CRIME SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION
PART 3
(BASED ON NORDSTREAM FILES MASTER DATA-FILE)
SUMMARY
Beginning in February 2022, officials from the UK and US were most vocal in issuing dire warnings to Russia regarding the invasion of Ukraine, threatening stringent sanctions—including the cessation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline—and urging Europe to lessen its dependence on Russian gas. But that was not the beginning. The UK has been very active in this area for longer. (002). This UK´s foreign policy target was traceable long before 2022. (003, 215)
The UK mobilized significant military resources and engaged in extensive diplomatic activities in response to rising tensions highlighting and inserting the cancellation of Nord Stream question as the primary mission (107) of their wider foreign policy. (041) The aim was to curb Russian income and isolate it politically, economically and later militarily. (031)
Lets see how the crisis unfolded and what happened next in February 2022:
THE FAILED SANCTIONS DIPLOMACY
The threat of sanctions, particularly aimed at the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and Russian energy exports, played a crucial role in Western efforts to deter aggression. In retrospect the concentrated hit on Russian energy, an attempt to reduce Russian income from its energy exports, looks like an objective in itself not as a serious strategy to actually meaningfully effect the Russian behaviour in relation to the Ukrainian conflict. The exporter will not get paid if he is not allowed to sell but his valuable commodity will not be taken away. Russia could use the excess energy for stimulating domestic economy and consumption while the effect on the demand side, consumers in EU, would be significantly more serious as more resources would need to be allocated to import more expensive energy from exporters who could ask unreasonable prices as few alternatives exist in large quantities. (106) Historians will need to study the role of sanction and its effectiveness and perhaps look whether hidden motives in applying of them was not what funneled them in the first place? (045)
As the diplomacy was failing, or was let to fail, punitive actions replaced it. (031) The security situation was worsening day by day. Wars start with the failure of diplomacy and end with diplomacy is re-established. Through several following steps, the UK was heading efforts together with the USA in coordination with its allies. It constantly pushed others for doing more. It was one way how the UK was getting back its political power lost after Brexit, it tapped on the past times when the UK was a a sole opposer of Hitler´s armies and island of democracy leading the fight against opressors. (041, 044)
The UK has effectively used so called "salami tactics" to take incremental actions through different vectors to achieve previously unthinkable and without the conflict unachievable, to widen the rift between Germany and Russia to the point that majority of economic links were severed.
This resembles another Hypothesis which I developed in 2014 and started to call "Mackinder´s Roadblocks against Euro-Asian integration and development". The goal would be to erection of Ukraine as a failed state and breaking energy links between Russia and EU. (010) A global geo-strategy mission based on postulates matched and verified by 10 years of world events. If this strategy is correct then the "Objective" is not winning per se but instead a creation of the roadblock - a failed state preventing East west trade, making the region unstable, as winning and controlling Heartland as Mackinder stipulated is not technically achievable.
There were serious breaches of humanitarian rights from both sides, (e.g. seizure of Crimea, break of Minsk II agreements) but some actions which were supposed to prevent and deter the conflict were actually already punishing specifically and selectively as for example sanctions against Russian energy in design and in its nature. (107) EU sanctions for example started in 2014 after Crimea event. (Consilium Europa). Very little energy was spent on seeking for compromise solutions.
Actions were used from Position of power, they were on surface aimed to cause some change in Russian behaviour but collectively they aimed to help to solve UK´s own internal and external issues.
They were in sync with UK´s own long term foreign policies in which Russia is portrait as the biggest threat. Actions the UK was spearheading to incrementally undermine Russia's economic foundations and reduce its influence, especially in the energy sector. The objective and the mission along undermining Russia's energy exports would be to mitigate its geopolitical influence, to bring Global Britain back. (027, 044)
Note: The focus of this investigation is not the illegal Russian actions in Ukraine but the Nordstream affair which this research considers separate from that conflict. This is supported by several statements by European top politicians after explosions happened. For example Jens Stoltenberg’s remarked on September 27, 2022 that the Nordstream affair was "another type of escalation" which hints that those two events are really not connected. (183) Also NATO's subsequent responses and statements are interpreted as potential indicators of NATO's member being involved in the attacks. (148, 213)
FEBRUARY 2022
THE UK ACTS AS THE COORDINATOR FOR STOPPING NORDSTREAM 2
Jeremy Hunt who was a foreign secretary from 2018 to 2019 said on February, 1 2022 that "We must hold firm against Russia’s threats . The best way to deter Putin is to make the price of invasion too high to be bearable. The worst thing we could do is reward his aggression." The next day February, 2 2022 on X/Twitter he posted "The price of an invasion must be too high to be bearable for Russia. My Telegraph article today: We must hold firm against Russia’s threats"
On February 2, 2022, the UK government escalated its response to Russian threats by announcing plans to double British troop presence in Eastern Europe and signaling a commitment to impose sanctions if Russia proceeded with aggression towards Ukraine.
This shift from confrontational rhetoric to direct action was marked by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proactive telephone discussions with world leaders, including President Putin, and a clear message that sanctions would be ready to activate should Russia invade. Johnson emphasized the need for Europe to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies, specifically targeting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as part of this strategy. (105)
Significant diplomatic tensions were unfolding. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on February 4, 2022 confronted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, rejecting his demands and criticizing the West's stance on Ukraine. On the other side Lavrov rejects her demands to cool 'Cold War rhetoric' and slams West's 'ultimatums and moralising'. (106)
Concurrently, on February 4, 2022 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson communicated with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, emphasizing the urgency of preparing jointly with other allies a comprehensive sanctions package against Russia should it invade Ukraine. Johnson stressed that those sanctions should be ready to come into force immediately in the event of further Russian incursion into Ukraine. The UK was leading other states in confrontational political direction.
To support UK´s policy a radical call to action was issued via article on February 4, 2022 Johnson called on Europe to "Remove Nord Stream II from Their veins". Johnson also stressed the necessity for Europe to minimize its dependence on Russian gas, specifically advocating for the removal of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from consideration as a security risk.
In the name of united front against Russian aggression, under the pressure from USA and under the UK's previous pressure on EU nations regarding dependence on Russian energy the EU Commission's stance on sanctions was significantly influenced. The diplomatic condition was worsening and war hawks were ascending replacing negotiations toward any compromises.
On February 4, 2022 the EU´s EU Commission stated that “It is quite clear that Nord Stream 2 cannot be removed from the table as far as sanctions are concerned.” Germany´s commitment to temporarily stop the certification of Nord Stream 2 was becoming reality. (104) The commissioning of the pipeline became a bargaining chip to be used supposedly as a "sugar and whip" leverage. Later Merkel and others will find out that it was a wrong choice and the leverage was misplaced or artificially inflated. (103)
Russian economical influence was growing and opening of the NordStream 2 pipeline could strengthen ties between Europen and Russian companies. Gazprom's revenues from gas exports in 2021 increased by almost 2.2 times compared to 2020 and amounted to $55.51 billion, according to the materials of the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of Russia released on February 7, 2022. In 2021, the Nord Stream pipeline carried 59.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The gas pipeline was loaded at the same record level as in 2020 as reported on February 7, 2022
At Valdai discussion club program director Timofey Bordachev told TASS on February 8, 2022 that "The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline can ensure Germany's leadership in the European economy for decades to come, and it is important for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to maintain it". He was encouraging Germany to resists political pressures to pause the certification.
During a press conference at the White House on February 7, 2022 Scholz sidestepped questions about the pipeline issue. When pressed by reporters, he stated that the US and Germany were "absolutely united." Biden, however, was more explicit, declaring that: "the project wouldn’t go forward if Russia invades Ukraine."
UK SPECIAL BOAT SERVICES ON THE MOVE
On February 6, 2022 Britain announces it sent dozens of special forces to Ukraine amid fears of Russian invasion. The role of more than 100 British elite troops to act as military advisors. Soldiers from SAS (Special Air Service), SBS (Special Boat Service), Special Reconnaissance Regiment and Special Forces Support Group were deployed to Ukraine last week.
Another newspaper specifies on February 7, 2022 the number of personnel UK sent is more than 100 SAS and SBS special forces advisors and as more than 1,000 elite US troops which already arrived in Poland.
