CRIME SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION
Primary Suspect: The investigation identifies elements of the UK government as the primary suspect for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.
(to be added)
Events in chronological order grouped - JULY 2022
On July 1, 2022 UK´s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss met French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Paris. Following the NATO Summit in Madrid, the Foreign Secretary stressed the UK’s commitment to European security and noted the need for close cooperation with France to strengthen the NATO Alliance. The Foreign Secretary and Foreign Minister Colonna agreed that the G7 and NATO summits showed the UK and France are united in their response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The two agreed to build on the summits to maintain international unity in supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom and self-determination. (021)
On July 1, 2022 Final day of the NATO Summit in Madrid where Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP discussed regional security and the war in Ukraine with his Danish counterpart Morton Bødskov, @Forsvarsmin
On July 2, 2022 The Commander of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa, held an online meeting with the Commander of the Allied NATO Maritime Command, Vice Admiral Keith Blount (Royal Navy) (057)
Liz Truss on July 4, 2022: "UK supports idea of confiscating Russian assets and transferring them to Ukraine."
On July 4, 2022 U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss warns against easing pressure on Russia. The United Kingdom’s foreign secretary told attendees at a forum on NATO’s future it was crucial that Russia loses its invasion into Ukraine. Speaking a few hours before NATO begun its formal meeting in Madrid, Liz Truss warned against bargaining with Moscow for a false peace. “We have to defeat Russia first,” she said.
On July 4, 2022 UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to say 'UK will do everything possible to ensure Ukraine wins war'. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will tell the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Switzerland that the UK will support Ukraine for the "long haul" and resist Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion.
On July 5, 2022 German Ambassador to UK Miguel Berger visited NATO Maritime Command headquarters in Northwood UK where he met with MARCOM Commander Vice Admiral Keith Blount and deputy MARCOM Commander Vice Admiral Didier Piaton.
On July 7, 2022 NATO Maritime Command MARCOM: "Today 5th July GER Ambassador to UK Miguel Berger visited NATO Maritime Command headquarters in Northwood UK where he met with MARCOM Commander Vice Admiral Keith Blount and deputy MARCOM Commander Vice Admiral Didier Piaton."
Later on,... on July 14, 2022 NATO Joint Force Command Brunssum - JFCBS: @NATOJFCBS: Commander, @NATOJFCBS, General Guglielmo Luigi Miglietta welcomed today Commander @hqmncne Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart
NATO Special Operations Headquarters (NSHQ) Special Operations Component Command was declared fully operational at the 2014 Wales summit
SWITCH IN UK´S LEADERSHIP, NAVY BACKS PENNY MORDAUNT
ATLANTIC FUTURE FORUM, AFF (100, 128, 192)
Second Sea Lord, Martin J. Connell on July 7, 2022: "The Royal Navy is proud to be a part of Future Atlantic AFF22 with @HMSPWLS taking centre stage in NYC later this year. Delighted to be at the launch event this morning 🇬🇧 🇺🇸"
On July 7, 2022 PM Resignation: "One scandal too many: British PM Boris Johnson resigns"
On July 7, 2022 Chief of the Defence Staff Adm. Tony Radakin meets his UA counterpart in Ukraine. "My 48 hour visit allowed me to better understand the operational outlook and to discuss how the UK can continue to support Ukraine, and how we can help other international partners and allies assist the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the weeks and months ahead."
On July 9, 2022 Ben Wallace rules himself out of Tory leadership race.
On July 10, 2022 Penny Mordaunt will deliver the new economic vision that Britain needs.
On the sidenote, it is possible to speculate based on vast data that the UK has already decided to blow up Nordstream pipelines and "End the European dependence of Russian hydrocarbons" (107). Since the attack was a complex, long term goal, the plan had to be developed through time in incremental steps. It is assumed that it was integral part of Energy and Economic security policies of the perpetrator´s state. (027) In this light any proponents of new energy strategy are suspects even those who stepped down for undisclosed reasons.
CANADIAN SANCTIONS ON GAZPROM ARE PREVENTING RETURN OF TURBINES NEEDED FOR EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY (171)
The turbine saga with Nord Stream AG became a focal point for illustrating how sanctions, maintenance of critical infrastructure, and international politics can intertwine, affecting energy supply chains and diplomatic relations.
