, President Biden waived sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its CEO Matthias Warnig, a decision met with disapproval from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers. Republican Senator Jim Risch labeled it "a gift to Putin and will only weaken the United States." Russian and German officials expressed approval of the sanctions waiver, but Yuriy Vitrenko from Naftogaz criticized the decision, advocating for sanctions to halt the pipeline.At a White House press briefing on May 25, 2021, President Biden explained his decision to waive the sanctions, noting that the pipeline was nearly complete and that imposing sanctions could damage relations with Europe.
On 4 June 2021, Vladimir Putin announced that the pipe-laying for first line of the Nord Stream 2 had been fully completed. On 10 June, the sections of the pipeline were connected. The completion of the second line's laying occurred in September 2021.
In July 2021, the US advised Ukraine against criticizing an upcoming agreement with Germany regarding the pipeline.On July 20, Joe Biden and Angela Merkel finalized an agreement where the US could impose sanctions should Russia utilize Nord Stream as a "political weapon". This deal was designed to ensure that Poland and Ukraine do not lose access to Russian gas supplies. Ukraine was promised a $50 million loan for green technology development until 2024, while Germany committed to establishing a billion-dollar fund to support Ukraine's shift to green energy, compensating for the anticipated loss of gas transit revenue. The transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukraine would be extended to 2034, contingent on Russian government approval.
The July 2021 article in Guardian cited that "Britain plans to launch covert special forces operations against Russia and China" The RT reported that Royal Marines Brigadier Mark Totten revealed to the Times the UK Special Forces are about to concentrate on some new covert counter-state tasks with a focus on Russia and China. Totten said: "The British Royal Marines are to take over some of the “traditional” roles of the nation’s special forces units – the Special Air Service (SAS) and Special Boat Service (SBS) – as they are preparing for some new “higher risk” counter-state tasks."
Guardian reported that the most secretive parts of the British military are likely to get a new focus and a new remit that would involve countering Russia and other state actors through secret missions. Totten’s comments were a rare instance of a British military official openly admitting that London plans to deploy the UK Special Forces on covert missions specifically targeting Russia and China. (081)
UK Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Kwasi Kwarteng told a parliamentary committee September 22, 2021 that "We are not exposed to Russian supply as many of our EU counterparts are" (027). It was clear that any disruption of Russian export would not affect the UK´s energy security.
On October 21, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that gas deliveries through the pipeline would commence the day following Germany's approval.On November, 4 2021 in another article named: "We must stand together for freedom and democracy" Liz Truss explains: "I want our friends across Europe to join us. That means standing together for example in opposing the construction of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline."
On November, 5 2021 - Article with headline "Stop guzzling Russian gas, Boris Johnson tells Europe" mentions that addressing the governments of Germany, Austria, Italy, France, and other European countries that import large amounts of Russian gas, Mr Johnson said: "We hope that our friends may recognise that a choice is shortly coming between mainlining ever more Russian hydrocarbons in giant new pipelines and sticking up for Ukraine and championing the cause of peace and stability, let me put it that way."
On 16 Nov 2021 - Boris Johnson warned EU to choose between Ukraine and Nord Stream 2. Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, Truss urged “Friends across Europe” to stand together in opposing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Same message was delivered in an interview for another newspapers 16 Nov 2021 "EU ultimatum! Boris warns bloc must chose Russian gas pipeline or 'stick up for Ukraine'" (042). In the USA only certain individuals, a faction, was against Nordstream but in the UK it was the key state representatives most opposing it voicing their policy.
On Nov, 18 2021 in another article named: "Nord Stream 2: Will you go to the Gazprom with me?" the same message was repeated, in it British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that “a choice is shortly coming for Europe". (031)
In late November 2021, Germany mandated that certain assets of Nord Stream AG, registered in Switzerland, including the pipeline, be transferred to a business entity registered in Germany. Gazprom filed accordingly registrations.
Later in the same month on 30 Nov 2021 - Liz Truss urged Nato allies to block Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, stating that "It remains to be seen how far the UK can push its opposition to Nord Stream 2". (002)
In December, 2021 the US and the European Union had accused Russian-owned Gazprom of not having delivered sufficient gas through existing pipelines, while Russia claimed that those pipelines were already delivering natural gas at full capacities.Following month on December, 11 2021 Truss said she wanted to work with other countries “to make sure that free democratic nations are able to have an alternative to Russian gas supplies.” She met on the sidelines of the gathering with Germany’s new foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, a politician from the environmentalist Greens who previously opposed Nord Stream 2.
...but that was just the beginning of the story,
things started to heat up in early 2022.
The Nordstream 2 was built, all was ready for a launch.
Gazprom was just waiting for certification.
- Part 2 -
- Part 3 -
- Part 4 -
- Part 5 -
- Part 6 -
002 - UK government does not like Nordstream
OTHER RELATED POSTS:
106 - Liz Truss is ready to try and beat global aggressors at their own game
107 - About Liz Truss and ending the EU´s strategic dependency on Russian hydrocarbons
162 - February 2022 - Germany suspends Nord Stream 2: Q&A on what happens next
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