On the other side of Atlantic interesting event happened. On February 8, 2022 the US underwater demolition team EXU-1, FBI Hosted Maritime Post-Blast Investigation Course at NAS Key West present were UK specialists. They shared experiences, discussed different scenarios and collaborated on technical aspects of their specialised tasks.
"One a briefing given by U.K. Royal Navy DTXG Commanding Officer Cdr. Sean Heaton, who described the investigation of a series of underwater bombings to oil tankers transiting near the Strait of Hormuz in 2019. Heaton — who was recognized in 2020 as a Member of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (MBE) after overseeing the safe disposal of a 500-pound World War II era Luftwaffe bomb found at London’s King George V Docks — discussed how the investigation into these series of bombings required not just his technical training as an EOD officer, but the necessary crime scene investigation techniques to collect evidence, interview witnesses, and make logical deductions into who and what was responsible for the attacks."
Cdr. Heaton also stressed the collaboration with EXU-1 as a means of success and excellence for both countries, since exploiting these scenarios in the same way allows for good information to be gained and shared.
“In terms of our outlook on current geopolitical events, what helps is having both of our groups looking at the same problem sets. Working together, information exchange is quite easy and prevents numerous delays. We are often in the same places and operating jointly, so our partnership constantly sharpens our skillsets and allows us to be more prepared,” he said. “Different events tie into intelligence gathering which we can all share with each other. That is critical because it allows us to be on the same page with one another before conflict happens. So when conflict does happen, we are all prepared.”
"One a briefing given by U.K. Royal Navy DTXG Commanding Officer Cdr. Sean Heaton, who described the investigation of a series of underwater bombings to oil tankers transiting near the Strait of Hormuz in 2019. Heaton — who was recognized in 2020 as a Member of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (MBE) after overseeing the safe disposal of a 500-pound World War II era Luftwaffe bomb found at London’s King George V Docks — discussed how the investigation into these series of bombings required not just his technical training as an EOD officer, but the necessary crime scene investigation techniques to collect evidence, interview witnesses, and make logical deductions into who and what was responsible for the attacks."
Cdr. Heaton also stressed the collaboration with EXU-1 as a means of success and excellence for both countries, since exploiting these scenarios in the same way allows for good information to be gained and shared.
“In terms of our outlook on current geopolitical events, what helps is having both of our groups looking at the same problem sets. Working together, information exchange is quite easy and prevents numerous delays. We are often in the same places and operating jointly, so our partnership constantly sharpens our skillsets and allows us to be more prepared,” he said. “Different events tie into intelligence gathering which we can all share with each other. That is critical because it allows us to be on the same page with one another before conflict happens. So when conflict does happen, we are all prepared.”
BIDEN´S MISUNDERSTOOD STATEMENT
Moscow relies on hydrocarbons for 60% of its national budget, while oil and gas make up nearly one-third of its gross national product. It already provides about 39% of Europe’s gas. Nord Stream 2 is a companion to Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline, and it allows Russia’s Gazprom to double its natural gas capacity headed to Europe. Russia exported 168 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe in 2020. Germany bought 56 billion cubic meters of that. Italy and the Netherlands followed with 20 billion and 11 billion, respectively.
And we have been absolutely clear that if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or the other, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward. That's leverage for us that we have right now, so we intend to use that leverage and Vladimir Putin has a choice to make. If he chooses to move on Ukraine, he will not be getting the benefits of Nord Stream 2."
He also added that "One of the things that President Biden has been very focused on is making sure that if Putin turns down the supply of gas to Europe, that we can find cargoes of liquefied natural gas going elsewhere in the world and redirect them to Europe. So the United States is prepared for a contingency against Russia".
So, the infamous Biden´s breathtaking statement from the next day which is for many people some kind of confessionary proof is nothing more than Biden repeating what Sullivan said: "We have been absolutely clear that if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or the other, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward". (050)
It would be anyway heresy evidence which is inadmissible. Secondly, the Biden himself has not promised physical destruction of pipelines. He just indirectly stated that sanctions and bringing up the old Merkel´s deal could stop commissioning on the Nord Stream 2. There was no mentioning of the Nord Stream 1 pipelines or a radical proposal of stopping all Russian hydrocarbon exports as UK was suggesting. The agreement with Germany was not final and at the moment when Biden repeated the statement Germany has not yet signed under it so he was just not sharing more information about how. (152)
When President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared at the White House on February 8, 2022, they made clear that Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be left to die on the political battlefield if Russia invades Ukraine. Under pressure Germany caved in. But the question is what will that cost Russia, and where would Europe get its natural gas?
“If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be – there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said during the news conference. “We will bring an end to it … I promise you we will be able to do it.”
Chancellor Scholz followed those remarks by saying that the two NATO allies stand shoulder-to-shoulder: "We're one voice, and do things together and we made it very clear if there was military aggression against Ukraine, this will entail severe consequences that we agreed upon together.”
On February 9, 2022 a video was released that the reporter from The Hill asked a direct question how was Biden planning to stop the Nordstream. Unknown to many he got an answer.
Reporter: "Logistically speaking, how would the President ensure that [Nord Stream 2] would not happen [if Russia invades]?"
@PressSec: "I'm just not going to get into more specifics from here, but I can assure you that is a commitment, and one we will deliver on."
Later in the May 26, 2022 more details in the article "The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia" confirmed that it was a pledge. It said that: "Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise." (161)
There was no real leverage in commissioning of Nord Stream 2. She explained that: "The theory at the time was: If Nord Stream 2 is operational, Putin will no longer supply gas through Ukraine or even attack it." Did Russia weaponized the pipeline? Merkel clarified that: “In this sense, gas was not a weapon,”
EU law about "unbundling" of gas exporter and pipeline operator stipulate that in case of non-availability of one pipeline contractual parties could use another pipeline after agreeing on fees to be paid to transmission countries. Worries were that Russia could attack Ukraine and then destroy their pipelines shifting exports to other pipelines, aka using gas as a weapon against Ukraine. The postponement of certification when Ukraine was under Russian threat allies thought that they are ensuring gas transit through Ukraine, which would also secure transit fees for Ukraine which make substantial part of their budget. (128)
Note that this same EU law "Legal unbundling of gas exporter and gas operator" also takes away arguments from those uninformed who assume that it could be Russian motive to self-sabotage pipelines in order not to deliver pre agreed volumes. (026, 029)
Merkel also noted the economic benefits of cheaper Russian pipeline gas over LNG, and pointed out the lack of investment in German LNG terminals due to high costs and no long-term commitments. They were prepared to support the construction of two terminals for liquid natural gas (LNG) in Germany with taxpayers' money. "But until the last day of my term in office, no company built an LNG terminal in Germany because there was no importer who would book long-term capacity in advance because of the high price."
At the end it was Germany and its allies who tried to "weaponized" and played pipeline politics.
FROM THE POSITION OF POWER
After Germany, France and Netherland under pressure of circumstances and its allies agreed to try to postpone the certification in hopes to give Russia some incentive to rethink a direct clash with Ukraine the UK was already on the next step. Making Sanctions ready for possible deployment.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke on February 8, 2022 with the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. They agreed on the need for Western unity in the face of Russian aggression, and the importance of preparing severe economic sanctions to deter Russia from crossing the border into Ukraine.
At the Opening remarks of the Press Conference in Moscow on Februaryy 10 2022 between UK-Russian foreign ministers Liz Truss denounces “indivisibility of security” rule to push the agenda that Ukraine is free to join NATO which she knew was the friction point and an unacceptable for Russia. She argued that "This means that countries on Russia’s borders can’t defend themselves or join defensive alliances like NATO simply isn’t true."
This principle or understanding within international relations and security studies means that the security of one country or region is linked to the security of others. One side can not substantially improve its security without degrading security of the other. In simple terms, if one part of the world is unstable or unsafe, it can affect the safety and stability of other parts too. Everyone's security depends on everyone else being secure.
Two days after on February 10, 2022 Prime minister Boris Johnson met with Polish President Andrzej Duda. The Prime Minister emphasised the need for NATO allies to speak with one voice against ongoing Russian hostility. The leaders agreed that allies must continue working on a package of sanctions which would take force in the event of any further hostility. They also underlined the need for European countries to reconsider the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in that event. The UK was finding allies making sure that the project will stall in case of conflict. The collective pressure on undecisive Germany paid off.