Since 2014 different sanctions were imposed against Nord Stream 2 AG and Russian oil and gas industry. Gradually they complicated the smooth functioning of non-sanctioned Nord Stream 1 AG long term deliveries. But the issues were not caused by sanctions but also by documentation needed for the return transit. Questions about reliability of Russian deliveries affected by political interference contributed later to $2.5 Trillion Margin Call on European energy utilities and need for bailouts in European major economies. This is how the crisis unfolded:
On July 7, 2022 German energy and economy minister Habeck calls on Canada to release the Nord Stream turbine
On 8 July 2022 Canada caught between allies as Germany presses for return of Russian turbine
Siemens Energy says sanctions still stand. There were reports from Berlin on Friday that Canada had decided already to accede to Germany's request.
CBC News asked a spokesperson for Siemens Energy Canada about those reports. "That's the first I've heard of it," said Ann Adair. "No change," she added. "We continue to stick to the sanctions."
Adair also said that merely delivering the turbine to Germany rather than to Gazprom would not be enough to get around the sanctions. She said Siemens would expect to see the matter dealt with through a formal sanctions exemption, justified on humanitarian grounds by Germany's energy needs.
Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Friday that "it's not simple and we have not made a decision, but we certainly are talking with our friends, Ukraine and Germany."
On July 8, 2022 After maintenance work: Canada wants to return Nord Stream 1 turbine
According to information from Reuters from government circles, the turbine will not be delivered directly to the Russian energy company Gazprom, but first to Germany. The background is that this makes it easier for the Canadian government to decide on extradition. The government in Ottawa feared violating Western sanctions imposed on Russia for attacking Ukraine.
Scholz suspects political motives behind the throttled gas supplies.
Russia wants to restart energy supplies through Nord Stream 1 if its repaired gas turbine returns from Canada. "If the turbine comes after the repair, then that will allow for an increase in volume," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the Interfax agency. "The only question is why it wasn't done that way." Peskov once again denied that Russia was using its gas as a means of exerting political pressure.
We completely reject any hints or direct reports that the Russian side is using gas or oil as a weapon for political pressure said Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman.
"Russia is fulfilling all obligations under the treaties." and
"Russia is most importantly able to ensure Europe's full energy security."
The throttling also caused Germany's largest importer of Russian natural gas, Uniper , to experience turbulence and called for state aid. The problems in the gas market could get worse. (026)
Minister of Natural Resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, announced on July 9, 2022 that: "Canada will grant a time-limited and revocable permit for Siemens Canada to allow the return of repaired Nordstream 1 turbines to Germany, supporting Europe’s ability to access reliable and affordable energy as they continue to transition away from Russian oil and gas. Absent a necessary supply of natural gas, the German economy will suffer very significant hardship and Germans themselves will be at risk of being unable to heat their homes as winter approaches".
The Canadian government announces on July 10, 2022 that it had issued a “time-limited and revocable permit” to exempt the return of turbines from its sanction regime
On July 10, 2022 Tass agency reports that "Germany’s Siemens said it wants to deliver a turbine for the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Canada to the site of operation as soon as possible after all the formalities are settled." There are issues with documents and certification because Canada delivered to Germany and not directly to customer, Russian Gazprom.
Politico reported on July 11, 2022 that the permit applies to six turbines
Statement by European Commission from July 11, 2022 "Canada’s decision to return Nord Stream turbine doesn’t breach anti-Russian sanctions"
YEARY PLANNED MAINTENANCE (173)
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (121)
Gazprom Announcement from 11-22 July 2022: PIM - Nordstream yearly check-up/maintenance works behind. "From 11 July to 21 July 2022, Nord Stream AG will temporarily shut down both lines of its gas pipeline system for annual routine maintenance works"
In compliance with Regulation (EU) Nr. 1227/2011 (Regulation on Wholesale Energy Market Integrity and Transparency – REMIT), as well as with Regulation (EC) No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council on conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks, European transmission system operators are required to publish a range of information.
This long term planned event, a 10 day long maintenance work, which includes internal and external check to assess integrity of pipelines is made usually by 3rd party companies. This is a requirement needed for yearly re-insurance. Note that sanctions against Nord Stream 2 AG and different types of companies (040) have complicated cooperation between Gazprom and foreign assayers. Note that this check could have high probability to revealed any planted explosives. Therefore the Seymour Hersh´s claim needs to explain how is it possible that explosives were not found one month after BALTOPS exercise which happened in 5-17 June 2022. (121)
This time between the end of Maintenance works (21 July 2022) and the day before Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed on 26th of September 2022 is the most probable "Window of Opportunity" for the perpetrator to plant explosives. Investigation should focus on events happening between these dates.