On February 11 2022 The Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace MP meets Russian counterpart in Moscow. They held talks with the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergey Shoygu. Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin also met his counterpart, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov.Sergei Shoigu began his meeting with Wallace by attacking the UK’s deliveries of lethal arms and military trainers to Ukraine, which Wallace claims would only be useful for defence in case of a potential invasion. “I would like to see the reason why the United Kingdom is sending special forces to Ukraine and until when [they] will be there,” Shoigu said.
Note that later after the attack on Nordstream all Russian representatives who expressed their opinion on record mentioned that the act was done by Alglo-Saxons. They also accused UK=s Special Board Services team of which some members were just in Ukraine. (199)
The transcript from the meeting at the British Embassy in Moscow where Ben Wallace hosted conference after talks with Russian Defence Minister February 11, 2022 mentions again that the UK was insisting that Ukraine is fee to enter NATO. Russia offered NATO a draft of the treaty.
The transcript from the meeting at the British Embassy in Moscow where Ben Wallace hosted conference after talks with Russian Defence Minister February 11, 2022 mentions again that the UK was insisting that Ukraine is fee to enter NATO. Russia offered NATO a draft of the treaty.
"... and just to give you an update on my talks with minister Shoigu and general Gerasimov at the Russian ministry of defence it was a constructive and frank discussion i was grateful for minister shaw go agreeing to meet with me to discuss a range of issues including the ongoing tensions around Ukraine and the border we discussed in detail obviously Russia's draft treaty that it offered up to nato and addressed a number of the points we also both agreed on the importance of the implementation of the Minsk agreement as a clear way forward I was clear about the tragic consequences that any invasion of Ukraine could have for all people both Ukrainian, Russia and the security of Europe and we listened to the assurances given by minister Shoigu and indeed general Gerasimov that they would not invade Ukraine and we urged dialogue as a way through to address any concerns that Russia the Russian government may have I reasserted that our concerns in the western nato was as much about the right of a country to choose its future and its alliances as it was anything else and that right of choice is a choice that has been underpinned by numerous treaties and declarations signed by both Russian governments and indeed western governments over many years as far back as the 1970s I'm very grateful for the meeting today we discuss other subjects around terrorism and indeed improving our bilateral relationship as well as looking at confidence building measures"
Russia’s defence minister has described levels of cooperation with Britain as “close to zero” and in danger of going into “negative” territory. On February 11, 2022 he received the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, in Moscow for talks meant to de-escalate tensions with the west.
The same day on February 11, 2022 news report that "Truss goes nuclear as she unveils new law to cripple Russia in explosive warning to Putin". She explained that tougher and more far-reaching sanctions were prepared for those linked to Russia, if Moscow invades neighbouring Ukraine. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "The UK is resolute in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to self-determination. We urge Russia to de-escalate and choose the path of diplomacy. If Russia persists with its aggression towards Ukraine the UK and its partners will not hesitate to act."
Addressing the media from Brussels, Mr Johnson said he hoped “patient diplomacy” and "strong deterrence" would pay off amid "very high stakes".
The UK understands the Ukrainian "Right to self-determination" as a right to become member of NATO. The issue here is that Ukraine does not recognize Crimea being part of the Russia Federation nor they have a full control over its East territories.
Due to internal tensions parts of Donetsk and Lugansk were not under full control of Kiev since 2014 when separatist tendentious started due to dissatisfaction of citizens who hoped to follow the Crimean path of splitting from Ukraine. Army which was supposed to bring peace created wider split and dissatisfaction. These long term issues were exploited, likely funneled from both sides Russa and West who followed their own primary self interests. Weakened Ukraine was becoming a hot spot playground for international crisis.
For Russia the idea of Ukrainian NATO membership was unacceptable. For Ukraine the loss of Crimea and unresolved territorial issues in Lugansk and Donetsk were also unacceptable. The unresolved issue of these two separatist regions may have been seen as Russian "insurance" against Ukrainian attempt to join NATO. This is similar to Moldova, where unresolved status of Transnistria is blocking the country in becoming NATO member. Same could be said about Georgia where Abkhazia and South Ossetia are separatist regions of Georgia in the Caucasus. Most countries recognise them as part of Georgia, while Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria regard them as independent.
Any Ukrainian military attempt, active preparation to change in short term the status of its territories which does not control namely parts of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea in pursuit of becoming NATO member instead of finding diplomatic compromise would be interpreted by Moscow as a sign of Ukraine wanting to decide its security without taking in consideration its neighbours interests.
This study does not try to explain historical reasons, complex internal and external politics, nor does it try to argue about legality of the invasion or the lack of it, it does not take sides, it is impartial, it looks at evolution of positions and decisions. This research merely describes one point of view on which NATO members were strengthening its own position using the Nord Stream 2 card as a leverage in a wider energy pipeline geo-political game.
In November 2021, the USA and Ukraine signed the "U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership."
The Charter reaffirms the U.S. commitment to support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. This includes Crimea since the international community, including the U.S., does not recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 as legitimate. This agreement specifically mentions Ukraine's NATO membership and explains that:
"Guided by the April 3, 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration of the NATO North Atlantic Council and as reaffirmed in the June 14, 2021 Brussels Summit Communique of the NATO North Atlantic Council, the United States supports Ukraine’s right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO."
This Charter thus positions the U.S. as a supporter of Ukraine's NATO aspirations while also emphasizing the need for Ukraine to undertake necessary reforms and resolve existing conflicts to achieve membership.
14 Feb 2022 - UK: Boris Johnson urges Russia to step back from precipice of Ukraine conflict
UK prime minister Boris Johnson urged Russia to step back from the “edge of a precipice”, warning that the “evidence is pretty clear” that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine.
Johnson said on Monday: “This is a very, very dangerous, difficult situation, we are on the edge of a precipice but there is still time for President Putin to step back.”Johnson told reporters that “the world needs to learn the lesson of 2014” when Russia annexed Crimea, as he urged Europe to end its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
The fate of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will carry Russian gas across the Baltic Sea to Germany, is one of the biggest sticking points in the transatlantic debate over which sanctions to impose against Moscow in the event of an invasion.
When asked about Nord Stream 2, which is complete but not yet operating on February 15, 2022, Chancellor Scholz said Germany has made a commitment to ensuring gas transportation in Europe functions and skips to make a concrete statement about the Nord Stream 2. Again, this is a next confirmation that the deal between Biden and Scholz was nothing more than a commitment and that Biden did not have on mind physical destruction of both NS1 and NS2. For the USA it was a success to reverse the previous release of sanctions which Trump imposed.
"We want to ensure peaceful development in Europe, without military confrontation in Ukraine. And if confrontation happens, it will entail serious repercussions. Everybody understands this. We know what to do in this case and it seems to me that everybody else knows and understands it too. They understand what is going on and understand the potential political repercussions."
Significant developments occurred regarding the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The situation intensified as Russian troops amassed at the Ukrainian border, prompting concerns from Western nations about a potential invasion. Diplomatic efforts were ongoing, but tensions remained high.
Concerns grow over Liz Truss’s publicly funded five photos a day on February 12, 2022. Article ‘Instagram diplomacy’ described Liz Truss behaviour: "From driving a tank to jogging in New York, the foreign secretary has made more than 700 appearances on the government’s Flickr account since taking up the job" This article is interesting as Truss positioned itself as a strong leader similar to Margaret Thatcher who was dubbed the "Iron Lady" due to her strong, resolute, and often uncompromising leadership style, particularly in the realms of foreign and domestic policy. (054, 091, 106, 107)
Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis tells Times Radio there should be a more unified European approach to counter Russian aggression on February 13, 2022 He stresses that "We have very strong, different views than some of our allies around Nord Stream." In an unclear message he explains that certain decision has been taken which allows the UK to do more: "...there there is an issue which should be dealt with, but Look, our focus is on the action we just took even last week with the legislation signed by the minister Cleverly in the Foreign office. It is actually an instrument which allows us to take more actions obviously the work we are dealing on that is to ensure
and the reason we are not...and I am not... we have to not... ...and we have to rely on Tuesday... ...the specifics of that... We are working through... What would make the most impact, How do we make sure that it is direct. That we are ready to do as soo as we have to and doing that in conjunction with our allies to make sure that there is a cohesive approach to this..."
and the reason we are not...and I am not... we have to not... ...and we have to rely on Tuesday... ...the specifics of that... We are working through... What would make the most impact, How do we make sure that it is direct. That we are ready to do as soo as we have to and doing that in conjunction with our allies to make sure that there is a cohesive approach to this..."
The talks between the Ms Truss and Mr Lavrov last week were tense and ended in an awkward press conference in which the Russian minister appeared to question her understanding of the crisis. Mr Lavrov described the meeting as a “conversation between deaf and dumb”, claiming Ms Truss did not listen to Russia’s position and the UK was unprepared for the talks.
Commenting on her trip to Moscow UK Foreign Secretary said February 14, 2022 she had a 'clear message' to deliver to the Kremlin ‘Russians didn’t like what I had to say’.
“Of course, the Russians didn’t like what I had to say but I had to deliver a message to Vladimir Putin’s government, I went to Russia to deliver a very clear message, which is that it’s Russia who is the aggressor. Of course, the Russians didn’t like what I had to say but I say it nevertheless. And I want them to desist and I want them to be aware that there will be severe costs of an invasion.”
STRENGTHENING ROLE OF NATO AND JEF
In November 2021, the USA and Ukraine signed the "U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership."
The Charter reaffirms the U.S. commitment to support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. This includes Crimea since the international community, including the U.S., does not recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 as legitimate. This agreement specifically mentions Ukraine's NATO membership and explains that:
- Support for NATO Membership: The Charter reaffirms the United States' support for Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO. It explicitly states that the United States supports Ukraine's right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO. This is grounded in the declarations from the 2008 Bucharest Summit and the 2021 Brussels NATO Summit.
- Framework for Cooperation: The agreement aims to enhance Ukraine-U.S. defense and security cooperation based on the 2021 Strategic Defense Framework. It mentions deepening cooperation in areas like Black Sea security, cyber defense, and intelligence sharing, which can be seen as steps towards greater interoperability with NATO standards.
- NATO's Open Door Policy: It underscores that NATO's "open door" policy remains in place, emphasizing that Ukraine's path towards NATO membership is contingent on meeting the necessary criteria and having the unanimous agreement of all NATO members.
"Guided by the April 3, 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration of the NATO North Atlantic Council and as reaffirmed in the June 14, 2021 Brussels Summit Communique of the NATO North Atlantic Council, the United States supports Ukraine’s right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO."
This Charter thus positions the U.S. as a supporter of Ukraine's NATO aspirations while also emphasizing the need for Ukraine to undertake necessary reforms and resolve existing conflicts to achieve membership.
Western allies displayed first notable disagreements regarding their strategy toward Russia, with some advocating for robust sanctions (US, UK) while others (GER) favored diplomatic engagement. The failing diplomatic efforts to find a compromise and the threat of Russian invasion int o Ukraine prompted a reevaluation of NATO's role in Europe, leading to increased military presence in Eastern Europe and talks of expanding NATO membership, especially from Sweden and Finland.
The UK was very active though JEF diplomatically. The official purpose of the force is to be able to react quickly with joint efforts under British leadership, to improve NATO’s reaction time and to deter Russia. The JEF is intended as a pool of high readiness, adaptable forces that is designed to enhance the UK's ability to respond rapidly, anywhere in the world, with like-minded allies, or on behalf of international organizations such as the UN or NATO. Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) was established by the UK and consists of 10 North-European countries, including Norway. (043, 197)
As of early 4 February 4, 2022, the UK engaged with partners through the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) members to strengthen bonds and enhance security efforts across Europe. The UK embassy in Finland posted that "Our people in the British Embassy in Helsinki have been working together with the #JEF to:
- Strengthen bonds with the JEF Nations
- Integrate Counter Hybrid Efforts across Europe
- Further Euro-Atlantic security"
- Integrate Counter Hybrid Efforts across Europe
- Further Euro-Atlantic security"
The Commander of SJFHQ Maj Gen Jim Morris visited Estonia on February 5, 2022 to reinforce the UK’s enduring commitments and develop the alliance’s capability and commitment to mutual security
Russian President Putin warned on February 7 2022 that Ukraine's NATO membership could escalate into a nuclear conflict, acknowledging NATO's greater military capabilities while asserting Russia's nuclear strength. The Russian President implied at a joint press conference with French President Emanuel Macron during the latter’s visit to Moscow that Ukraine could drag NATO into a nuclear war. If Ukraine joined NATO and decided to take back Crimea through military means, European countries would be automatically drawn into a military conflict with Russia, Putin said. The Kremlin understood that “NATO’s united potential” was incomparably larger than that of Russia, but Russia was “one of the world’s leading nuclear powers” and was “superior” to “many” NATO countries “in terms of the number of modern nuclear force components.” Putin claimed that neither he nor Macron wanted to see developments “unfold” that way.
The UK again recognized on February 8, 2022 the significance of the JEF in coordinating defense among nine nations against threats to Europe's northern flank. "SWE and UK are close defence partners, and we work together as part of the JEF. "Defence Secretary Ben Wallace today met Swedish Foreign Minister Linde for talks on European Security and our response to the build-up of Russian forces on the border of Ukraine."
Meetings between UK and Polish leaders on February 10 2022 highlighted the need for a joint coordinated efforts and unified NATO stance against Russian aggression and potential sanctions aimed at Russia. The UK was particularly issues regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. They also underlined the need for European countries to reconsider the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in in the event of any further hostility.
The UK Admiral Tony Radakin stated on February 15, 2022 that "Europe matters to Britain’s security and Britain makes an important contribution to Europe’s security. Through the JEF, the UK is able to convene 9 nations, including non-NATO partners Finland and Sweden, in defence of Europe’s northern flank."
The same day on February 15, 2022 US, UK Navy Chiefs met to discuss cooperation and interoperability.
After Brexit the UK lost its political influence. (041) The Russian Ukrainian tension which later changed into full blown crisis leading to a hot conflict gave the UK opportunity to return some of its importance utilizing its weight. It was seeking to deploy its assets, The London as a financial hub spearheading financial sanctions, pressure of other smaller allies, its navy, material support and military advisors.
TOWARD MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE
Describing the current energy situation in Europe Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation on February 13, 2022 with Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz emphasised that Russia has always been and remains a reliable supplier of energy resources and fulfils all of its contractual obligations, while any interruptions, for example in the operation of Nord Stream 1, are the result of anti-Russia sanctions that interfere with the pipeline’s technical maintenance. Considering that gas supply via Ukraine and Poland was stopped by their governments, as well as the refusal to put Nord Stream 2 into operation, the attempts to shift the blame for Europe’s energy problems onto Russia look very cynical.
In a speech at a security conference in Munich, February 14, 2022, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "As I speak to you today, we do not fully know what President Putin intends but the omens are grim and that is why we must stand strong together. He urges all "We must now wean ourselves off dependence on Putin’s oil and gas." This is a bit cynical as the UK is not importing any from Russia.
14 Feb 2022 - UK: Boris Johnson urges Russia to step back from precipice of Ukraine conflict
UK prime minister Boris Johnson urged Russia to step back from the “edge of a precipice”, warning that the “evidence is pretty clear” that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine.
Johnson said on Monday: “This is a very, very dangerous, difficult situation, we are on the edge of a precipice but there is still time for President Putin to step back.”Johnson told reporters that “the world needs to learn the lesson of 2014” when Russia annexed Crimea, as he urged Europe to end its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
The fate of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will carry Russian gas across the Baltic Sea to Germany, is one of the biggest sticking points in the transatlantic debate over which sanctions to impose against Moscow in the event of an invasion.
“We need to find alternative sources of energy . . . and get ready to impose some very, very severe economic consequences on Russia.“
Ben Wallace, UK defence secretary, criticised diplomatic efforts this weekend, telling the Sunday Times newspaper that it amounted to appeasement and there was “a whiff of Munich” in the air.
Responding to Wallace’s comments, Johnson said: “I think the defence secretary is absolutely right to say it’s very important that we’ve got to be strong, and we’ve got to be resolute and we’ve got to be united.“
Ben Wallace, UK defence secretary, criticised diplomatic efforts this weekend, telling the Sunday Times newspaper that it amounted to appeasement and there was “a whiff of Munich” in the air.