BORIS JOHNSON STEPS DOWN (002, 003, 163)
On July 11, 2022 Boris Johnson admits security lapse hours before stepping down. On 7 July a beleaguered Boris Johnson stood outside 10 Downing Street and grudgingly offered his resignation as prime minister. However, he made it clear he would remain in post until a successor is found. The day before Johnson’s reluctant resignation announcement, he faced interrogation by the Commons Liaison Committee on a number of matters. Johnson was forced to admit under questioning to a possible major security lapse involving Russian oligarchs. Subsequent to that admission, a former senior MI6 Russia specialist has called for an investigation into the alleged security failure and its implications.
On July 11, 2022 UK´s Royal Navy describes a small incident: Navy bomb disposal experts safely blew up an old torpedo in Scapa Flow which could have damaged underwater infrastructure.
A specialist team from the Royal Navy’s Diving and Threat Exploitation Group travelled to Orkney after survey ship MV Athena found the aged device while scanning a route for underwater cables between Flotta and South Ronaldsay.
The Coastguard was alerted to the device and a 100-metre exclusion zone set-up around the location, before the highly-trained Explosive Ordnance Disposal team from Charlie Squadron – previously the Northern Diving Group until a shake-up of all divers and the creation of the new Diving and Threat Exploitation Group.
“It was a challenging task,” said Charlie Squadron’s Chief Petty Officer (Diver) Roy Edwards. “The suspected ordnance was located 210 metres from an oil pipeline and the weather was also an issue with a sea state 2-3 and wind gusting at 20 knots.
“The torpedo was very degraded, and we needed to move it to a safe location, away from the pipeline, before it could be safely disposed of. It was a delicate job.”
The three-day operation was broken down into several phases. After diving, locating, and marking the torpedo, the team next attached straps and used underwater lifting equipment to raise it carefully to the surface. The torpedo was then towed some four kilometres to a new location well away from underwater cables, pipelines, and fish farms. Finally, just after 5pm on Sunday the divers carried out a controlled underwater explosion to dispose of the ordnance.
The task at Scapa Flow is the third which Charlie Squadron have attended on Orkney this year.
In total the team have tackled 63 conventional munitions disposal tasks and three improvised explosive device tasks throughout their area of operation.
On July 12, 2022 CNO, Commander of the Royal Netherlands Navy Discuss Partnership and NATO Alliance. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday met with the Commander of the Royal Netherlands Navy, Vice Adm. René Tas at the Pentagon for an office call.
NORD STREAM 2 & COURT "UNBUNDLING CASE" DECISSION
A TRIGGER? (015, 155, 128, 227, 228, 229)
The July 12, 2022 Judgment of the Court in Case C-348/20 P | Nord Stream 2 v Parliament and Council
The Court declares on July 12, 2022 the action brought by Nord Stream 2 AG against the directive extending certain rules of the internal market in natural gas to pipelines from third countries to be partially admissible
On July 13, 2022 EU court points to future resurrection of Russian gas pipe.
News describe the important ruling on July 12, 2022 "Gazprom’s Shunned Nord Stream 2 Wins Spat Over EU Pipeline Rules"
EU top court says gas project’s challenge is admissible.
Lower EU court will have to rule on substance of dispute
Russia’s shunned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won a legal boost in its pre-war challenge against European Union rules that subjected all new and existing pipelines involving foreign suppliers to the EU’s energy market-opening requirements, after the bloc’s top court said its appeal can be heard.
While the ruling is a win for Nord Stream 2, its impact may have been overtaken by events in Ukraine, which led Germany to withdraw its backing for the project.
In an important ruling from July 12, 2022 EU top court backs operator of shelved Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The operator of Nord Stream 2, a pipeline designed to double Russia's gas exports to Germany, won an appeal in the EU's top court on Tuesday after challenging European Union rules that require separate companies to build, operate and own pipelines. (The so called "Unbundling rule" - in which gas exporter and gas pipeline operator must be legally separate entities.)
On July 12, 2022 Gazprom’s Shunned Nord Stream 2 Wins Spat Over EU Pipeline Rules EU top court says gas project’s challenge is admissible. Lower EU court will have to rule on substance of dispute. Russia’s shunned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won a legal boost in its pre-war challenge against European Union rules that subjected all new and existing pipelines involving foreign suppliers to the EU’s energy market-opening requirements, after the bloc’s top court said its appeal can be heard. While the ruling is a win for Nord Stream 2, its impact may have been overtaken by events in Ukraine, which led Germany to withdraw its backing for the project.