Responding to Wallace’s comments, Johnson said: “I think the defence secretary is absolutely right to say it’s very important that we’ve got to be strong, and we’ve got to be resolute and we’ve got to be united.“
On a visit to Rosyth shipyard in Scotland, he said on February 14, 2022 “This is a very, very dangerous, difficult situation, we are on the edge of a precipice but there is still time for President Putin to step back.” Johnson warned on threat of imminent invasion of Ukraine is ‘extremely concerning’. He warned an invasion of Ukraine could take place within 48 hours as he urged Vladimir Putin to step back from the “edge of a precipice”. His main message to allies was this: "What I think all European countries need to do now is get Nord Stream out of the bloodstream. Yank out that hypodermic drip feed of Russian hydrocarbons that is keeping so many European economies going"
UNDER PRESSURE GERMANY CAVES IN
Scholz says on February 15, 2022 that ‘Lasting security’ in Europe can only be achieved with Russian help. Scholz also said that he was committed to ensuring the transit of gas through Ukraine. “We are committed to ensuring gas transit in Europe works through Ukraine, Belarus, Poland and Nord Stream 1 according to the agreements we have. And we also want to ensure peaceful development in Europe,” Scholz said. He implicitly hints that the conflict is about to happen ad that the future of Nord Stream 2 project imminent certification is uncertain. (103)
When asked about Nord Stream 2, which is complete but not yet operating on February 15, 2022, Chancellor Scholz said Germany has made a commitment to ensuring gas transportation in Europe functions and skips to make a concrete statement about the Nord Stream 2. Again, this is a next confirmation that the deal between Biden and Scholz was nothing more than a commitment and that Biden did not have on mind physical destruction of both NS1 and NS2. For the USA it was a success to reverse the previous release of sanctions which Trump imposed.
In a news conference following Russian-German talks February 15, 2022 Scholz declares: "As concerns Nord Stream 2, I do not want to comment on the economic activity of a former politician, who speaks on his own behalf, not on the behalf of the Federal Republic of Germany. As for the pipeline itself, we all know very well what is happening. We undertook obligations to secure gas transit to Europe via Ukraine, Belarus and Poland using Nord Stream 1, as agreed, and we are delivering on these obligations."
"We want to ensure peaceful development in Europe, without military confrontation in Ukraine. And if confrontation happens, it will entail serious repercussions. Everybody understands this. We know what to do in this case and it seems to me that everybody else knows and understands it too. They understand what is going on and understand the potential political repercussions."
Nord Stream 2 lost German political support.
Germany capitulated. Their political will to resist was broken.
THE BOILING POINT
By February 20 and 21, Western nations continued to express their worries about the possibility of Russia launching an invasion. The U.S. and NATO allies were preparing to implement sanctions against Russia should it decide to take military action. Ukrainian officials were also urging citizens to remain calm but vigilant.
The message about was as follows: "It’s vital that the Russian people and the Russian government hear directly from us about the price they would pay for a further invasion. Not only would there be massive consequences bringing severe economic costs for Russia through an unprecedented package of coordinated sanctions. It would also hit their other strategic interests including Nord Stream 2 - making it unconscionable for the pipeline to go ahead. Alongside our allies, we are taking a hard-headed approach, which means being ready to accept short-term pain for long-term gain, whether through imposing sanctions or cutting strategic dependence."
On February 17 2022 British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that Britain was providing Ukraine with new "defensive weapons systems," and announced a fresh diplomatic overture toward Moscow.
"We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light anti-armor, defensive weapon systems," Wallace told Parliament. He added: "They are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia. They are to use in self-defense." Wallace also said he was inviting Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to London for talks in the coming weeks to help defuse the crisis.
On February, 16 2022 an article with name "Energy crunch: How the UK could play crucial role if Russia turned off gas taps to Europe" discussed how the UK could become a hub for LNG imports to EU. "The UK could send North Sea gas directly to Europe, through its pipelines, and then replenish its own gas network with LNG imported from the US, Qatar or other suppliers. There are a couple of important reasons why the UK would end up as a supplier (or rather the pipeline) of last resort."
It may be just a cynical comment at this point but for the UK a future destruction of energy ties between the EU and Russia could bring more benefits than losses. There is a saying that each crisis is also an opportunity.
The next day on February 17 2022 Liz Truss article is published with a name "Russia must pull back, or there will be trouble in the pipeline"
The message about was as follows: "It’s vital that the Russian people and the Russian government hear directly from us about the price they would pay for a further invasion. Not only would there be massive consequences bringing severe economic costs for Russia through an unprecedented package of coordinated sanctions. It would also hit their other strategic interests including Nord Stream 2 - making it unconscionable for the pipeline to go ahead. Alongside our allies, we are taking a hard-headed approach, which means being ready to accept short-term pain for long-term gain, whether through imposing sanctions or cutting strategic dependence."
Surprisingly on 21st of September 2022 just a five days before the Nordstream pipelines are blown up she made very similar statement at the UN Assembly in New York telling that:
"We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."
"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."
"We are cutting off the toxic power and pipelines from authoritarian regimes and strengthening our energy resilience."
"We will ensure we cannot be coerced or harmed by the reckless actions of rogue actors abroad."
"The free world needs this economic strength and resilience to push back against authoritarian aggression and win this new era of strategic competition. We must do this together."
"We are fortifying our deep security alliances in Europe and beyond through NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force."
"The UK is providing funding, using the might of the City of London and our security capabilities to provide better alternatives to those offered by malign regimes. (054)
The UK decided on February 17, 2022 to guarantee up to $500 million in loans to help Ukraine to withstand the economic impact of Russia’s actions. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "We are putting our money where our mouth is and using Britain’s economic expertise and strength to support the people of Ukraine. These guarantees can help inject vital capital into Ukraine and help its economy weather the storm of Russian aggression." and "Britain stands four-square behind Ukraine and its people. We stand ready to offer direct economic support, providing defensive weapons, and exposing Russian attempts to engineer fake pretexts for invasion."
On February 17 2022 British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that Britain was providing Ukraine with new "defensive weapons systems," and announced a fresh diplomatic overture toward Moscow.
"We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light anti-armor, defensive weapon systems," Wallace told Parliament. He added: "They are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia. They are to use in self-defense." Wallace also said he was inviting Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to London for talks in the coming weeks to help defuse the crisis.
When G7 leaders agreed on February 18, 2022 to work in unity to "maximise the economic price" that Putin will pay Boris Johnson says again that this "must include ending reliance on Russian oil and gas - hails Germany's suspension of Nord Stream 2."
On February 19, 2022 Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Munich. The Prime Minister said that we are currently in the most dangerous phase in the crisis with a Russian invasion possible at any moment. The Prime Minister and Chancellor Scholz resolved to redouble efforts to reach a diplomatic resolution to prevent unnecessary bloodshed. The leaders also agreed that, should President Putin make the catastrophic miscalculation to further breach Ukrainian sovereignty, allies must put in place a comprehensive response which strikes at the heart of Russia’s strategic interests. The Prime Minister underscored that to reduce the threat from Russia in the long-term Europe must end its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.
On February 19, 2022 Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Munich. The Prime Minister said that we are currently in the most dangerous phase in the crisis with a Russian invasion possible at any moment. The Prime Minister and Chancellor Scholz resolved to redouble efforts to reach a diplomatic resolution to prevent unnecessary bloodshed. The leaders also agreed that, should President Putin make the catastrophic miscalculation to further breach Ukrainian sovereignty, allies must put in place a comprehensive response which strikes at the heart of Russia’s strategic interests. The Prime Minister underscored that to reduce the threat from Russia in the long-term Europe must end its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.
Excerpt from Boris Johnson´s speech at the Munich Security Conference published on February 19, 2022. In it he calls for unity.
"We must now wean ourselves off dependence on Putin’s oil and gas. I understand the costs and complexities of this effort and the fact this is easier said than done, so I am grateful for Chancellor Scholz’s assurances about Nord Stream 2, but the lessons of the last few years, and of Gazprom’s obvious manipulation of European gas supply, cannot be ignored.
We must ensure that by making full use of alternative suppliers and technology, we make Russia’s threats redundant. That will be the work of the months and years to come, as well as the necessary and overdue steps that we in the UK must take to protect our own financial system."
We must ensure that by making full use of alternative suppliers and technology, we make Russia’s threats redundant. That will be the work of the months and years to come, as well as the necessary and overdue steps that we in the UK must take to protect our own financial system."
This is quite interesting statement because gas sent via pipelines is priced under long 10-20 year contracts with set prices, LNG price fluctuates based on actual supply and demand and is set on the Spot market. The price is highest when the demand is actually highest so it could be sometimes quite costly if at one moment many importers compete for limited capacity. Each exporter wants to diversify but also each importer wants to have more options so their negotiation positions would be stronger but at the end geography defines relations. Gas market is not similar to oil market where Saudi Arabia plays so called Swing producer and together with OPEC they can rump up or ease production. Note that Boris Johnson´s vision for the United Kingdom from 2021 was to become Saudi Arabia of wing power. He is therefore in a way promoting future switch into more expensive form of energy. Russia is at this point largest regional energy exporter while the EU is on the other end of this equation. A marriage of convenience which lasted even through Cold War.
Boris Johnson’s sanctions against Russia have been slammed on February 22, 2022 as not tough enough by MPs. Tory MP Tom Tugendhat said UK sanctions against Russia should go “much further, much faster”. The Foreign Affairs Committee chairman made the comments after the prime minister announced the “first barrage” of punitive measures. The UK placed penalties on five Russian banks and three "very high net worth" individuals linked to Vladmir Putin after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's statement on February, 23 2022 where he described Vladimir Putin as "Having gone ´full tonto´ over Ukraine and that left himself with "no friends". The British army "kicked the backside of Tsar Nicholas I in 1853 in Crimea", he adds, and "can always do it again" indicated the trust that the British army could replicate its historical successes in Crimea.
It was highly charged and uncharacteristically provocative for a government official. This rhetoric reflected an escalation in confrontational language towards Russia, reinforcing the UK's position against the invasion of Ukraine. Wallace's comments can be interpreted as part of a larger UK strategy to bolster morale and signal strength both domestically and to allies. By invoking historical military victories, he aimed to galvanize support and frame the UK as a decisive player ready to confront Russian aggression. (081, 219)
U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace called Russia's actions in eastern Ukraine "incredibly serious."
on February 22, 2022 Ukrainians expect "losses" as U.S. and Europe ready sanctions over Putin's "act of war". Wallace added that "This is a sovereign state that has now had some of its land effectively annexed from it. This is a sovereign state that is a democratic state in Europe, all of us in Europe should worry," Wallace said. "We should not hesitate to take whatever action we need to to deter President Putin from undermining both NATO, but also Europe, and more importantly, our values."
on February 22, 2022 Ukrainians expect "losses" as U.S. and Europe ready sanctions over Putin's "act of war". Wallace added that "This is a sovereign state that has now had some of its land effectively annexed from it. This is a sovereign state that is a democratic state in Europe, all of us in Europe should worry," Wallace said. "We should not hesitate to take whatever action we need to to deter President Putin from undermining both NATO, but also Europe, and more importantly, our values."
Johnson said in London that "This is, I should stress, just the first barrage of U.K. economic sanctions against Russia, because we expect, I'm afraid, that there is more Russian irrational behavior to come,"
GERMANY CAVES IN UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE UK AND USA
On Monday February 22, 2022 the Russian president recognised two breakaway Ukrainian regions as independent states and ordered Russian troops to deploy to both. Western nations largely see the action as a pretext for a wider invasion. In response, Germany halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and other Western nations issued sanctions. Sanctions can take various forms - the term can refer to many actions used by one country to harm another, usually to deter aggressive actions or breaches of international law.
Two days before Russia's invasion on February 22, 2022 Merkel´s deal about Nord Stream 2 is reaffirmed.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he had ordered the economy ministry to withdraw a supply security report, which is an essential element for certification, effectively putting the process on hold. This came as a reaction to Russia's president Vladimir Putin officially recognising two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.
Was it unfounded miscalculation, a strategic flop? Later in summer 2022 Merkel will confess that Russia has not used pipelines as energy weapon. The calculation was that Russia will try to stop deliveries through Ukraine and push Western states to use the new pipeline. At that time flows to European countries through both Nord stream 1 and through Ukraine were according to contracts. (103)
Johnson has been stung by criticism that his first “barrage” of measures against Russia was too weak and left Britain trailing the US and EU in the scope and scale of its reprisals.
The prime minister on Wednesday convened leading City figures including senior executives from HSBC, Barclays, Goldman Sachs and Lloyd’s of London to tell them that he wanted the next “wave” of sanctions to “really bite”. Trading exchanges and regulators were also represented at the meeting in Number 10.
The City executives told Johnson they were already carrying out stress-testing on their business models to assess the impact of what Johnson claims will be robust sanctions.
“We want the toughest possible next tranche and I do think that will make a difference and change the outcome,” Johnson told the meeting. “Putin must fail.”
On Februart 23, 2022 USA imposes further sanctions on Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Russia calls them ‘illegal’'.
President Biden released statement on Nord Stream 2 on February 23, 2022
"Today, I have directed my administration to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers. These steps are another piece of our initial tranche of sanctions in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate.
Through his actions, President Putin has provided the world with an overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas and to other forms of energy. I want to thank Chancellor Scholz for his close partnership and continued dedication to holding Russia accountable for its actions."
"Today, I have directed my administration to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers. These steps are another piece of our initial tranche of sanctions in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate.
Through his actions, President Putin has provided the world with an overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas and to other forms of energy. I want to thank Chancellor Scholz for his close partnership and continued dedication to holding Russia accountable for its actions."
USA announced on February 23, 2022 that it is sanctioning Nord Stream 2 AG CEO, Matthias Warnig, and NS2AG’s Corporate Officers.
Blinken: "The United States applauds Germany’s decision to take administrative steps to halt the certification process for Nord Stream 2, which will prevent the pipeline from becoming operational. After consultations with Germany and the EU, I have terminated the waiver and imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG (NS2AG), its CEO Matthias Warnig, and NS2AG’s corporate officers. This action is in line with the United States’ longstanding opposition to Nord Stream 2 as a Russian geopolitical project and the President’s commitment that Nord Stream 2 would not move forward following the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."
Russian Ambassador to Germany S.Yu. Nechaev comments on February 23, 2022 that:
"We regret that Germany is going to suspend the certification of Nord Stream 2, because before this, Germany has always stated that the gas pipeline is a commercial, purely economic project and has nothing to do with politics. Now this position, apparently, is changing under the active pressure of our overseas colleagues. Nord Stream 2 is needed primarily for the energy security of Europe; the economy and population of Germany and Europe benefit from this. We hope that this statement is a temporary measure and that prudence and pragmatism will ultimately prevail."
"Uniper, which is involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a financial investor, is "deeply unsettled" by the current political situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border."
Group CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach stated this to journalists at a video conference on the presentation of the 2021 financial statements. He said this as CEO of a company "where thousands of colleagues worked hard for the Group every day, either in Russia itself or in long-standing relationships with Russian partners." Maubach, meanwhile, hopes that the pipeline will be able to start after all: "We are counting on a diplomatic solution, the certification process being resumed and Nord Stream 2 going into operation," he said. (155)
The certification withdrawal was temporary and the company hoped that a political solution could be found some time later in undefined timeframe.
Wintershall Dea, a German oil and gas firm, anticipated compensation for its investment in Nord Stream 2 after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocked its certification. The company expected repayment of hundreds of millions in loans if the pipeline is never activated as stated after Schol´z decision on February 24, 2022.
Secretary Antony Blinken explained on February 24, 2022 on Twitter that "We worked closely with Germany to stop the Nord Steam 2 pipeline. Germany has been a leader on efforts to respond to Russian aggression and announced strong actions yesterday. Today, I am sanctioning Nord Stream 2 AG, its CEO, and its corporate officers."