RUSSIA BIGGEST THREAT FACED BY BRITAIN (010, 081, 105)
WHO WILL BE NEXT UK´S PRIME MINISTER? (106, 107, 054)
News from July 15, 2022 Liz Truss gains support from Frost, Braverman in race for UK prime minister
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has gained backing from former Brexit negotiator David Frost and British lawmaker Suella Braverman to become the next UK prime minister, British media reported on Thursday. Truss, who received 64 votes in the second round of the Conservative Party's leadership election on Thursday, pledged an "upward trajectory" for the economy by 2024, when the next national election would take place. Former finance minister Rishi Sunak topped with 101 votes, followed by junior trade minister Penny Mordaunt with 83.
Liz Truss on July 16, 2022: ‘I want the biggest change in economic policy for 30 years’. In her article, she wrote: “I am putting myself forward because I can lead, deliver and make the tough decisions. I have a clear vision of where we need to be, and the experience and resolve to get us there.”
“I will fight the election as a Conservative and govern as a Conservative. I will hit the ground running as prime minister, whether it is in ensuring (Russian President) Vladimir Putin loses in Ukraine or getting the economy going."
“Under my leadership, I would start cutting taxes from day one to take immediate action to help people deal with the cost of living,” she added.
On July 16, 2022 Liz Truss on her Twitter account: ‘I want the biggest change in economic policy for 30 years’
On July 17, 2022 UK's Defence Chief Tony Radakin Calls Russia 'biggest Threat' Faced By Britain: Reports. The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, said that the "challenge from Russia" will "endure way beyond 2022, 2023 and 2024."
On July 17, 2022 Liz Truss vows biggest change in economic policy in decades if she becomes PM
Boris Johnson gives on July 17, 2022 Churchill award to Ukraine's Zelenskyy. Mr Johnson has visited Ukraine twice since the invasion.
NORD STREAM 1, THE TURBINES DRAMA, AND INCOTERMS (171)
SANCTIONS ON NS2 EFFECT NS1
On 12 July 2022 Canadian media reports the permit allows Siemens to send turbines from Nord Stream to Siemens Canada’s plant in Montreal for regular repair and maintenance
Siemens confirmed on July 13, 2022 that only one turbine is currently in Montreal having undergone maintenance and that its goal is to transport it back to Russia ‘as quickly as possible‘
News from Canada from July 13, 2022 Cornered West yields in Turbine-Gate but conflict far from settled, risks aplenty for all.
“Siemens, which is our partner whereas the Canadian factory is not, brought the engine to the factory and is unable to get it back,” Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller told attendees of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last month.
“The only country that has imposed sanctions against Gazprom is Canada. Canada? We do not work in Canada. What does Canada have to do with it? Still, Canada has sanctioned Gazprom.”
On July 13, 2022 EU and US welcome Canada's decision to return Russian turbine to Germany
TASS (@tassagency_en) Twitter July 13, 2022 : One of turbines for the Nord Stream gas pipeline stuck in Montreal due to sanctions against Gazprom is now on its way to Europe and five more will be delivered to Canada within two years, for maintenance, The Globe and Mail newspaper said:
On July 14, 2022 Russian Gazprom says it cannot guarantee safe operation of Nord Stream 1 pipeline
The next day on 15 July 2022 Russian Foreign Ministry Implies Gas Will Flow thorough Nord Stream 1 Once Turbine Is Returned
Gazprom announced on July 15, 2022 it has requested Siemens to provide the documents necessary for transferring the turbine engine to Portovaya and to fulfill its obligations on repair and maintenance of gas turbine engines. In a statement, the energy giant said: “On 15th July Gazprom formally approached Siemens with a request to provide documents that, taking into account the current sanction regimes imposed by Canada and the EU, would be necessary for transferring back to Russia a gas turbine for the Portovaya CS, which is a facility of critical importance to the Nord Stream gas pipeline.”
On July 15, 2022 Testing time for Western powers as veil of uncertainty falls over Nord Stream gas deliveries. Scheduled return to Russia of a Nord Stream turbine underlines difficulties Western alliance faces in building unity against the Kremlin.
INCOTERMS AND RETROACTIVE PARTIAL FORCE MAJEURE (171, 026, 173)
On July 16, 2022 Russia's Gazprom says no sign of Nord Steam 1 turbine. Russian energy giant Gazprom says it has asked German engineering firm Siemens for the return of a turbine that was being fixed in Canada. There are fears state-owned Gazprom could use the opportunity to cut off gas. "On July 15, Gazprom submitted an official request to Siemens to obtain the documents... to allow the export of the gas turbine engine of the Portovaya station, a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline" the firm said in a statement. "Gazprom is counting on the Siemens Group to unconditionally fulfill its obligations with regard to servicing gas turbine engines on which depend the reliable operation of the Nord Stream pipeline and natural gas supply to European consumers," the company said on Saturday.