On February 24, 2022 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He welcomed Germany’s decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 pipeline but said that allies must now make a concerted effort to bring the strongest possible sanctions to bear on the Putin regime. He emphasized that President Putin must be prevented from succeeding, which necessitates the Western world isolating him politically and economically. He warned that any Western inaction or insufficient response could lead to unthinkable consequences
In UK Jeremy Hunt stated on February 24 2022 that preset measures are not enough: "The whole West is going to have to do a lot more. The UK can’t ask Germany to cancel Nord Stream 2 unless the government does the equivalent with Russian money in London."
The Prime Minister Boris Johnson call with NATO leaders on February 25, 2022 and added that the world must make certain President Putin would fail in this act of aggression. Ukraine was showing strong resistance. He added that there could be no normalisation of relations with Russia after this act. (032)
On February 19, 2022 Putin launched nuclear drills as US says Russia poised to invade Ukraine
Zelensky's speech at Munich Security Conference from February 19, 2022 highlights issues connected to . "Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this. Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.
The address by the President of the Russian Federation from February 21, 2022 states that: "As we know, it has already been stated today that Ukraine intends to create its own nuclear weapons, and this is not just bragging. Ukraine has the nuclear technologies created back in the Soviet times and delivery vehicles for such weapons, including aircraft, as well as the Soviet-designed Tochka-U precision tactical missiles with a range of over 100 kilometres. But they can do more; it is only a matter of time. They have had the groundwork for this since the Soviet era.
In other words, acquiring tactical nuclear weapons will be much easier for Ukraine than for some other states I am not going to mention here, which are conducting such research, especially if Kiev receives foreign technological support. We cannot rule this out either."
Russia repeatedly warned that it is:“one of the most powerful nuclear states” and “there should be no doubt for anyone” that a direct attack on Russia would lead to defeat. Using nuclear weapons in Ukraine by Russia would increase resistance to Putin within Russia and galvanise global forces to punish him and his regime. If Putin is intent upon personal or national suicide, there are easier ways to do it than by using nuclear weapons given that there is little if anything to be gained by doing so.
In final days in office on October 20, 2022 Liz Truss was obsessed with wind charts and weather forecasts because she feared nuclear fallout. It has been revealed she was warned Vladimir Putin could 'go nuclear' after Ukrainian forces blew up the road bridge connecting Russia and Crimea. She spent her final days in office monitoring the weather conditions, according to Mail Online, as wind speed and direction would determine whether radiation from a nuclear attack in Ukraine would have an impact in the UK.
On February 24, 2022, German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck stated that there were no prospects for launching the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the medium or short term due to the evolving situation with Russia. He emphasized the need for political efforts to de-escalate tensions and acknowledged potential short-term increases in gas and oil prices. Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that the situation required a reevaluation of energy security concerning Nord Stream 2, leading to a withdrawal of a prior analysis report, which is necessary for the pipeline's certification. Without certification, the pipeline cannot be launched.
Secretary Antony Blinken explained on February 24, 2022 on Twitter that "We worked closely with Germany to stop the Nord Steam 2 pipeline. Germany has been a leader on efforts to respond to Russian aggression and announced strong actions yesterday. Today, I am sanctioning Nord Stream 2 AG, its CEO, and its corporate officers."
After discussing with Scholz Boris Johnson was rallying on February 24, 2022 other European leaders to sever the dependence on Russian oil that has given Vladimir Putin a “grip” on Western politics in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. He also held talks with Jonas Store, the Prime Minister of Norway, which is one of the world’s biggest oil and gas exporters.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave a statement on February 24 2022 to the House of Commons on Ukraine. "Now we have a clear mission: diplomatically, politically, economically – and eventually, militarily – this hideous and barbaric venture of Vladimir Putin must end in failure."
He emphasizing the need for a unified response. "At the G7 meeting this afternoon, we agreed to work in unity to maximise the economic price that Putin will pay for his aggression. And this must include ending Europe’s collective dependence on Russian oil and gas that has served to empower Putin for too long."
Johnson welcomed Germany's decision to halt Nord Stream 2 and pushed the envelope further announcing the UK's largest-ever economic sanctions package against Russia. This included a full asset freeze on VTB and measures to exclude Russian banks from the UK financial system, highlighting the pressure from other nations like the USA together comprising half the global economy on a mere 2 percent represented by Russia.
The article "Germany suspends Nord Stream 2: Q&A on what happens next" on next day February 25, 2022 tries to answer some important wuestions as for example: "Those questions are: is Nord Stream 2 dead? Will Germany’s gas strategy change? How will it change the current official assessment of Germany and the EU’s security of supply? Can Nord Stream 2 AG sue Germany? Will Germany build its first LNG import terminal? What are the reactions from German and European Stakeholders?" (162)
THE CONFICT AND NUCLEAR THREATS
Zelensky's speech at Munich Security Conference from February 19, 2022 highlights issues connected to . "Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this. Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.
The address by the President of the Russian Federation from February 21, 2022 states that: "As we know, it has already been stated today that Ukraine intends to create its own nuclear weapons, and this is not just bragging. Ukraine has the nuclear technologies created back in the Soviet times and delivery vehicles for such weapons, including aircraft, as well as the Soviet-designed Tochka-U precision tactical missiles with a range of over 100 kilometres. But they can do more; it is only a matter of time. They have had the groundwork for this since the Soviet era.
In other words, acquiring tactical nuclear weapons will be much easier for Ukraine than for some other states I am not going to mention here, which are conducting such research, especially if Kiev receives foreign technological support. We cannot rule this out either."
The story of deployment of tactical nuclear weapons or usage of some kind of a dirty bomb by Ukraine, Russia or other hidden actor is possibly a big story to be studied by researchers if archives will ever be opened. There are some loose ends to be studied. (096)
Later on October 10, 2022 Former Director of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control analysis concludes that "Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine". He mentions that "Fears of Russian nuclear-weapon use are greatly exaggerated. We are likely no closer to a Russian first use of nuclear weapons than at the end of February despite the concerns raised by US President Joe Biden in his remarks on 6 October." (086)
Russia repeatedly warned that it is:“one of the most powerful nuclear states” and “there should be no doubt for anyone” that a direct attack on Russia would lead to defeat. Using nuclear weapons in Ukraine by Russia would increase resistance to Putin within Russia and galvanise global forces to punish him and his regime. If Putin is intent upon personal or national suicide, there are easier ways to do it than by using nuclear weapons given that there is little if anything to be gained by doing so.
This concluding statement hints that the rationale of some sort of a false flag in which Russia would be blamed is weak. Such step could also have possibly catastrophic consequences. It is known that once certain steps are reached on the escalation ladder the situation could became unstoppable. Was deployment of nuclear weapons by NATO countries masked as Ukrainian origin planned? Did some actors studied possibility of low grade dirty bomb explosions as a pretext to create a no-fly humanitarian zone? There is not enough evidence but some data point to that direction. (096)
COORDINATED RESPONSE
In the article from February 25, 2022 for The Telegraph, the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss explained that Britain will lead by example in standing up to Vladimir Putin. She explains that: "The Kremlin is leading the Russian people into a quagmire and turning Russia into a global pariah. This is the moment to take a hard-headed approach, which means being ready to accept short-term pain for long-term gain – in the knowledge that the pain felt by Putin will be exponentially higher."
The UK was among the first who was somehow worried what could stop of Russian exports do to the UK´s economy. On Februart 25, 2022 the UK government published "Russia-Ukraine and UK energy: factsheet, FAQs: Is the government confident that gas supply will not be disrupted?" In it it answered that that they studied the hypothetical case properly: "Yes. The current situation facing the UK is not a question of security of gas supply, but of high gas prices set by international markets."
The UK came to the conclusion that unlike other countries in Europe, the UK is in no way dependent on Russian gas supply. That the UK meets around half of our annual gas supply through domestic production and the vast majority of imports come from reliable suppliers such as Norway. This is a positive news for the UK because would there be disruption of Russian gas deliveries to Europe the position of UK vis-a-vis the Rest of Europe would relatively improve. This could help to boost competitiveness which was in decline due to relatively higher energy inputs after Brexit. (027)
This coordination with allies, particularly through the G7, was intended to create a united front against Russian aggression, leveraging economic, energy, and diplomatic tools to pressure Russia and support Ukraine.
26 Feb 2022 - RU: S&P cuts Russia to ‘junk’ as sanctions increase financial risks,
First Truss revealed on February 27, 2022her fears about western reliance on Russian energy supplies, saying: ‘Some European countries have 85% of their gas coming from Russia.
‘What we need to do is agree with our G7 counterparts to reduce that percentage over time.
‘I would support the idea of having ceilings on how much oil and gas is imported from Russia, so that over time we cut the dependency right across Europe. That is what we are working towards with our G7 partners.’
She went on: ‘The real objective is to degrade the Russian economy because what we know is Putin’s war machine is funded by revenues from oil and gas. So what we have to do is reduce dependency on oil and gas.’
‘We are currently in a situation effectively of war between Russia and Ukraine. We are now going to cut Russia out of the financial system … Of course, given the lies that Putin has told, we should say to his ambassador, leave the country.’
On February, 27 2022 - British foreign minister Liz Truss said she would press for further measures against Russia, particularly in cutting off their oil and gas supplies, at a meeting with her counterparts in the G7 group of rich nations. "The real objective is to degrade the Russian economy because what we know is Putin’s war machine is funded by revenues from oil and gas." (163)
Russia’s military “is funded by revenues from oil and gas, so what we have to do is reduce dependency on oil and gas,” Truss told Sky News
The question is whether to UK´s plan to blow up Nordstream pipelines was already being studied. Her approach could be interpreted as removing possible frictions points and road blockers to enable easier acceptance by allies. Was this a preparation to future action by reducing the impact of future Nordstream attacks of allies and on the energy markets? Similar actions by Truss and the UK could be noticed just before the event after she became the Prime minister. (042)
THE UK IS RATCHETING UP ITS GAME
Baroness Goldie February 25 2022 is quoted at Lords Chamber in "Volume 819" that "First, as announced by the Prime Minister yesterday, we are introducing a massive package of sanctions designed to constrict the Russian economy. We will end Europe’s collective dependence on Russian energy."
On February 27, 2022 Boris Johnson praised Ukrainians for “fighting heroically” and hinted that new measures to hit Russia’s financial system are ready. Liz Truss said the Foreign Office is preparing a “hit list” of oligarchs to sanction.
Note that if it will be proven that the rogue state actor, (214) the perpetrator was the UK, then these statements could be seen as significant part of evidence. They could also help to define "objectives" of the illegal act which could shift from Sabotage to a pre-planned Terrorist Act or Armed Attack (046).
The UK government was pushing the envelope further each time one more step.
They appealed on British companies to leave Russian market and asked them to divest. First on February 27 2022 BP announced it is Exiting from stake in Russia’s Rosneft. It was following pressure from U.K. government. The same happened on February 27, 2022 to BP which disclosed it is "Exiting Rosneft Stake and may take a $25 billion hit." One reason was to protect them against possible Russian asymmetric retaliatory actions.
Following day on February 28, 2022 BP and Shell state that they are leaving Russia. The Board of Shell plc announced February 28, 2022 that: "... it will “exit” its joint ventures with Gazprom and any related entities, including the NS2 project". Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden, has said "Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction. We cannot – and we will not – stand by". In another news on February 28, 2022 Shell proclaims that it exits will also include withdrawal from the Sakhalin-2 project.
Other companies seem to be pressured as well, news from February 28, 2022 reported that: "Shell’s exit from Gazprom intensifies pressure on Total and Exxon". In total most companies which left Russian markets were from the UK others were slow, hesitant including US gas and oil majors. many Western companies followed the trend. (040)
Liz Truss gave a statement to the House of Commons on what the UK government is doing to support Ukraine in the face of Russia's barbaric invasion as reported on February 28 2022. Quote from the statement: "...a united west – together with our friends around the world – and we’ve taken decisive action. Today we have acted with the US, EU, Japan and Canada to cut Russia’s Central Bank off from our markets. The rouble has fallen by over 40% as a result. As much as $250 billion has been wiped off the Russian stock market. And today their stock market has closed. The EU, Germany, Sweden and others are following our lead in providing defensive weapons to Ukraine. Germany has frozen Nord Stream 2. Putin has been confounded by our collective response. That’s why he’s resorting to more and more extreme rhetoric. Putin must lose.
We are doing everything we can to stop him, and to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We’ll do this by backing Ukraine against unjustified aggression; by degrading the Russian economy and stopping it funding Putin’s war machine; and by isolating Putin on the world stage... Secondly, we are cutting off funding for Putin’s war machine...
With over 50% of Russian trade denominated in dollars or sterling, our coordinated action with the United States will damage Russia’s ability to trade with the world. We will bring in a full asset freeze on all Russian banks in days, looking to coordinate with our allies. This same legislation will prevent the Russian state from raising debt here. And it will isolate all Russian companies – that’s over three million businesses – from accessing UK capital markets. Global giants like Gazprom will no longer be able to issue debt or equity in London. The second piece of legislation will ban exports to Russia across a range of critical sectors...
And we will keep ratcheting up our response... We will continue working with G7 allies to cut off the Russian economy and cut the free world’s dependence on Russian gas, depriving Putin of his key source of revenue."
The Truss statement was followed by another statement from February 28, 2022 on "UK´s Further Economic Sanctions Targeted at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation". The UK government, in collaboration with the Bank of England, has declared new economic sanctions against Russia's Central Bank (CBR) in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These measures, coordinated with the US and EU, aim to restrict the CBR's use of foreign reserves, thereby weakening its capacity to counteract existing sanctions and stabilize the rouble through foreign exchange transactions. The list of sanctions and restrictive measures was long and promised to do even more in future. "This is not the end. We are working in lock step with allies to go further and exclude Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system."
But how far the UK could go without hitting some resistance?
BRITISH MERCENARIES
The specific endorsements by UK officials in the context of the Ukraine conflict suggest a nuanced application of these law and this is exactly what happened. Direct participation of military personnel has been ruled out. The government's stance, as voiced by Liz Truss, suggests a tacit acceptance or at least non-opposition to such actions for this particular conflict.
The government's stance, as voiced by Liz Truss, suggests a tacit acceptance or at least non-opposition to such actions for this particular conflict. On February 25, 2022 Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has confirmed that "British troops will not be sent to Ukraine to fight Russia" Speaking to the BBC, Mr Wallace said Ukraine would instead be supported to "fight every street with every piece of equipment we can get to them".
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss countered on February 28 2022 that if British people travel to Ukraine as individuals then she: “Absolutely supports British citizens going to fight in Ukraine if that’s what they want to do.“ and that “Ukrainians are fighting for democracy for the whole of Europe.“
THE FOEIGN SECRETARY´S STATEMENT INCIDENT
At the end of February 2022, the crisis evolved significantly following comments made by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.
Initially, the world woke up on February 27, 2022 to Russian Channel One comment on Putin's instruction to place "deterrence forces" on high alert. "Let me add that this is the president's response to attempts to intimidate Russia, in particular to the words of UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who said that Russia was on the verge of war with Nato".
Then next day Truss’s remarks suggested a desire for regime change in Russia, stating that Western sanctions were aimed at toppling Putin's government.
This positioning was confirmed by a spokesperson for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who indicated on February 28, 2022 that the sanctions were intended to "bring down the Putin regime". This was covered widely, for example here: February 28, 2022 the headline quotes the statement: "The UK says sanctions against Russia over Ukraine invasion are meant to 'bring down the Putin regime".
Cross confirmation comes from Russia which also blamed on February 28, 2022 Liz Truss. The Kremlin has said that Vladimir Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert after comments by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Her threatening rhetoric prompted immediate strong reactions from Moscow, including President Putin’s command to raise the nuclear deterrent forces, which raised fears of a broader conflict. The chief spokesperson for the Russian president has said on February 28, 2022 that ‘I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary’.
Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces were on high alert in response to comments made by foreign secretary Liz Truss. The escalation ladder has been climbed one more time. ()
However, following backlash from the Kremlin, Johnson's office later on February 28 2022 tried to de-escalate clarifying that the UK was not pursuing regime change in Russia, indicating a response to the heightened tensions and the potential for misinterpretation of their intentions. Boris Johnson's official spokesman supposedly: 'mis-spoke' when he told journalists a package of sweeping sanctions was designed to 'bring down the Putin regime'.
Bornholm cable is damaged exactly nine months before the affair
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