Russian media reports on July 18, 2022 the gas turbine has left Canada by plane for Germany, to be subsequently transported to Russia where it is expected to arrive around 24 July
Gazprom Claims on July 18, 2022 Force Majeure in Its Halt of Gas Deliveries to Europe. On Monday, Uniper SE, Germany’s biggest buyer of Russian gas, said it had received a letter from Gazprom that claims force majeure, a legal declaration that exempts the company from fulfilling contractual obligations because of circumstances outside its control. The notice was retroactive for past and current shortfalls in gas deliveries, the company said. “We consider this as unjustified and have formally rejected the force majeure claim,” Uniper said in a written statement.
On July 18, 2022 Reuters reports of Gazprom retroactively declaring force majeure on supplies from 14 June, in a letter dated 14 July, addressed to several European buyers including German companies Uniper and RWE. Uniper has reportedly challenged the claim of force majeure.
The next day on July 19, 2022 Vladimir Putin answered media questions. "So, first one of the routes in Ukraine was shut down, then Yamal-Europe was shut down, now Nord Stream 1, which is one of the main routes – we pump 55 billion cubic metres a year through it. There are five Siemens gas compressor stations working there, and one is on standby. One compressor had to be sent out for repairs. A repaired compressor was supposed to come from Canada, from the Siemens plant in Canada, to replace it. But it ended up under sanctions in Canada. So, one pumping station, just one piece of equipment was out of order because of scheduled maintenance work and it has not been returned from Canada. Now we are being told that the unit will be delivered from Canada soon, but Gazprom does not have any official documents yet. We must certainly obtain them, because this is our property, it is the property of Gazprom. Gazprom should receive not only the hardware, not only the gas pumping unit, but also the accompanying documents, both legal and technical documentation. We must be able to see what Gazprom is taking – the turbine’s current condition as well as its legal status, whether it is under sanctions or not, what we can do with it, or maybe they are taking it back tomorrow. But that is not all.
The problem is that at the end of July, on July 26, I think – we can ask Gazprom – another turbine should be sent for routine maintenance, for repairs. And where will we get a replacement from? We do not know... One more turbine is actually out of order because of some crumbling of its internal liner. Siemens has confirmed this. That leaves two operational units, which are pumping 60 million per day. So, if one more is delivered, fine, we will have two in operation. But if it is not, only one will be left, and it will pump only 30 million cubic meters per day."
France24 reports on June 20, 2022 that Dutch join Germany, Austria, in reverting to coal. Dutch climate and energy minister Rob Jetten announced that the Netherlands would remove all restrictions on the operation of coal-fired power stations until at least 2024 in response to Russia's refusal to export natural gas to the country.
Putin said on July 20, 2022 "EU lacking Russian gas? It should then launch Nord Stream 2" . Russian gas supplies to Europe could increase if Nord Stream 2 is finally authorised to operate, Putin told reporters during his visit in Iran, according to a Kremlin transcript of the conversation in Russian language. Germany's decision to power up its coal power plants came after Gazprom cut deliveries to Germany via the Nord Stream gas pipeline last week. The move, presented by Gazprom as a technical issue, has been criticised as "political" by Berlin.
On July 20, 2022 UK opens world’s first national clean-hydrogen subsidy scheme as it aims for 10GW by 2030.
On July 21, 2022 Nord Stream 1 pipeline resumes operation
UKRAINIAN DEBT PAYMENTS POSTPONEMENT (085)
20 July 2022 - UA/G7: International partners of Ukraine in the G7 and Paris Club announce suspension of debt service payments for Ukraine. On July 20, a group of creditors of Ukraine from G7 countries and Paris club members (the “Group of Creditors”) announced their intention to suspend principal and interest payments on bilateral debts from 1 August 2022 until the end of the year 2023, with the possibility to extend the suspension by an additional year.
Ukraine on July 20, 2022 seeks debt freeze as war ravages economy. Ukraine has asked its international creditors, including Western powers and the world's largest investment firms, to freeze its debt payments for two years so it can focus its dwindling financial resources on repelling Russia.
Facing an estimated 35% to 45% crash in GDP this year following Moscow's invasion in February, Ukraine's finance ministry said on Wednesday it was hoping to finalise the deferral on its roughly $20 billion of debt by Aug. 9. (085)
IS RUSSIA USING GAS AS AN ENERGY WEAPON? (103, 173, 174)
On July 21, 2022 the article "Energy war looms as Europe braces for Putin to reduce natural gas exports" discusses issues with energy and gas improrts from Russia. “Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon,”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday, adding Europe had to prepare for the worst.
Defending its record as a reliable supplier, Russia said the drop in capacity owed to technical problems that it blamed on sanctions. "Gazprom has fulfilled, is fulfilling and will fulfill all its obligations," Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a daily news briefing Thursday. "Any technological difficulties associated with this stem from the restrictions imposed by the European states themselves."
GB & GER (forced) COOPERATION? (026, 027)
First UK-Germany power link gets financial green light on July 21, 2022. A financial agreement was reached on Thursday to build the first power cable linking Britain and Germany, with construction set to begin later this year as the two countries work to reduce dependency on Russian gas and increase the use of green energy. (027)
On July 21, 2022 on the Twitter account CIR Bundeswehr @cirbw posts: "Welcome to #CIRBw, Deputy Commander @UKStratCom Lt Gen @tomcopsymes! It's a pleasure to have you at Cyber And Information Domain Service Headquarters. Let's strengthen our 🇬🇧🤝🇩🇪 cooperation in the #Cyberspace - #CyberDef is more important than ever!" /InspCIR (Chief #CIDS)
On July 22, 2022 on the Twitter account CIR Bundeswehr, @cirbw, #ICYMI: "Yesterday DComd @UKStratCom 🇬🇧 @tomcopsymes visited #CIRBw. He expressed: "Together with our German🇩🇪 counterparts we bring a powerful joint voice into @NATO and have the opportunity to help lead and shape activity in this modern domain."
On July 21, 2022 UK’s recent sanctions against Russia came into force. This latest round of sanctions impacts the oil, insurance, energy, gold and coal markets, as well as providing for certain restrictions on the provision of professional and business services to Russia. Whilst broadly looking to align themselves with existing EU sanctions, there are notable differences between how these UK sanctions will be applied which are now discussed within this update.
Impact on UK Insurance Sector
The restriction on providing financial services to oil and oil products has implications for the UK’s insurance sector, given that the definition of “financial services” includes the provision of insurance and reinsurance services (as defined under Section 61(1)(a) of the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act 2018).
As a result, from 31 December 2022, UK insurers will be prohibited from providing insurance services in respect of the import, acquisition and supply or delivery of the listed oil and oil products that originate in Russia or are located in Russia, that are destined for the UK.
Notably, however, there is no equivalent UK restriction to that of Article 3n of the EU Regulations.
Alignment with EU Oil Ban
There are subtle differences between the two jurisdictions’ restrictions. For example, the EU restrictions are limited to oil products under commodity codes 2709 00 (crude) and 2710 (other petroleum oils). Meanwhile, the UK sanctions include a significantly broader list, comprising products falling under commodity codes 2709 to 2715 (including petroleum gases and jelly), 2207 (ethyl alcohol) and 3826 (biodiesel oil).
Further, whilst the EU sanctions separate the wind-down periods for CN Code 2709 (crude, 5 December 2022) and CN Code 2710 (certain petroleum oils, 5 February 2023), the expansive list of oil and oil products under the UK restrictions are simply prohibited from 31 December 2022. Accordingly, under the UK rules, all transactions caught by the new restrictions described above must be concluded by 30 December 2022. The sanctions have been a major source of controversy, with some arguing that they represent an overreach of US, UK and EU power and others arguing that they are necessary to address concerns about the pipeline's potential impact on European energy security and geopolitical stability.
On 23 July 2022 Global Britain's very own Royal Navy Vice Admiral Keith Blount will lead the annual military exercise Dynamic Mongoose to further cement our global defence cooperation. Hosted annually in Norway with our allies (044)
UK's Liz Truss Asserts on July 24, 2022 "Putin 'holding Rest Of The World To Ransom Over Gas Prices"
"Who dares wins?" Boris Johnson visits on July 25, 2022 special forces troops days after donning camo to hang out with soldiers - as PM's allies press for him to be allowed to STAY on in No10 and minister says he would be 'comfortable if he returned to Government. Mr Johnson's spokesman would not say if he was visiting the Special Boat Service (SBS), based in Poole, or the Hereford Based Special Air Service (SAS)- whose motto is 'who dares wins'.
CUTTING OF FUNDING FOR PUTIN´S WAR MACHINE (031, 106, 107)
DID UK BROKE NPT? (096)
According to reports from July 25, 2022 the Royal Navy’s Special Boat Service taught the troops how to operate underwater vehicles. "Meet Elite British Commandos The SBS That ‘Helped’ Ukraine To Snatch Back Snake Island From Russia".
The vehicles, often called sea scooters or diver propulsion devices, are made to carry frogmen from a combat swimmer unit or naval Special Forces over great distances underwater. Diver Propulsion Vehicles are helpful for long journeys at a constant depth where navigation is easy. It allows the delivery of combat divers and their equipment over distances or at speeds that would be otherwise impracticable. It has been revealed that the Special Boat Service from Dorset traveled to the conflict-torn Ukraine to instruct the 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center there. According to a Sunday Mirror report, the 73rd became the sword’s tip and provided the fighting force that landed on the island. “The Ukrainian special forces are as fierce as they come, but they lack our specialized equipment and instruction,” the report said.
According to British media reports, the Ukrainian combat divers surveyed the coastline for explosives with assistance from the British Navy before signaling for the main force to attack the Russian position. The United Kingdom has undoubtedly been one of the most ardent supporters of Ukraine, supplying military and non-military aid in billions of dollars. However, the role of its Special Boat Service (SBS), now in the limelight, has proved to be the most decisive for Ukraine yet fatal for the Russians.
Liz Truss on June 26, 2022 her Twitter: "Today UK USA Can and Japan have led G7 allies with sanctions to ban the import of Russian gold - cutting off funding for Putin’s war machine and further isolating Russia from the international financial system."
News report from July 26, 2022 that: "Britain’s nuclear arsenal moves! Multiple warheads spotted being transported on major road"
[There are indirect clues that the UK possibly broke NPT, provided some material to Ukraine, and caused a situation which almost triggered nuclear escalation event in Ukraine, or over Black sea. This claim is weak but is mentioned as a possible real reason for Truss being dismissed. 096, 108, 113, 114]
Announcement from 27 July 2022 that Major General Gwyn Jenkins RM is to be appointed the new UK´s Vice Chief of the Defence Staff with effect from September 2022.
Ben Wallace backs Liz Truss on July 28, 2022. Ben Wallace, the most popular member of Boris Johnson’s cabinet has finally named his preferred candidate to be Britain’s next Prime Minister: Liz Truss. Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK’s national security adviser, says on July 28, 2022 backdoor channels have deteriorated. In a speech in Washington at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. He said he believed the deterioration of communication with China and Russia had created a higher risk of “rapid escalation to strategic conflict”.
UK INTEGRATED REVIEW - RUSSIA GREATEST THREAT TO EUROPEAN SECURITY (041, 113, 091, 045)
On July 28, 2022 The UK´s House of Commons Committee released a report, with recommendations to government: "The Integrated Review, Defence in a Competitive Age and the Defence and Security Industrial Strategy" (Second Report of Session 2022–23).MoD argues that the Integrated Review identified Russia as a threat and that the conclusions drawn have been reviewed but seem to be enduring. However, we have concerns that the MOD have not managed to assuage. In oral evidence in June 2021, the Secretary of State set out what he perceived to be the most significant threats: Russia, China, terrorism and Iran. In November 2021, the National Security Adviser also highlighted the threats posed by Russia, China and terrorism as significant, and added CBRN proliferation and the development of advanced military weaponry to that list.
On July 29, 2022 Defence Secretary Ben Wallace suggested that with energy prices “going up and up and up”, partly due to the war in Ukraine, Britain could follow the example set by European governments which have introduced a plan to save gas use by 15 per cent until next spring. "Families must look at how to cut energy use this winter", says Ben Wallace
On July 29, 2022 Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has revealed his support for cabinet colleague Liz Truss in the Tory leadership race. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace endorses 'authentic' and 'honest' Liz Truss in race for Number 10. Ben Wallace also took a swipe at Rishi Sunak and some of his supporters for quitting Boris Johnson's cabinet earlier this month.
The UK´s Defence is actively supporting government in achieving their goals.
After Nordstream on March 25, 2023 Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin said: "London's attempts to implement the concept of ‘Global Britain’ after leaving the European Union have failed" (044)
TURBINES INCIDENT, CONSEQUENCES AND SUMMARY (171, 173, 107)
On July 25, 2022 Gazprom informs that it has to halt the operation of one more gas turbine engine at the Portovaya compressor station of the Nord Stream gas pipeline due to the expiration of time before overhaul, the holding said in a statement.
On July 28, 2022 Russia reduced gas deliveries to Europe on Wednesday 27th of July. Gazprom has made cuts Nord Stream 1 gas to 20% capacity.
Russia announces on July 28, 2022 its Zircon Hypersonic Missiles Could Be Ready to Use Within Weeks. Russian military sources last week told the Tass news agency that tests of the 3M22 Zircon (Tsirkon) cruise missile had been completed and that it would be deployed to Russia's navy by the end of the year.
News from July 30, 2022 report that Russian gas producer Gazprom said on Saturday it had stopped supplying gas to EU member state Latvia, accusing it of violating purchase conditions for gas withdrawal.
Oxford Institut for Energy studies publishes on July 2022 "The Curious Incident of the Nord Stream Gas Turbine" in which it summarized: "While Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine and Belarus have been in (volatile) decline since September 2021, flows via both Nord Stream (and TurkStream) remained steady, with Nord Stream running at full capacity (167 mmcm/d). This changed on 14 June 2022 when Gazprom announced it was reducing the flow from 167 mmcm/d to 100 mmcm/d and on 16 June further down to 67 mmcm/d, justifying its actions by technical problems at Portovaya – a giant compressor station feeding Nord Stream with gas.
Gazprom’s announcement, resulting in Nord Stream flows dropping by more than half in just a few days, sent shockwaves through the European gas market given that Nord Stream running at full capacity was expected to help the EU meet its gas storage filling targets and avert gas rationing in winter 2022/23.
As Gazprom has not transferred displaced flows from Nord Stream to Ukraine (or any other) route – on which some capacity is available under 2019 transit agreement (although not the amount sufficient for full compensation) – and several European buyers have reported their flows being below nominations, it gave rise to renewed accusations of Russia using its ‘gas weapon’ against Europe. According to Reuters, on the same day as the turbine had reportedly left Canada – 14 July – Gazprom declared force majeure on its supplies, backdated to 14 June.
Gazprom may have decided to declare FM to protect its legal position (see Legal Analysis) while at the same time putting pressure on the West to create a sanctions-proof repair and maintenance process and prevent the Canadian permit from being revoked.
The legal structure surrounding the Portovaya CS and Nord Stream is quite complex. Portovaya CS is managed and operated by Gazprom. Nord Stream - the transporter – is a separate entity; Gazprom Export is probably the shipper on Nord Stream and also the seller of gas to European buyers.
It is important to note that an FM event does not mean that there will be no flows on the pipeline, only that the flows are lower than the capacity booked by shippers. Effectively it means “we can’t meet your nomination but will deliver as much as is technically feasible”.
In comments to reporters on 20 July, Russian President Putin stated that while currently two Nord Stream turbines are operational, one of them would have to be taken away for repairs before the end of July.30 Therefore he expects that if the turbine from Canada is not received in time for the restart of Nord Stream, then flows will drop to 30mmcm/d. He also stated that it is not sufficient for the turbine to be returned from Canada, it is also necessary for the legal documentation to be received stating that the turbine – and other turbines which may be received from Canada – are definitively not under sanctions. Putin’s comments did not suggest any possibility of substituting turbines from any other source.
With regards to the other two large turbines that were offline, (after the two operational and one as backup, plus the one in Canada), if they are only due minor maintenance which can be carried out in Russia, then they could be brought back into operation on July 21, potentially increasing the flows above the rates prior to the maintenance shutdown, but not back to full capacity. However, given the recent comments by President Putin above, if the remaining larger offline turbines need to be returned to Canada (plus the one operational one), Nord Stream flows could not exceed 30mmcm/d. Once the turbine from Canada (and all the attendant documentation) is received and fitted, Nord Stream would once again be running on two turbines. This could bring flows up to its pre-maintenance level of 67mmcm/d (40% of capacity). Preserving Nord Stream flow at 67mmcm/d and increasing it further, potentially to full capacity, would only be possible if more turbines are sent to Canada, serviced and returned – a process that could take months. (171)
002 - UK government does not like Nordstream
003 - Historical ROOTS of Nordstream affair
010 - Mackinder Roadblocks against Euro-Asian development & integration
014 - The UK chain of command toward SBS
015 - Have sanctions against Nordstream Insurers created Catch-22 situation?
021 - The UK and French relationship
026 - The $1.5 Trillion Margin Call on EU energy Utilities
027 - Mission accomplished - UK - from Energy Importer to Energy Exporter
085 - 14 Sept 2022: Statement by Group of Creditors of Ukraine
***
NEXT
(Part 9 - August - Draft for now)
***
